US Indices Backtesting and Charting Session On Price Action Hello everyone:
As promised I will periodically make these backtesting/chart work videos on different markets, pairs and timeframes.
This is for me to present the importance of backtesting in trading consistency.
Not only it will help traders to not have emotional decisions such as FOMO or fear of losing, it will give traders confidence at identifying trade opportunities and execute them when the time comes.
The more we do backtesting, the easier we spot an entry, setting a SL/TP, and remove any emotional decisions.
Today I want to go into the US Indices, specifically the SPY, NASDAQ, DOW. I will pick a few market crashed examples and dig deeper into them.
Few educational videos below on the topic of backtesting, and why it will help you in your trading journey.
How & Why I backtest:
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Backtesting & Chartwork on USDCAD:
Any questions, comments, or feedback please let me know :)
Thank you
Jojo
Entry
Great Fundamentals, and great long entry in Thermo FisherGreat value here in a hot market:
P/E 30
Forward P/Q 24.4
P/FCF 49.4
Debt/Eq 0.66
Quick Ratio 2.9
Company Information
Market Cap 194B
Income 6.3B
Dividend 0.18%
Employees 75,000
Earnings
EPS this Y 22%
EPS Past 5Y 14%
Sales Q/Q +35.9%
Equity
Insiders Own 0.1%
Insider Transactions -21.9% (Last 3 months)
Institutions Own 91.6%
Institutions added 0.21% (last 3 months)
Section 4 Forms:
Insider transactions were consolidated largely from Mark Stevenson the COO & Mark Casper the Chairman CEO exercising options and selling equity. Dec 4th & December 7th.
Wish they paid out a better dividend than 0.18% but I must admit I am impressed seeing a net margin of 11% which is why I am slapping them with a $525 price target.
UPS Entry & Long Target - Trading StrategyUPS is a terrific company that provides a valuable service. Currently the P/E ratio is very high, and with current earnings it is tough to justify this in a portfolio as an aggressive strategy. With that said, as outlined within the chart - if price offers confirmation off S1 we will find a nice entry to target the top of the wedge following that.
Keep in mind this is a terrific investment looking out long term. As outlined in two publications, they have now sold the Freight Division for $800 million and will be concentrating efforts on the legacy parcel division which is the most profitable, undertaking a "better rather than bigger" strategy.
I wish nothing but the best for this incredible company and offer the following two sources for those interested in reading about the selling the LTL division to TFI International:
“We see compelling opportunities to improve yield, efficiency, and...productivity, both near and long-term,” TFI Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Alain Bédard said in a Monday call with analysts.
"The acquisition caps a dramatic period of growth for TFI that has seen the business buy dozens of companies. Many were small operators, but the deals also include the 2016 acquisition of XPO Logistics Inc.’s truckload division, and the purchases of trucker Vitran Corp. and of truckload carrier Transport America Inc. in 2014.
Mr. Bédard said the truckload business at UPS Freight, which makes up about 10% of the unit‘s revenue, will be blended into TFI’s existing truckload operations while the main LTL segment, including 147 terminals and 50 leased sites, will operate on its own."
blog.translogisticsinc.com
www.wsj.com
Possible Entry ApproachingIt doesn’t take a genius to figure out KO has been a good long term investment and will continue to be a good long term investment. They have been innovating for decades show no sign of stopping.
If you are looking to trade the stock there may be an entry point soon. After plunging past support of $50 in an upward channel on 1/14 the stock found new support at $48.70. It held here from 1/20 to 2/4 and just before earnings on 2/10 there was a gap up to $49.65. Price action says investors were not too impressed but did not punish it back down to $48.70 and on 2/10 KO closed at $49.60.
I believe KO can go back to $48.70 over the next few days, once again fund support, then continue trading higher to $51.00. If it holds at $49.44 there is a good chance it continues to trade in its previous upward channel and hits $51.50 before trading even higher.
I would buy at $49.75 and set a stop at $48.60. PT1 is $51.00. PT2 is $52.70.
EURNZD LONGEUR/NZD currently retesting our resistance zone and hopefully will continue in a bullish momentum.
ENTRY @ 1.67263 (OR UNDER)
SL @ 1.66800 (40 PIPS)
TP @ 1.67800 (60 PIPS)
TP2 @ 1.68200 (100 PIPS)
If you're interested in knowing our other daily trade ideas, analysis and entry points then message us directly for access.
Failed 3x Bullish Pinbar, SBR?D1 chart showing 3x straigh Bullish Pinbar, that failed/break. See the reaction for touch of each pinbar Low price. From below, touch #1, going down. Touch #2, going lower than previous. Now touching #3 Low price bullish pinbar candle. I expect this point for sell until at least nearest support, more than 1000pt perhaps.
Support Break 1st Trendline, Need 2nd Trendline for Downtrend.USDCAD trendline support break after 4th touch. In my calculation, first break will make 2nd Trendline. Current price need to make make pullback first, then after that can draw 2nd Trendline. 2nd Trendline break, then will make downtrend possible. Looking at possible pullback (buy) at reverse fibo 0.618
EUR was weighed on by the stronger buck...EUR was weighed on by the stronger buck, succumbing to further pressure as political risk in Italy has grown after Renzi’s ministers resigned, although the downside was relatively brief and it is unlikely snap-elections will be held. ECB President Lagarde reiterated the ECB carefully monitors FX and FX movements but do not target it, adding the ECB will be extremely attentive to FX impact on prices. Aside from EUR, Lagarde reiterated that if a larger PEPP envelope is required, the ECB will recalibrate, and if the ECB does not need to spend the full envelope, it will not. She was also optimistic on the start of the year. Villeroy also noted they are closely following the negative effects of the EUR rate. EUR/GBP possible third bounce at highlighted key level on trendline. Also aligns with 61.8% FIB.