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S&P 500 E-Mini Futures

Market Forecast: The Week Ahead in ES, NQ, RTY, and 10 YRIn this video, I provide an in-depth market forecast for the week ahead in the ES (S&P 500 E-mini), NQ (Nasdaq E-mini), RTY (Russell 2000 Index), and 10 YR (10-Year Treasury Note) markets. I am using a few key technical indicators and market trends to give you valuable insights into potential price movements and trading opportunities. Indicators used in this video are Bollinger Bands (20,3), Beacon Indicator, Anchored VWAP's, and the 5 day Simple Moving Average.
CME_MINI:RTY1!
by anthonycrudele
Whoever Wins the 2024 Election May Have a Difficult PresidencyDISCLAIMER: THIS IS A VERY LONG READ . Monday is Presidents Day. In America, this is a day we honor 46 individuals who have held that office both past and present. Ask anyone who keeps up with current news and events, and they will agree, America is a politically divided nation. The vitriol, one political party has for the other, seems like it’s never been this bad; ( and ) the language used today seems more abusive. Nowadays, It’s common to be out and to see bumper stickers, t-shirts and roadside bill boards that use the most vulgar phrases to describe the opposition. America appears to have descended to a place in civilized society where it is perfectly acceptable to label someone with opposing political views, a traitor. History tells us, partisan polarization has always been a cultural feature of America. We forget the 1828 Presidential elections termed the phrase “ Mudslinging ”, and saw the collapse of The Federalist Party, which ushered in Jacksonian Democracy. That was the first election cycle where in campaign insults and salacious innuendo was personalized among the candidates. I’m sure American society in the early 19th century uttered a collective “ oh my! ”, just like we’re all uttering today. Back then slogans and platforms mention that election was “… for the very Soul of our Country ”. Sound familiar? I’ve traded energy futures for the past 30 years. Except for world war, I’ve seen it all. I was active in the markets on the day when crude oil futures went -$31 dollars (That’s negative $31 dollars). I’ve been an active trader during every geo-political disagreement, conflict, economic crisis (Greece, 2008 Great Financial Crisis), political assassinations, etc., of the last 30 years…and although I never thought possible, a global pandemic to properly bookend my career. So, when I see a bumper sticker that says “ High Gas Prices? Thanks Biden! ” I chuckle. The average citizen doesn’t understand that the US President has very little to do with the price of gas at the pump. Now before the hateful comments come, sure, the policies of any administration can affect prices over short periods of time and cause volatility, but the trends that govern energy prices over the intermediate and longer term, has more to do with supply and demand, and the economies of extraction and refining, than anything else a US President can do in the short term. Never accused of being lax, the more than capable energy lobby sees to that. “ Drill Baby Drill ” is mantra to insinuate that to bring prices down, we must drill more, and somehow a Presidential administration is dropping the "Lower Prices" ball. However, leases to acquire energy natural resources on Federal lands are plentiful, and most would be surprised, that a lot of active leases are actually dormant . Capitalism moderates this, Presidents ...very little. We already “Drill Baby Drill” and have done so for the past 20 years. We have the current infrastructure and capacity to extract and refine more oil and gas than any nation on earth. It’s largely the economics of extracting and refining is what dictates production, which in turn, dictates price. Currently, the price of natural gas is approaching historic all-time lows. Nonetheless, (and I do not want to interjet politics) but I have yet to see a bumper sticker that says "LOW GAS PRICES? THANKS BIDEN" . I suspect gas rigs will be coming OFF line in droves as the weeks and months progress, despite what the US President wants , unless the administration decides to increase exports to allied nations. However, even that would only nominally affect short term prices, because the companies extracting the gas have to have the adequate number of rigs online. It truly is a complicated balance as to what constitutes the prices we pay, and to a lesser extent, who is the President. So, as a seasoned trader I regard the election, and current political divisions as, important as a citizen , but as a trader, not so much . To me it’s back ground chatter in the overall larger cyclical conversation we should be having...but are not. However, this article is not about politics, or ideological differences in the US. It’s not about US policy, nor which party is worst for the… “ Soul of our Country ”. It’s about economic cycles, and how THOSE cycles could place the next US President is a very challenging position. I’ll start with visual on the main chart above. These men we honor on President’s Day have largely been along for the cyclical ride. Each of them presiding over different outcomes. Each of them being judged, rightly or wrongly , solely based on good or bad cyclical timing. Cycles are a normal occurrence in all economies. Regardless of the country, they reflect societies consumption and contraction and they are affected by first and foremost quality and duration of life. Societies with the highest quality of life will consume more. While in contrast, those that have low qualities of life will contract and consume less. Next is increased efficiencies through technology, advances in communication, medicine, and construction. Quality and duration of life are more so related to the political and governing structure of the country. When those are comparatively rigid with power residing at the top as compared to other countries, advances in communication and socialization, medicine, and construction lag and can have outsized affects on the business and economic cycles causing large variances and outsized swings. In America, we freak out about inflation as it has recently vacillated between 9% down to 3%...and rightfully so. Now imagine being a citizen of Turkey and having to endure 61% inflation in 2023 . However, the US, being a mature and stable government, these economic cycles are on a more digestible and palatable timeline and the ensuing variances between the extremes are manageable as compared to those of emerging economies, and fledgling governing authorities. Therefore, if the intermediate and shorter terms cycles that govern economic expansion and contraction, are to converge with the longer-term cycles that have more to do with society and are governed more so by political governance and quality of life, how does that play out in real terms? Does a construct exist for determining if a negative long and short cycle will converge? I practice a form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave. Before you think I’m going to tell you, the construct for predicting this cyclical phase is me, and my ability to be somehow be divinely ordained to make such a bold call based on my expertise in Elliott Wave… your wrong . No one can say with an accurate degree of certainty when or if this will ever come to pass. We have historical results on cycles that say such an event would be perfectly normal and on a cyclical time horizon, we're due for one. To me, is somewhat comparative to the geologists who forecast the Yellowstone caldera will erupt tomorrow, or in the next 10,000 years. In the same mindset, data sets suggest its totally reasonable to make the case that the period of the next US president (which is 4 to 8 years) could be such a period as detailed in the above chart. What I can say is Elliott Wave does provide a highly successful methodology based on rules and guidelines, that can offer some intriguing information that can make a more than reasonable case for a cyclical downturn, and forecast the magnitude of it… but not when . However, it's not my intention to educate you on Elliott Wave analysis. I do want to focus on one guideline in particular within this discipline. It's called the theory of alternation. Simply put, it states that if wave 2 (BLUE (II) ON ABOVE CHART) is shallow, or short in timeframe...then the wave 4 (BLUE (IV) ON THE ABOVE CHART) will be deep, and or long in duration, and thereby alternating. I have labeled the above chart taking alternation into account. However, my intention this morning is to call attention to the events that were present during wave (II) and if those events can tell us anything about wave (IV) as a cycle, the timing and magnitude, and more specifically, do the events alternate as well . Wave (II) consisted of the following events in chronological order. (1) Free Banking Era, (2) WW1, (3) Spanish Flu of 1918, which was moderated by sheltering in place and when those socialisation curbs were lifted, led to the expansion of the roaring 1920's which led to (4) 1929 stock market crash (5) Great depression (6) and culminated in The Glass Steagall act passing as a provision of The Banking Act of 1935 effectively ending the Free Banking Era and limiting what commercial and investment banks can do with respect to public money and taking risks. Today, we know that (1) Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, which ushered in a sort of new FREE banking era, which caused the financial crisis of 2008 because banks did exactly what that repealed legislation was designed to prevent (3) Society then endured another variant of the 1918 Spanish Flu in 2020 called COVID-19 which caused us to shelter in place, which affected the global supply chain and has led to a large economic expansion that most economist are baffled to this day by the length and degree in which it has endured. Making this current time period very reminiscent of the roaring 1920’s. It seems the comparative events are similar but the chronological occurrences seem to be alternating as well. Except one. NO STOCK MARKET CRASH. Is this just the last missing event in an alternation that has been decades in the making? I obviously can't say. What I can say, whoever wins the 2024 President Election may not have an easy go of it. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
S&P500: Last pump before a correction.S&P500 is on healthy bullish technicals both on the 4H (RSI = 63.806, MACD = 7.990, ADX = 31.789) as well as the 1D (RSI = 64.592) timeframes as it keeps rising inside a six week Channel Up. According to the last HH wave we are expecting a top on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. If that's coupled with the 4H RSI hitting the top of its Rectangle, we will short the market at that level and target the Channel's bottom and the S1 level (TP = 4,920). As long as the 4H MA200 holds, it will be a buy entry. If crossed, then the bullish pattern is negated and we will short again, aiming for the S3 level (TP = 4,715) and a potential contact with the 1D MA100. It will be almost a -8.00% correction, a healthy pullback on the 1D scale. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
3
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring. The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape. Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations. Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft. While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster. Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday. Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL . Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors. Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%. Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before. The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch. 3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets. 50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Pandorra
S&P500 +10year cheatsheet tells you what to do next!On this analysis we look into the S&P500 index (SPX) from a very long-term angle, the 1W time-frame going back more than 13 years, since November 2010. That was when the first Megaphone pattern emerged since the 2009 market bottom of the U.S. Housing (sub-prime) crisis that after testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) it found Support and transitioned into a Channel Up. This is a similar pattern that we are at since the previous 2021 market All Time High (ATH) that led to the 2022 Inflation Bear Cycle. In fact since 2009 there have been (including 2022) 4 such cyclical patterns in total and another common characteristic has been that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has been the Support throughout the uptrend. In our recent pattern, that was tested in October 2023, held, and gave rise to the enormous November - February rally. That turned the 1W RSI overbought above 70.00 for the first time since July 24 2023, which caused the 3-month pull-back. In fact, when the 1W RSI broke that high into overbought territory during the previous 3 Cycles, SPX at best consolidated if not pull-back for 4-6 weeks. In any case, this +10 year 'Cheatsheet' is telling you that as long as the 1W MA50 holds (which is considerably lower), the next 4 weeks at least are a buy opportunity, at least once the index hits the 1D MA50 again. And of course the upside, in a year of expected rate cuts and U.S. Presidential elections, is significant not just purely from a technical point of view. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
3
S&P500: Time to turn back 🔄For the S&P 500, we are primarily assuming that the sideways phase will initially resolve itself to the downside. In the further sequence, the correction should continue into the magenta Target Zone (coordinates: 4540 - 4300 points). Within this zone we then locate the low of the turquoise wave (ii), which should mark a change of direction. In the context of our alternative scenario, on the other hand, we still consider it 25% likely that the wave Alt.(i) in turquoise will make another new high above the aforementioned 4997-point mark. Either way, however, we expect a setback afterwards, which should offer the opportunity to enter long positions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarketIntel
VIX showing that tension is expected soon in the stock markets.When we looked at the Volatility Index (VIX) on our November 07 2023 analysis (see chart below) we compared it with the S&P500 index (SPX) : The S&P500 has reached the top of its Channel Up, while the VIX bottomed and is consolidating on a price action that is very similar to the July 27 2023 Low, which was the former Higher High of the S&P500 Channel Up. Today we plot both VIX and the S&P500 on the same chart and not side by side. As you can see VIX's 1D RSI has bottomed and is rising within a Bullish Megaphone, indicating that the price has already bottomed, which is a Lower Low on the Channel Down pattern it has been trading within since the September 28 2022 High (which has also been the start of the 2023 recovery year for the stock markets). The SPX is illustrated by the thin black trend-line and being negatively correlated in nature, when VIX declined within this Channel, the stocks rose and vice versa. Since October 23 2023, VIX started to decline again and that sparked the stock rise which is holding up to this day. VIX's bottom and rise though above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) within the Bullish Megaphone we just mentioned above, is an indication that the SPX has topped, similar to the February 02 2023 and July 27 2023 Highs, which where Lows for VIX's Channel Down. The chart clearly shows that VIX has just started its own (dashed) Bullish Megaphone (has always done so a little after the RSI Bullish Megaphone) and that was been the start of the S&P500 decline during the Higher Highs we mentioned. As a result, we expect VIX's volatility to apply high pressure on the stock market in the next 4-6 weeks, which should technically bottom and turn into a buy opportunity again only after VIX closes a 1D candle below both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as it did on November 02 and March 28 2023. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIX
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 Bearish Divergence on 1D RSI points to a correction.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom. This development is a strong sell signal on its own but it gets even stronger as the 1D RSI has been within a Channel Down since December 19, while the price was rising within a Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. The very same Bearish Divergence that led to the July 27 2023 Higher High and was followed by a 3-month almost -11.00% correction. The first wave of that correction was -5.84% and has been the minimum correction range in 2023, settling just above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result that minimum will be our target and its at 4700, as we may see a bullish reaction going closer to the mid-March Fed Rate Decision (in expectations of rate cuts). Technically though, we can see a longer correctional wave to -9.26% (like the Bearish Leg that bottomed on March 13 2023) that could test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), or even almost -11.00% (like the one that bottomed on October 27 2023). Notice how each of those potential correction targets are conveniently placed around key Support or Fibonacci retracement levels. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingShot
2
S&P500: Channel Up topped. Correction possible.S&P500 is only a few points away from hitting the HL trendline of the long term Channel Up (started on the October 13 2022 Low). That would be the second time to test the patterns absolute Top. The 1D technical outlook is on standard bullish levels (RSI = 67.767, MACD = 49.570, ADX = 38.770) but the 1D RSI in particular has formed the very same pattern it did during the July 2022, January 2023 and December 2022 Channel Up Highs. Consequently we have all the technical evidence we need for a 1 month at least short. The first Support is the 1D MA50 but in order to keep the long term uptrend on sustainable levels, it would be better to approach the 1D MA200. We expect the pullback to almost hit the 1D MA200 and touch at least the 0.382 Fibonacci of the Channel (TP = 4,600). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
AmazonSmile. You shop. And... Amazon Still Gives 😊 Amazon stocks are going up this year with solid 52.29% year-to-date gain, that is currently the 9th largest YTD result over all components of Nasdaq-100 ( NASDAQ:NDX ) index. Work hard, Have fun, Make history - And You're Done! - This is the official tagline of Amazon in 2023. The slogan refers to Amazon’s dedication to innovation and service enhancement. As can be seen, Amazon tagline 2023 is separated by three ideologies. Have Fun There is a saying that goes You gotta do what you love to love what you do, and I believe it much applies to this ideology – to have fun. The key to having fun at work is creativity and innovation. Bezos makes room for mistakes, as long as they lead to something positive. You know what they say, learn from your mistakes and be better. To have fun is to think beyond the boundaries with a powerful imagination. Make History As of June 22, 2023, Jeff Bezos is the third richest person in the world, with a net worth of $149 billion, according to Bloomberg Billionaire Index data . Amazon proudly contributes to Bezos’ success, being the most successful retailer company in the U.S.A. Despite such accomplishments, the business still strives to develop bigger by the day. From A To Z You can still see a smile formed right under Amazon’s logo; it represents the range of products and services available on the platform. The smile also symbolizes consumers’ happiness when they find what they need within just a few clicks. Of course, in Trader's terms a market smile also means V-shaped recovery, that is currently observed due to massive Reversed Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern structure breakout. Overall Amazon stocks still are on the positive path, following the All-the-history support of 10-years simple moving average.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Pandorra
16
Trends heading into the FOMC Rate DecisionOverheated market trends showing a bull market is basically my findings. I have not held into positions, long or short, going into this last surge. I had a relatively promising month in January and decided I would just end it on that note. Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4933 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 2Hr - 4925 Downtrend (1/31/2024) Higher Low 3Hr - 4954 Uptrend (1/29/2024) Higher High 4Hr - 4829 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4848 Uptrend (1/19/2024) Higher High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High As explained, that 30m is showing the first sign of weakness for this surge to come back at all. Additionally, I read a report with Dow Jones Newswires that most of the insider trading lately has been little to no buying and lots of selling. Basically that means that members with stocks in their own companies are taking profits and not investing further into their company. I wouldn't take this as a sign that they think their company is in trouble, but more as a sign that they feel their stocks are overvalued and it is profitable to sell now and repurchase later. Economic Data today is going to the FED Meeting Minutes and the subsequent statement by Jerome Powell. I don't foresee, nor does the market, of any interest rate movement today. Geopolitical tensions continue to worsen in the Middle East. The latest is a Drone strike in Jordan that killed 3 US Servicemembers. I've been very surprised that the market has not priced in any sort of issues coming from the Israel/Hamas conflict or any of the tensions and skirmish fighting in the surrounding area. Overall, I see a huge threat to potential inflationary pressure disrupting this upward movement in the long term. Not some sort of pressure that would take us to a surge in inflation back to 9% like we were, but certainly not allowing us to reach a 2% target rate and having some minor upward movement instead of continuing the downtrend we have seen over the last year. Overall, my sentiment is fairly neutral. While I had held a bullish sentiment with spots of bearish profit taking before, I see overall a neutral movement from here, as my estimate for our top over this year was to be 5000 and we've almost reached that already.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
BTC VS NDX. FOLLOWING THE BEARISH SCENARIOPreviously in the Series.. 👉 Launch of BTC futures on December 18, 2017 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year. 👉 Launch of trading on Coinbase IPO NASDAQ:COIN on April 14, 2021 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent for the week and crashed 50+ percent for the quarter. 👉 Launch of AMEX:BITO - the first fund based on BTC futures, on October 19, 2021 Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year. 👉 Launch of ̶G̶i̶p̶s̶y̶ ̶C̶a̶m̶p̶ 11 ETFs on BTC, incl. on BTC spot, on January 11, 2024. Bitcoin has slumped by more than 10 percent in a week and further losing its shores. The main technical graph is a ratio between Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Index. Indeed, BTC underperforms against NDX, almost for a 3 years in a row.. But blind faith is ineradicable.. Who knows, what BTC halving has to say.. The truth is One and Only - just trend is your real friend ! 😄
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Pandorra
👋 Alphabet Inc (Google) — Bear Trap EscapeAmerican company Alphabet Inc. two days before has published a quartrely statement and announced an increase in net profit and revenue in the second quarter ended in June. In addition, the company said its chief financial officer, Ruth Porat, will take over as president and chief investment officer of Alphabet and Google from September 1, 2023. At the same time, Porat will temporarily remain as CFO of Alphabet and Google until her successor is found. The company reported net income of $18.4 billion, or $1.44 per share, compared to $16 billion, or $1.21 per share, a year earlier. Revenue, meanwhile, rose from $69.7 billion a year earlier to $74.6 billion, also above the market's forecast of $62.06 billion. Cloud revenue was up 28% year-over-year. Comments by Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet and Google: “Our products and company performed well this quarter. Our continued leadership in artificial intelligence and our excellence in engineering and innovation are driving the next evolution of Search and improving all of our services. With 15 products serving half a billion people each, and 6 of them serving more than two billion people, we have a lot of opportunities.” Comments by Ruth Porat, Chief Financial Officer of Alphabet and Google: “Our financial results reflect continued resilience in search with accelerating revenue growth in both search and YouTube, as well as momentum in the cloud. We continue to invest for growth while prioritizing our efforts to long-term reorganize our company-wide cost base and build the capacity to deliver sustainable value over the long term.” As announced on April 20, 2023, the Company has merged part of Google Research (the Brain team) and DeepMind to significantly accelerate advances in artificial intelligence (AI). A group called Google DeepMind is reflected in Alphabet's unallocated corporate expenses starting in the second quarter of 2023. Shares of Google rose more than 6 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, with a lot of room for further gains. Technical pictures indicates that major breakout of $125 resistance is happening right now, hitching the price above the neckline in reversed Head and Shoulders chart pattern structure.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by Pandorra
2
SPY SHORT ( UPDATE FROM JAN 24,2024 )**Hello all, Im here to add some insights to the trading view community. I run options and stock programs out of trading view which give intraday bull and bear probabilities and support and resistance levels based on options chain data Looking at SPY, I see a Support level at 485 and the open interest difference between calls and puts are the highest there ( over 5000 ). Resistance at 487 and 488. Im looking to enter a short now with 490 SL. Target is sub 480 if bears push it over Based on my program which does seasonal analysis, SPY is bearish for the next 10 days. Feb month is where the big bear comes seasonally. Ai forecast also looks bearish. Not a place to go long. We Trade algo is applied on the chart** We posted the above idea initially on the 24th of january when SPY was close to 489 but the idea got hidden. The short/ put trade we entered at 488 level paid 80% and closed at 485 level. Watching for another short opportunity. Out of all longs for now
AMEX:SPYShort
by tradesenigma454
New Highs should make things clearer, but not Easier!It's been a while since I updated followers on the SP/ES. I recently moved my daughter to Spain after graduating from college...so my wife and I are really just getting used to an empty house. Nonetheless, let's get into it. First and foremost, the primary circle B wave will be taken off the chart, and that clears things up for us. Why does it clear things up? New Highs leaves up with no current down side set ups...so essentially we should get continuation higher in a completion of our Ending Diagonal. I want address a question several followers had previously asked and in doing so, should aid me in my communicating my forecast. Question: Why isn't this pattern off the October 2022 lows a leading diagonal in wave 1, versus wave 5 like you're counting it? Because this pattern overlapped as indicated on the chart it cannot be counted as an impulsive pattern. Sure price has moved higher and we're now at new all time highs. I am counting it as a motive wave, but as an Ending Diagonal. The argument seems academic at this point because price has retraced all the declines from January 2022. I continue to think there is merit in classifying the pattern correctly...but only the decline will prove me right or wrong. Additionally, some have argued with me for a year or more, that this move off the October 2022 could be a leading diagonal. I have shared my views on leading diagonals quite extensively. Many may disagree. I don't believe leading diagonals are a pattern. I will spare you the context again...but if you are interested, I suggest researching LD's. You'll find that the Elliott Wave community at large is wishy-washy on the subject. Nonetheless, if my analysis is correct and we are completing an ending diagonal, or about to, the price reversal will be swift. As of today, I am torn with this being the a-wave of a 3 wave 5 of V of (III) or all of 5. With so many of the key stocks I track that make up a large percentage of the index in their respective wave 5's. I think we'll find out soon enough.
SP:SPX
by maikisch
1
Trends heading into a conflict area; Other factors in reviewSo I chose to cash out my trade at 4760 for about $2250. Trends have a huge case to send us lower, especially if the 6hour keeps signaling lower. All the trends between 30m and 4hr are ALL in a lower low downtrend at the moment. The trends are as follows; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 4778 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 4761 Downtrend (1/17/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 4790 Downtrend (1/11/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 4777 Downtrend (1/8/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 4797 Uptrend (1/8/2024) Higher High 12Hr - 4762 Downtrend (1/3/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High **Note - The 1hr was signaling during the video, it did solidify since so I included the updated in this brief. That will put the 30m to 6hr downtrends against the 12hr violated uptrend, and pending daily higher low uptrend as well once it signals. As I explain in the video, I see the potential of a conflict zone here, and given my significant profit for the month already, I will likely look elsewhere for additional trades for the moment. Other things to look at- Earnings; We are in Earnings season. Mostly banks this week. They have been mixed overall. Next week is a much bigger week with Microsoft, Netflix, Tesla, and more reporting. To note, there has not been a negative earnings season overall yet recently, even during the bear market of 2022 into 2023. Economic Data; Fed Waller spoke about small and few rate cuts, that the market is overly optimistic in the view of how many cuts they expect, and the retail sales data today supports the FOMC ability to choose not to cut rates until they feel very confident inflation is down and will stay that way. Geopolitical; Tension in the Middle East continues to rise, so I'd keep having an eye on that. If oil prices surge (they haven't, in spite of attempts by OPEC to make them and general sentiment they will) that will bleed back into inflationary pressure. My overall sentiment; Shorter Term - Neutral Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/slight bullish Long Term - Bullish My ZM contracts were stopped out today unfortunately, as I picked up December contracts that didn't nearly pop up like the other ZM contracts of 2024, so I am on the hunt for other potential investments for the moment. Many of those are currency exchanges such as 6J, 6A, and potentially the 6E again if it drops a bit more. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader