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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin and the end of the bull cycle!At this moment, many might start reading this article thinking that the bull cycle is over, but that’s not the reason I’m writing. My intention here is to provide you with advance notice of the temporal zones where you should seriously consider realizing profits from your hold portfolios and even be prepared to look at selling in the market. In the last cycles, this pattern has repeated, allowing us to replicate the projections. In the first cycle back in 2012, after marking the bottom and the Halving, the price moved parabolically in two structures: the first, marked in aqua green, represents the post-Halving effect; the second, in red, represents the full euphoria effect. This behavior repeated in the 2016 cycle and also in the 2019 cycle: What’s most interesting is that, in all cases, the time between the market bottom and the Halving is exactly the same as the time between the Halving and the market top. This is what I want to share with you: the points where the temporal zone suggests a possible inflection of movement or phase change. This shows us that until mid-March 2025, we will be experiencing the post-Halving phase, and after this phase, we will enter the euphoria zone. The possible inflection point of the cycle should occur around mid-September 2025. This study is based on analyzing the Fibonacci temporal zone and projecting the cycle based on symmetrical time behaviors from the past. This is not a guarantee that we will follow the exact same trajectory, but rather an additional basis for you to measure your exposure time to the cycle.
BNC:BLX
by leandrosander_
Bitcoin not due yet to go into full degen bull market modeIf history repeats itself - and so far history has repeated itself for Bitcoin every 4 years, we have not seen the true face of the Bitcoin bull market yet. Let's have a closer look at where and when things could really go ballistic to the upside by analysing its so-called logarithmic regression: You will see 3 different areas of importance on this chart: 1. A purple line showing the current "fair" price of Bitcoin according to the regression 2. A green channel marking the price area where Bitcoin should spend most of its time 3. A red channel marking the projected blow off tops for each bull run The pattern we usually see is that after a top somewhere within the red channel Bitcoin eventually falls back to the green channel (and sometimes below it) to then settle roughly around the purple line at the time of the halvings. What do these findings tell us about the current state of the bull market? Let's look at the price behaviour after the halving of 2016 and 2020.... It took Bitcoin around 300 days after the 2016 halving and 220 days after the 2020 halving to finally breach the green channel to the upside and go into, what I call, full degen frenzy bull market mode. This is the area between the green and red channel, where prices go ballistic and influencers on social media will talk about the how everything will be different this time and how everything is only going up from now on. As you can see Bitcoin currently is still quite far away from leaving the green channel to the upside. In fact if it would go into full frenzy bull market mode right now we would need to see prices well above 90,000 USD. If history repeats itself again and we can expect the price to leave the green channel to the north sometime 220 to 300 days after the halving. That would be sometime between November 2024 and February 2025 - the top of the green channel will then be around 100,000 USD. Price will then probably rise rather quickly to the red channel again where it will eventually top out and, once again, enter a bear market. Top prices should be somewhere between 200,000 USD and 300,000 USD in 2025. It is then time to get out of the market and go into hibernation once again to come back once the lower green band of the logarithmic regression is reached. The good news is....with prices currently around 67,500 USD there is still plenty of money to earn even until reaching the phase where the price of Bitcoin will really go ballistic. The bad news is... most people will be left behind and will probably fomo into Bitcoin (or the worse alternative: Altcoins) at prices between 150,000 USD and 200,000 USD. This, of course, is just my own opinion and no financial advise!
KRAKEN:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoForMoney
3
HATSUN AGRO - FMCG diversification IdeaHere are a few interesting things about chart and company: 1) It took 3 years for this chart to reclaim the 2017 high, and then stock rallied up to 2x and more from the previous high 2) On a monthly closing basis, it fell around 50% after 2017 before making a new high. If we consider all prices, then 60% Now, post September 21 (Stock price - 1400-1500), the stock has shown a maximum fall of 47% (43% closing) and recovered. Meanwhile, the institutional holdings have been going up. The number of total shareholders of this company is 25,000 (Screener.in), which indicates there's no sign of overownership in this idea. Considering the agriculture sector and possibly the populist budget of the upcoming coalition government, this stock might rally quickly and have the potential to give high returns in the short term. However, valuations are not cheap, so one has to consider investing in a staggered (3-5 phases) way and with a horizon of 6-18 months.
NSE:HATSUNLong
by LokeshSurana
FIL: trade in low cycle📊This price action analysis is from the analysis team of Ahmadarz Academy. 🚦In the four-hour time frame, I found a trading range formed by a bullish reaction with good volume candles from the bottom of this trading range. $5 support and $6.70 resistance 🔛According to this trend, I see the market as bullish, and I even expect it to go above the support ceiling of $6,800. Currently, we consider the risk-to-reward to be 4, which is the ceiling of the current trading range. 💎Entry strategy: To enter this trade, I tried to find the last trading range in the one-hour time frame and wait for it to break through the ceiling to give me confirmation of the ascent, and in the pullback, I try to check the first candlestick that confirmed my entry. and put a limit position on the same one in the upward direction. Entry and exit signal: ⬅️Entry: $6,095 🔴Stop Loss: $5,955 🟢Targets: $6.217 - $6.376 - $6.525 - $6.686 ⚠️Please note that this analysis is the opinion of the Ahmadarz Group team and is not an investment proposal, so follow the capital management because Ahmadarz Group is not responsible for your profits and losses. 🚀Please boost and💬 comment to share your thoughts with us!
Long
by ahmadarz
Bitcoin Halving CyclesI'm sure this is already out there but here it is again... These are the 4-year bitcoin cycles. They’ve repeated every 4 years thus far. It happens because bitcoin’s code was written that way. This feature makes bitcoin scarcer every four years. We can use gold as a real-world analogy – let’s say that the flow of newly mined gold that comes into the market was somehow stifled. For example, a gold mine gets swallowed up by a volcano. I have no idea if that is a thing, but if that happened, and people knew about it, the price of gold would go up due to this event because the resource would be scarcer at that point. With bitcoin this 4-year known event is called the ‘halving’ and it makes the commodity scarcer. This means that the reward for the newly ‘mined’ bitcoin is cut in half every 4 years. In the above screenshot, the halving dates are the yellow lines. The green lines are the new all-time high price that comes some number of days/weeks/months post-halving. As you can see, it’s rather predictable when the new all-time high comes in when measured from the halving. During the bull run that is tied to the halving, the whole of the crytpo market (usually) goes up too. This means that most of the other coins go up, and any crypto related stocks go up. For example, COIN (Coinbase’s ticker symbol) or RIOT (the company I invested in where I turned $15k from a 401k into $250k.. but then it tanked and I ended up with only $150k.. <> and that all happened in a very short period, like 3 to 5 months). But we shall see. I think it's interesting that there is this eclipse coming up on the same month/year as the halving.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by alexkeaton
4
Rand Continues to Devalue Against Dollar After Shock ElectionWeekly Wrap Up - Hope You Enjoy! DXY - Daily ERL was not breached and Weekly FVG not mitigated either as we closed the weekly with an explosive shift of structure higher on the H4. Daily run of liquidity was liquidity being engineered for an ultimate push higher., EURUSD - Initial bias on EU's daily run of monthly high (TBL) with a confluent 1H MMXM was correct as price ultimately displaced lower. GBPJPY - Fairly neutral the entire week after achieving daily ERL but failing to displace through. Anticipating further HTF consolidation on GJ which it tends to do after an extended impulse. USDZAR - Beautiful structure on this pair the entire week making continuous HH's & HL's. The daily FVG inversion was following by a 1H run of time-based liquidity which manipulated into a 4H 1-sided FVG. Anticipating displacement higher to Daily ERL short term. Political uncertainty around the future of South Africa's governing structure will continue to devalue the rand against the dollar. US30 - As the dollar gains strength I'm anticipating the sell off to continue in equity markets. Price has traded into an order block with a confluent FVG which is indicating an imminent reversal as the M15 begins to shift lower. Sam The Modern Day Trader
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
Junior Gold Miners Poised for Rapid ExpansionHello dear reader, This is a simple post, from a simple person. Note VanEcks Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) vs VanEcks Gold Miners ETF (GDX). Relative to the mids and majors, junior company investment is at an all-time low and has been for two years. Junior gold miners in general have been in a funding rut since 2016. Now, with the strong and long-awaited rise in gold and silver, is a prime opportunity to keep aware of ETF investments flowing into juniors (as well as mids and majors). Now is the time to find those strong gold juniors with strong management, fertile grounds, and healthy exploration budgets. The easiest thing to do is see who is getting investments from companies and major investors and follow the trail. For further consideration, plot GDXJ or GDX against GOLD and SILVER. Assuming metal prices hold, we are facing a generational heyday in the precious metals sector. Cheers.
AMEX:GDXJLong
by nothximgood
December 2022 = major short squeeze???Boring times in the crypto market so great opportunity to analyze deeper than usual. What I have found is that when BTCLONG crossed above RSI 50 level (monthly close March 2021), a long squeeze followed and it is still going on since April 2021. With monthly closure of November 2022 BTCSHORT will close above RSI 50 so I wonder whether there would follow a major short squeeze like, long squeeze in April 2021. I draw a Fib retracement and maximum pain for both sides show us a price level of around $ 31000. Maybe a Santa rally till this level is coming? What do you think?
Long
by MyNameIsEmrah
3