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Economy

EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For September 30, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: On Friday, the Eurodollar completed our Interim Rebound as specified on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For September 23, after a repeated hit of our completed Inner Currency Dip of 0.9570. On the downside target is retesting the newly created major Key Sup 0.9595 and once again completed Inner Currency Dip 0.9570. Continuation to the next Outer Currency Dip 0.9370 is in the making - There are possible short-term dead-cat bounce moves.
by TradeSelecter
Thailand vs USA- A good point for Tourism in Thailand, the country could get much more US/EU customers in 2022-23. - in return it will be much more pain for Thai Peoples to visit USA and EU. (Euro is weak vs USD, but strong vs THB). - Tourism still remain a big economic factor for Thailand, and much more important right now, after Covid Pandemic. - The big problem is : Economy not only based on Tourism. - Importations will be much more expensive for Thailand, and they will get much less profits for exportations. - Thailand is the biggest exporter of natural rubber in the world ( around 14B annual ). Scenarios : - if DXY breakout his bullish trend and reach 120ish, we could expect to have 1$ = 39 to 41 THB - A panic sell of riches peoples and companies could lead to transform their THB to USD. Then THB could back to 2001 situation, 1$ = 45ish THB. Happy Tr4Ding !
by thecryer
Make America great again with Dollar.From 1985, DXY oscillated into falling wedge and nowadays rising on EUR weakness. This falling wedge got confirmed and trend is strong. Consumers prices rises to try accelerate worldwide economy. Damage was done in US by printing. However, the war in Europe destroying Euro. Many of Us, traders and investors thought this have to come sooner or later. With that money supply increase... Strong EUR, USD or Equal Euro to Dollar is not very good for markets. But markets raised 2 years, bad situation show up and Bear cycle going forward in Covid shadow. Basically, governments don't want you to be so rich all the time. Only way how to control world , rich people and companies is through markets. I personally expecting strong 5th major bullish wave in Stocks & Cryptocurrency markets. This would be quite quick for now ( markets are in 4th corrective wave ). It will always rise and fall. Exchanges want you drag into trades , speculations and liquidate. Future is coming so let's monitor this yellow fractal. : - ) I have always this 2 quotes on my mind because I don't feel in prosperity enviroment like and still have to pay taxes : "There are two main forms of wealth in today’s 2025 world: Land and Cryptocurrency." "In 2030, You’ll Own Nothing And Be Happy About It" Yours Emvo. *This is not any financial advice.
TVC:DXYLong
by Emvo10
QQQ/M2SL Where does the economy stand important areas to watchHello Traders, This is somewhat an educational post as well as some TA with possible directions to watch for. update on #QQQ (#Nasdaq 100 ETF) vs #M2SL seasonally adjusted money flow in billions. When indexing this chart to a scale of 100 we may have a clearer picture of what is going to play out, important areas to watch for that may present opportunity and where the blood may shed. At the time of posting the last update, the index was around 111.11 and since raised all the way up to 133.62 hitting the monthly 20 EMA and coming right back down to a very important #support line dating all the way back to the .com bubble in 99’, as well as bringing action closer to the 13 year Support trend line (white ascending trend line) starting back at the bottom of the market in 09’. Which this recent pullback Nov 2021’ to present (35.28%) has been the largest correction experienced since that crash in 2007-2009 crash (58.03%) due to the #PrimeRateDebauchery ushered in via the #HousingMarketCollapse. If you look back to the #dotComBubble collapse starting in 99’ and the twin towers attacks which came shortly after you’ll see these pullbacks were nothing in comparison to the pullback (86.43%). Now that we have had a small history lesson about the chart its time to dive into this a bit deeper knowing some of the numbers and seeing the charts. To give a better understanding of how #M2 #money #supply seasonally adjusted works here is the definition from the #Fed #FRED data. “Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted, M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money #market #mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.” To understand M2 you must understand M1 so, here is the definition from the Fed FRED data. "Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float; and (3) other checkable deposits (OCDs), consisting of negotiable order of withdrawal, or NOW, and automatic transfer service, or ATS, accounts at depository institutions, share draft accounts at credit unions, and demand deposits at thrift institutions. Beginning May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. #Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those amounts held by depository institutions, the U.S. #government, and foreign banks and official institutions) less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve #float; and (3) other liquid deposits, consisting of #OCDs and savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts). Seasonally adjusted M1 is constructed by summing currency, demand deposits, and OCDs (before May 2020) or other #liquid deposits (beginning May 2020), each seasonally adjusted separately. For more information on the H.6 release changes and the #regulatory #amendment that led to the creation of the other liquid deposits component and its inclusion in the M1 monetary aggregate, see the H.6 announcements and #Technical Q&As posted on December 17, 2020." So understanding the money that flows in the US in comparison to the QQQ (the Index that includes the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq based on market cap.) We go into a deep dive comparing the charts with prior data and technical analysis along with what we see in the economy now bringing us to a point of understanding when this market may turn around or get much worse. As you see on the chart we have 3 main points of support, one in which we are currently at right now with the 13 year trend support slightly under where the action is at present on the chart. It is important to note, with more money potentially being printed via inflation stimulus packages in the near future this could likely prop this chart up a bit. The areas we want to watch for a bounce is where we are currently at and slightly below where the white trend line is holding. Personally I do not this this looks like a top to a market with a large impending crash as most think will be coming but, it is important we keep a level head and a neutral bias until we have confirmed data telling is the direction we are heading. Simply put, we must hold this trend line to continue this growth structure of the last 13 years. A good indication that is coming is chart action breaking above the yellow down trend line on the chart bullishly. Any break below the large ascending trend could mean for a few years of sideways markets and lower lows in the near future, which we will most likely see a slight bit of regardless in the next few weeks. I will come back and update this chart in a month or two... of when it becomes relative soon. Keep an eye on these major trends and supports in the mean time and most of all have a GREEN week! Savvy
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Savvythe1
1
The Proper Perspective on InflationAs any true trader knows, the inflation rate DID NOT GO UP 8.3%. That is what some retail news outlets claimed "year-over-year," which is plain misinformation. The retail news was designed to trigger a panic dump among the less informed last week. FACT: The rise in inflation started in late 2020, not this year. FACT: The rise in 2021 went to 7%. But the news seldom mentioned it last year. Nope, it was all about vaccines and Covid, etc. The inflation rate went down. It has been trending downward at a sustainable rate. Anyone who thought it would be lower was not paying attention. There is a 3-month decline, and it is due to falling oil prices which were constantly boosted upward during August by the big banks trying to move more investors into buying oil stocks. So, with fluctuating prices of oil between 80 - 92, there was NO WAY inflation would tick down to 8.1%. In August of 2021, inflation had already risen to 5.3%. Now in 2022, it has dropped to 8.3% from the peak of 9.1% in June. So it's 3 points higher than a year ago, obviously not 8.3 points higher. During the pandemic of 2020, the news about the Federal Reserve Board was all lathered up about deflation, that deflation was about to happen, and the world was coming to an end!!!! Sigh. Some people just have to have bad news to feel good, I guess. Oil and the war in Ukraine, which appears to be settling down with the Ukrainians taking back what is rightly their country, has lowered oil prices from $125 to 80-90, fluctuating regularly. Oil needs to drop to 70-80 for inflation to move down more. Slow improvement is how it is going to be. To assume inflation would just drop back to 2% is irrational and illogical. What is an ideal rate? For an expanding economy: around 4-5%. See that red arrow? That should be the goal. It probably is not, but it should be. Inflation lower than that indicates a sluggish economy with a lack of raises for the workforce. When inflation is not in the economy, corporations use buybacks to boost their stock prices, which creates fake rallies.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
⁉️ Economic calendar week 19.09-23.09 Hello traders! ✅ The upcoming week will be full of events. The most important are central bank meetings in USA, Switzerland and UK as we expect to have an increase of bank rate. ✅ During FED Meeting market watchers will be on high alert for how the U.S. central bank views the current pace of monetary tightening, the strength of the economy, and how likely inflation is to persist - as well as signs of how the balance sheet unwind is proceeding. ✅ The Swiss National Bank meets on Thursday with officials expected to deliver a 75-basis-point rate hike, matching the European Central Bank’s recent move even though inflation in the Eurozone is far outstripping Switzerland. ✅ The Bank of Japan also meets on Thursday amid speculation that Japanese authorities are close to intervening in the foreign exchange market to support the weak yen, which hit a 24-year low against the dollar earlier this month. My recommendation is to avoid trading during this events.
by Snick3rSD
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For September 16, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook: Eurodollar has completed Interim Rebound to our Mean Res 1.0180 and retreated viciously downward by forming a new Mean Res 1.0117 - with the possibility to be re-tested. The currency continues to move about the 1.000 threshold by closing slightly above the newly created Mean Sup 0.9970. The Key Sup 0.9880 and our open Inner Currency Dip 0.9852 continue to be the main target, with further expansion to the Next Inner Currency Dip 0.9570 and the lower mark is in the making.
by TradeSelecter
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
Week Ahead: Gas demand weaker * Oil Formed a descending Triangle. Giving more bearish confirmation of target of $60 * FED giving signs of another 75-point basis hike. Recession fears are bearish for oil * Demand slows down worries due to China’s zero COVID policy and OPEC+ cutting production * Energy Price Cap oil gapped up from opening on September 4th. Extended 3% by September 5th. Then losing almost 10% of gains. Reaching the price of $90 on September 5th, and dropping to $81 on September 8th. Then ended the week with a 5% gain. Closing weekly at the lowest since January 17th starting week. Crude oil inventories rose last week by 8.844 million. Indicating demand is weakening. It was expected inventories were to fall by just 250,000 barrels. I am anticipating oil to gap down during opening today. I am waiting to see how it will react to this trend line if it is going to continue down. Broke out of the descending triangle. Looks like it came back up for the last touch On Sunday, September 4, 2022, Russia announced the closure of its main gas supply pipeline to Europe. This spiked fears into the energy market. Both Natural gas and crude oil both gapped 1% before the closing of September 4th. Monday, September 5th the OPEC+ held a meeting. Production was cut by 100,000 barrels a day for the month of October. OPEC+ is already below meeting production. Supply fears pushed Oil up 5%. After oil digested the news it fell from $90 to about $81.14. Concerns of sluggish global demand outweighed the warning of President Vladimir Putin about the potential withdrawal of oil form of Russian Energy. Also new COVID lockdowns in China. Chinese imports fell 9.8% in August. The OPEC+ cut was larger for Asia and Europe indicating weaker anticipated demand. Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russian energy resources. Hours later EU proposed to cap Russian gas. The OPEC+ cut was done due to the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. This deal is expected to release over 1 million BPD of supply into the market
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn36761102
2