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9/11 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanIMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely. Recap Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red days. It began with the key support at 4493 cracking on Wednesday, triggering shorts for a 2-day flush. However, by last Friday, we saw the first post-selloff relief rally of about 40 points. The relief bounce was anticipated, with an entry at 4448 provided for it. This played out well, with a run to 4466-73 overnight on Thursday, followed by a dip, and then a rally on Friday morning. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mostly up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Down World News US dollar slides as BoJ Governor Ueda hints Japan may end negative interest rates before the end of the year. Key Structures The first week of September, known for its volatility, bearishness, and difficulty, lived up to its reputation. With CPI, FOMC, and regular September noise still ahead, the volatility is far from over. Notably, a large triangle has formed, with the 4448 level being support and resistance being 4572. This is now the core pattern for September and everything between 4448-4572 is a broad chop range for ES. Support Levels Supports for the ES are at: 4504, 4498-96 (major), 4486, 4473 (major), 4463-66, 4449 (major), 4434, 4424, 4418 (major), 4395-4400 (major), 4386, 4367, 4356 (major), 4337 (major), 4316, 4307, 4285-90 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4516, 4524 (major), 4528, 4535 (major), 4545, 4554-56 (major), 4563, 4572-74 (major), 4580, 4590, 4595 (major), 4602, 4608, 4620-22, 4627 (major), 4633, 4644 (major). Trading Plan The bull case is in play as long as the 4498-96 support holds. If it holds, the relief rally remains in play, with a return to 4524, perhaps a dip, then push up the levels to 4535, then probably 4554-56. The bear case begins on the fail of 4496. If we return back down there and there is no demand, the move would be to short 4483 for a move down the levels. Wrap Up In summary, September trading is proving to be as difficult, choppy, and volatile as expected. The key is not to predict where the price will go, but to take it level to level. As long as 4496-98 holds, we can expect to "fill out" the yellow triangle, with a pop to 4524, perhaps one more dip, then a push to 4535, 4554-56. However, should 4496 fail, we start down direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week. Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300. Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560. We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful. Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
SP:SPX
by DarkpoolGhost
9/8 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August rally. Market Outlook: Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down World News G20 Leaders Summit this weekend in New Delhi. Key Structures The big picture structures/levels relevant for today include 4485-90, 4466, 4448, and 4416. These are not comprehensive, nor are they predictive. Support Levels The support levels for today are: 4448-50(major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4410-15 (major), 4402, 4390 (major), 4383 (major), 4377, 4356-58, 4348 (major), 4339, 4326-30 (major), 4317, 4311 (major), and 4293 (major). Resistance Levels Resistance levels are: 4456, 4466 (major), 4473, 4485-90 (major), 4496, 4509-05 (major), 4517 (major), 4523, 4532, 4537-40 (major), 4547, 4558, 4565, 4575-80 (major), 4592, 4597 (major), 4607-11, and 4624 (major). Trading Plan This relief bounce is in play direct as long as 4448-50 continues holding. The bear case is the loss of 4448. If that happens, bulls will want to see it recover fast. If it can’t and demand is clearly absent, I’d be looking to get short 4438 for a move down to 4424. Wrap Up Today is the final day on September contracts and the final day you will be seeing these levels. My general lean is that we can continue to defend 4448-50, then try a relief bounce to 4466-73, possible dip, then up to 4485-4500. If 4448 fails, its a warning that we need another leg lower to 4424 at least. These are very complex conditions - trade light and trade seldomly. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
ES Futures Volume Teardown Vs. Cyclical Elliot Wave CountI recently noted that my cyclical Elliot Wave count coincides with the significant volume areas on a volume profile for the ES! futures contract (S&P500). So, from the top: 1. is the recent volume high. An influx of volume into the market that has driven the nasty corrective grind since the ultimate top. 2. is the value area high as calculated by the volume profile extension. This is where the 2017 highs were found and there was a lengthy sidwards ABCDE correction which I believe to have been a Wave 4 in hindsight. 3. correlates to a volume influx that both served as the 2015 top when there was a brief period of volatility across a 15% range (that I believe to have been a subwave 4 correction) and also the COVID sell-off lows (That I believe to be an E wave at the end of a Wave 4 correction that was in place since 2018). 4. Correlates to overall point-of-control as calculated by the extension which was the high for total volume between 2008 and present. Wave 1 also found resistance here as did Subwave 1 of Wave 3. Significant volatility in this area as buyers and sellers fought it out but was ultimately won by the bulls. 5. Correlates to the value area lows as caclulate by the plugin. There was no special significance of this. 6. The ultimate bottom of range. No special significance other than this is the bottom of my sampling range. So to summarise, it seems that the volume profile for the ES! futures contract correlates to my long-term view of SPX from an Elliot Wave perspective. I consider this good evidence for my wave count. We also can see from this how volume flowing into the futures market has tapered off as the market climbed. There is also a very significant RSI divergence that began in 2018 and is still in place to this day. My view going forward is that it's very difficult to believe that the minor dip since the all-time-high is going to be the correction to a 14 year bull run. So I expect further downside to come. Scenario 1: We have had an A wave down and a B wave up. We are owed a C wave down to the penultimate bottom at between 2000-2800 that are significant volume nodes. Scenario 2: We have had a Wave 1 down and are setting up for a much larger correction which will see us bottom at the COVID lows, bounce for a few years, and then continue down to the lower range of the chart. I am unsure which scenario is going to take place, but I am positioning myself for both.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by RogueEconomics
3
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 9.04-9.08Levels to Watch : Current Resistance 4532.50 - 24.25 Targets if Over 4548.75 - 43.75 Key Resistance for Any Continuation 4570 - 62.50 Gap (Supply) 4590.75 - 70.50 Current Support 4508.75 - 02.50 Key Support 4487.25 - 79.75 Single Prints 4489.25 - 82.50 // 4469.25 - 57 Last Week : Market opened right in our Current Resistance area for last week and we consolidated all night around it without getting any strong selling, once we ran out of supply we pushed and started holding above using the consolidation as Support which put our higher targets in play for the week. Once we got through Key Resistance with another consolidation under it, we got the next move towards the upper targets, we went through 4487-79 with ease and left single prints on the way up ( more trapped shorts) We did find good Resistance at our 4532-24 target and then just traded around it rest of the week. This Week : Seems like market flushed trapped Supply that built up at our HTF Resistance area into the cost basis, cleaned up under it as we didn't have the needed Support above and now we made another move back over the mean and over VAH with more strength and possible Support under. Quite a few might have gotten too short biased for continuation towards 4300-4200s that they may have been trapped again as market wasn't ready to continue just yet, which now may provide Support for us and if we can hold over 4487-79 then that could bring in more buying which could send us higher before we will see 4300-4200 again. Going into this week we have single prints under us for potential Supports at 4508.75-02.50 // 448725-79.75 areas and 4532.50-24.25 as our Current Resistance needed to be taken out for higher prices. For the Upside : We want to wait and see what we do in this 4524-08 area as right now we are by resistance and would either want to see a test of 4508.75-02.50 and ideally we can't break or flush under and come back in, hold over that area can bring 4532.50-24.25 again and this is our area to watch for continuation. If we get through we could target 4548.75-43.75 and potential a move towards Key Resistance at 4570-62.50 BUT keep in mind that gap above it is our Supply still so closer we get the more supply we will have to chew through so will we make it all the way there or if we will be able to head towards it this week at all? 32.50-24.25 would be area to watch for that. We already made a big move last week and we might need some consolidation over 4487-79 which means it might need time for next move or could be done in smaller range moves higher. For the Downside : Todays sessions while markets were closed failed at 4532.50-24.25 Resistance and holding under it could give us the test of 4508.75-02.50, this would be area to watch for continuation lower, we could find Support but if we take out the stops and hold under we could try to make a move towards Key Support which would be our Single Print area, there are 2 sets of them on the downside and we would want to see if we can fill some of them or not. We would need to get through 4487.79 area with strong volume and hold under for any continuation lower. We are currently in 4520-4480 range and we can spend some time balancing within until next move will be ready.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
9/7 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it lost yet again, and ES immediately went into a one directional, relentless sell-off. Market Outlook: Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Up a bit 🧐 Yields: Up slightly 🔮 Crypto: Down World News China’s iPhone ban from government offices to expand to state owned companies weighing on tech. Key Structures These are some big picture structures that I am watching now: - 4493-87: This level has been a critical pivot since June for several reasons. - 4448-54: This was an important level in August. - The 4409-13 level: This has been key all August and is also the white trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low. Support Levels Supports are: 4466, 4460 (major), 4454-4448 (major), 4440 (major), 4429, 4423, 4414-10 (major), 4402, 4389 (major), 4382, 4376 (major), 4364, 4357, 4344-48 (major), 4338, 4323-27 (major), 4317, 4311, 4295 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4473, 4485, 4493-87 (major), 4502, 4509, 4516 (major), 4523, 4531 (major), 4537-41 (major), 4551, 4560, 4570-75 (major), 4584, 4592 (major), 4597 (major). Trading Plan For the bull case, the relief bounce case depends on 4448-54 continuing to hold. If ES returns to the level after any dip, its a warning its about to rip through. For the bear case, bears have the ball for now and until proven otherwise. There are many spots to short weakness here, but one area I do like is on the fail of 4440. Wrap Up We broke down yesterday. In terms of direct downside, it begins on the fail of 4440 today. With rollover coming up, expect complex trading and I’ll just be looking to take my level to level piece and get out. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by spytradingpro
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June. That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions. But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market. The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot. When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head. The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down. What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation. Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce. A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase. The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased. Expiry date is September 29. Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks. And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes. A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not: And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes. The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns. You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair. And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it. The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs. The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy. "But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry." The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999. Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world. And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare. Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol. So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged. But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply. "Watch Out For Fire." The call: Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000. Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out. Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses. Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators. But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
13
9/6 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap After a significant 4-day trend to the upside, we've entered a period of chop and correction. The ES spent the majority of the session pinned around the 4515 level, punishing over-traders with a late-day dip. After a 180-point rally in the last week of August, ES is now setting up its next move. Market Outlook: Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Down a bit 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News Saudi Arabia and Russia extend oil production cuts to the end of the year reigniting fears higher oil prices will increase odds of a global recession. Key Structures Big picture structures and levels being watched include the channel (blue/purple dotted) trendline at 4538-42, a broadening formation/megaphone pattern with support at 4487 and resistance at 4565, a yellow declining channel from the August high with a backtest point at 4493, the 4464-67 zone, and the 4409-13 level. Support Levels Key supports are at 4503, 4487-93, 4474, 4464-67, 4453, 4448, 4437-40, 4423, 4411-13, 4402, 4389, 4382, 4375, 4360, 4348-50, 4338, 4324-27, 4317, 4311, and 4287-93. Resistance Levels Key resistances are at 4509, 4516, 4520, 4527, 4538-41, 4548, 4558, 4565, 4573, 4583, 4592-94, 4607, 4617-20, 4628, 4638-42, 4652, 4668, 4678, 4686-89, and 4705-08. Trading Plan The plan is to carefully pick spots for trading, as the current range is expected to continue eating up over-traders. Bids might be placed directly at 4503, with an interest in playing tests or fails of that zone. If we get back up to the 4516-20 resistance, it's likely to clear but may have one final dip. A possible breakout trade is available above 4523, but this would need to be followed by another dip and an acceptance base. Wrap Up We've had a super slow start to September and are currently in a choppy, post-rally consolidation period. The general lean is that 4503 and 4487-93 are supports for today. As long as these are defended, we will continue the base building back up to 4516-20. If 4487 fails, it implies ES will need to retrace a large chunk of the late August rally. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by spytradingpro
9/5 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August concluded with a remarkable five-day high streak in ES, marking about 150 points of total upside. Following this impressive rally, the market spent the rest of the week mainly in the range between 4540-4515. Friday's session was particularly messy, as predicted, due to the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP announcement on Friday morning. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Near unchanged 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up 🔮 Crypto: Up slightly World News Slowing economic data out of Europe and China. Key Structures The key structures to watch for include 4537-42, which is now the most critical resistance level, and the yellow declining channel from the August high with 4493 backtest point. Another significant zone is 4466-70, which was crucial throughout August. The 4408-13 level has been a magnet all August and is also a significant bull/bear line. Support Levels The support levels to watch for are 4515 (major), 4505, 4498, 4492-87 (major), 4466-70 (major), 4460, 4453, 4448, 4440 (major), 4430, 4423, 4408-13 (major), 4390, 4383 (major), 4373, 4363, 4348-52 (major). Resistance Levels The resistance levels to watch for are 4523, 4527-4533, 4537-42 (major), 4557, 4570, 4580 (major), 4590-92 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4618, 4624, 4636 (major), 4652 (major), 4664, 4672, 4683-85 (major). Trading Plan The trading plan for today is dependent on two levels: 4515 and 4493-87. As long as these levels hold, the path is higher. However, if 4515 fails, we may see more correction and test 4492-87. It's crucial to give markets the time they need after large moves and not to prematurely look for trend continuation. Wrap Up After a significant four-day upward trend, the market is now in a phase of correction and consolidation. The key is to be patient and not to rush into trades. The current price action suggests that as long as the 4515 level holds, we can expect a continuation of the range between 4515 to 4537-42, followed by a potential breakout. However, if the 4515 level fails, we may need to brace for more correction and a test of the 4492-87 decision point. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Daily TF OutlookES broke into this bigger time frame Resistance are back in June, all the shorts who were looking for market crash or reversal got trapped below and became our Support. Cost Basis was built on top of that in 4460-4375 range, once we ran the Stops over 4487 that provided the buying to get us towards the top for this Resistance at 4666-4570 but once we got inside we went sideways in a tighter distribution range instead of getting follow through. In last weeks Weekly prep we knew that we needed to get over 4615-10 area and hold to see continuation higher from here and if not the buying up here was mostly momentum buying and if we start breaking lower stops we can continue lower back towards our Cost Basis areas. 08.01 We got that rejection from 4615-10 and opened on the gap under temp Support which meant the bid that held us up over 4590 on Tuesday was gone. Once we broke that structure and closed under we trapped buyers as supply. What can we look forward to now? Well on bigger scale in my opinion we are in a bigger time frame distribution range, and the goal is to sell product at higher prices to the trapped shorts until market cleans up and decides on direction out of here. This might take some time to clean up as we had a big party getting back up here. UNLESS Market gets under 4375-4290 area and holds under or gets over 4570-4666 and holds then we will balance in this range and do cleaning. This broken structure now becomes our supply, we have Short Stops around 4530-50-60-70 areas but also Supply is right above it so they look pretty strong for now, our lower Support stops on the other hand don't look so strong because we have been away for some time. If market takes out this 4590-80 area we could see continuation for more stops lower. Going forward we can trade this range from area to area, unless we get a bigger change of direction and visible Structure breaks. If we stay in this range once we find Support trading might not be easy as we could get more choppy days and two way trading without much follow through because now we have Supply and most likely still have buying as well. Unless we sell off hard here and break all the lower stops or bounce back over 4520 then we might see market consolidate around 4370-4500 area, holding under 4520-40 will mean continued weakness and I would think this can bring a test of 4300-4290-60 at some point by October. But we focus and gather new market generated information every day and update the outlook as anything can happen.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Weekly Update: 4256 Remains the Next Target DownThe area of ES 4256 is welcoming to all who have a trading thesis. Whether you're bullish or bearish, that remains the short term target for SP500 Futures. Once that level is reached, it becomes a jump ball. In the above chart you'll notice an impulsive 5-wave count down labeled in BLUE, and an orange count labeled abc with an arrow pointing higher. The 4256 area is of the utmost importance. The outcome of bouncing or failing decides the direction for the remainder of 2023. Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
5
9/1 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Mixed 🌎 US Index Futures: Up 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down slightly 🧐 Yields: Mixed 🔮 Crypto: Near unchanged World News Non-Farms Payrolls report reinforces the Fed soft landing narrative. Key Structures After a relentless 4-day rally, ES finally experienced a pullback. The ES put in the bottom trigger nearly a week ago, which led to a significant trade gain. However, the risk of rug pulls increased after 4 green days into a major resistance. Despite an attempt at a sell, the dip was bought again, suggesting that bears have lacked follow through. Support Levels Support levels include 4516 (major), 4502 (major), 4493, 4479-81, 4466, 4448-54 (major), 4440, 4425 (major), 4411 (major), 4400, 4384, 4378-76 (major), 4356 (major), 4348, 4335, 4320-25 (major), 4311, 4297 (major) Resistance Levels Resistance levels include 4527-31 (major), 4537 (major), 4544, 4454, 4565-68 (major), 4581 (major), 4592, 4597, 4607-4612 (major), 4618, 4624 (major), 4632, 4644, 4657 (major), 4662, 4677-4680 (major), 4691, 4701 (major), 4715. Trading Plan Today is the final session before a holiday weekend, and it will likely be a mess to trade. The bull flag that broke out has support at 4502, and therefore, bulls want that to hold after NFP today. The bear case would need 4502 to fail. In general, today is a day to be cautious with trading due to the recent rally and upcoming holiday. Wrap Up This week has seen a "trade of the year" with a 155 point rally. However, with today being the final session before a holiday weekend and NFP, the market conditions are poor for trading. The general lean for today is a dip to 4502, maybe undercut to 4492, then try to continue back up to build a range more. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
SPX ES Futures - A Great Deal of Caution Is AdvisedIt can be said that it's no surprise whatsoever that Jackson Hole was used so that options sellers could make various positions expire worthless, since it occurs on a Friday and was widely expected to be a high volatility day. Although indexes closed with sub-1% moves, the intraday range was actually very significant. Perhaps with Wednesday's apparent bounce and Friday's recovery, and the VIX trading at a 15-handle again, traders have been told to become bullish again because "new bull market." Yet when we look at the ES monthly, we see that price action has already taken out the July low. And we see from the Weekly that the weekly bounce simply swept into the wicks by a half handle before retracing upwards of 3%. The Nasdaq swept even higher, into the week of August 7's wicks: And the Dow is actually just really, really bearish: The biggest problem bulls face heading into the end of September and the end of Q3 is the situation in Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he has still yet to throw away. While many people may still feel that a sub-10% move on ES futures for the month of August, that will take out the July low circa-4,100, is a dream too good to come true with four days remaining... Consider that China's Hang Seng Tech Index, in an economy where every single company is a de facto state-run enterprise that must report to the CCP in every way, has an almost 17% range this month while dealing with a similar numerical value to the SPX: What hangs over the head of all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners by the CCP under former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it died) starting July 20, 1999. In order to go to places like Tsinghua and Shanghai and do business as a foreigner, one has had to "transfuse blood" and swear vows to the Red Regime and the Jiang Faction, and this has formed significant skeletons in the closet of many of the companies that support the indexes. If you don't believe it. Just go look up the Neil Heywood saga, or look at Canadian establishment journalist Sam Cooper's book "Wilful Blindness: How A Network Of Narcos, Tycoons And Chinese Communist Party Agents Infiltrated The West" and take a calloused look at reality. The start of August has marked a bearish shift in market structure. And although there are significant fractals that show a retrace to the highs is actually very realistic, the reality is that with how price action has played out, every bounce has occurred to rape bears and trap bulls. And this means that if there is to be a bounce, it's likely in Q4, which means there's another month of megadoom ahead. JP Morgan's big fund has been long puts from 4,225 since the end of June, and those puts have been significantly under water this entire time. JPM doesn't lose money and is hedged, of course, but the reality is that because of time decay, price must now trade significantly below 4,225 for those puts to even break even, the 4,665 calls to finally expire worthless, and the 3,550 puts they sold to a client to even have a remote chance of mitigating their losses. The truth is that the target, since indexes took the July low and have not truly bounced, is the June low. For ES SPX futes, this means 4,178, and more likely, a raid on the 4,100 big figure to complete August. There's only four trading days left, and this amount of volatility will be significant. But at the same time, it's only a -5.34% week from where we closed on Friday. A quarter-handle raid on the low will result in a sub-10% loss this month for the SPX. Compare that to the Hang Seng Tech and tell me how unrealistic reality is at a time that all of humanity is in great danger. So, what are the news drivers? On Monday, there's nothing in the economic calendar, but Tuesday is JOLTS, Wednesday is ADP Non-farm and GDP, Thursday, the 31st is PCE and Unemployment, and Friday, September 1, is the most volatile day of the month, Non-farm Payroll. Anyways, bulls, buying the dip is cool, but your calls better expire January of 2024. Anything less, and you're probably just donating money to some Hedgie's son's fraternity fund.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
4
8/31 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap The trading week so far has been marked by a powerful rally, with four massive green days in a row. We've retraced 60% of the selloff that took bears the entire month of August in just four days. The combination of failed breakdowns and runners has proven incredibly effective, leading to the largest gain of 2023 for me in terms of points. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Up a bit 🌎 US Index Futures: Up a bit 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down slightly World News European inflation remains flat at 5.3% US PCE inflation holds steady Key Structures The yellow declining channel from the August high is a bull flag with 4507 resistance and support around 4400 now. The 4410 level has been a magnet all month and is also the yellow trendline connecting the Dec 2022, Feb 2023 highs, and June 2023 low. I call this the bull/bear line and bulls control above, bears control below. Support Levels Supports are: 4515 (major), 4508 (major), 4499, 4490-93, 4482 (major), 4473, 4466 (major), 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4423 (major), 4410 (major), 4397 (major), 4389, 4377 (major), 4364, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4329, 4321 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4515 (major), 4527, 4533, 4537 (major), 4546, 4560-65 (major), 4575, 4585, 4592 (major), 4597, 4607 (major), 4619, 4630, 4640-45 (major). Trading Plan As long as the 4508 and 4515 levels hold, the bull case today looks like base building above 4515, then run up the levels to 4537, perhaps as high as 4545. Potential dip spot there, then continue to 4560-65. The bear case today begins on the fail of 4508. This is a possible short, but I don’t chase. If you chase, you get caught in a failed breakdown. Wrap Up We are now in the post-rally phase. There is obviously high risk of rapid, violent rug pulls now after 4 green days into a major resistance. As long as 4515-08 holds, we can push to 4537-4545, dip there (if bears are lucky, maybe even a top). Above there after, we continue to 4560-65. 4508 fails, we start the sell. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
8/30 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap As anticipated, the ES put in a core setup and a major bottoming pattern last Friday at 11am. Since then, it's been a steady climb to the upside. I got long at 4385 and have been holding since, turning it into an incredible 120 point long. As I predicted on Monday, the bull case played out exactly as expected, with the ES basing under 4448 all night, then taking the run up to 4474-76. ES did not stop there, instead running for 4515 which has been my macro target all week. Market Outlook: Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up a bit 🌍 Europe: Up slightly 🌎 US Index Futures: Near unchanged 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Down 🧐 Yields: Down 🔮 Crypto: Down World News U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo critical of Chinese business environment. Key Structures The key structures I'm watching now include the purple declining channel from the August high, the 4458 & 4548 zone, the 4408 level, and the 4376 support. These structures provide context to the daily price action and are not meant to be predictive. Support Levels Supports are: 4498, 4487-93 (major), 4475, 4466, 4458 (major) 4454, 4448 (major), 4440, 4430, 4424 (major), 4417, 4409 (major), 4403 (major), 4392-89, 4374-76 (major), 4358, 4348 (major), 4338, 4330, 4318-21 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4513-15 (major), 4523, 4527, 4537 (major), 4544, 4557 (major), 4570-72 (major), 4585, 4592, 4597 (major), 4607 (major), 4615-18, 4628, 4637 (major), 4651. Trading Plan After such a major move, it's crucial to trade carefully and selectively. The first major support down is 4487-93. If this fails, we could see some selling and any longs would be considered knife catches. The first major resistance is 4513-15. If we overthrow to something like 4523 then lose 4515, it may represent a more attractive setup for those interested in these. Wrap Up The bull case has played out as expected and now it's time to step back and wait for the market to reveal its next move. After a big move, it's crucial to trade light and patiently wait for price discovery. If we clear 4513-15 with force, we simply continue up the levels to 4537 then 4570 direct. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 8.27-9.01Levels To Watch : Key Resistance 4445-37 // Current 4422.75-18.75 // 16.50 ? Target if over 4465-60.25 // 87.25-79.75 Current Support 4478.50-74.75 // Key For Continuation Lower 4362.75-55 Targets if under 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 27.25-21.50 *** 4405.25-4392.25 ? This was previous Key Resistance and 4416-05 is our VAL on 4hr, we closed within it but we don't know if it will act as Support or not, If market cant hold over it then that would be our sign of weakness. Last Week : Going into last week 4378-74 was our pinata low for the week to crack in order to see lower prices, as discussed in last Sundays prep IF we do hold over it then that could bring tests of Current Resistance // Key Resistance and if we hold over then that could bring the test of higher stops. We were able to clear all the upper stops and back fill towards our HTF Mean area around 4487-60 but the run up was done after hours/Globex and market just couldn't hold, closer we got to RTH the more selling came in. End of week we ran out of buying and inventory flushed back under Key Resistance, broke our Pinata Low with volume but buying came in at Current Support for the week which pushed us back over 78-74 and into Resistance. One of the things I noticed is how long it took us to clean up under 4405 to get back inside value, if we trapped size and had strong buyers here would it take us that long to push back inside value? This Week : This week we are set to open around our VAL 4416.50-05.25, under Supply that was again trapped over 4420 and close to our bigger Supports.... sounds fun! So where can we head from here? We had some strong selling Thursday/Friday out of our VAH and Value area but our range Support held the tests and gave us a close back in Key Area. Seems like buying here from last week is just short covering and new longs who aren't strong enough to hold us up over Key Areas just yet with stronger buying coming below 4370s. For the Downside - IF the Market can't hold over 4416.50 that would signal continued weakness and if 4405.25-92.25 area doesn't act as Support then we could see more selling. If we break and start holding below that it could bring in test of Current Support at 4378.50-74.75 IF we break it again that would give us another chance at lower targets. 4362.75-55 Would be the Key area to hold under during the week, under we could see more weakness towards 4349.50-45 // 38.50-31.50 // 4327.25-21.50 These areas are close to our HTF Key Support so watch out for buyers at first tests and even possible a stronger bounce? If the market shows. We do have Contract Roll Gap under and we would have to see if we have enough supply to get inside it to maybe make a move towards bigger Support or no? For the Upside - IF 4405.25-4392.25 can act as Support and Market can hold over it then that could bring in more buyers to get us back over VAL at 4416.50. We would need to get over that and hold over 22.78-18.75 which is a pretty big Current Resistance as we didn't have much buying over it last week. Only holding over that can bring higher prices and give a chance at 4445-37.75 which would be our mean and next Key Area to get through/hold over. Unless we can do that then I would be careful trying to long unless its from Support areas if they show holds or strong buying from targets if they happen. Possible stronger buying area could be 4431.50-21.50 and under IF we get there. ** We could as well spend time in range under Value between 4420s-4370s-50s without going too much lower as this is still area of buying and unless we hold under/over Key areas then need to be careful. We do have lots of Market moving data this week so hopefully we can get some good trading and wont stay in range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
29082023 - #ESFriday's levels () worked well as market sold off almost at the level given, hit the 4358 to the dot before going higher. Now market is back to the highs especially after the up move yesterday. Overall, price action is bullish and is supported all the zones but somewhat "overbought". Price might pull back to cool off before going higher. 4424 (max low of 4414) or so will be a good level to look for longs for a move higher. But if market did not go down but instead rally to the 4448 strong resistance, will look for reversal candle to look for a move down instead.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
1
8/29 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap August is nearing its end and incredibly for the entire month, ES has only put in two consecutive green days on one occasion. The latest attempt began on Friday, and as readers recall, I got long at 4385 based on my core, highest win rate trading pattern - the failed breakdown. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Up 🌍 Europe: Up 🌎 US Index Futures: Down slightly 🛢 Crude Oil: Up 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up a bit 🔮 Crypto: Down a bit World News Chinese markets were strongly higher overnight on reports of more stimulus as state banks lower mortgage rates. European Union announces new expansion plans. Key Structures Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest). These are big picture structures, and provide context to the daily price action. They are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the intraday levels in the below plan level to level, one level at a time, one move at a time, then resetting bias. These are not comprehensive. Support Levels Supports are: 4441 (major), 4430, 4424 (major), 4409-13 (major), 4398, 4387-90, 4376 (major), 4360, 4347-52 (major), 4339, 4327, 4318-20 (major), 4312, 4300 (major), 4287 (major), 4278, 4266 (major), 4241, 4225-30 (major) Resistance Levels Resistances are: 4448, 4454 (major), 4466, 4474-76 (major), 4487-93 (major), 4500, 4513-16 (major), 4523, 4528, 4538 (major), 4545, 4556 (major), 4565-68 (major). Trading Plan Bull case: Unchanged. I posted something very simple all last week. Bulls control above 4408, and bears control below. Since we reclaim 4408 on Friday (plus the failed breakdown), bulls control. Generally, the bull case from here looks something like base more under 4448, then take the run up the lvls to 4454, 4466, then 4474-76. Dip there, then onto 4513. Bear case: Unchanged. Loss of 4408 is the first big warning for bulls. The sell trigger remains the same as Friday, which is the failure of 4376. I’d short this, but as always - I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce there to drain demand, then I’d look short 4373 for the next leg down. Level to level profit takes as always, but seeing 4320 would not shock me. Wrap Up In summary, my general lean is that we can base more above 4424 then run to 4466, 4474-76. If 4424 fails, we retest 4408, and the loss of that is a big warning for bulls. 4376 fail starts the next trend leg down. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro
Weekly Plan ES Futures /2708/28 Weekly Plan. ES Futures September Weekly Pivot is 4,402 [top of the spike from 8/24 Targets 4,425 4,469 [5 days balance top) 4,505 Targets 4,350 4,313 4,289 Now trading at 4,418 Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time ES hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening 4,418 Weekly pivot at 4,402 Each weekly target. Side notes: 5 Days Balance in daily + monthly. We are One Time Framing Down in Weekly Chart, weekly OTFD ends if 4468.75 is breached in RTH (balance top). 5 days balance zone is When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan. Have a great week and trade safe.
SP:SPX
by dhjesus
8/27 Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading PlanRecap Friday was a typical Jackson Hole day, characterized by unpredictability and traps. As predicted, the day saw extensive trapping where the price would make an initial move, trap traders, reverse, and then repeat. Despite the volatility, bulls won the day, maintaining control as long as the 4408 level held. Market Outlook: Neutral to Bullish Key Structures There are several key structures to watch. The large rising uptrend channel in white, which failed on Tuesday, August 15th, causing a 120 point flush, needs to reclaim to set a definitive bottom. The yellow channel, a failed bull flag with 4523 resistance and support around 4408-10, needs to be re-entered by the bulls. Lastly, the head and shoulders pattern built since mid-June tried to breakdown the "neckline" at 4375 Thursday and failed, indicating a bullish failed breakdown. Support Levels Supports are at 4408-10 (major), 4402, 4382-85 (major), 4375 (major), 4363, 4357 (major), 4348, 4339 (major), 4328, 4319-23 (major), 4311, 4298-4301 (major), 4282-86 (major), 4272, 4266, 4247 (major), 4235 (major). Resistance Levels Resistances are at 4423 (major), 4429,4437-40 (major), 4448, 4453 (major), 4467, 4474 (major), 4482, 4487-92 (major), 4499, 4512 (major), 4522 (major), 4527, 4540-45 (major), 4554, 4560, 4566-68, 4576-80 (major), 4592, 4598, 4607-09 (major). Trading Plan For Monday, the bull case remains the same. As long as the level of 4408 is maintained, the rally is alive. The bear case requires the level of 4375 to fail. In both cases, it is essential to see the level fully accepted before attempting shorts or longs. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. Wrap Up In summary, we are still in deep chop around the 4408 magnet. My general lean as of now is that as long as 4408-10 keeps holding, we can base build then continue up the levels. If 4408 fails, we play the levels. If 4375 fails, we free fall. As always, trade with caution and don't chase. Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by spytradingpro