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Elliotwaveanalysis

US 10Y : "FED vs MARKETS" (...who will win?)Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish impulse with wave 5 formation. Does this bullish pattern meet economic fundamentals over the medium term? ...What is your opinion? -------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------- ...trade with care! 👍 If you think that my analysis is useful, please... "Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers!
TVC:US10YLong
by TheAnonymousBanker
23
$AFRM COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS Observing the price action of NASDAQ:AFRM , it is evident that it has been navigating through a corrective wave since its inception. Recently, it has culminated the larger corrective Wave B, under which it has also completed the primary Wave C. The completion of Wave C was marked by the termination of Wave 5. This progression implies that NASDAQ:AFRM is now embarking on the larger Wave C, which is anticipated to descend below the trough of Wave A. Based on my analysis, I project the termination of Wave C near the $4 mark. However, it's important to note that the exact timing and price level remain uncertain while the bearish POI stands firm
NASDAQ:AFRMShort
by thekidtrader11
2
🅱️ Elliot Wave 2023, The Correct Count & Wave 3, 4 & 5 Targets After a major correction is over, a new impulse move develops. The next 5-up wave pattern is already taking place and we have the 1st and 2nd waves already in. The third wave is usually the longest and this one has already started. How the wave will look like is impossible to predict, it can be steep it, can be flat, it can be easy or hard to read... This varies wildly. We can look for certain levels though where the probability is highest for a wave to end, we can use Elliots rules. The peak of Wave 1 happened at $24,240, if we extract the 0.618 from this value and add it up to the peak price we get around $39,220 and that can be the top of Wave 3 . Wave 4 is the hard part for me, I don't know if the correction will be long or short in duration. Wave 2 lasted 37 days and this can be considered long based on the fact that it took 2 months to complete wave 1. If we take into consideration the law of alternation then Wave 4 should be short in duration, specially since Wave 3 is also likely to happen fast as the first week is really strong. So Wave 4 based on these calculations should go for 1-3 weeks and hit as low as $27,000, it can go lower and hit $25,000 but never below $23,000. On a strong bullish bias the main target range is between $27,000 and $29,000 (Wave 4 correction target). Wave 5 is the speculative wave and the last wave of the impulse before a correction in proportion with the previous move takes place, meaning a strong correction. Now, I have several projections for Wave 5. $54,000 $60,000 and $63,000. Your guess is as good as mine. I am taking in consideration all of Elliots rule, literally when making these projections. These are just projections and are not meant to predict the future. As the waves develop, we have to adjust our count to match what actually happens. What this system can do is help us build a map to navigate these markets but it can't tell us what is happening next, that's not how it works. This is my analysis based on Elliot Wave Theory, this is not the method that I use for trading nor chart reading in general but it is always a great addition to our toolkit. Just as we look at the indicators, the candlesticks, renko, price action, chart patterns and fundamentals, this is a tool that should be combined with others to give it further strength. If my target matches using multiple different systems, it becomes more relevant to me than in the case that it doesn't show up anywhere else. My targets are more conservative on my Bitcoin long trade but this looks good as the financial markets are crashing and we tend to underestimate the markets when coming out of a bearish wave. All comments are welcome, positive or negative, in favor or against. Feel free to share, open yourself... All questions are welcomed, I'll do my best to give an honest reply to what you have to say. Thank you for reading. Welcome to the Spring. Namaste.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by AlanSantana
12
USDJPY: Riding the conclusion of Wave 5Greetings fellow traders, I extend my best wishes for a prosperous New Year to you all. Allow me to share my analysis of the USDJPY market. As we can all observe, the pair is currently in a bullish trend, having exhibited the attributes of an impulsive 5-wave pattern. It seems we may be witnessing the conclusion of the last impulsive wave, assuming it is not truncated. The market appears to be in sub-wave 4 within the final wave 5. As such, I anticipate an impulsive upward movement, taking out the previous high at 145.977. My optimal entry point is at the 145.157 price level, where I anticipate market to find support. The projected targets for this analysis are 146.883, 147.554, and the extreme upper border of the channel at 148.184. This outlook would be invalidated if the price were to dip below 144.315. There is CPI report today. Market may whipsaw in both directions, trade with caution. Thanks, and cheers to a more profitable 2024.
Long
by Samuel124
1
I'm Bullish. Here's WhyHi Traders, PLTR is oversold on the 2HR, 4HR, and daily charts and has nearly completed a corrective wave. This corrective wave is denoted by the yellow ABC pattern (also known as a Zig Zag pattern) in Elliot Wave analysis. The Wave Trend indicator is extremely oversold since the signal is far below the green boundary as shown on the chart. I anticipate PLTR will close the small gap around the $14.96-$15.94 area, which is also a BULLISH demand zone and a trend support zone. I've decided to use this area as an entry zone. Once price is in this area, consider a bullish position targeting $17. If PLTR closes above $17, target $18.64 based on harmonic pattern analysis, which currently indicates a bullish Gartley. Here's my bullish case, strictly using Technical Analysis: Harmonics PLTR is showing three bullish harmonic patterns (Gartley, Black Swan, and Anti-Nen Star). I'd like to focus on the gartley pattern, which statistically has a 75% likelihood in reaching T1 ($18.66). In the chart below, you can also see the oversold RSI at a value of 28.74 Price Action There is a bearish order block around the $14.75 as denoted in the chart below. Bearish traders sold PLTR back in NOV 23, but PLTR didn't decline further in price. Instead, it gapped up, which indicates Bearish traders exhausted their selling power and will likely be eager to close their positions by buying PLTR at this price point, thereby constituting a bullish demand zone. Trends Trend resistance is $16.98 with trend support at $14.40 as denoted by the trend lines on the chart below. The 200 period moving average (yellow line) is $14.80, which coincides with trend line support, gap analysis, and price action order blocks. I consider this strong support for now. The 9 period (purple line) 21 period (blue line) moving averages act as resistance (for now) and are $16.74 and $17.31 respectively. Both coincide with trend resistance at $16.98. The chart also shows positive divergence on the VMMACD and MACD indicators. Trading Plan I trade options, and while I do own several hundred shares of PLTR, I generate income by selling CALL and PUT options based on the volatility (i.e. price swings) of PLTR. Since I anticipate PLTR is nearing a LOW, I will likely sell several $14 or $15 PUTs option with a 45 DTE (Date Till Expiration) to collect premium. When PLTR reaches my upside targets, I will sell COVERED CALL options (maybe $18 or $19 strikes) to collect premium, because I know that these upside targets act as supply zones (i.e resistance) and price may decline from these areas. Happy Trading!
P
by chiefwils0n
4
DUOL: In the mid-term resistance zoneWhile I like DUOL from fundamentals and momentum leadership perspective, my interpretation of the price structure calls to be very careful to any potential sell- or trend-changing signs. 227-264 area is the zone of important resistance for the first leg of an uptrend trend, starting from May'22 lows. Until price is closing bellow 264 level, I cannot disregard the these perspective of mid-term pullback to 140-100 area, that may present exceptional opportunities to get onboard for the potential triple digits run in several years. If price move beyond 264 resistance level, suggested price structure needs to be revised. Signs of potential trend reversal would be: 1. Break bellow 8/21 ema on volume and distribution signs; 2. Break bellow 2021 top (205)*; 3. Break bellow 50d and 10w MAs on volume increase. I remain very bullish and optimistic long-term for this name. * that could trigger double-top short set-up with 205 as a covering guide
NASDAQ:DUOL
by artemfedorov
5 waves impulse down visible in NIFTY from topNSE:NIFTY hourly chart shows 5 wave impulse down as of now. In this case, a pullback towards 21800/21900 should occur followed by another fall which should take the prices in 21300/21400 zone at least. Assuming this is wave A of the correction downwards, pullback would be B followed by another impulse C down. Note that this is ideal scenario and the correction could become complex (WXY/WXYXZ). Let's go step by step and follow what's visible in charts and will update as and when something changes. Note that 5 can turn into 9/13 if the first leg of this fall remains impulsive and it could also end up being 7/11 waves but we'll cross that bridge when it comes.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by YetAnotherTA
$COIN COMPLETE ELLIOT WAVE ANALYSIS Observations indicate that NASDAQ:COIN is currently within the fifth wave of a broader wave C. Notably, yesterday saw a reversal from the 0.5 retracement level, signaling the completion of wave 4 and readiness for the forthcoming wave 5. It is customary for wave 1 and wave 5 to exhibit equality in length, a consequence of the extended wave 3. Anticipating this pattern, I project that wave 5 will reach the 3.618 extension, approximately at $315, thereby concluding both wave 5 and wave C in their entirety.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by thekidtrader11
3
USD/JPY: The Trend is still bullish in mid term....Hi everybody! On weekly Chart the trend is bullish , but although the pair formed a nice impulsive rally, at the moment, I still consider the main trend as a big corrective pattern (ABC Pattern). Even though the price rejected from 149.25 area (wave C), the wave was very steep and I don't rule out its transformation into an impulsive wave (12345). If this happens an ABCDE Pattern ( Flat Correction ) is possible. One aspect that should not be underestimated is the BoJ's changing of the guard. Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor of the Bank of Japan, succeeding current central bank chief Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Both houses of Japan’s parliament now need to approve Ueda’s nomination. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s ruling coalition has a majority in both chambers. Parliamentary hearings are likely to take place on Feb. 24, Nikkei reported. Kishida recently emphasized the need for the next central bank governor to have “global communication skills” and be able to coordinate closely with global peers , Reuters reported, citing his comments in parliament... ...Current governor Kuroda was first appointed in March 2013. He has led the central bank’s ultra-dovish monetary policy , including maintaining a negative interest rate since 2016 – even as global peers have been hiking to tackle inflation . His current five-year term will end on April 8. Bank of America Global Research expects gradual policy normalization under the central bank’s new leadership instead of an abrupt change, according to the firm’s economists led by Izumi Devalier. The team said in a report that completely removing the central bank’s yield curve control – a policy of maintaining 10-year Japanese government bond yields within a 50-basis-point range of 0% – won’t happen any time soon. “We continue to think a change in the BoJ’s policy framework (including abandoning YCC and negative interest rates) will be delayed until mid-2024,” the economists said, adding that they expect to see “flexibility” in changing the current policy instead. The economists added that it’s “only a matter of time” before the Bank of Japan tweaks its yield curve control policy, and that they expect to see changes within the first half of 2023. Japan’s government also reportedly announced its nominees for other central bank roles including Shinichi Uchida, currently the central bank’s executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief of Japan’s Financial Services Agency. “The government’s reported deputy governor picks are also well-suited to address the challenge of streamlining and winding down the BoJ’s expansive easing program, in our view,” the BofA economists said in their report ahead of the announcement. On trading side, technically speaking, if the trend is bullish , it should be correct to try to take Long position on any pullback or corrective structure above 132 area. Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
12
GOLD, will CPI news confirm the downtrend?Hello everyone, after a predicted pullback from 1980 area Gold reached it's highest point at 2088 and turned bearish again. To be honest I didn't expect the move to extend so high, but these things can happen. Finally it's likely that Gold topped out wave B at 2088 and started wave C with the main target at 1920. So far nothing new (check my latest analysis). How will CPI news effect Gold tomorrow? There is no clear answer to this question, as we have to observe the next move of the dollar, which started a slight counter trend. If it will break over the local resistances formed within the last days, Gold will fall further. Important levels for Gold Resistance area: 2040 - 2050 Support areas: 2000 - 2010 and 1970 - 1980 Elliot wave analysis If wave C started at 2088, we probably have seen most of the first wave down, which you can see in red on the chart. I don't see an impulsive decline, so this scenario is quiet likely. The exact position for the subwave count are always hard to figure out, so please look for confirmation before you make a trade. Trade idea Sell 2032-2040 with TP 2010 and SL 2051 Buy 2000-2010 with TP 2030 and SL 1998
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Kyrean
ELLIOTT WAVE Forecast: Euro and Pound Under PressureHello Traders, From my previous short call on GBPUSD on the 13th of December (), I noted some economic indices that favours US dollar over GBP. The analysis is unfolding pretty well. The British pound (GBP) continues to face strong pressure from the U.S. dollar, causing it to lose its position after the impulsive breakout of the ending diagonal at 1.27035. This was expected, but we haven't reached the predicted target yet. With the Euro (euro) also expected to decline, it's unlikely the pound will recover. Looking at the currency pair, it seems the pound is about to drop more. This is due to a complex correction in the market trend. So, it's a good idea to stick with selling the pound (GBP). If the price drops below 1.2610 and stays there, I will consider selling more towards the final leg wave (Y). I will keep selling GBPUSD at 1.2610, and if the price goes below, I will sell more. My stop loss is set at 1.2635 and I aim to take profit at 1.2470 or lower. I will keep an eye on the market for any changes. Cheers and happy trading.
Short
by Samuel124
ETH bull run This chart is a simple Elliot wave analysis of the cryptocurrency Ethereum. This chart is on the monthly timeframe using a line chart for a clearer picture. The starting point is an impulse leg with a small pullback with indicates impulse instead of correction. Price after completing 5 legs with an extended 3rd leg finally topped and retraced perfectly to the 0.786 Fibonacci level. The retracement was also a near perfect fib extension of first corrective wave down (not drawn). At the current moment price appears to have finished the correction with the final (Y) wave down and shown impulsive wave characteristics. I predict a bull run from here and suggest buying for a long term hold whenever the market has a pullback.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by snipdapipz
Crude in Wave 3 - Bullish ChannelBasically and continuation of previous published idea. Wave counts have been updated and the low at Wave 2 sets the lower channel. Wave 1 ended and was followed by and expanded flat Wave 2. Continued movement above the bearish downtrend channel continues to give great confidence we are seeing a trend change to bullish movement. Friday's closing looks to have ended with an ABCDE triangle that will end in a Wave 5 on a lesser count. I'll take a snapshot of my minutes count and add to the replies. Overall, I'm bullish. Looking to buy dips and will likely see and end to this wave in the 80's. Thoughts and ideas only and charts and comments not meant for trading decisions of any kind. I advise you to due your own diligence, keep your own counsel, and trade at your own risk.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by HedgehogLanding
4