NFP 261K is mid!
2016-2017 NFP Average = 168k (Trump Era)
2017-2018 NFP Average = 198k
2018-2019 NFP Average = 164k
2019-2020 NFP Average = -796k (COVID-19)
2020-2021 NFP Average = 474k (Biden Era)
2021-2022 NFP Average = 410k
There was a time when 261k would have been outstanding, but following on from the big job reset in 2019/2020 the average was above 400k.
Economy
Bitcoin could to continue climb to $22kIn this update, I will analyze Bitcoin from H2 timeframe giving me an interesting fact that the price could to continue climb toward $22k.
It's appear that in H4 timeframe look bullish in this run.
Meanwhile, in Daily timeframe, Bitcoin forming a possible bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern, what more later, this look a good opportunity to short in the smart zone. For now, I'm in long toward $22k. Maybe, we could to see any possible bearish channel formation in Daily and this could be a good idea to take in perspective. I'm in long from $20,890 USD, Stop Loss to $20,450 USD and take profit to $22k.
***Based in the fundamental analysis, everything will depend on the next week how far FED will raise interest rate? And any bearish signal that if the FED don't make an aggressive interesting rate indicating pessimistic based the forecast what Jerome Powell has, we could to see a strong data here that Bitcoin and S&P 500 may be bullish in this case to watch in the next week. The U.S. Dollar take risk in the curb of possible recession that some economist said recently and a bad speculation that appear in Forex market to take in perspective with U.S. Dollar.
Good luck!!!
DJI come with me to see this sadly story...The DJI after this mini-bull run makes many people get confused about the economy and, if we are in the bottom of the correction but the things is this movements aren't natural and are made just for make think the people the situation is under control and ¨this gonna be temporary¨ but the reality is this are just the first consequences of 2008/2020 and the massive money print behind of those crisis.
If in FOMC'S meet Powell decides to make an increase on the interest rate higher that the previous (0.75) will confirm the situation is gonna get worse in the market and in the economy in general.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 28, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
The upside target marked at 3875 has been completed. Mean Res 3955 and Outer Index Rally 3975 are in the making. Follow-through above targets down move designated to Mean Sup 3805 is very high, with the possibility of the two additional targets - for NOW.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 28, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Eurodollar has completed a market rebound by producing a high-probability retest marked at Mean Res 1.0080 and 1.0150. The downside move shows Mean Sup 0.9870 as a first stop with follow through three significant down destinations, with a continuation to the next Outer Currency Dip of 0.9370, which is in the making.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 28, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin has completed a market rebound by producing medium strength Mean Res $20,800 with the continuous outcome mark at Outer Coin Rally of $22,200. The down path shows us a retracement to Mean Sup $20,300 and possibly all the way down to Mean Sup $19,300.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 21, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
Currently, in the S&P 500 market, we have tremendous volatility both ways . . . traders/investors are losing both ways. The longs get stopped on the downside, and the shorts get stopped on the upside. What we got is that the whole floor gives way. Pay attention to the critical data presented here.
The upside target is marked at Mean Res 3790 and Outer Index Rally 3865. The downside destination is the retest of the Mean Sup 3665: Followed by the Mean Sup 3575, a retest of the completed Outer Index Dip 3530, and Key Sup 3505. Continuation to the next Outer Index Dip of 3450 is in the making.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 21, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar bounced swiftly from our Mean Sup 0.9700 and rested at our Mean Res 0.9860; however, retesting the Mean Res 0.9987 and 1.0020 is probable. The significant downside move is a) from the current position, b) From up the ante restarting down move of 1.0020. The main targets continue to be our Key Sup 0.9595 and completed Inner Currency Dip 0.9570. Continuation to the next Outer Currency Dip of 0.9370 is in the making.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 21, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Bitcoin is churning between our Mean Res $19,550 and Mean Sup $18,750. As specified on the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 14, the possibility of moving to the Outer Coin Dip of $17,200 and extending the overall outcome to the #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 is in the process. Reaching out in the short-term to the Mean Res $19,550 and possibly Mean Res $20,385 is blowing hot and cold.
GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD. INVERTED CURVEWhat are GOVERNMENT BONDS YIELD?
Bonds are Fixed Income instruments that allow investors to anticipate the flow of funds they will receive.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Put simply, this means that short-term US debt is more profitable than long-term debt. Economic theory says that in a “normal” situation, long-term lending should be more profitable than short-term lending.
An inverted yield curve occurs when the yield on short-term bonds (US03MY, US06MY, US01Y) is greater than the yield on longer-term bonds (US30Y, US20Y) .
This is bad for the economy and worse if it is the United States because it means that they are relying on the economy in the short term since the "normal" thing is that long-term bonds give better yields.
Some economists and analysts see in this situation an indicator that a next economic crisis is coming, either in the form of a slowdown in GDP or even a recession.
Silver & Gold. Long? Short?Remain neutral/bearish on gold & silver until the US10Y, DXY, & Fed Funds Rates tops.
This is the first time since the de-pegging of USD/Gold (in 1975) that interest rates & the USD have been rising.
This creates an extremely tough environment for gold & silver to significantly rally being under pressure from high dollar & rising interest rates.
Despite strong headwinds, there are many tailwinds as well that will lead many commodities prices higher such as, the clean transition, & the dollar (usd) devaluing.
Chart:
FED FUNDS Rate = Blue Line
BTC - Almost Halfway Through The Accumulation E've been comparing recent BTC capitulation and now accumulation at the lows with the one in 2015. They are very similar in accumulation structure as well a how deep both capitulations went. Don't get me wrong, i don't thing this is a true bottom formation like it was in 2015 leading to the next bull run, but only forming a local bottom that just happens to be very similar as one in 2015. After completing this accumulation i still expect BTC will go into a retracement that can still take us slowly back in 45-50k area, before continuing the falL.
From the comparison with todays price action wth the 2015 one, we can also expect btc to still reach the top of the range, make even higher local high (green box) and still then fall down to the bottom of the range (orange box), before starting a long awaited retracement.
It all depends on a macro picture of the economy by itself. Will see what the stock market does first, but charts do show a local bottom being set for now.
DISCLAMER:
I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 14, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
The immediate reversal on Friday of the vigorous upside rebound (Dead-cat ricochet) on Thursday was caused by the long-term specified Outer Index Dip 3530 (Oversold market): The downside target is the retest of the Key Sup 3505, Outer Index Dip 3530 with the Next Outer Index Dip 3450 is in the making. Following the completed above-specified targets, a short-term move leading to the newly created Mean Res 3633 is possible.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 14, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar's failed attempt to retest our Mean Res 0.9987 indicates high negative market sentiment; however, the retest of the newly created Mean Res 0.9780 is probable. As specified in the EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, the main downside targets continue to be our Key Sup 0.9595 and completed Inner Currency Dip 0.9570. Continuation to the next Outer Currency Dip of 0.9370 is in the making.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 14, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Bitcoin completed down movements to targets of Mean Sup $19,050 and Key Sup $18,400 as specified Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For October 7, with the possibility of extending to the prevailing move to #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 is much greater at the current market sentiment. The case of the short-term upside move to the Mean Res $20,385 is low.
NIFTY 50 NOT IN RECESSION!! DETAILED ANALYSISi have used a great colour to present my analysis.
so please go through the colours carefully.
INDIA is clearly not in recession, this makes us to understand its bottom point. lets start:
THE TWO BLUE LINES: represents the trend followed by NIFTY post corona's bull run.
and through drawing the PURPLE LINE, i have marked the bottom, and its area(sorry for the bad drawings :p)
i had followed the analysis by describing how that point i have marked is the recession point.
have a look at ORANGE LINE, its the bull run trend. after the bull run completed markets have consolidated(THE ORANGE CIRCLE)
FII entering in INDIAN markets made nifty to rise a more(till the orange circle)
DEFINING more about, THE ORANGE LINE, past from 23rd march till 12th April, nifty was on left side of the orange line, after that it came to other side. just a short observation of saying bull run got completed. (arrows are drawn have a good look).
THE TWO GREEN LINES are the support lines. now have a look at THE PURPLE ARCS. INDIA was not in a recession from the start so, it has just touched its support line, and never entered in recession. the same situation is now too.
check, THE DARK BLACK LINE, its the support line(which is supported many a times).
FINALLY, i conclude my analysis, where i have described how and where nifty 50 is in its position. i will post soon about its further trend lines(resistance and support).. stay connected!!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook
Repeated dead-cat moves to Mean Res 3720 and Mean Res 3775 - the letter partially fulfilled last week (as pointed out on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For September 30) was in order throughout the trading week. Short-term moves leading to the newly created Mean Res 3790 are possible. Currently, on the downside, the main target is Key Sup 3587, and Outer index Dip 3530 - Next Outer Index Dip 3450 is in the making.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar attempted to retest our Mean Res 1.0040 after breaking out thru Mean Res 0.9835. There is a possible short-term upside move to the newly created Mean Res 0.9987. On the downside, the main target is our Key Sup 0.9595 and completed Inner Currency Dip 0.9570. Continuation to the next Outer Currency Dip of 0.9370 is in the making.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD)Daily Chart Analysis For Week of October 7, 2022Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Bitcoin completed our interim rebound as specified Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For September 30. On the downside, the main target is our newly created Mean Sup $19,050, Key Sup at $18,400, and the next Outer Coin Dip at $17,200, with the possibility of extending to the prevailing move to #2 Outer Coin Dip at $15,500 - There are possible short-term upside moves to Mean Res $20,385.
Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ⁉️Bitcoin bull run when DXY tops out ⁉️
Nice BTC behavior when the US Dollar Index left the overbought area on the weekly RSI
If DXY follows the downwards channel a Crypto bull run might occur 🟢
Comments & FOLLOW appreciated 🤗
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
Tons of reasons to FEAR but some short term bounce signs show1/
There's a ton of fear atm
#CreditSuisse & #Deutsche_Bank all over $TWTR
How can anyone be bullish?
We warned from last year about the coming #MOAC(Mother of All Crashes) BUT short term there are signs of +, #crypto @ least is holding, needs to lead
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Will only post partial
US10Y-US02Y - compare RVGI indicator❌cross and BitcoinUpdate on US10Y-US02Y...
compare RVGI indicator❌cross and Bitcoin
Not a cross yet in the extreme area of this indicator that would mark a quite good entry for BTC
But the next cross for a possible Entry point is ahead dear Crypto Nation 💥🚀😎
Comments & FOLLOW appreciated 🤗
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing