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CIBR: Cybersecurity Stocks Surge Into Year EndIt has been a record year... for cyber extortion. Orange Cyberdefense data, detailed in a Bloomberg article this week, reveal that there have been four straight quarters of increased corporate victims of hacks and financial blackmails. Major recent cyberattacks include those on MGM Grand, Clorox, Boeing, and China’s ICBC just this year alone. It is all good news for companies engaged in protecting against the increasing threat of large-scale ransomware attacks, among other tech-based crimes. While shares of CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks have been strong lately, investors can play the trend at a higher level through the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR). The $5.9 billion fund has a moderate 0.60% expense ratio, and it pays a modest 0.3% dividend yield. The issuer notes that the portfolio’s price-to-earnings ratio is lofty at 27.7x, but Morningstar reports that the ETF’s long-term earnings growth rate is respectable near 10%. To boot, you also get some semiconductor chip exposure, too. For traders, CIBR’s momentum has been off the charts lately. Up seven weeks in a row, the basket of cybersecurity names has risen from the low $40s to the mid- FWB:50S as we head into 2024. A key thematic play, with fundamental strength (see CrowdStrike’s earnings late last month), I see the potential for CIBR to continue to rally, though shares have historically consolidated over the first 10 weeks of the year. As it stands, I see support between $47 and $48 with another layer of potential buying activity coming into play at $43. On the upside, keep your eye on the November 2021 all-time high just shy of $57. The ETF successfully held its rising 200-day moving average earlier this quarter, and the breakout through $47 projects a measured move price objective to $58 based on the rounded bottom formation from Q2 this year to the December near-term breakout. With a daily RSI north of 86, we could see CIBR cool off, but the broader trend remains constructive in my view, and new all-time highs are certainly in play over the coming weeks.
NASDAQ:CIBRLong
by mikezaccardi
2
Is AI a Bubble?As artificial intelligence (AI) weaves into the fabric of global industries, it sparks a crucial inquiry: Is the soaring valuation of AI stocks a sign of a robust future or a bubble waiting to burst? This article delves into the financial phenomenon, dissecting the realities behind the AI market's ascent. What Is a Bubble? A financial bubble represents a market condition where asset prices surge to levels far beyond their intrinsic value, propelled by investor enthusiasm rather than fundamental factors. These bubbles typically follow a pattern: a period of steep growth in asset prices, the peak of the bubble, and an eventual crash that leaves prices more aligned with the asset’s fundamental value. A classic historical example is the Tulip Mania in the 17th century, where tulip prices soared extraordinarily before collapsing. Another more recent example is the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, characterised by the steep rise and subsequent fall of internet company stocks. Indicators of a Bubble Recognising a bubble often hinges on observing telltale indicators such as extreme price-to-earnings ratios, widespread speculative investment, and rapid price escalation without commensurate growth in underlying fundamentals. Other red flags include high levels of market leverage, disproportionately bullish investor sentiment, and an influx of novice investors driven by fear of missing out. With that in mind, we can begin to consider whether AI-related stocks are truly in a bubble. The Rise of AI Technology The ascent of artificial intelligence has marked a significant shift in the technological paradigm, reflected clearly in the financial markets. AI stocks in 2023 have witnessed substantial growth as investors bank on the technology's vast potential to revolutionise various sectors. Nvidia, a leading manufacturer of graphics processing units vital in powering AI solutions, has seen a 200%+ return in 2023; Symbiotic, a robotics and AI company, climbed over 400% this year. This interest isn't just speculative; it's anchored in the real-world applications and performance enhancements AI promises. AI-based stocks encapsulate a broad range of companies, from those developing autonomous systems to businesses integrating AI for data analysis and customer service enhancement. For many, it’s expected to be a revolution on par with the internet itself. And within trading, artificial intelligence trading software has emerged, offering sophisticated tools for market analysis, predictive modelling, and automated decision-making. Arguments for AI as a Bubble In the financial markets, speculative fervour around AI technology stocks has fueled a debate reminiscent of past market bubbles. Here, the arguments for the bubble perspective are unpacked: High Valuations: AI stocks, like Nvidia, are trading at multiples that soar past traditional valuation metrics. Nvidia is trading at 38 times its sales as of November 2 —a stark contrast to the S&P 500's 2.4 times sales—raises eyebrows among market veterans wary of inflated prices. High Market Concentration: The S&P 500’s rally in 2023 has primarily been driven by seven mega-cap stocks—Apple, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla. Each company has benefited from or aimed to capitalise on the AI boom. This market concentration echoes patterns from the dot-com era, raising concerns that the wider index's performance may be overly reliant on a handful of players in the AI space. Overheated Market: Two of the market’s AI leaders—Nvidia and Microsoft—both show bearish RSI divergences on their monthly charts, often a precursor to a correction. Discover which other companies may be ripe for reversal with real-time charts from FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Effect of Rate Hikes: As of the current writing, the full repercussions of elevated interest rates have not yet made a significant impact on stock markets. However, historical patterns indicate that the eventual reduction of market enthusiasm may cast a shadow over the ongoing AI-driven stock rally. FOMO Influences: The market rally is partly driven by investor FOMO—a harbinger of bubble-like behaviour where prices are propelled more by sentiment than substance. There’s also a belief that others are investing in AI disruption stocks and that this will fuel prices higher, creating an unsustainable dynamic. Arguments Against AI as a Bubble Within the fervent debate around AI's market dynamics, substantial arguments stand against the idea that AI represents a speculative bubble: Robust Financials: The most promising AI stocks exhibit strong financials. Nvidia, for example, trades at a price-to-sales ratio below the peaks of many companies in historical tech bubbles, potentially indicating more grounded valuations. Solid Growth: Some AI companies have demonstrated potent sales growth. Nvidia reported revenue growth of 101% year-over-year (YoY) in Q2 2023. Even Microsoft, one of the world’s largest companies, benefited from 13% revenue growth YoY in the first fiscal quarter of 2024. Technological Foundation: AI’s transformative potential is widely acknowledged, reinforcing its status as a mainstay in technological progress rather than a temporary stock craze, like cannabis, green hydrogen, and SPACs. Historical Parallels: Compared to previous bubbles, the companies at the forefront of the AI surge have sturdy balance sheets—a sign of financial health and resilience. This foundation provides a buffer against market volatility and speculative downturns. Wider Adoption: The increasing adoption of AI across industries bolsters confidence in the sector’s long-term prospects, diverging from bubble scenarios where growth is unsupported by actual market use. Preparing for the Future Investors navigating the AI market landscape are urged to prioritise rigorous due diligence. The key lies in identifying companies that not only ride the AI wave but also demonstrate sustainable business models, robust revenue growth, and sound financial strategies. As the sector matures, it's crucial to discern between those that are fundamentally strong and those inflated by transient hype. Diversification remains essential; a well-rounded portfolio may include AI-focused firms with the potential to lead and innovate while mitigating risk through exposure to various industries and asset classes. Such strategic positioning can offer protection against potential market corrections and potentially capitalise on AI's long-term growth trajectory. The Bottom Line In conclusion, the AI market's surge reflects both innovation's promise and the market's fervour. For traders seeking to navigate this dynamic sector judiciously, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the diverse world of trading, where informed strategies and judicious investment decisions may potentially turn the potential of AI into realised gains amidst the ongoing debate about its future. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
10
Find great stocks to trade with our Stock Screener 2.0Our new Stock Screener 2.0 gives you the capability to scan, screen, and discover over 75,000 stocks from all around the world. How do you open the Stock Screener 2.0? Here's a link that'll get you directly to the Stock Screener 2.0. You may want to bookmark this link so that you always land directly on the screener tool, whenever needed. If you're on our website and desktop app, go to the top toolbar of TradingView and move your mouse over 'Products'. Then go to 'Screeners' and click on 'Stock 2.0'. Why should you use the screener? Our Stock Screener 2.0 empowers traders to sift through equity markets efficiently, and quickly. Our Stock Screener 2.0 was created to give traders a tool that'll enhance decision-making and improve time management. With the ability to quickly narrow down the multitude of available equities, globally, our Stock Screener 2.0 will support traders in their journey, encouraging research, process, and risk management. How does our Stock Screener 2.0 work? All the possibilities are in your hands. If you can envision it, it most likely can be done. You set the parameters and then our screener will display the results – for example: - Want to see all the stocks with a PE ratio under 10? You can do that. - Want to see all the stocks trading above their 200-day moving average? Yep, also that. - Looking to find all stocks that hitting all-time highs and have no debt? You can create a custom screen for that, too. Stock Screener 2.0 Features Our Stock 2.0 screener is fully customizable. This means traders can create, save, rename and delete screens until they've created a perfect list for all the screens they need. In addition, traders can quickly access popular screens based on different factors such as the following: - Highest net income stocks - Strong performance small caps - Dividend kings - And many more pre-made options To access these features (save, load, rename, and access pre-built screens) click on the 'Stock Screener 2.0' text in the upper left corner of the screen: Tip: Remember to save your screens by clicking the "Save" button in the upper left corner. You'll also want to master your filters and columns as these buttons will allow you to create a screen that's perfect for your needs. Like this: Now, let’s create a custom screen. We'll show you how it's done... The tabs at the top of the screener give you the capability to begin narrowing down your screen based on specific criteria. For example, click the Market tab located in the upper left corner of the screen to adjust the countries that you want to screen in. You can screen globally or by country. As you go about creating your first screen, remember that it's possible to access advanced features. Specifically, in the country example we just mentioned, you can select multiple markets that you're interested in. To do this, first make sure that the 'Multi-Select' option is enabled: Filter Section: Here you can choose from hundreds of fundamental and technical analysis elements to find stocks according to what you select. The most common ones are shown in this section: - Index - Price - Change % - Market capitalization - P/E - EPS diluted growth - Dividend Yield % - Sector - Analyst Rating - Performance % If you want to add more, click on the "+" icon and browse through the available categories. The key here is that these are parameters that can be set by you, the trader. For example, click on "Change %" and select "Custom". Then select the 1-month time frame and enter an Above Value of 10%. By doing this, you will only see the stocks that up 10% or more in the last month. You can also combine different parameters at the same time, so the possibilities of filtering stocks are endless. Setups: Here you can select the type of information you want to analyze, divided into different categories from performance to technicals and fundamentals. You can sort the list of stocks by clicking on the "Sort by" icon at the top right of the screen. Columns: The columns you see are related to the type of screen that you're creating, but they can also be right clicked, dragged and dropped, and you can create a new column by clicking on the "+" icon located at the far right side of the column section. Columns give you a visual idea of what's happening with the stocks that you're screening for. There are over 100 indicators at your disposal to add as columns. Create your screen, and then customize your columns, so that you can browse your screen efficiently. We're excited to see everyone get started with our Stock Screener 2.0! We also want to hear your feedback and commentary. Let us know if the comments below what you think about our Stock Screener 2.0. TradingView Team 💙
NASDAQ:DUOL
by TradingView
65
Is the Santa Claus Rally on Its Way Again?The lights, carols and the last FOMC of the year, you know the drill by now, Christmas is here soon! As we head into the year's end, it's the perfect time to revisit an old idea we had last Christmas. In our piece last December titled “ Is the Santa Claus rally real? ” we explored the concept of the Santa Claus rally, discussing why and how a modified version might work. To recap, last year we proposed examining the Santa Claus rally through a spread between the S&P500 and the Nikkei, rather than focusing solely on either the S&P or Nikkei alone. This approach was based on several reasons: 1) Holiday Impact: The Christmas holiday holds greater cultural importance in the US, likely resulting in more holiday observance in the US compared to Japan. 2) Diverging Monetary Policies: The Bank of Japan is set to meet next week, and while no change in the policy rate is expected, we're looking for any hints on the timing of an exit from negative interest rates. Conversely, the Federal Reserve has just signalled expectations of up to 75bps rate cuts in 2024, marking a policy shift. These differing policies could influence equities in their respective markets differently. 3) Difference in Accounting/Financial Years: Different accounting practices and book closure dates mean that institutional traders in each market will have varying flows as they prepare to close positions for the financial year. 4) January Effect Front-Running: Investors re-establishing positions after December's tax loss harvesting. With policy directions now swapping, optimism for this strategy's success is higher this year. The Federal Reserve signalling an end to hikes, has resulted in the S&P500 surging closer to previous all-time highs. Meanwhile, the USDJPY has collapsed from its high of 152, as views grow that the BOJ might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, as alluded to by BOJ Governor Ueda. This Christmas, we'll compare what happened last Christmas to see if a similar pattern emerges this year. A review of last year's Christmas effect shows that the spread rose roughly 12% from mid-December to mid-February. This result adds to the current streak of a 60%-win rate since 2013, now improving to 63% with a simple average return of about 33%. Examining each index individually, we find that periods where the S&P 500’s RSI is above 75 and the Nikkei 225’s RSI is around 50 have generally preceded critical junctures where the S&P 500 continues to rise while the Nikkei remains rangebound or falls. Additionally, observing the S&P500 and Nikkei 225 spread, we notice an ascending triangle pattern, with current price action breaking above. An ascending triangle is typically associated with bullish continuation. Considering the broad macro factors, such as changing monetary policy stances aligning with the historical behavior of the Santa Claus rally, along with a bullish technical setup, we lean bullish on this spread. To express this bullish view, one could go long on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures and short on the Nikkei/USD Futures. At the current price levels, the notional value of one S&P 500 Futures contract is 4771*50 = 238550 and the notional for the Nikkei futures is 33010*5 = 165050, hence to match the notional we can trade 2 S&P 500 Futures contracts against 3 Nikkei Futures contract with the intent of holding the position from now till the middle of February. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.fool.com www.jstor.org
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by inspirante
14
NVDA: Beware of these Support / Resistance Levels (H & D charts)NVDA shares are losing momentum after a powerful upward reaction this morning. It seems that as it approaches its resistance area, it is becoming difficult for NVDA to maintain its upward trajectory. We had a good reaction near the Fibonacci retracements, which, as we warned in our last public study, was our main area of support. Now the price is trying to recover, but there are still some challenges ahead. The link to our previous analysis is below this post, as usual. It's interesting to note that despite losing momentum, the price could still seek out the $487.61 region, a secondary resistance and previous top that can be seen on the hourly chart: At the moment, there is no clear sign of a bearish reversal, but we should remain vigilant as the price is finding it difficult to break through the resistance of its Ascending Channel, as evidenced by the purple lines. A correction down to the 21 EMA is plausible, but if the price loses this support, then we could see NVDA near the support of its channel again. So, in the short term, it's all about the Ascending Channel, and in which direction there will be a breakout, as well as the 21 EMA. In the medium term, we should focus on the Fibonacci retracements, and the resistance at $487. I must admit that I would like to see the price at $487 again, since that point has been a personal target for me since the first buy signal at $469: Ignition Bar + above the support of the ascending channel + breaking a pivot point + breaking the 21 ema on the 1h chart = Clear buy signal (to me, at least). However, depending on how the price reacts today, maybe the bullish thesis will be thwarted. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to like this idea, and follow me for more analysis like this. All the best, Nathan,
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
Euro climbs to two-week high as ECB meeting loomsThe euro has extended its gains in Thursday trading. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0925, up 0.45%. It has been a good week for the euro, which has climbed 1.5% against the US dollar. The European Central Bank meets later on Wednesday and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.0% for a second straight time. The markets will be focusing on the rate statement and ECB President Lagarde's post-meeting remarks. Lagarde has been hawkish, stressing the need to maintain rates in restrictive territory for a prolonged period - "higher for longer". The markets are more dovish and have priced in six rate cuts for 2024, with a first cut as early as the spring. The economic landscape in the eurozone could support the market's view. Inflation has fallen sharply and is at 2.4%, within striking distance of the Bank's 2% target. The economy has cooled due to high interest rates and a recession remains a possibility. Will Lagarde push back against market expectations of rate cuts? Or will she set a more dovish stance and avoid ruling out rate cuts? The tone of the rate statement and Lagarde's comments could have a strong effect on the movement of the euro today. The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark rate at a target range of 5.25%- 5.50% for a third straight time. That was not a surprise but Fed Chair Powell provided plenty of drama as he pivoted from his usual hawkish rhetoric. There had been expectations that Powell would push back against growing speculation that the Fed would trim rates in 2024. Powell not only failed to push back, he signalled that the Fed expected to cut rates three times next year. Powell's dovish message sent equities flying higher and the US dollar tumbling. Just two weeks ago, Powell said it would be "premature" to speculate about the timing of rate cuts and that the door was still open to further hikes. There is still a deep disconnect between the markets and the Fed, as the markets have now priced in six rate cuts in 2024. There is resistance at 1.0964 and 1.1033 1.0862 and 1.0793 are providing support
by OANDA
6
Technical vs. Fundamental Analysis: Finding a BalanceLooking to make more holistic investment decisions, but not sure how? Understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis and how to incorporate both is an essential step to accomplishing holistic investing. Today we will explore how finding a balance between these pillars of trading can help you navigate the complex world of investing. The Importance of Finding a Balance Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis can be the key to successful investing. By combining the two approaches, traders gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, taking into consideration both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. When it comes to investing, it's important to have a complete view of the market. Relying solely on technical analysis may leave you susceptible to missing out on crucial information about a company's financial health and growth prospects. Similarly, relying purely on fundamental analysis may cause you to overlook short-term market trends that could impact the stock's price in the near future, potentially leading to poor entries and exits. A balanced approach allows you to leverage the strengths of both technical and fundamental analysis, providing you with a more complete picture of the investment opportunity at hand. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, finding the sweet spot between technical and fundamental analysis can help maximize your chances of making a profitable investment. Understanding Technical Analysis Technical analysis focuses on analyzing historical price and volume data to predict future price movements. Traders using this approach often rely on chart patterns, indicators, and trendlines to identify buy and sell signals. Chart patterns, such as triangles, head and shoulders, and double tops/bottoms, provide insights into potential price reversals or continuations. These patterns are formed as a result of the collective actions of market participants and can signal impending price movements. However, when using price patterns it is critical to understand the statistical odds of success for completion of the pattern. Price patterns can be subjective to the trader's skill and overall directional bias, so traders should combine price patterns with other forms of technical analysis. Indicators, such as moving averages, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Bollinger Bands, help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, measure the strength of a trend, and spot potential entry or exit points. When indicators are combined to form a robust and complementary system traders gain a wealth of information about the near-term health of an underlying asset. It is critical to note that no indicator system is perfect and will not guarantee you a 100% success rate. However, when paired with proper risk mitigation, psychology, and supporting forms of technical analysis, using indicators can lead to long-term success. Trendlines are used to analyze the direction and strength of a stock's price movement. Drawing trend lines connecting the highs or lows of a stock's price can help identify support and resistance levels, price channels, and potential trend reversal areas. Support and resistance zones are price levels on a chart that indicates where trends are likely to pause or reverse. Support is a zone where a downtrend pauses due to demand, while resistance is a zone where an uptrend pauses due to supply. These zones are based on market sentiment and human psychology, shaped by emotions such as fear, greed, and herd instinct. Traders tend to congregate near these zones, strengthening them. Support levels indicate a surplus of buyers, while resistance levels indicate a surplus of sellers. It's important to note that these levels are not exact numbers but rather "zones" that can be tested by the market. Understanding how these tools work and how to interpret their signals is crucial for technical analysis. It allows traders to make intuitive decisions based on historical price patterns and market dynamics. However, it's important to note that technical analysis has its limitations. Limitations of Technical Analysis While technical analysis can provide valuable insights into a stock's potential price movements, it's important to recognize its limitations. Technical analysis is primarily focused on historical data and patterns, which may not always accurately predict future price movements. Market sentiment, news events, and other external factors can significantly impact a stock's price, often rendering technical analysis less effective. If you don't believe me, just look at the price charts for the last four years. Try to pinpoint major world or domestic events such as the start of the pandemic or the Fed's hawkish shift. Additionally, technical analysis does not take into account the intrinsic value of a company, which is a key consideration in fundamental analysis. Therefore, relying solely on technical analysis to make investment decisions may leave you vulnerable to market uncertainties and potential pitfalls. This is where fundamental analysis comes into play. Understanding Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis involves examining a company's financials, industry trends, and market conditions to determine its intrinsic value. Investors who lean towards fundamental analysis believe that a company's true worth is reflected in its financial strength and growth potential. Key factors considered in fundamental analysis include a company's revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, debt levels, competitive positioning, and management team. By analyzing these factors, investors can assess whether a company is undervalued or overvalued, and make investment decisions accordingly. Most, if not all of this information is readily available on the internet, but it can take some digging to find all the information one would need. There is also a wide range of financial-related indicators readily available on TradingView. Fundamental analysis also takes into account macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and government policies, which can impact the overall market and the performance of individual stocks. How to Conduct Fundamental Analysis Conducting fundamental analysis involves a thorough examination of a company's financial statements, such as its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement. These statements provide insights into a company's revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and cash flows. Analyzing financial ratios, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, return on equity (ROE), and debt-to-equity ratio, helps investors assess a company's financial health and profitability. Much of this information is available on TradingView under the financials tab. TradingView has done an excellent job of making a majority of the aforementioned financial data available, right at your fingertips. Industry analysis is another important aspect of fundamental analysis. Understanding the industry dynamics, competitive landscape, and market trends can provide insights into a company's growth potential and its ability to outperform its peers. There is a plethora of this information online, and diligence in your research will make a world of difference. By combining financial analysis with industry analysis, investors can gain a deeper understanding of a company's overall prospects and make more informed investment decisions. Finding a Balance Between Technical and Fundamental Analysis Finding the right balance between technical and fundamental analysis requires a thoughtful approach. Here are some strategies to help you integrate the two approaches: Start with fundamental analysis: Begin by analyzing a company's financials and industry trends to assess its long-term growth potential. This will provide you with a solid foundation for your investment decisions. Use technical analysis for timing: Once you've identified a promising investment opportunity based on fundamental analysis, use technical analysis to refine your entry and exit points. Technical indicators and chart patterns can help you identify optimal times to buy or sell a stock. Consider the bigger picture: While technical analysis focuses on short-term market trends, it's important to consider the long-term value of a company. Evaluate the fundamental factors that can impact a company's growth potential and use technical analysis as a tool to validate your investment thesis. Keep an eye on market sentiment: Market sentiment can influence stock prices in the short term. By staying informed about news events, economic indicators, and market trends, you can better understand the context in which technical and fundamental analysis are operating. By finding a balance between technical and fundamental analysis, you can better manage your investment decisions that take into account both short-term market dynamics and long-term value. This balanced approach can help you navigate the complex world of investing and maximize your chances of success. In conclusion, understanding the difference between technical and fundamental analysis is crucial for making theoretically sound investment decisions. By finding a balance between the two approaches, you can gain a comprehensive understanding of a stock's potential, considering both the short-term market trends and the long-term value. So, whether you're a short-term trader or a long-term investor, incorporating both technical and fundamental analysis can help provide a better view and maximize your chances of making profitable investment decisions. Happy Trading!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by LeafAlgo
16
7 Forex Trading Tips (To help you be successful in 2024)7 Tips for all Forex Traders (to succeed in 2024) So many new traders come into with an expectation of quickly becoming a millionaire. They soon learn that making money from trading isn’t as simple as just placing trades and collecting profits. They need some forex trading tips that can help them to succeed in the market. If they get these useful tips and combine them with a good and hard work there’s a chance that they can become successful as a forex trader. If this sounds like something, you’d like keep reading. This article will give you 7 forex trading tips that can help you improve forex trading results. Many new traders look to this scalping type of trading where positions are held for a short time, usually less than a day. This type of trading has become so popular because it is also considered as a way to deliver quick profits to a trader’s account. Understanding the dangers of short-term trading are also important. Short-term forex trades typically make far less on each trade, but the higher frequency of trades makes up for this, and at the end of the day this trading style can deliver a good number of . You will choose between short-term forex trading and long-term forex trading at some point in trading career. Whether you stay with the short-term trading or switch to long term trading will be determined by your own and style. The following forex trading tips are meant to help you control your risk and manage your money effectively. Hopefully these 7 forex trading tips will help you become a better trader, in 2024. 1) Understand your own personality and trading style It might seem like obvious advice, but knowing your own personality and trading style is much easier said than done. We all have our own personality and goals, and we all have our own unique approach to the markets and trading. You need to know what your personality and approach is if you want to be a successful forex trader. While some traders are most comfortable with small, safe positions, others love to swing for the fences with the riskiest, but potentially most profitable, trades. Which way is yours? Also think about whether you like to be a follower who might work well with a trend following approach. Or maybe you like to go against the crowd and are always looking for a different way to approach things. This personality type often does well as a contrarian trader. You don’t need to figure this all out right now, but you should keep it in mind. 2) Choose your Best Broker You already know there are literally hundreds of brokers you can choose from, and each one is different in some ways. Some focus on specific asset types, while others may work best for broad approach. There are brokers for and others for pro traders. Do you need automatic broker ? Is the regulation of a broker important to you? Ask yourself these questions before choosing a broker. 3) Learn and Practice Several Trading Strategies If you want to make forex trading a career you should want to become an expert forex trader. That means learning and mastering multiple professional trading strategies. Just as a lawyer will have a different approach to traffic court versus civil court, so you need to have a different approach to different market conditions. Having several trading strategies at your disposal gives you a broader look and understanding of the market. It also gives you the option of having the best trading strategy no matter how market conditions change. 4) Start Broad and Finish Narrow when analyzing charts Always begin your analysis from the higher timeframes. Looking at the weekly and daily chart will give you the big picture and long-term trends. From there you can drill down to the 4-hour, 1-hour, or shorter time frames. Once you know the long-term trend you can use the short-term charts to find short-term opportunities in the same direction as the broader market trends. There’s truth to the old saying that “The trend is your friend.” 5) Always Have a Trading Plan There’s a saying that goes “Fail to plan, plan to fail” and it is appropriate for forex traders to keep it in mind. Trading plan is what will tell you when to enter and exit your position, the profit target, how much risk you’ll be willing to accept, and everything else regarding trade. It will keep you from getting too fearful or greedy, and should prevent emotional decision making. In all honesty having a trading plan is one of the most important tips, and it should probably be at the top of this list. And the key is not just to have a plan, but to follow it religiously, and to take the time to analyze how well it performs so you know when changes might be needed. 6) Protect your Capital by Managing your Risk on every trade Protecting your capital is what will keep you in the trading game when others have been thrown out by their own careless risk taking behavior. Remember that the market will always be there for another day and another trade, and you want to be sure you have capital to take advantage of that in your trading adventures. This means always calculating your risk on any trade, and knowing when to enter and when to take a day off. Volatility is good, but not if it increases your risk to the point that you blow up your account. Also be sure to always use stop losses to protect from unforeseen moves. 7) Price action on charts (not feelings)/Never stop learning You might be thinking this is basic, but too many traders fall into the trap of trading on emotions and hunches rather than facts. Always trade what the market shows, not what you hope to see. Wait for your trade setup and avoid trading based on emotions. Two things you can do to help ensure you are trading with facts and not emotions is to have a clear trading plan that you’re following at all times, and to keep a detailed journal of trades. The forex market is one of the most complex financial systems ever created, and no one will ever know all there is to know about it, especially since market conditions are always changing. This makes it crucial for you to always be learning. Because the forex market is ever-changing you need to understand that what worked yesterday won’t necessarily work today. And when your strategy stops working it would be good to have the knowledge to know why it’s stopped working, and how to fix it. Always look to try new strategies, find new ways to research the market, master technical tools and your fundamental analyzing strategies. Last of all, keep an eye on evolving technologies like auto-trading, back-testing software, and new technical trading indicators. Each might have a place in your future trading plans.
Education
by Anbat
9
Rate Cut 1930 - Pattern Recognition: 30s vs Today In 1930, when the Fed cut interest rates, the market crashed further. In today's tutorial, we will be comparing the 30s and today’s market to identify some of their similarities. Where exactly are interest rates’ direction pointing us? As we may have read, many analysts are forecasting that there will be a few rate cuts in 2024. Is this the best option? My work in this channel, as always, is to study behavioral science in finance, discover correlations between different markets, and uncover potential opportunities. Micro Treasury Yields & Its Minimum Fluctuation Micro 2-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 5-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 5YY 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 10-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 10Y 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Micro 30-Year Yield Futures Ticker: 30Y 0.01 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
TVC:DJI
by konhow
40
Fibonacci Retracement StrategiesFibonacci retracements are a cornerstone in the toolkit of many traders, offering a mathematical approach to identifying potential areas where reversals may occur. This article delves into the intricacies of using Fibonacci retracements, covering everything from basic understanding to strategies involving other indicators. Read on to gain insights into how to effectively incorporate these levels into your trading strategy. What Are Fibonacci Retracements? Fibonacci retracements are a popular technical analysis tool used to identify potential support and resistance levels on a chart. Developed around the concept of the Fibonacci sequence—a series of numbers where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones—the Fibonacci indicator applies this mathematical formula to financial markets. Key retracement levels are often considered at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% of a price move. The 61.8% level, in particular, is frequently referred to as the Fibonacci retracement golden ratio, owing to its significance in both nature and financial markets. Traders commonly use these areas to anticipate where the price may reverse, thus providing strategic entry and exit points. Fibonacci Retracements: How to Use Them Using the Fibonacci tool for trading begins with identifying a significant swing, either an uptrend or a downtrend, on the chart. The tool is then applied at the swing low and swing high of the price movement. In an uptrend, it starts at the swing low and ends at the swing high; in a downtrend, it's the opposite. This action plots horizontal lines at the key Fibonacci levels, providing potential areas where price could reverse. Concerning the Fibonacci retracement time frame, it's essential to know that this tool can be applied across various time frames—from one-minute charts to monthly charts. However, the reliability of the retracement levels often increases on higher time frames. That means those plotted on daily or weekly charts generally offer stronger support or resistance compared to those on shorter time frames. Strategies Using Fibonacci Retracements In trading, combining Fibonacci retracements with other technical indicators can significantly enhance decision-making. Below are three distinct strategies that utilise these retracements in conjunction with other tools to identify high-probability trade setups. To see how they work, consider following along in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. There, you’ll gain access to over 1,200 trading tools—including the ones featured in this article. Fibonacci Retracement with Moving Average Crossover In this Fibonacci trading strategy, traders combine Fibonacci retracements with two Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) set to 9 and 12 periods to pinpoint entry and exit points. After identifying a trend, either bullish or bearish, they apply the retracement tool to gauge potential reversal zones. Specifically, the focus is on the 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% retracement levels. If the price reacts at any of these zones—potentially confirmed by a bullish or bearish candlestick pattern—the next step is to observe the EMA indicators. Entry Traders often watch for a moving average crossover in the direction of the existing trend as an indication of potential entry. Stop Loss Stop losses may be placed above or below the nearest swing high or low. Alternatively, some opt for setting it beyond the next level, including 23.6% or 78.6%. Take Profit Profits are typically taken at the high or low of the retracement zone where the price initially reacted. Fibonacci Retracement with Stochastic Oscillator In this Fibonacci retracement strategy, the initial setup is similar to the one involving moving averages: traders identify a prevailing trend and apply Fibonacci retracements to find possible reversal zones at 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. The twist here is the use of the Stochastic Oscillator, a momentum indicator that ranges between 0 and 100. The oscillator helps identify overbought or oversold conditions when the price reaches these areas. Entry Traders generally look for the Stochastic Oscillator to exceed 80 (overbought) or drop below 20 (oversold) when the price reaches one of these Fibonacci zones. The entry signal often comes when the oscillator crosses back below 80 or above 20 after a reaction. Stop Loss Stop losses can be situated either above or below the closest swing high or swing low. Some traders may also choose to place it beyond an adjacent level, such as 23.6% or 78.6%. Take Profit Take profits are commonly located at the level where the price first exhibited a reaction, be it a high or a low. 50% Fibonacci Retracement Strategy The 50% Fibonacci retracement strategy is a lower risk-to-reward approach but one that’s simple. Unlike other strategies that utilise multiple Fibonacci levels or additional indicators, this method zeroes in on the 50% mark as the focal point for entry, making it straightforward for traders. The 50% point specifically plays into the idea of mean reversion, which states that the price is likely to return to its average over time; however, traders can choose 38.2% or 61.8% areas if preferred. Entry Traders typically look to enter a position when the price reaches and reacts from the 50% retracement level, aiming to ride an existing trend. Stop Loss Due to the wider scope of this strategy, stop losses are usually set beyond the high or low of the entire Fibonacci retracement, offering a buffer against potential volatility. Take Profit Traders often opt to take profits at key support or resistance areas that offer at least a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Alternatively, one may choose to forgo setting a take profit and instead trail a stop loss above or below new swing points that develop. The Bottom Line In summary, understanding and applying Fibonacci retracements can enhance your trading strategies, especially when used in conjunction with other technical indicators. These retracement levels offer high-probability zones where price might reverse, creating potential entry and exit points. If you're looking to implement a Fibonacci forex strategy in a secure, low-cost trading environment, consider opening an FXOpen account to access over 50 currency pairs and a comprehensive range of trading resources. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
How to Quantify & Identify (real-time) a Trading RangeOne of the most challenging & frustrating tasks for a trader, is to define with a rules-based (systematic) methodology, and identify (on a real-time basis), when a market is in a trading range. Using the MACD-v both of these goals are achieved. The market is defined as being as "Ranging" (one of the Core 7 Range Rules/States) when the MACD-v is between the -50 and 50 ranges, for more than 25 bars consecutively.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by AlexSpiroglou
VIX Index at Lowest Levels Since 2017OVERVIEW As of 12/12/2023, CBOE:VIX is at 11.82. There have only been a handful of periods over the last 30 years where stock market volatility is at a similar level, including 2007 and 1994. Some would argue it implies an increasing level of volatility will be due in 2024. What is the VIX? The CBOE Volatility Index, is a real-time market index representing the market's expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days. Investors often refer to the VIX as the "fear index" or "fear gauge" because it is one of the most recognized measures of market volatility. Here's a breakdown of what the VIX represents: Volatility Measurement: The VIX measures the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated using the bid and ask prices of S&P 500 index options. Forward-Looking: Unlike many market metrics that look at past performance, the VIX is forward-looking. It provides a 30-day forward projection of volatility. Market Sentiment Indicator: A high VIX value indicates that traders expect significant changes (volatility) in stock prices, which is often associated with market uncertainty or fear. Conversely, a low VIX suggests low expected volatility and is often associated with market stability. Not a Direct Stock Market Indicator : It's important to note that the VIX does not measure the direction of stock market movements. Instead, it measures how much the market is expected to fluctuate, regardless of the direction. Use in Investment Strategies: Some investors use the VIX to help in making decisions about market timing. For example, a high VIX might suggest a market turning point, leading some to consider it a good time to buy, while others might see it as a signal to sell. VIX Derivatives: There are various financial products, such as VIX futures and options, that allow investors to trade based on their views of future market volatility. Risk Management Tool: For portfolio managers and sophisticated investors, the VIX can be a tool to hedge against market volatility or to take a position on future volatility. In summary, the VIX is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. It has become a crucial tool in financial markets for hedging, trading, and investment strategy formulation
CBOE:VIX
by kingthies
7
Gold Price Susceptible to Test of 50-Day SMAThe price of gold remains under pressure after spiking to a fresh yearly high ($2147), with the weakness in bullion pulling the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from overbought territory. Gold Price Outlook The price of gold sits near the monthly low ($1976) as it weakens for the third consecutive day, with a break/close below the $1973 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to $1977 (50% Fibonacci extension) region raising the scope for a move towards $1937 (38.2% Fibonacci extension). Failure to defend the November low ($1932) opens up the $1886 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) to $1897 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), but the price of gold may track the positive slope in the 50-Day ($1967) should it continue to hold above the moving average. Need a break/close above $2018 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to bring $2076 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the yearly high ($2147).
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by FOREXcom
Is Nasdaq 100 Ready For A Move Towards It’s All-Time High?From the beginning of November till today, indices experienced a strong rally, where some made double digit gains. EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD has been one of those, which added around 12% to its value. But that’s, basically, what the index lost in the period between the mid-July and end of October. We can see that the index is now getting a hold near the previous highest point of this year, at around 16062. Although we saw a few breakouts above that hurdle, still, the price remains below it. Although there is a good chance to see further declines, we would prefer to wait for the body of the weekly candle to stay above that hurdle first. If that happens, EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD may travel further north, possibly targeting the area near the all-time high. First, it may be the level at 16659, which might come into play. That level marks the high of 27th of December 2021. Slightly above it lies the current all-time high, at 16767. That is the highest point of 2021. To consider a move lower, at least in the near term, a drop below the 15719 zone would be required. That zone is marked by the highest point of September and by the current lowest point of December. If that drop happens, this may clear the path towards a larger correction lower towards the medium-term tentative upside support line drawn from the lowest point of January. Disclaimer: easyMarkets Account on TradingView allows you to combine easyMarkets industry leading conditions, regulated trading and tight fixed spreads with TradingView's powerful social network for traders, advanced charting and analytics. Access no slippage on limit orders, tight fixed spreads, negative balance protection, no hidden fees or commission, and seamless integration. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EASYMARKETS:NDQUSD
by easyMarkets
18
AMD Surges After Launching AI chip that Could Challenge NvidiaAMD unveiled its MI300X chip, an AI-centered semiconductor designed to challenge Nvidia's global market dominance. Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) shares jumped in early Thursday trading after the semiconductor group unveiled an AI-focused chip for the data-center market, which it says could be valued at as much as $45 billion over the coming years. AMD, which in June pegged the total addressable market for data-center chips at around $30 billion, launched the MI300X chip, designed to support generative-artificial-intelligence technologies. And it unveiled a next-generation semiconductor focused on supercomputing, the Instinct M1300A. The MI300X, analysts say, could challenge Nvidia's NVDA dominant H100 graphics-processing-unit chip in the large-language-model AI market. Last month, AMD said the new chip could generate $400 million in fourth-quarter sales while the broader family of MI300 semis are expected to see sales of more than $2 billion over the whole of 2024. Large language models "continue to increase in size and complexity, requiring massive amounts of memory and compute,” CEO Lisa Su said during last night's launch event at the company's Santa Clara, Calif., headquarters. “And we know the availability of GPUs is the single most important driver of AI adoption.” Advanced Micro Devices shares were marked 2% higher in premarket trading to indicate an opening bell price of $119.12 each. Such a move would nudge the stock into positive territory for the past six months. AMD last forecast fourth-quarter sales in the region of $6.1 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with gross margins of around 51.5%. That outlook following a mixed third-quarter-earnings report that showed big gains in PC revenue had partly offset the ongoing decline in gaming. "While AMD acknowledged that its software can be further improved, it has reached the point of being 'good enough' for volume deployment," said KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh. He reiterated his overweight rating on the stock following last night's launch event. "We're encouraged that AMD has released a competitive AI GPU within a massively fast-growing (total addressable market), with endorsements by many high-profile customers," he added. Technical Analysis The RSI (14) is at 56.52, indicating a bullish momentum. The MACD (12,26) is at 0.68, suggesting a positive trend. AMD is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average. Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by DEXWireNews
5
What Leveraged Bitcoin Is Doing In This MoveA derivative indicator I have used for many years to analyze Bitcoin is the BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS symbol on Tradingview which displays the number of Bitcoins held in Leveraged Long positions on the Bitfinex platform. This is an indicator of the aggregate long positions held on margin on the platform. It can be used to see what speculative position holders are doing. Recently, during this run up in the price of INDEX:BTCUSD it seems that the Leveraged positions have begun to unwind by taking profit. They are down -23.5% as of today from the start of November 2023. Analyzing this chart is different to On-Chain Analysis because the Bitcoin involved are all stored internally at Bitfinex. No new Bitcoin are created (because they cannot be) by taking these positions. Rather the Bitcoin that are custodied on Bitfinex and put up for the ability for other traders to borrow and the owners to earn interest are involved in the count. A few takeaways: After months of holding leveraged long positions these traders are taking their profits into this move. By having less exposure on margin the risk of a liquidation event (and liquidation candle) is diminished. Leveraged Long positions are net negative meaning that leveraged positions are not the cause of this upward move.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by norok
9
Top traders' methods: A scenario-based view of the marketsThe best traders think in scenarios of market events. They know from experience that the market can do "anything," so it is better to be prepared for any eventuality. This approach is part of mental flexibility. It can take several forms. Flexibility in approaching the market reduces stress Flexibility in our approach to the market reduces stress - if we are prepared for different scenarios of events it is certainly hard to surprise us isn't it? A lot of stress comes from the fact that we like to attach ourselves to our analysis and our rationale, and we feel annoyed when the market acts differently. If you take several options for the development of events and prepare for each of them - you are already taking into account that, for example, one or even several orders will go to cost. With this approach, you are already prepared for the matter. You also don't succumb to the illusion of your own infallibility and need to be right. Experienced traders know that being right is useless and even harmful, what matters is making money, not being right. Flexibility can promote better profits. Flexibility can promote better profits when you think through several possible scenarios and prepare to... make money on each of them. - If the market falls, I'll do this, enter here and the TP will be here, and if it rises I'll enter at that place and set the TP like this. You prepare your psyche to act according to what the market will do - just like a hunter waits for the game to come out in one place or another. The market's subsequent denial of being "right" can take a toll on your self-esteem, and as you already know, this is an unfavorable phenomenon. Therefore, think in open-ended terms - that the market can rise or fall in different scenarios. Think how you will make money on each of them, and don't be attached to any direction, any behavior and any "right." Think how you will make money on possible ups and possible downs, and don't be tied to any direction, any behavior and any "rationale." Flexibility over the long term In the long run, you can simulate for yourself many different profit and loss scenarios. Especially simulating, recalculating a series of losses works positively. It is sobering. If you are prepared for the worst that can happen, and you are able to survive it and come out on top - you are on your way to professionalism. Be prepared for a series of battles and for the fact that even though you will lose some of them, in the end you must win the war. Tip: When preparing to enter the market, think about where you will enter, where you will put SL and where you will put TP. Think about the different ways you can manage an open order: what are your choices? Exit because the system gives a signal in the opposite direction? Exit because the market froze instead of moving in your direction? Exit because the indications of the indicators are changing? Think through the different possibilities of market behavior. Together with them, think through your reactions and your decisions. If you prepare in advance - the management of the order itself will no longer require thinking, but only the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous, because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no pressure is better. If you think through your reactions and decisions earlier order management will no longer require thinking, but the execution of the strategy adopted earlier. Such a situation is more advantageous because the decision-making process in conditions when there is no mental pressure is better. Also think about what can knock you out, pull you away from your plan? What kind of distractions? Pets at home, family, phones? Think about how to eliminate these distractions or how to prepare for them when they occur. Traits of master traders Trading, systems, psyche is something unique. That is, every trader is different. At a certain level, traders participate in competitions, struggles with other traders. At the next level they are left alone, especially the best. And the best of the best start struggling with themselves. They are themselves yesterday's benchmark for what they want to achieve today. Thus, they enter the struggle with themselves, with this most important opponent. Therefore, think about it and imitate them. Be better today than who you were yesterday. And tomorrow be better than who you are today. Your new goal, which will lead you to the level of Master: "I will be the best trader I can be."
Education
by drSwierk
9