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Economic Cycles

GANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICEGANN TRADING LESSON: TIME IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PRICE – THE CORE OF W.D. GANN’S METHODOLOGY William Delbert Gann, one of the most enigmatic figures in trading history, built his legendary status on a profound understanding of market movements. Among his many revolutionary insights, none resonate more than his assertion: “TIME is more important than PRICE.” Gann's studies reveal that markets are governed by cyclical laws where TIME dictates market behavior, and PRICE merely reflects the outcomes. This article delves deeply into Gann’s philosophy, integrating examples, methodologies, and references from his works, to illuminate why mastering TIME can give traders a significant edge. Understanding the Superiority of TIME in Trading 1. The Foundation of Gann’s Philosophy: - In his book “The Tunnel Thru the Air”, Gann states, “The future is but a repetition of the past; cycles can be studied and predicted with mathematical precision.” - This emphasizes that TIME controls market events. Price, on the other hand, is secondary—a mere result of the unfolding TIME cycles. 2. Why TIME is More Important Than PRICE: - PRICE is Reactive: Price changes happen as a result of events, but those events themselves are determined by TIME cycles. Without the correct timing, price predictions are speculative at best. - TIME is Predictive: Understanding TIME cycles allows traders to foresee when significant price movements are likely to occur, providing a roadmap for market behavior. 3. The Illusion of PRICE: - Traders often fall into the trap of chasing prices—buying highs or selling lows—without realizing that markets move within predetermined TIME windows. Gann showed that price breakouts or breakdowns are unsustainable if they occur outside critical TIME cycles. Key Concepts from Gann’s Methodology on TIME 1. The Law of Vibration: Gann believed that every market has its unique vibration, influenced by TIME cycles. In “The Law of Vibration”, Gann explains that market movements align with natural and cosmic vibrations, which repeat over TIME. 2. Cyclicality of Markets: Markets move in cycles determined by TIME. Gann’s studies revealed major cycles such as: - The 20-Year Cycle: Markets often exhibit significant highs or lows every 20 years. - The 60-Year Cycle: This aligns with major economic booms and depressions. - Planetary Cycles: Gann tied TIME cycles to planetary movements, including the 11.86-year Jupiter cycle and Saturn’s 29.5-year orbit. 3.The Square of Nine and TIME Projections: Gann’s Square of Nine is one of his most famous tools. While often used to predict price levels, it is equally powerful for determining TIME turning points. Example: The Square of Nine can map out important dates when markets are likely to reverse, based on the angle of price and TIME. 4. Geometry in TIME: In “The Geometry of Stock Market Profits”, Gann emphasized the relationship between price and TIME through angles. A 1x1 angle (45 degrees) represents the ideal balance between price and TIME. Any deviation from this angle signals acceleration or deceleration in the trend. 5. Astrological Influence on TIME: Gann’s work integrates astrology to predict TIME cycles. He studied planetary aspects, transits, and lunar phases to determine when markets would experience significant changes. Example: Gann highlighted the importance of eclipses, retrogrades, and planetary conjunctions in marking market highs and lows. Practical Applications of TIME in Trading 1. Time-Price Symmetry: Gann believed that price movements often mirror TIME durations. Example: If a market drops 100 points over 10 days, it is likely to recover 100 points over a similar TIME interval. 2. Repetition of Historical Cycles: Gann showed that the 1929 crash followed a similar TIME pattern to earlier financial crises. By studying historical TIME intervals, traders can predict future market events. Timing Highs and Lows: 3. Use Fibonacci TIME zones to identify when markets are likely to peak or bottom. Combine this with Gann’s techniques, such as using the Square of Nine, for precise predictions. Seasonality and TIME Cycles: 4. Markets are influenced by seasonal and cyclical TIME patterns. Gann demonstrated that major market reversals often coincide with solstices, equinoxes, and other seasonal turning points. Examples of TIME’s Importance in Gann’s Predictions 1. The 1929 Stock Market Crash: Gann predicted the crash using TIME cycles, noting that it occurred 60 years after the Panic of 1869 and 30 years after the 1899 bear market. 2. The 1987 Crash: Gann’s methods, when applied to long-term TIME cycles, also align with the 1987 crash. It occurred exactly 58 years after the 1929 collapse, reflecting the repetitive nature of TIME cycles. The Interplay Between TIME and PRICE While PRICE is easier to track and analyze, Gann believed that the greatest trading success comes from aligning PRICE movements with TIME predictions. He illustrated this in his “Master Forecasting Course”, where he taught students to: - Map out major TIME cycles. - Identify the angles and relationships between TIME and PRICE. - Use TIME as a framework to validate PRICE movements. Steps to Master Gann’s TIME Methodology Study Historical Cycles: - Identify significant market events and analyze the TIME intervals between them. Use Tools Like the Square of Nine: - Plot critical TIME intervals to predict market reversals. Combine TIME Analysis with Price Patterns: - Validate price movements with TIME projections to confirm trends or reversals. Incorporate Natural and Planetary Cycles: - Use planetary ephemerides and lunar calendars to enhance TIME forecasts. Conclusion: Why TIME is the Ultimate Edge Gann’s timeless wisdom teaches us that focusing solely on PRICE is like chasing shadows. TIME is the true master, dictating when markets turn, rally, or crash. By mastering TIME, traders can move from being reactive to predictive, seizing opportunities before they manifest. As Gann said, “When TIME is up, price will reverse.” This simple yet profound truth encapsulates the essence of his methodology. Focus on TIME, and the illusion of PRICE will reveal its secrets. Join the Discussion: Do you agree with Gann that TIME is the most critical factor in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences below!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GannAstroTrader
The Road Map to 50K ETHI believe Ethereum will be the tokenization network of the future and the road map to 50K by 2026 is intact. Ethereum's development roadmap presents a bullish outlook, emphasizing scalability, sustainability, and security. The shift to Proof-of-Stake (The Merge) reduces energy consumption by 99%, appealing to eco-conscious stakeholders. Upcoming milestones like Danksharding and rollup-centric scaling aim to massively increase transaction throughput while lowering costs, ensuring user adoption. Enhanced security with features like withdrawal credentials and MEV resistance fortify the network. Ethereum's continuous evolution, developer engagement, and dominance as the foundation for DeFi, NFTs, and Web3 applications position it as a cornerstone of the blockchain future. ethereum.org I still believe Ethereum could surpass bitcoin market cap in the next 10-20 years due to real yield, network volume, and deflationary supply projections. The future is still bright and it's very early.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Audacity618
Shiba shortterm movement predictionAs matter of fact i believe Shiba can see higher price even more than beside this believe I also certain about the movement of doge before Shiba - which means At first doge will begin its bullish movement something like XRP and after that the second largest meme coin will begin its upward trend for about one month and will meet its new ATH, So for first step Shiba needs to has large volume trade above 0.0004 where can see it after 30% gain price price price
Long
by kamali.bashir
BITCOIN $250K - Get Ready to Get RichHello everyone! Today, I’m excited to dive into my latest analysis of the Bitcoin cycle, showcased through a weekly view chart that breaks away from conventional wisdom. Rather than adhering to the often-disputed parabolic curves that have been a staple in crypto charts since 2017—curves which have consistently either underperformed or overshot the mark—I'm bringing something different. My analysis is based on a trend line that I've meticulously tracked since 2013. This line has proven incredibly resilient, never once being undercut as of now in 2024. This steadfast pattern leads me to an ambitious yet attainable target: Bitcoin reaching USD 250,000. This projection suggests more than a doubling from our current position within this cycle’s parabolic phase. Interestingly, the duration of these parabolic phases has been extending with each cycle: 427 days in 2013, 525 days in 2017, 567 days in 2021. Based on this pattern, I anticipate the current cycle will span approximately 600 days, concluding around the end of 2025. I’d love to hear your thoughts and predictions. Where do you see Bitcoin heading in this cycle? Let’s discuss below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by LGNDRY-Capital
SUIUSDT jump 📈 SUIUSDT Trend Analysis 🚀 Looks like SUI just broke through a major resistance level at $1.9740! 🔥 This breakout could signal a bullish continuation 📈, especially if it holds above this level. The next profit targets are marked around $4.4444 and $7.7002 💰 – good spots for traders to consider locking in profits. 📝 Key Tips: Follow the trend as long as support holds. Stick to money management rules to protect your gains 🛡️. Let’s see if SUI can reach those higher levels! 🤑💪
Long
by ahmadarz
Bitcoin has tested a previous resistance as support Bitcoin has tested a previous resistance line as support here at 97,000 USD. This has occured at the same time as a short term diagonal support. so things are looking favourable for now. Short term SMAX is sitting nicely at >50, so a good time to add to your SMAX position. Marco: Mcro remains positive with the post trump confidence, interest rates over their peak with weak data suggesting they will need to continue downward. Cycle: We are late into the bull cycle with the second half pump on its way, best to maintain position long to ensure we capture it. Levels: as above, we have confirmed a small previous resistance line as support and with short term smax looing favourable >50%. Momentum: we are still in a short term bearish momentum, within a overall marco long momentum, I don't expect the short term bearishness to continue much longer. Currently 5 profitable trades, 0 losses, Follow me on YouTube and X for the history of my trades. Join me to learn about the SMAX trading approach!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by MangosteenBTC
Alt Season is Right Around the CornerBitcoin dominance has been growing in the past few days as it outperforms the rest of the cryptocurrency market after the sharp drop last week. Many things are pointing towards Bitcoin continuing to outperform in the short term as we gear up for the next parabolic bull market. However, alt season is very close and, once BTC confirms it's breakout towards 100k, a lot of the large caps like Ethereum and Solana will begin to go up very quickly. This is based on my cyclical analysis of alt seasons. To get a better idea of the cyclicality of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and alt seasons, check out my previous post which predicts the next parabolic rise in November: An important thing to note when referring to alt seasons is that they don't last long (only a few months). So understand your timeframe when investing over the coming weeks. Another important idea is how money tends to flow during this period. It historically starts with Bitcoin breaking its all time high and beginning to rise. During this time, altcoins tend to underperform. But once BTC consolidates and begins to go sideways, that's when the rest of the market has time to catch up. In the chart I show 4 key points: Bitcoin This is when BTC makes a significant breakout whether that's from a significant resistance level or its ATH. This is where BTC is outperforming 99% of the market. Ethereum & Large Caps BTC will begin to slow down and a lot of the major altcoins will see a big increase. This is where you can find great trade setups on the BTC pairs like ETHBTC, SOLBTC, etc. BTC Consolidates BTC will start to go sideways, cooling off and preparing for its next rise. From here you might see some pumps in mid-low caps. These tend to be volatile and hard to predict. Small caps - Quick and fast As BTC continues to go sideways, some small caps might experience quick pumps in price. Similarly, these tend to be even more volatile and hard to predict. After this, the pattern repeats back up to Bitcoin until we reach a peak and begin a new bear market. The cryptocurrency bull market is brewing up and alt season can offer some incredibly profitable opportunities. Plan ahead, and don't overtrade.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by spilkerBTC
2
previous cycle - ETH vs BTC.D vs BTCBitcoin has just done the biggest dump today! from 104k to 96k. I just went through the past.. Left: ETH Center: BTC.D (dominance) Right: BTC Here we have clear visibility of the rotation of funds from BTC to ETH. We can see that on the previous cycle, after the first temporary top of Bitcoin (65k), with a bad candle closure, the dominance continued fall in down and for 2-3 weeks after, ETH registered a +70% , despite to BTC. Hope that this could help you to stay on your ALTS plan and to don't care about the FUD you're feeling with these movements.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DLong
by Alex_Chart
EOS/USD Main trend. ChannelMain trend. logarithmic graph. Time frame 1 month. Channel. Secondary trends in market cycles. Mirror zone of resistance. Future fractal. Coinmarketcap : EOS This time frame is for understanding the direction of the trend and where the area for trading is now. Such a time frame gives an understanding of where the zones are expensive/cheap (accumulation/distribution). Chart of the Bitfinex exchange (closely related to the coin) with the longest history of trading, it began the first trading of EOS after the ICO in 2017. The same parameters, but on a line chart.
BITFINEX:EOSUSD
by SpartaBTC
28
BTC | BITCOIN ATH | ALTSEASON A comprehensive analysis today on my take regarding Bitcoin , BTC All time High, and for how long we can still expect to see altseason. When I say altseason, what I am referring to is hard pumps and large increases, scattered across the altcoin market. In the previous BTC update, I considered an ATH between 99k and 105k. More on that here : Today's main "concern" is really whether or not the alt-rallies are finished - and I say, not yet . ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Long
by CryptoCheck-
Predicting Avalanche (AVAX) Prices Using BTC/AVAX Ratio 1. Key BTC/AVAX Ratios: 900 BTC/AVAX Ratio: This ratio implies that Bitcoin’s price is 900 times Avalanche’s price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $180. For Bitcoin at $200,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $220. 400 BTC/AVAX Ratio: This ratio suggests that Bitcoin’s price is 400 times Avalanche’s price, indicating significant relative strength for AVAX. For Bitcoin at $160,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $400. For Bitcoin at $200,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $500. 2. Support and Reversal Zones: Early Reversal at 900 BTC/AVAX Ratio: Historical patterns suggest that the 900 BTC/AVAX ratio represents an early reversal zone for AVAX, signaling the start of upward momentum relative to Bitcoin. Strong Reversal at 400 BTC/AVAX Ratio: At the 400 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX shows strong relative performance, likely signaling a strong reversal zone, where AVAX significantly appreciates in USD terms. 3. AVAX Price Dynamics: BTC Bull Market Scenario: If Bitcoin achieves $160,000–$200,000, AVAX’s price depends on its performance relative to BTC: At the 900 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX could rise to $180–$220 as it begins its upward trend. At the 400 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX could surge to $400–$500, demonstrating stronger performance relative to BTC. Market Sentiment and Ecosystem Development: AVAX’s ability to reach the lower BTC/AVAX ratio levels will depend on its ecosystem adoption, development progress, and overall market conditions. 4. Assumptions for the Prediction: Bitcoin reaches a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 during a bullish market phase. Avalanche’s price is modeled as a function of Bitcoin’s price and the BTC/AVAX ratio, reflecting its relative valuation and performance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha
US government scared traders, but investors aren't afraidHello, The US government moved 10K #bitcoin worth $963 million to Coinbase, which can fuel bearish pressure, but the market seems strong. I copied a relevant tweet into the chart. When Bitcoin inflow to exchanges goes up, the price usually goes down. It happened now. That's why the last five 4-hour candles print a bearish pattern. However, the market, according to the MACD, is still in a bullish trend. According to the Fear and Greed index, investors aren't afraid and most likely will exploit the bearish candle pattern to buy more in the bullish trend as the long position on the chart shows. The government's selling pressure will meet with investors' buying appetite. However, as long as the market remains this greedy, I don't see Bitcoin making new ATH. $99.8k might stay as a local top in the near future. So, in the upcoming week, I expect consolidation to unfold between the two white levels, $94.5k and $98.7k, in a price range marked by the white arrow, enabling large-cap altcoins to outperform Bitcoin according to the Large Caps phase of the Crypto Money Flow Cycle. The session volume profile further contributes to the idea of consolidation because there's much trading going on between the two white levels. The high volume above $94.5k is attractive to both buyers and sellers. That's why I believe the consolidation will unfold in this price zone. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Elysian_Mind
Cardano (ADA) Prices Prediction Using BTC/ADA Ratio 1. Key BTC/ADA Ratios: 40,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: This ratio implies that Bitcoin's price is 40,000 times Cardano's price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, ADA is predicted to range around $4. For Bitcoin at $200,000, ADA is predicted to range around $5. 20,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: This ratio indicates that Bitcoin's price is 20,000 times Cardano's price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, ADA could reach $8. For Bitcoin at $200,000, ADA could rise to $10. 2. Support and Reversal Zones: Early Reversal at 40,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: Around the 40,000 BTC/ADA ratio, historical patterns suggest this level often triggers an early reversal, indicating a potential upward movement for ADA relative to BTC. Strong Reversal at 20,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: At the 20,000 BTC/ADA ratio, a strong reversal is most likely, where ADA significantly outperforms Bitcoin, potentially leading to higher ADA prices in USD terms. 3. ADA Price Dynamics: BTC Bull Market Scenario: If Bitcoin achieves $160,000–$200,000, ADA’s price will depend on its relative strength: At a 40,000 BTC/ADA ratio, ADA could experience an early reversal, gaining momentum for further price appreciation. At a 20,000 BTC/ADA ratio, ADA could experience a strong rally, reaching prices in the $8–$10 range. Market Sentiment and Momentum: ADA’s ability to approach and reverse at these levels depends on Cardano’s ecosystem developments, adoption, and overall market conditions. 4. Assumptions for the Prediction: Bitcoin reaches a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 during a bullish market phase. Cardano’s price is modeled as a function of BTC’s price and the BTC/ADA ratio, reflecting relative valuation and market dynamics. This approach highlights Cardano's potential price trajectory, factoring in Bitcoin’s expected growth and BTC/ADA ratio trends. The early and strong reversal levels provide actionable insights for traders and investors tracking ADA's performance relative to Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha
Predicting Ethereum Classic (ETC) Prices Using ETH/ETC Ratios Key ETH/ETC Ratios: 50 ETH/ETC Ratio: This ratio implies that Ethereum's price is 50 times Ethereum Classic's price. For ETH at $10,000, ETC is expected to reach $200. For ETH at $15,000, ETC is expected to reach $300. 40 ETH/ETC Ratio: This scenario indicates stronger relative performance of ETC, where Ethereum's price is 40 times ETC's price. For ETH at $10,000, ETC could reach $250. For ETH at $15,000, ETC could reach $375. Price Levels Derived from Ratios: The chart identifies historical resistance and support levels for the ETH/ETC ratio, suggesting potential turning points for ETC's valuation relative to ETH. Key Support and Resistance Zones: The ETH/ETC ratio around 50 represents a significant historical level, implying consolidation or resistance. A lower ratio (e.g., 40) suggests ETC is gaining strength relative to ETH, potentially breaking out to higher price levels. ETC Price Prediction Dynamics: ETH Bull Market Scenario: If Ethereum achieves $10,000–$15,000, ETC’s price depends on its performance relative to ETH: At a 50 ETH/ETC ratio, ETC could consolidate in the $200–$300 range. At a 40 ETH/ETC ratio, ETC could rally higher to the $250–$375 range. The predictions align with the chart's historical patterns, where ETC tends to follow ETH's trend but can gain relatively stronger momentum in specific market conditions. Market Implications: ETH Dominance: Ethereum's price trajectory heavily influences ETC. The ETH/ETC ratio reflects not only market sentiment for Ethereum Classic but also its relative adoption and performance. Support Levels: The long-term ascending trendline on the chart suggests ETC is in a broader uptrend, with support around 50 and a potential breakout toward 40 in a strong bull market. This predictive approach ties Ethereum Classic's price directly to Ethereum's expected performance, leveraging ETH/ETC ratios as critical indicators for market dynamics and valuation shifts.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by kaupha
Predicting Dogecoin Prices Based on BTC/DOGE Ratio: Key LevelsKey Ratios for BTC/DOGE: 130,000 BTC/DOGE Ratio: This indicates that Bitcoin's price would be 130,000 times Dogecoin's price. For example, if Bitcoin reaches $160,000–$200,000, Dogecoin's price is predicted to be $1.23–$1.54. 80,000 BTC/DOGE Ratio: Here, Bitcoin's price is 80,000 times Dogecoin's price. For the same Bitcoin range ($160,000–$200,000), Dogecoin's price is expected to be $2.00–$2.50. Price Levels Derived from BTC/DOGE Ratio: The DOGE price at these ratios depends directly on Bitcoin's USD value: At a 130,000 BTC/DOGE ratio: If BTC = $160,000 → DOGE = $1.23. If BTC = $200,000 → DOGE = $1.54. At an 80,000 BTC/DOGE ratio: If BTC = $160,000 → DOGE = $2.00. If BTC = $200,000 → DOGE = $2.50. Support Zones for the Ratio: The chart suggests that 130,000 and 80,000 BTC/DOGE ratios are critical levels where historical price reversals or consolidations have occurred. These levels act as potential support zones, indicating areas where DOGE might gain strength relative to BTC. DOGE Prediction Logic: If Bitcoin continues a bullish run toward $160,000–$200,000, Dogecoin's price will depend on how the BTC/DOGE ratio moves. At 80,000, DOGE could achieve a higher price relative to Bitcoin, assuming DOGE gains significant market momentum or BTC consolidates. Market Dynamics and Assumptions: BTC Bull Market: Your prediction is contingent on BTC reaching $160,000–$200,000. If BTC does not hit this range, the DOGE price targets may not align with the predicted ratios. DOGE Strength: The movement between these ratios assumes DOGE will gain value either through its own momentum or through BTC’s price rise.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha