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Emotions

The importance of intelligence to tradingINTELLECTUAL QUOTIENT The one we hear the most nonsense about and for 1 legit piece of info there are 500 TB of crap. People are super insecure about this. Even in investing circles, where individuals are at or above average, still insecure. Academics using Finnish data (because at 19-20 men have to pass an IQ test for the military) found that 25% top IQ (IQ > 110) make up 50% of market participants 25% bot IQ (IQ < 90) make up 9% of market participants So virtually everyone reading this should be average or above, and I don't do simple magical indicators so that probably adds another filter. Academics looked at tech stocks on the Helsinki stock exchange and found that in the sample period 1/1995-11/2002 the annualized returns (dividends etc included) were: - For the 42% with the lowest IQ 9.52%. The 1rst to 4rth stanine. IQ <96. I'll call them INT 1-4. - For the 4% with the highest IQ 14.45%. The 9th stanine. IQ > 126. I'll call them INT 9. A significant difference. Remember the vast majority are passive investors that just follow the market as a whole. Imagine 1/3 of a country invests, they have a separate life they're not all active. Much of the difference in performance - which is monotonously correlated with IQ - comes from lower IQ individuals joining at the wrong time. But even when ignoring the timing, and looking at returns as if they all joined equally over time (by adding weights to the data) scientists found that INT 9 (IQ > 126) returned 14.84% and INT 1-4 (IQ < 96) returned 12.65%. So not only wrong timing but also wrong stock selection. I am guessing they regrouped 1-4 to not humiliate people with intellectual disability (INT 1)? Sources: papers.ssrn.com papers.ssrn.com Proven by science, all the big liars saying it does not matter are big liars trying to be liked. About market timing. There is a clear pattern, it just jumps at you. Page 61 of IQ, Trading Behavior, and Performance you can see for yourself so I'll keep it short: Basically like it or not, people with an IQ over 105 (37% of the population), which already is the majority of market participants, are the ones buying during the bull market, and the average and below all rush in when prices start to go parabolic, making them go even more parabolic, smart people step away, and 1-5s hold the bag and keep buying when the price is clearly in a bear market (poor pattern recognition). To all the people that joined crypto in 2017 and are going "oh no not me": The Finnish data set only looks at men over 20. And the vast majority of those are well over 30. They had more than enough time to earn some money, hear about stocks, and get into investing. The European demographic pyramid is really terrible. And of course older people invest more than broke young people that study or barely started to work. People get into investing in waves. The tech bubble was when plenty of 20 yos (back then) got in. I didn't know I could invest by myself before 2017. All of us 20-30s are just a tiny minority that makes no difference stat-wise compared to the vast number of middle aged workers and retirees. For my defense I entered at the top, during the parabola but I was not a permabull, all the bagholding 1-5s were laughing at me for being bearish... I like it here, how it is now. If Bitcoin goes vertical to over 100K the 25% at the bottom will start to appear again. And start arguing. And making circular logic. And screaming. And sending threats. Oh boy. INT 6 represents 17% of the general pop & in this data 23-24% of market participants, INT 7-9 23% of the general pop is 36-37% of market participants. You know, even today after they lowered the level drastically, only 1/3 of people completes college education (or equivalent for us French), and they're not 1-4s. Seems obvious to me that someone that struggles with a division won't be making money in the markets, do people think this is manual labor? But whatever, as I said, IQ matters because these 4 things matter: 1. Pattern Recognition: The ability to understand the world through analogies. Predicting a crash because many elements are similar to the previous crash is not very different to looking at a bunch of dominos in an IQ test and guessing which one is next in the list. 2. Numbers skills: being able to quickly calculate risk, volatility, as well as understand probabilities. Good way to avoid holding a bag and waking up "Oh what? How am I down 75%? Didn't see that coming". You have to see that coming. You need to know how much you'll make or lose if the price goes up/down by x percent, how likely it is to happen using implied volatility, and much more. 3. Planning & Problem Solving: NEW problems. Not "learn by heart your school lesson" problems. Parrots and college professors do not make great traders. Learning by heart is useless. Every time it's different. "This time it's different". You can mix this with pattern recognition and it becomes obvious where I'm getting at: dumb money ALWAYS goes "this time it's different". You should be able to adapt to new variables, solve new problems, and be able to recognize how NOT different they are. All snowflakes are different. This is literally IQ at its finest and nothing more. You either see the "different" pattern of dominos and can solve the problem or you don't have the IQ and simply do not see it (and insult people that do see it call them stupid and conspiracy theorists). 4. Dealing with a lot of info: being able to analyse much information, while ignoring distractions. Academics that looked at data unsurprisingly found that higher IQ individuals had more diversified portfolios. And also, higher IQ individuals are able to analyse more data as well as ignore distractions (according to a BBC article). How to increase my IQ? There is a way. Only 1 way I know of: "Scientists found that multitasking reduced men IQ by 15 points, lowering them to the level of an 8 year old". I am certain it's not like this for women, prob just reduces it by 5 points or something, or maybe 0 idk. We men tunnel vision. So ye just focus on 1 goal only and get good at it. This "multitasking" will make you a complete noob. Literally an 8 year old to be more precise :D. Women have same average IQ as men also. I don't really know what the differences are for investing, probably not much. They're probably better at being organised too. That's just... so bad for me you have no idea. What a mess. Obviously it's also possible to learn about numbers and improve at it... And one learns to recognize snowflakes by studying plenty of snowflakes, regardless of his abilities (just will be easier for someone who scores higher that's all). EMOTIONAL QUOTIENT Why do I write so much? Good thing there is very little research about this, so not much to say. First, no, women do not score higher (in IQ either btw). Just because there is the word "emotional" in it people assume silly things. It's just a word. Irrelevant. So I'm calling it brzbjfbrhdjf from here on. These are pretty self-explanatory honestly. People with high brzbjfbrhdjf perform better than people with low brzbjfbrhdjf. There are exceptions. I found that people with LOW empathy made better debt collectors XD Better serial killers too I bet! A doc, not sure how serious, shows how they tested portfolio managers, and these had significantly higher brzbjfbrhdjf than average people. There is very little research on brzbjfbrhdjf, as opposed to IQ that has a lot of it, but there sure is a lot of "understanding" media articles about brzbjfbrhdjf, saying how great it is, as there are tons of articles saying how awful IQ is (insecure much?) and none praising it or just listing some of the positives. The market does not care where you bought, remember? It's about what the market is feeling, so go scream "BITCOIN IS GOING TO ZERO!" and find out if: - They are mocking you (honestly): They are complacent, euphoric or thrilled, depends. Can't really teach this... Have to "feel it" idk. - They are angry (includes mocking you but if you have high "empathy" & "social skills" you can tell they are mad): Anxious - They go "pfff", "I'm over it", they sigh: Well capitulated and depressed, bottom? So many people think the world revolves around them, and when there is someone they don't like they get persuaded that person is dumb or loses money XD They think if they believe hard enough it will happen? I find it stupid, so the term "emotional" intelligence might be accurate, the intelligence part anyway. I could go on but I think that's enough. If I find something interesting I'll share. It might be more important than IQ, OR not be more important but since all investors have high IQ anyway then IQ won't matter but "EQ" will differentiate between the mediocre ones and great ones. Having both = jackpots. OF COURSE here we talk about people that put in the hours. Obviously just having "good genetics" won't make you Mr Olympia if you drink beer all day long and never work out, know what I mean? People with low empathy can make money by the way, plenty of autists (famous for not being able to understand people feelings) are great money manager. Remember Michael Burry? Predicted the housing crisis and shorted morgage swaps, great at stock picks. Famous now, made lots of money. You know what else Michael Burry did? Short WAY too early. Because people were still way thrilled back then. And he quit managing other people money (I doubt he understood their stress), in an interview he explains how they were mad even after he made them lots of money. A guy with low empathy dealing with very emotional people (very emotional doesn't mean high "emotional" intelligence) and very little self-management (also little ba**s). 1. Self-Awareness: is the ability to understand how emotions affect yourself and other people. 2. Self-Management: is the ability to control impulsive decisions. 3. Motivation: is having a passion for what you do along with a curiosity for learning. 4. Empathy: as in the ability to understand how people feel (fear, euphoria, etc). 5. Social Skills: as in being aware of the people around you, people with different point of views. The military gets the best results by filtering at entry. Rather than punish everyone because of some gamblers, regulators ought to filter at entry. In some video game, would a MAGICIAN starting with 0 STR and built as a melee tank do well? No. People with low "IQ" and "EQ" have nothing to do in this business. Better to do something else. What else that I do not know. Society has a problem with low IQ individuals, there are no jobs for them. Tech advanced too fast humans can't keep up. Just convince intelligent women to focus on their careers and give welfare to dumb ones when they have kids, that'll solve the problem long term! I do not have autism (kinda disappointed), it's not that I do not KNOW this sounds distasteful to people, I am very aware of it, it's just that I don't give a rat's ass. Not going to start lying to be popular. Plus everyone can keep burying their heads in the sand, things will just keep getting worse. Specific to investing, people will low IQ/EQ will be told everyone can make it, buy a course or whatever, waste hundreds of hours, lose their money, quit. Oh great. But for a moment they felt really good and had high hopes. High hopes that got completely crushed. Great. At least some bullshiter got to be the nice guy! Most "1-4s" know they're not super smart and avoid the market, most people that get offended are 5+ but get offended in their name because they're so virtuous or something. But idk recently they're trying to "democratize" investing, and all sort of random people with no clue what they are doing and a gambling mentality are jumping in to pump the pyramid scheme higher. This can only end badly. So I wonder, are the people pushing for this nonsense really "well intentioned"? Or just trying to keep the pyramid scheme alive a bit longer and pump their holdings at the expense of "useless eaters"?
Education
by MrRenev
5
Gamestop announced they might sell up to 3.5 million sharesGME management has the intention to sell some shares, with the goal of getting $1 billion out of the sale, they registered 3.5 million new shares. To get $1 billion at a $150 price they would have to sell 6.66 million shares. The ADV dropped to 20 million and I think is likely to stay above the period where the company was undervalued lost and forgotten with 3 million ADV. That sale is not that big it can be absorbed by the volume. The share price gapped down by 10% in the pre-market yesterday (nothing out of the ordinary) then I assume as the market opened "diamond hands" (retail investors participating in online forums) bought up the company. The noise around the company probably helped them as their sales grew by 11% in the last 2-3 months, and their March sales were up by 18% compared to last year (US lockdowns started mid-late march and European ones too). As far as I know they are not officially telling wallstreetbet many (new) users to support them, but they are taking advantage of the hype and bagholding mentality. In their filing I think they say something along the lines of "We issue new shares. Maybe price go down. Remember risks", the typical useless and mandatory warning to protect investors from themselves "warning drinking bleach might harm you", "cigarettes are bad for health", "do not eat this tube of glue" and so on. I never heard of Gamestop before this, or perhaps I did if they made game reviews I'm not sure but I'm sure I don't remember for sure (you still here?). What I can recognize for sure is Micromania. Last time Gamestop had a billion in cash they used it to purchase french retailer Micromania which everyone in that country surely has walked by before, and they later merged it with another company to sell mangas and movies too to address the decline in gaming sales. Their brand surely is recognizable. So after only 10 years they finally decide to go online, now that their public price is 10 times their actual valuation. Since their name is so mainstream and much of their "investors" are random unsophisticated people as they say, maybe they should focus more on their public image sort of like Elon Musk does, maybe they do not want to become complete master manipulators like this freak but they could play with what they have while they are rebuilding (or trying to) their dead company. If I was advising the GME management I'd say to make sure the price stays in a range: bagholders breakeven if it goes up, and panic sell if the price goes down enough. Literally announcing you're going to sell 3.5 million, 10 million, even 5000 million shares won't get them to sell don't worry, it's "just fud", I bet to half these people it's just a ticker with an indicator and the elusive sky people known as "the big guys" are trying to get them to sell, after all thinking logically is for trolls that "just don't get it", but the price going down too much will trigger their deep fear emotions and get them all selling at the same time. This is not crypto you can't manipulate the price, it would be very efficient here, a shame. Elon Musk is playing with "simple people" emotions, and the SEC don't seem to mind, the "common folk" even sees him as a hero so why not spread a tiny bit of fomo? Within legal borders. "GameStop Announces At-The-Market Equity Offering Program" "Company Can Sell Up to 3.5 Million Shares and Intends to Use Any Proceeds to Further Accelerate Transformation and Strengthen Balance Sheet" news.gamestop.com I am curious, who are the people buying actually? Bagholders averaging down? Or just random people that "buy when there is blood in the street"? My own actions: Not buying, not selling.
NYSE:GME
by MrRenev
22
XRPUSD Ripple - How everybody looks at it, Best ConfirmationCrazy moves on XRP. Probably most of the investors/traders are crying right now. The reason is because they missed on this big move but why? Due to their emotions. That was the best confirmation for me why I was still holding XRP and still publishing here new Updates to remind everybody about it that a huge pump will occur. The first time when I made an analysis on XRP was at 0.20$ I presented so many confirmation about why this is so logical that this thing should take off and it did. My best confirmation was the emotional aspect of the majority. This is how investment works. Whenever the majority are super confident about an Investment Instrument to go to 0 or considering it as an bad business you should open you eyes and attack at the right point(price). Whenever the prices are low the majority are scary. After the price is pumping everybody is looking to buy. But it is too late. This is exactly what happened when XRP faced the lawsuit with the SEC. Everybody was selling and so many investors bought that market a few days before due to that strong % growth (+250%). A few days later there was a *reason* to dump xrp. That made it even more attractive to buy it after that huge drop. Boom here we are ;)
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by DariusFxTrading
24
The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions. 1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing. As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations. At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold , we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk. 2: Complacency, denial, hope The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds. 3: Panic, capitulation, despondency In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all. Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity. 4: Skepticism, caution, worry In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive. What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster? Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour. Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing. You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are: Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers. Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely. Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security. Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements. Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.* The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions. Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
59
Trading habits that lead to SUCCESS...Plan for success but have no expectations... A lot of trading emotion comes from expectation. Traders expect the next trade to be a winner, they expect this month to be profitable, they expect the USD to become bearish, etc, etc. Having no expectations can really help to reduce trading emotions. Obviously, you should still stick with a strategy and do all you can to BE success, just don't expect to succeed. Success will come as you unemotionally stick with a strategy that gives you an edge. Success comes from trading your strategy with consistency, not be giving-up when expectations are not met.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
1
FALSE Trading Expectations #3... Win Rate (continued) I lose a lot of the time. A large amount of my trades are stopped-out for a loss. This does not make me a bad trader, it actually makes me a real trader! Most profitable traders are right only 40%-65% of the time. A lot of traders understand that there will be losing trades. What they don't understand is that there will be consecutive losing trades. Even a strategy that has a win rate of 65%, could have 10 consecutive losing trades, maybe even more! This does not make the strategy unprofitable or not worth using. Conclusion... Expect a lower win rate. A win rate of around 50% is ideal. Expect to have consecutive losing trades. Also expect to have consecutive winning trades.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
FALSE Trading Expectations #2... Win RateForex trading is not a 'get rich quick' scheme. It can make you rich, but it will do this slowly. In order to make large returns, a trader may have to take large risks. High risk trading guarantees greater emotional and psychological challenges. This may lead to quick short-term profits but it will also lead to discouraging long-term losses. Too many traders expect far too much far too quickly. They review their performance and results on a daily or weekly basis, this can lead to discouragement and disappointment. Profitable traders review their results much more longer-term. Conclusion... Trading can make you rich, but it will make you rich slowly. To make trading work long-term, you need to risk a minimum. Expect to be patient. Review profits once a quarter or once a year.
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
2
Trading with WRONG expectations... #1Almost all traders understand the concept of a drawdown - a period of loss making. A trader is not going to have a 100% trade win rate - there will be losing trades - and there will be times of consecutive losing trades. For some reason, despite understanding this concept, many traders don't ACCEPT this concept. Let me explain... As soon as a trader hits a drawdown, the reaction is panic or discouragement. The following statements could flood the mind of the trader... 'The strategy is not profitable anymore' 'I need a more profitable trading strategy' 'I am going to lose too much, so I will reduce my position sizes' 'I need to increase my position sizes to win back these losses' 'I am so angry, I am going to risk all that I have left in my account' In other words, the trader becomes emotional and let's his emotions determine his trading decisions. This will always result in long-term failure. Conclusion... Accept that drawdowns will happen and expect drawdowns to happen, because they will happen!
Education
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
13
5 Rules For Successful Trading!Trading is simple, but not easy. Traders have difficulty succeeding simply because they are unable to follow clear rules over extended periods of time. So what are the rules that every trader should follow? (in my opinion) 1- Only invest what you Can Afford to Lose. Only invest money you can afford to lose, never ever borrow money or take a loan from the bank to invest in forex, or any other type of investment. Because if you do, you will get emotional and make irrational mistakes. 2- 1% Risk per Trade. We only risk a small portion of our account per trade. We enter with 1% risk per trade (2% max). We enter with a fixed risk per trade, not with a fixed stop loss in pips, nor with a fixed lot size. That’s a common mistake many traders make. 3- Three Confluences Trades. (Technical Edge) Trading is nothing but a game probability. Moreover, we consider ourselves risk managers not only traders, as the only thing we have control over is "risk". The market can go anywhere. To be on the winning side, we need to have an edge over the market. One way to put the odds in our favor is by only entering trades when we have at least three confluences/clues, three things telling us to buy or sell lined-up together. One confluence may be random. For example, we only enter when we have a pattern, support, and divergence. And our rules have to be objective following a well-defined back tested trading plan. I personally use RichTL to make objective (rule-based) technical analysis. 4- 1 / 2 Risk Reward Ratio. (Risk Management Edge) Our second edge is going to be through risk and money management by entering with a positive risk-reward ratio. Remember, it is not about how many trades you win, what matters is how much you win when you win, and how much you lose when you lose. That’s exactly why we enter with a ½ RRR (or higher), which means we always target double our stop loss. This way even with a 50% win rate, we are still profitable. 5- Emotional stability. In the trading world, emotions are considered the enemy of traders. Knowing how to control emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure. When getting into a bad trade, the trader who can manage his psychology well will be able to minimize risk, while the trader who is emotional may make the situation worse. Therefore, knowing how to control your emotions very crucial in order to succeed in Forex trading. If you are not feeling well, don't trade. Remember: You don't have to catch every trade, and you don't have to trade every week. In fact, our 5 rules are all connected in a way or another. If you invest money you can’t afford to lose or enter with 10% risk per trade, chances are that you will get emotional and not follow your trading plan objectively by closing your trades before reaching 2R or even entering trades that are not according to your strategy. In parallel, even if you invest money you can afford to lose and risk 1% per trade, you won’t be consistently profitable if you don’t have a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market technically or through risk management. In brief, stay away from trading if you don’t have these 5 rules.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
100
The Most Common Emotions For TradersThe Most Common Emotions For Traders J: Joyful Traders feel joyful and happy seeing the security hit a new high. H: Hope Traders hope the uptrend will resume after the other traders stop profit-taking. S: Scare Traders are scare and worry that the price will continue to drop. Traders have to make a difficult decision to sell at a loss or hold on to the security as the price continues to fall. R: Regret Traders regretted not selling at the previous high price. E: Excitement Traders have new excitement when they see the price bottom as an opportunity to go long. M: More Confident Traders feel more confident with the second bottom valley. I: Indecision Traders cannot make a decision temporarily to trade higher or lower. Thank you for reading! Greenfield Remember to click "Like" and "Follow!" Disclosure: Article written by Greenfield. A market idea by Greenfield Analysis LLC for educational material only.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by GreenfieldAnalysis
There are no emotional problem in reality...???There are no EMOTIONAL PROBLEM in reality. The problem, you are facing is you do not have any back-tested STRATEGY/SKIL L of identifying what if I do will I get the trades. Another words, you are trying to search a fallen needle in entire city in a limited time. You don’t know what to trade? Which stock(trade) to go for shorting? Should I have to select Short selling or long? Even If I Select at what time should I enter & then exit? => But time is ticking away , worry, concern, , apprehensiveness, consternation, uneasiness, fearfulness, disquiet, fretfulness, agitation, angst, nervousness, tension, stress, misgiving, foreboding, suspense etc.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trade-Technique
19
Update to previously posted GU trade. Afternoon traders This is a update on a previously posted idea from only a few hours ago. It was a trade on GBPUSD on the 30M time. The script I am using is set on this pair at a 1:2 risk reward. I simply take the trade set my stop loss and take profit and let it play out like today's trade. I can get on with the rest of my day knowing I have a proven back tested strategy just working away. The trade played out and hit the take profit target. That takes this pair traded this way with 2% capital risked per trade to 243% net profit year to date. This isn't a brag post it's to show the potential of the script I am using and I have added notes on the chart showing where I might of exited the trade without using the script because emotions would of come into play when the retrace started to occur. Using the strategy removes those emotions and I simply let a prove plan play out. For any more information on the script I am using please drop me a message.
Long
by RichScott
This is how easy GBPNZD has been to trade in last 5 days Hello traders Just wanted to share an idea on how the script I am using is making my trading so easy and clear. Here is GBPNZD on the 45M chart. Two back to back trades working the script I'm using to a take profit target with a stop loss target. These two trades banked 260 pips in 5 days! All back test data at bottom of page showing results on this pair year to date. Such simplistic trend based trading you follow the signals that present on the chart. Enter the trade, set the stop loss and take profit then let the trade run it's course. This helps remove so much emotions knowing you are working to a proven strategy with all possibles out comes covered. It also prevents you closing trades too early for less profit. I've put some examples of where in the past I would of closed for profit too soon or even worse cutting losses and possibly missing out on any eventual profit. For any more info on the script I'm using then please drop me a message.
by RichScott
27
The importance of working to a trading strategy. Morning traders Just wanted to share these thoughts on the importance of finding trading plans and strategies then sticking to those plans. In my last idea I discussed the importance of holding trades and not to deviate of track. That idea was working the H2 chart following the trend with a stop loss on AUDJPY pair and the trade has been running since 24th November. The script I am running allows me to run numerous strategies to the way I would like to trade. This certainly helps with removing emotions when it comes to trading. Coupled to a built in back tester which reassures on how effective your trading plan could be. These idea in question here is EURGBP pair trade on the 15M chart with a stop loss and take profit target implemented. Risk to reward is 1:2.5 First thing I want to touch on is even though we are trading on a lower time frame here patience is still key. Along with letting trades run there course to the trading plan that is implemented. Back test data for the plan implemented on this pair shows 122% gains on initial investment from Feb 1st of this year. Working to a 1:2.5 RR and a 2% capital risk per trade. We have two back to back trades here which produced 135 pips of profit. Despite being on 15M time frame the two trades took two an half days to play out. If I wasn't sticking to a rigid back tested plan I might have been tempted to close for profit too early or worse still close at the point the trade entered the loss zone. Thus missing out on the eventual outcome which was hitting the take profit target! Emotions are a massive element for us traders to control. The strategy I am using has helped massively with emotion control for myself. For more information on the script I am using please message me.
by RichScott
Bitcoin hype is back. Is it a good buy? No (ponzi).Bitcoin perma bulls are back! After hiding for over 6 months they came back to celebrate once again. Took long enough. Bitcoin bagholders pretending they are making money even though regulators are saying they overwhelmingly lose, it is so bad actually that they had to ban crypto CFDS. This casino market is purely driven by the emotions of hysterical teenage girls with poor intellectual abilities. Let me correct that. Emotions + random indicators. It might be a coincidence but if it is not it is a big goldmine to extract. 15R?! Even 10R! Even 5 would be well worth risking it! Are these rallies on the 2D chart following an MA cross a coincidence? Who knows. I cannot wait for the next crash and MA cross. CFDS got banned so I'll have to send money to a crypto exchange. No point trading BTC now, I would rather wait for something I have high certainty with. Who cares about missing out? Meanwhile I did not care about missing out and I just made 8 times my money at risk on the way up between the 21 October and late November.... I made some good calls I had high certainty of (the 8R I mentioned): The problem with this short is I knew it would happen but I did not know when, and it took forever as usual with Bitcoin. So in the end I have this idea with the right timing but I waited so long for it. It is much easier to make money on the upside, abusing dumb money (and Bitcoin has no shortage of that). According to en.ethereumworldnews.com Bitcoin bagholders hold their coins for 2.7 years (1000 days) but the holding period of the angry baggy in the comments has to be lower, I think people that buy some BTC and store it and forget about it ... wait for it ... forget about it. When the price has been up 66.6% (2/3) above the MA 200 we have witnessed thrill. I might be biased because CFDS got banned which means I am not looking for a buy anymore. Except I am not biased. I did my buy, and now I do not see a clear opportunity. For those that worry about missing out well then they should buy. If you do not want to miss out you buy simple. For me, missing out is not an issue, I will often miss out and I just do not care, and so now I am taking no action. It might be a buy later on but let's be real here, the BTC permaidiots are not going to read this, and I like playing with them, so my title will be no. I want to draw a big red line going to zero but this would get in the way of my annotations and not make sense. Next time big red line to zero. Hopefully the plebes - of they see this idea - only read the big red letters saying pyramid scheme and amuse us with their rage comments ^^ Nevermind I will draw a big red line anyway but also a green one. I cannot tell where we are but I think thrill has started, we are not in euphoria yet but it could be baggies being silent because they think it will magically make the price keep going up, or it could be interest in this ponzi has permanently vanished. No clear conclusions are possible ==> No trade. The conclusions are very clear for perma bulls but they always are no matter what. What is the point of them sharing their opinion? Making us laugh? They are just bullish all the time no matter what, 0 added value. And on the flip side, big panic when the price is down by 33.3% from their average price. Some crypto brokers give leverage. So maybe it will be worth it. Only need to lock as much capital as one wants to risk. Send 100$, for a 10% SL at 12k for example you aim to risk 100 just use 10 leverage and that's it, no wasted capital. Or send $100 to risk 100 with a 20% SL, a long term hold here, aiming to make possibly 1000 or more. Send an additional 50 to pay for rollovers and to have some freedom. Purely hypothetical: If you buy 1 Bitcoin at 15000 your max risk is 15000 if all hell breaks loose, and a 20% SL is 3000 + interests. Those are 6 months to 2 years holds. If Bitcoin goes into an actual bull market there is no reason to take short term trades, the logical time horizons will be those ones. Much better for taxes than lots of tiny trades that these shady crypto exchanges wipe clean of their history. If there is a real opportunity then it is really really hard to miss it. Active investors literally can not miss an opportunity. It's over weeks and we are supposed to check regularly. How do you miss? Just get drunk and avoid the price for 3 months? Even not looking at it you'll hear about it somewhere, somehow. It is impossible to miss a good opportunity. If we miss it it means it was not a good opportunity. So wait and see now. Watch silly perma bulls celebrate now and then stress out and cry later as usual. Let the FOMO crowd chase the top. They laughed at me for missing out 2019 "new bull market" which was not one, and then without trying I made a better return that they would have made if BTC went to 100k, and it has only gotten to 20k for now. And my capital was not frozen this whole time (I had lots of fun in April with literal free money on Oil futures, while they were in heart attack mode after BTC fell back to 3k). I did not make an enormous job on myself to fight my feelings of regret, I just do not have them to start with. Why do people have regret and fomo? Noobs. The longer the time span, the more people with rules and skill outperform the fomo crowd. 3 years just to get back to ath. Each bull market has been slower, so if the trend continues (which makes sense) this will take even longer and we will have more time and it will be even harder to miss an opportunity (time will tell if it will be a win or a loss). Bitcoin 10K never again. Until it completely collapses and goes to zero. But we'll let permabull bagholders worry about that 🙃, we'll have sold long ago when that happens. Also maybe Ursula, Biden, and Xi make a surprise ban in the next 2 years. I already repeated enough times not to fomo and to use reasonable position sizing people here are all grown ups and will make their own decisions (most BTC permabulls are not but I don't make the rules).
BNC:BLX
by MrRenev
39
Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls ***************** I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months. This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019): " The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me) They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later) You won't hear again from them They will miss the actual next bull market " And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏 A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video. I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling. I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas. Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments. After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now? Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up. I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared. The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode. And they are all gone. Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson. Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble. And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly. This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013. On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary. Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know. Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down. The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only". For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end". They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone. I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to. You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300): ***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached ***************** Follow up to this: Got to target but does not mean it is over. European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍 So typical and therefore so predictable People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead. And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet. My trailing stop is at 4R right now.
GEMINI:BTCUSD
by MrRenev
5