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Short Term (de)correlation between S&P500 & Dollar IndexIf we try to follow the trend of the Dollar Index and SP500 in the short term, we can see how as the dollar rises there is consequently a decline in the U.S. Index, but this event is not absolute, in fact there are many variables at play. At the moment, however, many of these variables appear to be in favor of this inversely proportional swing, at least in the short term. If this analysis is correct, the next FED rate announcement should show further misalignment between the two sides, as the market should not be surprised by a 50bp rate hike (see chart below), so "wait & see"... 3 WEEK AGO TODAY DOLLAR INDEX ANALYSIS (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
CME_MINI:ES1!
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
Bitcoin Macro outlook 2023 . . .. . . and why is wise being Bearish on Bitcoin & crypto at the moment. Hi everyone , I make this super simple, so it even looks stupid. 1 Month Time Frame We see that after peeking at 69k price reversed and our modus operandi is sell to buy to sell . Meaning, we have large sells followed by buying just to proceed next large sell once price is elevated. This MO taking between 2-3 months in each shift. We already had our upside move in 2023 = price are elevated... ... global macro economy outlook is not so great either with high interest rates & inflation & situation between Ukrain- Russia not bringing any stability into west world either. Monthly candle close at around 15hours. If closing price is lower then 23315.95$ odds are highly shifting to favor further *selling TLTR: ´ We are up a lot from bottom, if we close under 23315,95$ on 1M, we have high probability that it will go to seek other end of liquidity upcoming months´ Joe
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by cryptocapitaltrading
7
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | FebuaryTable of Content: 1. Eurozone Inflation Data 2. US Economics Growth 3. NVDA 4. Commodities 5. Technical Analysis 1. Eurozone Inflation Data The Eurozone's inflation for the month of January has exceeded the previously estimated figures, as reported by MarketWatch on February 23. It has been emphasized by policymakers that the economy is undergoing a disinflation process, and a soft landing has been achieved. However, the recent surge in inflation within the European Union implies a substantial escalation in interest rates. 2. US Economic Growth The US economy experienced a less robust economic expansion than previously estimated in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by a downward revision in consumer spending. This adjustment has resulted in weaker economic growth (Bloomberg). The total amount of outstanding credit card debt in the United States has reached $986 billion, with an average interest rate of 20%. This marks the highest level of credit card debt since the 1980s and translates into an interest payment of $200 billion per year. These figures do not include other forms of debt such as mortgages, student loans, and car loans, which are likely to exacerbate the situation. At the same time, the US government is paying over $200 billion in interest payments The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index has risen from 5.3% to 5.4%, however, this data alone is insufficient to support the notion of disinflation. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downwards from 2.9% to 2.7% (a decrease of 0.2%) from the preceding quarter. According to Bloomberg, the US economy experienced a weaker expansion than originally projected. Revised fourth-quarter inflation figures have been adjusted upward. Additionally, JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon stated that "The Federal Reserve has lost a little bit of control of inflation". He has been warning about the economy for a while and I believe that he knows something is cracking as we speak. 3. NVDA The stock price of $NVDA experienced double-digit growth. The stock price has risen by 100% since the beginning of the year. Revenues and profits have both decreased by 21% and 52% respectively on a year-over-year basis, and every segment of the business has exhibited a decline over the same period. The CEO placed significant emphasis on the importance of Artificial Intelligence, yet he sold stocks worth over $100 million prior to the market's significant downturn and may presently be engaged in additional sales. 4. Commodities The statement suggests an anticipated appreciation in the value of the US dollar, which is reflected in the downward movements of gold, silver, platinum, copper, and various grains such as corn, rice, and soybean. Conversely, energy commodities are experiencing an upward trend, with natural gas exhibiting a significant increase. 5. Technical Analysis The 21-day weighted ratio of equity-only put-to-call options is suggestive of a preponderance of puts in the market and indicates a significant degree of buying pressure. This metric has demonstrated a high degree of efficacy in identifying market highs and lows by suggesting a move in the opposite direction to the put/call ratio. Notably, during the present bear market, the ratio has achieved a 100% success rate. Furthermore, the current volume of call options is the highest on record, and retail investors are contributing $1.1 billion daily to the market. -Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving downwards and volume remain below average (bearish) As previously stated, " I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels". I have now filled all my short position on BTC in a confident manner. Below is my BTC outlook Conclusion: The recent market rally, spurred by technical indicators, high-quantity puts, and government emphasis on disinflation, has led to a surge in retail investment. As a result, prices for some assets have skyrocketed, and the quantity of long positions in the market has reached alarming levels. This suggests an overabundance of buying and a lack of liquidity that could cause the market to dip and potentially result in retail closures, as inflation has proven to be more persistent than anticipated by governments. I remain committed to my long-term investment plan, I am acknowledging the growing fissures in some economies that could lead to a catastrophic downturn. It is essential to remain vigilant and prepare for potential market turbulence in the future. As previously mentioned, my portfolio consists of short-term bonds, USD, SPX shorts, BTC Shorts, small quantity gold, and just acquired Natural gas contracts. For personal records but feel free to discuss or argue.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The index Mean Res 4145 was the culprit target with the recent Intermediary Up Trend as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17; all three targets were hit - Mean Sup 4060, Mean Sup 4015, and the Inner Index Dip 3980. The newly created Mean Res 4028 is our intermediate upside target - Dead-cat bounce. Keep in mind that the current bearish market sentiment is intact. There is a significant possibility that the Mean Sup 3890 and retest could be undertaken of Key Sup 3785 and completed of the Inner Index Dip 3785 as well.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar continued a downward spiral this week, as shown on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17. The price action hit our Mean Sup 1.066 for several days, indicating its bearish mode. The leading downside target designation is Mean Sup 1.052 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.046. Once this puppy hits our targets, we will see a revival to the upside aiming for the main target of the Mean Res 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After hitting our Key Res $24,500, as shown on the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of Feb 17, the coin is retreating aggressively, striking our target of the Mean Sup $23,500 as marked and showing an earmark move to Mean Sup $21,500. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence to the upside - the initial target of Key Res $25,000 with a rally all the way to the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and the Extended Outer Coin Rally of $27,000 targets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
DXY - Will US Dollar history of 1981 repeat? 🔲DXY Will the USD find support at this important monthly line🔲and history of 1981 repeat with a bullish run⁉️🚨 Personally I don't expect that due to the parabolic $-M1 Supply But what are your thoughts on that dear #Bitcoin and Crypto Nation? Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
TVC:DXY
by Crypto4Everybody
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The index continues to respect our Mean Sup 4060 target as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 10. The newly created Mean Res 4145 is our intermediate upside target - However, keep in mind that the temporary bearish market sentiment is intact, and a significant possibility that the Mean Sup 4060 retest could be undertaken with an eye on the inner stepping stone of Mean Sup 4015 and completion of the Inner Index Dip 3980.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
3
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin is resting comfortably at our Key Res $24,500, as shown on the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of Feb 16. We expect a pullback to our Mean Sup $23,500 for this week's price action. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence to the upside - the initial target of Key Res $24,500 (Retest) with a rally all the way to the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and Soon-To-Be the Outer Coin Rally of $27,000 outcome.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
P2P | DXY - 2.16.23Hello everyone! Thanks for being patient with the content, just finished building the studio setup so I can really dive into the markets and give in depth analysis. In this clip I will be discussing my take on DXY for the next few weeks to Q2 and Q3. As you can see the #dollar has made a significant pullback to an area of previous support, where its also trading under the most recent support. There is no news from today/tonight until Feb 21st for #DXY, I believe it will be an opportunity for the #centralbanks (Whales) to collect orders and take out any retail or liquidity. Following the accumulation into distribution phase, I'd say we could see a continuation of a #bearish dollar to hunt the biggest liquidity pool before continuing a #bullishtrend I won't be trading live until April due to some strategy testing so I hope you guys and gals can appreciate the breakdowns of the dollar. Remember, this is for you to frame your own idea around the market and use what works for your analysis. As always gang, happy trading, trade well, and lets run it up from 2023 til infinity! You can help continue to grow the page by liking and following the channel, and if you get any value from this to boost it too! DISCLAIMER ***This page is for educational purposes only and is not intended for any financial arise. I am not a financial advisor nor do I manage any other accounts for users. Any trades you take will be of your own doing and P2P will not be held responsible.***
TVC:DXYLong
by Pips2Porsches
1
End Of The Dollars Plummet?What you see here is a larger time frame analysis of the overall price action of DXY(dollar). Price has moved away from previous major resistance and is now showing bullish price action and is now showing resistance at a price area that previously caused a strong sell of (supply). Price will consolidate here before choosing a direction which I believe will be to the upside. Wait for break of yesterdays manipulated high for entry with stop below the red supply line.
TVC:DXYLong
by CJITM
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook Spooz hit our Mean Sup 4060 target as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 3. With the confirmation of the Key Res $4180 in place, the current dead cat rebound is expected to take us to Mean Res 4120 - However, keep in mind that the bullish market sentiment is intact, and a significant possibility that the Key Res $4180 retest could be launched with an eye on completion of the Outer Index Rally 4230. But if all fails, the index will take us down to two Mean Support targets: 4015 and 3970, for this week's trading scenario.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter