EURUSD is turning bullish on hawkish ECB commentsWe are now finally seeing a reversal on stocks into risk-on mode as USD trades lower. China is also looking to stimulate its economy to fight the recent economic issues because of Covid. EURUSD is turning up and looks like there will be more upside coming on hawkish ECB comments. ECB's de Cos just mentioned that the APP will end at the start of Q3, and that hike will be shortly after. They are also very optimistic about the inflation that will gradually slow down towards the 2% goal.
From an Elliott wave perspective, we see nice five waves up so more gains can follow after a three wave retracement. So if you want to look for longs, waiting on a pullback may not be a bad idea.
Elliottwavecount
MSFT: Bears Have Taken Control Over BullsMSFT has accomplished the corrective wave (b) and started falling for wave (c) of wave (4).
Traders can expect the following targets: 289 - 272 - 265 for wave (c).
Here, 273 is the Fibonacci level of 50% of the wave. This level will act as a crucial level.
An uptrend is only possible after the breakout of the parallel channel . As per the wave principle, a new trend can unfold above/below wave B of the previous correction.
BTC in accumulation from 4/2021. Long-term bullish triangle!Today I want to present my main scenario. As long as 37400 holds I give this scenario the highest probabillity. I have identified an expanded triangle in the WB of the triagnle. Foundation for this scenario is WB which made HH and WC which has corrective nature and was unable to make LL thus it made HL. Now we are moving up in WD which is a complex correction with heavily overlapping structure. It is however still making HHs and HLs. As long this is the case we should be bullish. We have already seen some bullish indications such as D engulfing and swept liquidity below 39k. The probabillity of this scenario increases if we manage to get the confirmations labelled on the chart. If this scenario is correct we should finished the triagnle by summer and ultimately move to ATHs towards the end of the year (and perhaps reached the mythic 100k).
We are forming our gameplan based on the indentified patterns which give us higher probabillity (they have been proven statistically significant) which in the long run should give us an edge (alfa = overperformance) in the markets. However, we should also be prepared for the alternative scenarios with lower probabillity so that we dont suffer large losses or get wiped out, even if it means limiting our profits and cutting losses when we are proven wrong. As TWC says, the only thing you can control in the markets is how much are you going to lose.
EURNZD Trade Idea - Elliott WaveLet’s discuss the price chart of the EURNZD currency pair based on the 120 minute timeframe.
From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price action is moving in a corrective channel within Wave (iv). It is approaching a critical Fibonacci retracement level of .618 which should act as resistance.
From the Hurst Cycles perspective, the composite model line which measures the combined cyclical pressure, topped on April 1st (red vertical line), and is projected to form a bottom on April 25th.
Based on this, we can expect prices to break below the corrective channel and head lower from there. Beyond that the low of Wave (iii) will act as an important support level, however, this leg down which would be wave (v) should ultimately break below this level.
If you find this analysis useful, make sure to press the “Like” button and comment.
Will Bitcoin reach $1,00,000 Before 2022?Bitcoin prices were moving upward at the beginning of 2021. But, its investors have seen heavy downfall into May to June. Afterward, it has hiked from 28600 to above 51356 .
According to Elliott's wave theory, it's running under the 4th wave. We may see a sideways trend here. Bitcoin is preparing for a solid uptrend ahead. It's a right to jump on Bitcoin for the long-term investment.
And the correction can be between the range of 28600 to 50000 because it will start marching for $1,00,000 soon.
Kindly note, this target is for long-term investors only. If you're looking for an accurate entry-level, wait for my next update. I'm planning to analyze it on a lower timeframe for the short-term investors. It can be helpful to catch the upcoming correction.
EWT: CADJPY Preparing for 93.84Price has completed the C leg of corrective wave Primary ((4)), and the price will march for impulsive wave ((5)).
Wave Formations:
Wave ((1))
- Leading diagonal
- Formed on extreme low
- Termination sub-wave 5 is smaller than 3
Wave ((2))
- Zigzag
- 50% of wave ((1))
- Ended near the sub-wave 4 of an impulsive wave.
Wave ((3))
- Impulse (Five wave move)
- Extended 2.618% of wave 1
Wave ((4))
- Running triangle/running flat
- 38.2% of wave ((3))
- Ended above wave (b)
Wave ((5))
- Wave ((1)) was a leading diagonal, so wave ((5)) can't form as a diagonal. It will be an impulsive wave.
- Wave 3 can end near 161.8% of the 4th wave at 93.492.
- Wave 1= Wave 5 at 93.765
- Wave 5 can complete after touching the parallel channel at 93.849.
We can expect the following targets: 91.46-92.29-93.849
🔥 Natural gas will rise in price three times 🥶●● Preferred count
● NATURALGAS ( Currency.com ) 🕐TF:1W
Globally, the price of natural gas is driven by the third wave of the Grand Supercycle , within which the final wave (V) is developing. Wave (IV) that preceded it took the shape of a w-x-y double zigzag , although one should not exclude further complication before a sideways correction.
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:1D
Behind the most powerful part of the wave ① of I — Third of a Third — 3 of (3) , on the horizon — a less rapid growth in the fifth waves, followed by a series of downward corrections.
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:4h
A correction by wave 4 is expected in the form of an expanded flat , the target for which may be the area of the previous fourth .
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:2h
Wave ⓒ of 4 , presumably, is unfolding the ending diagonal .
●● Alternative count
● NATGASUSD ( OANDA )🕐TF:2h
As an alternative count — wave 4 of (3) is a running contracting triangle . This interpretation implies the resumption of growth within wave 5 from the current levels.
Long position under the conditions of the implementation of the main scenario seems to me less risky, but the alternative count also offers good opportunities for long at current prices.
NIFTYHello and a warm welcome to this analysis on Nifty
In lower time frame Nifty appears to be in sub wave 4 which might complete between 18200-18300 and then resume another rally.
A confirmation of sub wave 4 done would be it sustaining above 18500 for an hour.
Its advisable to use the up coming resistance around the upper trend line to book profits in the coming terminal waves.
The view would be wrong if it starts breaking below 18200.
Trading Chaos Part 4 | Elliott WavesHello, everyone!
Today we are going to spot the most important and challenging part of Trading Chaos by Bill Williams(BW) – the Elliott waves. This analysis is the most efficient in combination with other techniques of Trading Chaos. Market always moves with the waves and BW developed the conception which eliminate the uncertainty of Elliott Waves. In this article we will consider every wave and explain how to spot their target areas.
First of all we need to understand the 5 “magic bullets” which kill the trend. They are:
Divergence with the Oscillator
Target zone
The squat bar at the one of three top bars
Fractal at the top
Momentum change
Today we are goin to consider only the target zone. Other tools we will reveal in the next articles about Trading Chaos.
How to spot Wave 1 start?
Research the last wave from the previous trend. This should be wave 5 or c. This last wave have the typical structure of waves with less scale. You can use the technique for Wave 5 end defining to spot when trend is finished.
How to spot Wave 1 end?
Search the 5-waves structure inside the Wave 1. You also should spot the 5-th wave end. Use the 5 “magic bullets” which usually kill the trend.
We are probably at the beginning of the initial phase of wave 3Tomorrow (10/09/2021) we could experience the confirmation of the initial phase of wave 3, since today the price could not penetrate the zone of the lows that RHE left on September 7. This is a possible signal to enter in the purchase of the fractal major: it began with the low of August 17, in September 31 completed its first wave.
The key is that in the morning session and next sessions comfirm the floor that was created in the last Tuesday, September 7, is not broken. Its greater if the confirmation of the movement are quickly to upwards.
This idea may take until Friday, September 24 to be completed
We are probably at the beginning of the initial phase of wave 3Tomorrow (10/09/2021) we could experience the confirmation of the initial phase of wave 3, since today the price could not penetrate the zone of the lows that PETV left yesterday. This is a possible signal to enter in the purchase of the fractal major: it began with the low of August 25, in September 1 completed its first wave.
The key is in this morning session, and next sessions to comfirm that the floor that was created last Tuesday is not broken. Its greater if the confirmation of the movement are quickly upwards.
This idea may take till Friday, September 17 to be completed.
Good luck! :)
🚀𝘾𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙖𝙣𝙤 (#𝘼𝘿𝘼𝙐𝙎𝘿) — 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙬𝙖𝙫𝙚...🌠●● 𝘾𝙖𝙧𝙙𝙖𝙣𝙤 (#𝘼𝘿𝘼𝙐𝙎𝘿) — 𝙀𝙒𝘼
● ADAUSDT (BINANCE): 🕐1D
The rocketing five-wave advance forms a nearly perfect impulse , in which the fifth wave is expected to rise.
Extension by the third wave, alternating waves 2-4 , touching by the top of wave 4 to channels 1-2-3 — all this is a harbinger of growth by wave 5 , which on its way, most likely, will go beyond the extremum of wave 4 of (1) .
● ADAUSDT (BINANCE): 🕐6h
Tentative targets for wave 5 , unless, of course, we go into extension, are located in the area marked in pink . Further, a decline is expected by the intermediate wave (2) to the area of the previous fourth wave.
The wave marking in the double circle parenthesis corresponds to the green marking in the circle on the chart.
Possible leg up in Elliott Wave count for BTCI just analyzed the run up from bitcoin in Elliott Wave theory and it was quite difficult to define the last correction, as it is somewhat vertical. But continuing the Elliott cycle, there is theoretically, also due to the subdivisions seen in lower capitals, only 2 types of correction possible: ABCDE or a complex WXYXZ. If we would stay in the 'not so nice' but validated symmetrical triangle, we would have a ABCDE with shortened D and E correctional wave. If not, we could have a longer horizontal continuation which would get out of the ascending parallel. In case we are clearly going down the large ascending parallel, my Elliott count is wrong, and the ratio in divisions and subdivisions isn't correct. Though the abc subdivisions of the last larger correctional wave is in my opinion a higher probability, they are just shortened in to time and thus hanging on a horizontal level, which indicates again the symmetrical triangle.
Also we still have the larger inverted H&S preceding, with an outplay to 68 or 70K.. In white and visible wave, the first possible uptrend in a subdivision 12345 Elliott wave impulse.
SPX Elliott wave count daily. 101 probable count1/ This new idea is based on the previous idea below, rsi possible extended 1st wave like our spx. Nothing guaranteed
here just an amazing similarities (chart # 1).
2/ The previous idea is coming handy for "Gaps behavior " and how they usually appear in waves 3 & C. Well it kind
of supporting this idea of an extended 1st wave. Here it is below (chart # 2).
3/ Combining these together kind of make the argument for and extended 1st wave is more probable, or not.
4/ So what's next, well Elliott Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Guidelines for an extended wave 1 as follow:
If wave 1 is extended, then the size of wave 3 through to the end of wave 5 is often 61.8% – 78.6% relative to the size of wave 1
If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 and 4 are very likely to be shallow (i.e. 23.6% – 38.2%)
If wave 1 is extended, then wave 2 will often end at the level of sub-wave 4 of 1 (i.e. the internal wave 4 of wave 1)
4/ That's would put the probable target for this bull's move since March's low between .61-79 fibs with
minimum requirement @ 4122:
ZIGZAG CORRECTION IN GOLDAs recently GOLD (XAUUSD) was rising, we have recognized the completion of the five waves up followed by lower degree five waves down. REMEBER: Five wave move against the major trend indicates the beginning of correction, specifically ZIGZAG CORRECTION. Therefore, we expect ABC zigzag correction that later will be followed by continuation of the trend to the upside.
The same movement is expected to take place in SILVER (XAGUSD), therefore you can capitalize your self through this positive correlation.
WHAT ARE YOUR OBSERVATIONS ON THIS, PUT THEM IN COMMNET SECTION.
🍫The Swiss franc continues its global growth against the dollar●● Mine scenario
🕐 1M
FX_IDC:USDCHF
Most likely, the sideways correction is unfolding by wave (b) in the form of a contracting triangle , followed by a downward exit in a five-wave structure (c) . The wave count allows you to keep the ratio I > III > V on a logarithmic scale.
🕐 1W
FX:USDCHF
🕐 2D
FX:USDCHF
Pic. 3
Pic. 4
In the daily timeframe, there are two co-directional count options: with a single (pic.3) and a double zigzag (pic.4) in the wave b of (b) . The first of which allows us to consider the transformation of one of the subsequent subwaves c , d or e to a multiple zigzag or triangle .
🕐 4h
FX:USDCHF
Wave 3 of (3) is likely to be extending. Next, a series of corrections is expected in the fourth waves, at the end of which, under certain conditions, a long position can be set.
●● Alternative scenario
🕐 1W
FX:USDCHF
The alternative count of the higher wave degree still has the probability of transforming " Supercycle " (b) to a double zigzag w-x-y .
The wave marking in the double circle parenthesis corresponds to the green marking in the circle on the chart.
BTCUSD 15 m / short term /Very hard correction.
wave abc / blue / is zig zag
wave c / blue - diagonal
wave abc blue - create wave (a) /yellow/
wave abc white is zig zag and create wave (w) white.
wave (x) is connector
wave 12345 white is expanded diagonal for create wave (1) green
wave (1) - (5) green is leading diagonal for create wave a orange
Wave b orange is zig zag
wave 2 white is zig zag
wave 4 triangle or flat ( in this time )
One more Up for finish all waves ... wave 5 white, for finish wave c orange, for finish wave (y) white and finish wave (b) yellow.
This is the full EW count