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Economic Cycles

EOS/USD Main trend. ChannelMain trend. logarithmic graph. Time frame 1 month. Channel. Secondary trends in market cycles. Mirror zone of resistance. Future fractal. Coinmarketcap : EOS This time frame is for understanding the direction of the trend and where the area for trading is now. Such a time frame gives an understanding of where the zones are expensive/cheap (accumulation/distribution). Chart of the Bitfinex exchange (closely related to the coin) with the longest history of trading, it began the first trading of EOS after the ICO in 2017. The same parameters, but on a line chart.
BITFINEX:EOSUSD
by SpartaBTC
28
BTC | BITCOIN ATH | ALTSEASON A comprehensive analysis today on my take regarding Bitcoin , BTC All time High, and for how long we can still expect to see altseason. When I say altseason, what I am referring to is hard pumps and large increases, scattered across the altcoin market. In the previous BTC update, I considered an ATH between 99k and 105k. More on that here : Today's main "concern" is really whether or not the alt-rallies are finished - and I say, not yet . ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
Long
by CryptoCheck-
Predicting Avalanche (AVAX) Prices Using BTC/AVAX Ratio 1. Key BTC/AVAX Ratios: 900 BTC/AVAX Ratio: This ratio implies that Bitcoin’s price is 900 times Avalanche’s price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $180. For Bitcoin at $200,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $220. 400 BTC/AVAX Ratio: This ratio suggests that Bitcoin’s price is 400 times Avalanche’s price, indicating significant relative strength for AVAX. For Bitcoin at $160,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $400. For Bitcoin at $200,000, AVAX is predicted to range around $500. 2. Support and Reversal Zones: Early Reversal at 900 BTC/AVAX Ratio: Historical patterns suggest that the 900 BTC/AVAX ratio represents an early reversal zone for AVAX, signaling the start of upward momentum relative to Bitcoin. Strong Reversal at 400 BTC/AVAX Ratio: At the 400 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX shows strong relative performance, likely signaling a strong reversal zone, where AVAX significantly appreciates in USD terms. 3. AVAX Price Dynamics: BTC Bull Market Scenario: If Bitcoin achieves $160,000–$200,000, AVAX’s price depends on its performance relative to BTC: At the 900 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX could rise to $180–$220 as it begins its upward trend. At the 400 BTC/AVAX ratio, AVAX could surge to $400–$500, demonstrating stronger performance relative to BTC. Market Sentiment and Ecosystem Development: AVAX’s ability to reach the lower BTC/AVAX ratio levels will depend on its ecosystem adoption, development progress, and overall market conditions. 4. Assumptions for the Prediction: Bitcoin reaches a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 during a bullish market phase. Avalanche’s price is modeled as a function of Bitcoin’s price and the BTC/AVAX ratio, reflecting its relative valuation and performance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha
US government scared traders, but investors aren't afraidHello, The US government moved 10K #bitcoin worth $963 million to Coinbase, which can fuel bearish pressure, but the market seems strong. I copied a relevant tweet into the chart. When Bitcoin inflow to exchanges goes up, the price usually goes down. It happened now. That's why the last five 4-hour candles print a bearish pattern. However, the market, according to the MACD, is still in a bullish trend. According to the Fear and Greed index, investors aren't afraid and most likely will exploit the bearish candle pattern to buy more in the bullish trend as the long position on the chart shows. The government's selling pressure will meet with investors' buying appetite. However, as long as the market remains this greedy, I don't see Bitcoin making new ATH. $99.8k might stay as a local top in the near future. So, in the upcoming week, I expect consolidation to unfold between the two white levels, $94.5k and $98.7k, in a price range marked by the white arrow, enabling large-cap altcoins to outperform Bitcoin according to the Large Caps phase of the Crypto Money Flow Cycle. The session volume profile further contributes to the idea of consolidation because there's much trading going on between the two white levels. The high volume above $94.5k is attractive to both buyers and sellers. That's why I believe the consolidation will unfold in this price zone. Regards, Ely
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Elysian_Mind
Cardano (ADA) Prices Prediction Using BTC/ADA Ratio 1. Key BTC/ADA Ratios: 40,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: This ratio implies that Bitcoin's price is 40,000 times Cardano's price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, ADA is predicted to range around $4. For Bitcoin at $200,000, ADA is predicted to range around $5. 20,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: This ratio indicates that Bitcoin's price is 20,000 times Cardano's price. For Bitcoin at $160,000, ADA could reach $8. For Bitcoin at $200,000, ADA could rise to $10. 2. Support and Reversal Zones: Early Reversal at 40,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: Around the 40,000 BTC/ADA ratio, historical patterns suggest this level often triggers an early reversal, indicating a potential upward movement for ADA relative to BTC. Strong Reversal at 20,000 BTC/ADA Ratio: At the 20,000 BTC/ADA ratio, a strong reversal is most likely, where ADA significantly outperforms Bitcoin, potentially leading to higher ADA prices in USD terms. 3. ADA Price Dynamics: BTC Bull Market Scenario: If Bitcoin achieves $160,000–$200,000, ADA’s price will depend on its relative strength: At a 40,000 BTC/ADA ratio, ADA could experience an early reversal, gaining momentum for further price appreciation. At a 20,000 BTC/ADA ratio, ADA could experience a strong rally, reaching prices in the $8–$10 range. Market Sentiment and Momentum: ADA’s ability to approach and reverse at these levels depends on Cardano’s ecosystem developments, adoption, and overall market conditions. 4. Assumptions for the Prediction: Bitcoin reaches a price range of $160,000 to $200,000 during a bullish market phase. Cardano’s price is modeled as a function of BTC’s price and the BTC/ADA ratio, reflecting relative valuation and market dynamics. This approach highlights Cardano's potential price trajectory, factoring in Bitcoin’s expected growth and BTC/ADA ratio trends. The early and strong reversal levels provide actionable insights for traders and investors tracking ADA's performance relative to Bitcoin.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha
Predicting Ethereum Classic (ETC) Prices Using ETH/ETC Ratios Key ETH/ETC Ratios: 50 ETH/ETC Ratio: This ratio implies that Ethereum's price is 50 times Ethereum Classic's price. For ETH at $10,000, ETC is expected to reach $200. For ETH at $15,000, ETC is expected to reach $300. 40 ETH/ETC Ratio: This scenario indicates stronger relative performance of ETC, where Ethereum's price is 40 times ETC's price. For ETH at $10,000, ETC could reach $250. For ETH at $15,000, ETC could reach $375. Price Levels Derived from Ratios: The chart identifies historical resistance and support levels for the ETH/ETC ratio, suggesting potential turning points for ETC's valuation relative to ETH. Key Support and Resistance Zones: The ETH/ETC ratio around 50 represents a significant historical level, implying consolidation or resistance. A lower ratio (e.g., 40) suggests ETC is gaining strength relative to ETH, potentially breaking out to higher price levels. ETC Price Prediction Dynamics: ETH Bull Market Scenario: If Ethereum achieves $10,000–$15,000, ETC’s price depends on its performance relative to ETH: At a 50 ETH/ETC ratio, ETC could consolidate in the $200–$300 range. At a 40 ETH/ETC ratio, ETC could rally higher to the $250–$375 range. The predictions align with the chart's historical patterns, where ETC tends to follow ETH's trend but can gain relatively stronger momentum in specific market conditions. Market Implications: ETH Dominance: Ethereum's price trajectory heavily influences ETC. The ETH/ETC ratio reflects not only market sentiment for Ethereum Classic but also its relative adoption and performance. Support Levels: The long-term ascending trendline on the chart suggests ETC is in a broader uptrend, with support around 50 and a potential breakout toward 40 in a strong bull market. This predictive approach ties Ethereum Classic's price directly to Ethereum's expected performance, leveraging ETH/ETC ratios as critical indicators for market dynamics and valuation shifts.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by kaupha
Predicting Dogecoin Prices Based on BTC/DOGE Ratio: Key LevelsKey Ratios for BTC/DOGE: 130,000 BTC/DOGE Ratio: This indicates that Bitcoin's price would be 130,000 times Dogecoin's price. For example, if Bitcoin reaches $160,000–$200,000, Dogecoin's price is predicted to be $1.23–$1.54. 80,000 BTC/DOGE Ratio: Here, Bitcoin's price is 80,000 times Dogecoin's price. For the same Bitcoin range ($160,000–$200,000), Dogecoin's price is expected to be $2.00–$2.50. Price Levels Derived from BTC/DOGE Ratio: The DOGE price at these ratios depends directly on Bitcoin's USD value: At a 130,000 BTC/DOGE ratio: If BTC = $160,000 → DOGE = $1.23. If BTC = $200,000 → DOGE = $1.54. At an 80,000 BTC/DOGE ratio: If BTC = $160,000 → DOGE = $2.00. If BTC = $200,000 → DOGE = $2.50. Support Zones for the Ratio: The chart suggests that 130,000 and 80,000 BTC/DOGE ratios are critical levels where historical price reversals or consolidations have occurred. These levels act as potential support zones, indicating areas where DOGE might gain strength relative to BTC. DOGE Prediction Logic: If Bitcoin continues a bullish run toward $160,000–$200,000, Dogecoin's price will depend on how the BTC/DOGE ratio moves. At 80,000, DOGE could achieve a higher price relative to Bitcoin, assuming DOGE gains significant market momentum or BTC consolidates. Market Dynamics and Assumptions: BTC Bull Market: Your prediction is contingent on BTC reaching $160,000–$200,000. If BTC does not hit this range, the DOGE price targets may not align with the predicted ratios. DOGE Strength: The movement between these ratios assumes DOGE will gain value either through its own momentum or through BTC’s price rise.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by kaupha
BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.Main trend. Time frame 1 month. This idea is almost a clone (in meaning, not visualization) of my previous idea published 1.3 years ago: BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings. For great visualization and clarity I added leap years (pre-pump, pre-distribution), this applies to all markets, not just the “young” cryptocurrency market... That is, after it, just the price is in the zone of distribution (sales), which is identical with the price highs of the secondary trend. Bitcoin cycle 4 years: Year 1 - birth of a new bullish trend (leap year). By the way the next year 2024 is exactly like that. But, read carefully to understand the point. For some time the price moves sideways or with a small rise. Positive/negative alternates. Negative dominates. There is no interest in the crypto market. The traffic of stupid money is minimal. The volatility of the price of instruments is usually minimal. This phase of the market is also called "participation" (more relevant to the second part). In the final phase—active movement to the distribution zone (the zone of sales by large market participants—small). In a given year (or near this time zone in the previous year), there is typically a second dump (second price low) with more aggressive dynamics by a large %. Dump -60.66% 03 2020. On the chart as an example of past dump at -60.66% (magnet) at the start of Corona 03 2020 (taking advantage of the world situation) before pumping the market in the future. Always keep this kind of thing in mind and be prepared for it, even if you are sure it is unlikely. Observe mani management. Training idea/work 02 2020: Trading by trends and important areas using the example of BTC Something like a big triangle like 2020 is forming now. BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle 09 2023 Altcoins in this time zone cycle . Altcoins tend to be in their accumulation channels. Alternately, from time to time, some are “firing” (usually of lower liquidity). Some produce “takeouts” under the dial zones. The essence of this time zone for alts is to gain as much as possible % of positions from the market. The price is not important (the average price of a set is taken into account), alts typically follow the general market trend, which is logical and tactful from the position of long-term prospects of earning in cycles. Year 2 - Bull Market. Trend price maximum and distribution zone . Resetting positions by large market participants. That is, the smart money sells to the dumb at the market high. The 17 weeks post-halving ( 518 days, gematria ) zone of perfect selling in crypto asset allocation. Roughly speaking it's a zone near price highs, at least that's always been the case in past cycles of bitcoin and the crypto market as a projection of it. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Inadequate altcoin pumping. Typically, "old" cryptocurrencies are showing 5-10x (+500-1000%) of previous dialing zones. The average profit accumulation/distribution of almost any cryptocurrency is 5-8X, with the range of lows and highs (for hamsters) usually twice as large. A huge amount of all sorts of crypto speculative garbage "promising cryptocurrencies" and "bitcoin killers" is created ... Pumped at the most inadequate interest with holding the reset zone for a long period of time due to the huge traffic of "stupid money". It should be separately emphasized that in this time zone of the cycle huge traffic of “stupid money”, who want to get rich without understanding anything about it. The crowd is not afraid to buy. This is key. The media is all about the positive. A huge number of newly-formed crypto experts are young kids, whose expertise will disappear when the market turns around in the next sub-cycle.... Anyone can make money ("sitting on the trend"), even buying and holding anything for a while, of course, except for "promising high-tech crypto garbage" on inadequate pumps and with the same news positive accompaniment. Absolutely all alts including high capitalization never repeat their price highs to bitcoin. Year 3 Bear Market. Market dumps from area of distribution (selling) price highs to area of set (buying). Price typically drops about -70%-80% on bitcoin Typically, when a distribution support zone is broken, many scare tales or real negative news stories are created to scare and trigger a “crypto depression”. Subsequently, a mostly negative news backdrop dominates, usually of a made up fairy tale nature in “three lines” for the true fools. Holders of “promising crypto” are bleeding, hope for the price to return to the previous value and "faith in projects" are gradually fading away. The final phase is dominated by the view that it's all a “crypto scam”. Bitcoin will "die." Toward the end of the phase, there is always a “bloody month” (price minimum)—before the formation of the dialing zone. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins are declining from pumping highs before stopping the decline and moving sideways (set zones): Highly liquid 80-90% Medium liquid 90-96% Low liquid (extinction candidates) from -95% and below % conditional on such "crypto trash on the verge of life and death". Year 4 is the sideways zone, i.e. the accumulation zone. . In this time zone after a significant dump (more than a year) there is a corrective price recovery movement. This is the so-called "intermediate bitcoin pumping cycle". We are just in it at the moment. Altcoins in this time zone of the cycle. Altcoins of high and medium liquidity depreciate, as a rule, by -90-93%. Once this % depreciation is reached, horizontal accumulation channels (1 major zone) of position set for the next cycle are usually formed. "Cryptocurrency holders" who bought at or near price highs in the last cycle tend to all sell at a large loss in "tired of waiting" accumulation zones for their "promised bags of money". Low-liquid altcoins depreciate in price by -95% or lower. It is worth recalling that -95% from the previous -90% is -50%. That is another reduction of the deposit of the “grief trader” in two times. A part of altcoins, which with a small "community of believers in the wrapper" - “dies”. Often, the creators crypto run out of money for all sorts of marketing tricks. Then they pour the rest of their crypto phantom on the market, inventing some tale of hacking or something similar.... After that - "to the islands", until the next bull cycle. The sect of "deceived MMM depositors" scatters. The wrapper dies definitively.... Altcoins, including HYIP ones, which were created in the last cycle, are all depreciating. Out of the top 100 of the previous capitalization ranking, they depreciate beyond the top 1000. Never recover in capitalization and price not only to bitcoin, but also to the dollar in the future in the next cycle. This is what bitcoin trend cyclicality looks like on a linear price chart
BNC:BLX
by SpartaBTC
41
RUNE Indicator AnalysisRune chart is looking quite bullish. This Token did not have these kind of gains, like we can see on the Crypro Market (e.g. XRP, XLM, HBAR, ADA, ALGO). But I believe, this is due to RUNEs chart-structure. The Chart seems to be in an earlier stage of the Cycle. The Coins named in brackets seem to be the fruntrunners of this Cycle. Projects like Rune could in my eyes start gaining momentum, and slowly catch up to the leading ones. (This scenario of course requires the whole bullrin to continue) Technicals: Since Jun 23, the 4day-BullmarketSupportBand (blue band) is providing beautiful support and resistance throughout the wohole timeframe. Over the last 60 days it has been a strong support. The Price bouned off to the upside. -> This is a very bullish sign in my eyes. Elliott-Wave sub structure is creating a clear picture in my eyes, as well indicating a move to the upside.
BINANCE:RUNEUSDLong
by PF_Analysis
1
zk channelHello, I hope you have a good day Cycles: HWC:uptrend MWC:uptrend LWC:range I am looking for a long position as our major cycles are all bullish📈 Let's look for the entry point: We go from a risky entry point to a more secure entry point 0.2321=Stop loss is more likely if the risky entry point reacts especially to 0.2347 We can wait for the number of resistors to increase to increase its safety 0.2347=Let's wait for it to meet the resistance to see the reaction and make a diagnosis It is more secure, but we may lose movement You can choose one depending on your strategy and personality😉 If you want me to analyze a coin, tell me in the comment🫡 ⚠️ Do capital management to survive ⚠️
Long
by parsa_xa
TRX/USD Major trend. Channel. 17 11 2023Time frame 1 month. The ascending channel. A large triangle is forming in it with a base of about +550% (classic target workout from resistance breakdown). Secondary trend. Time frame is the same as 1 month. Triangle zone. Since the time frame is maximum 1 month, I set the maximum possible targets for the asset. Extremely strong resistance of the cryptocurrency, which from ICO +5500% (despite the conditional redistribution earlier several times) is a meridian channel (highlighted with a dotted line). I emphasize it. To earn consistently, you need to set adequate goals for most of the position. You can keep a small part of the whole position (not necessarily), for maximum "probability zone targets" (percentages are shown for clarity). After all, you can afford it since you will be in profit from the main position. When does the pump on large capitalization cryptocurrencies happen? Pumped when "the hamster is not scared", that is, at the very peak of market marketing. Although it is worth noting that pumped coins with large capitalization very rarely reach the so-called "probability" zones, and if it happens, then for a very short period of time. Pumps come (liquidity, large capitalization, HYIP) often on the last 5 waves of bitcoin pump (overflow of large capital money) in the distribution phase or on the pullback after it. TRX can be pumped under government events like BNB in 2020 ? BNB / USDT. Ascending channel. Cycle. Wedge. Reversal zones. Published 15 10 2020. Pumping +5500% From the average set price (at already +15,000% price values), the pump in the trend has occurred over +4400% to the highs of the distribution zone. BNB key capitulation zone, bottom, overpowering historical highs and super dump (probability zone): 🟣 Reset zone (carnival dump) $6.3$ 🔴 Zone of equalization and price consolidation after the dump 11.18$ 🟡 Zone of local ascending channel breakout (channel in channel) 39$ 🔵 Peak reset zone in the distribution cycle 670$ ❓Do you think it is possible to repeat the BNB HYIP on a notional Chinese blockchain TRX (in a country where supposedly cryptocurrencies are banned at the moment, but mass digitalization is underway) through which billions of dollars are transferred into USDT (cryptocurrency market pump) daily? By the way the charts are conventionally similar in meaning (trend holding on huge profits). Can TRX like BNB at one time make a super Pump on a large % already while holding on to a huge % profit? That is, will TRX cryptocurrency repeat the previous BNB hype given the usefulness of blockchain and the adoption of blockchain by a number of countries "now" and in the future? Action tactics. Super Pump. Risk Management. Quite possibly, but for very large sales targets (hamster) I would allocate probably no more than 5-10% of the total crypto coin position. And still in the market allocation zone I would keep these coins not on wallets, but in stop-loss to protect a very significant profit. To make big money (ta in general to earn at a distance), it is necessary to have an account of every penny and not to play in the casino, but only in the allowable, predictable risk. Pump/dump and super profit of "investors". ICO price It is worth noting that with ICO 2017 price is now about +5500% Price of token (then on ETH-ERC20) ICO: 1 TRX = 0.00000038 BTC ICO was fair, anyone could buy a token, which subsequently in 3 months will grow in value on the pamp method "stick" in 100 times. The capitulation zone (probability no more)). Repetition is the mother of learning. Partial reallocation of large holders (traders and investors) was in 2020 as well as most assets thanks to shaking out -60% in a couple days on 03 2020 from the accumulation zone. Will it happen again or not? Yes/No, you should always be prepared in any trend for such a hypothetical event that could significantly increase your asset holdings and deposit afterwards in the final unanticipated capitulation of the markets (multiple). Secondary trend. Time frame 3 days.
BINANCE:TRXUSDLong
by SpartaBTC
8
Elliott Wave View S&P 500 (SPX) Wave 5 in ProgressShort Term Elliott Wave view on SP500 (SPX) suggests rally from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5627.56 high and pullback in wave 2 ended at 5402.62 low. The Index then extends higher in wave 3 ending at 5878.46 high. The next pullback built a zigzag Elliott Wave structure to finish wave 4 at 5696.51 low like the 1 hour chart below shows. Actually, the SPX is trading higher in wave 5 developing an impulse or ending diagonal structure. Wave 5 rally is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 6017.31 high and wave ((ii)) retracement ended at 5853.01 low. Wave ((iii)) has started and it is trading in wave v of (iii) of ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5908.12 and wave (ii) correction ended at 5855.29. Then the SPX built a nest ending wave i at 5923.51 and wave ii at 5860.56. Wave iii of (iii) finished at 6025.42 and wave iv pullback at 5984.87 low. From here, we are expecting that wave v of (iii) completes soon and the index should see a pullback in 3 swings as wave (iv) before resuming higher in wave (v) of ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 5850.8 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
BTC long-term prediction Hi all, After initial reflection on Bitcoin's long-term prospects (see link below), I would like to make a more detailed analaysis for it in the next two or three years. Development cycles and characteristics I'll devide the evolution of BTC into three main cycles: Cycle 0: From the birth of BTC until November 2021 Cycle 1: From Nov 2011 to Nov 2018. In this cycle, we have observed two Halving events (November 28, 2012) and (July 9, 2016 Cycle 2: From Nov 2018 to Nov 2025. This cycle encompasses the most recent halving event (May 11, 2020) and the upcoming one (April 26, 2024) In every cycle, BTC has the following common price action Main Trendline Support: it confirms the exponential increase in BTC's price. Cycle High: it is intriguing to observe that Cycle Highs tend to materialize approximately 1 to 1.5 years after the halving event (or the birth) of BTC Break-down event: It happened two times and both on November (2011 and in 2018). This marks the end of a cycle. About historical BTC Highs Since its birth, BTC has achieved four Cycle Highs. Connecting two consecutive Cycle Highs with a trendline reveals that the slope of this line is halved (devided by 2) between two Halving Events. This gradual decrease in slope appears rational and organic, as exponential growth is typically unsustainable. What's even more intriguing is that this 1:2 ratio aligns with the reduction of mined BTC by half after each Halving Event (or the block reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions). Predictions for the next Halving and beyond By considering the aforementioned characteristics in BTC's evolution, we can utilize historical patterns to provide potential insights into the future. Here's a possible scenario: Leading up to the 4th Halving (scheduled for April 26, 2024), BTC prices are likely to align with the blue support trendline, and significant deviations from this trendline are not anticipated. Following the 4th Halving, BTC may enter an accelerated phase, potentially triggering a major bull run. A new price high could be achieved somewhere between May and September 2025, based on historical averages of the time needed for BTC to reach a new high after halving. This new price high is projected to be approximately $120k. However, it's essential to note that a subsequent bear market is expected to follow, possibly manifesting in November 2025. During this phase, BTC may experience a gradual decline, with prices potentially dropping as low as $30k. It's vital to remember that predicting the future with certainty in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is challenging and often speculative. These projections are based on historical trends and patterns but are subject to various unpredictable factors. What do you think about this analysis and what is your price prediction for BTC in the next bullrun?
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by evasivesteering
2
Don't Be Too Quick To Short The DollarYes, DXY closed with a strong weekly bearish engulfing candle, in fact, the first bearish candle close in 2 months. While this is a strong indicator of what's been a highly anticipated correction lower, if price action on the daily continues to trade higher aggressively, then we may see a short term rally before price sell's off. Despite this uncertainty, I see plenty of opportunity early in the week across the board. Here's how I'm positioned after Monday's development: DXY - LONG EURUSD - SHORT USDJPY - LONG GBPJPY - SHORT AUDUSD - NEUTRAL
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Unveiling Crypto Market Insights - Wen $100kHi Market Enthusiasts! Bitcoin approached the 100k price mark and is experiencing its first decrease in momentum after four consecutive green weeks. In this post, we'll examine where we stand in the four-year cycle and the significance of the pivotal 100k milestone for Bitcoin. Bitcoin position in the 4 year cycle In our post about Bitcoin cycles , we highlighted its cyclical nature and noted that the bull phase typically lasts about 150 weeks. Currently, we are in week 108 of this cycle's bull phase, suggesting there could still be some positive price action ahead. Importance of the $100k Price Level We have discussed the importance of round numbers in one of our posts . Round numbers like $100k often act as psychological barriers, influencing trader behavior. These levels frequently serve as key support or resistance points, prompting many to take profits or adjust orders strategically. In his book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy highlights the importance of caution when trading near such levels: "Traders aiming to sell on a bounce should set resting sell orders slightly below round numbers. Conversely, when setting protective stops on existing positions, it's wise to avoid placing them at obvious round numbers." Correction Bitcoin experienced its first correction after four consecutive weeks of gains, initially dropping 10% before recovering most of the loss to close the week with a 1% decline. In previous bull runs, Bitcoin corrections ranged from 10-30%, and in some cases, even more. The duration of corrections can vary, lasting anywhere from a few days to several weeks. Do you think the correction is over? If not, how long do you expect it to last, and how deep could it go? When do you think Bitcoin will test the $100k level again? Let us know in the comments
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bitstamp
When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat? A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late! Sometimes, you just have to let go, right? Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example. International Hotels Group (IHG) Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad. Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔 We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines. Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade. To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being. This helps define the trade risk very well. If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out. To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down ! From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too. That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750). So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation? The following is a way to have: An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more) Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk Entry Points and Stops 9000 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8600 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9200 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: 8800 GBX. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Risk: £1000. 9400 GBX Entry: Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points. Bet Size: £2.50 per point. Initial Risk: £1000. Profit Targets First Position (9000): Gain: 1000 points. Profit: £2500. Second Position (9200): Gain: 800 points. Profit: £2000. Third Position (9400): Trailing Stop Profit Example: 10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500. 11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more. Summary Total Risk: £3000. Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500. Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
LSE:IHGEducation
by jasperlawler
5
Standard & Poor's: Time is running outIn this idea i will share you the details from an Italian traders that let me think about an important correction from a technical and cyclical point of view: 1) On the max side: We are going to close a 3+ month cycle that could be the final part of the maxi cycle (max side) started at the end of 2021 and now, approaching to a close. Now we are in the third time of the 3+month cycle and we can have just another long try in the zone of the purple trendline (as drown by the zig-zag line), but i don't expect an important raise of the price. Then we can see the test with the trendline and understand better. But surely, max after the first 10 days of december we can start the descendig phase. Yes Sir, no Chrimtas Rally this time. 2) On the min side: We are on the second 3+month cycle, currently counts 18 daily bars and thinkig that we did not found a close for the first half cycle for the first month, and for what we discussed above for the max side cycle close, I expect that the time is running out and we're gonna to find a minimum also because I rember you that we are in 3rd time of the cylce started in Nov 22: first time oct 22, ott 23, second time oct 23, ago 24, third time ago 24 - ???. Then, I remember you that also this cycle, is part of the mega-cycle started after the covid-pandemic in march 2020, and that in this march it turns 5 years. So, I expect that starting shortly, we are going to start a bug desending phase with min target correction 20-25% I expect that the first interesting target from the descending point of view will be in the area of 5,702.86, low of Nov. 4,. 3) Moreover, there is an important divergence between the price and the RSI, an additional sign to support the shift in the market paradigm that I expect. If u find interesting my idea, please support me with a boost and feel free to ask questions in the comment. Thanks in advance for the attention. Hasta la vista! Omar Lima
SP:SPXShort
by omarlima9546