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Economic Cycles

Sell in May, return another day. The truth.No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase: “Sell in May, return another day.” In Wikipedia it is written: “Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash” If we are to take this at face value then we should be unwinding out long positions until the Autumn. What does the chart say? On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 12. The facts: 1) The following month, June onwards, 10 from 12 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice. 2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend. In summary, 83% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds. Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of May (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities. Will say elsewhere what level this is. Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch boom! Ww
SP:SPX
by without_worries
20
Will Bitcoin bonce off the Power Law trend this time?After each halving event in the past bitcoin price tend to come back to the blue "buy zone". Currently bitcoin price toched the 15 year long Power Law trend (green line). It is the perfect line to bounce off. However, if we analyze the previous 3 halving events we will see that the blue zone was hit each time after halving. In the current cycle this means that the price may come in below 50k zone, but not for very long time. The lower wave band is corrently at about 40k level. Let's see the outcome.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by leoum
3
QQQ Thursday Gap Up ReversalShort-term & small sample, but an interesting pattern nonetheless... If we look back at similar events to Thursday's action, they've all been short-term tops in the market. We're looking at: (1) Gap up open on a Thursday; (2) Bearish reversal closing near the lows of the day; (3) Increased Volume from the prior day(s); (4) Preceded by a good run in the market. I think it's worth noting, although I'm not sure the market dynamic behind it, that these recent short-term tops have all occurred on a Thursday. So seeing similar-type action this past Thursday is sending up a short-term cautionary signal, especially after such a strong runup over the last few weeks. I want to emphasize 'short-term' though, because the long-term trend is still very much in tact. It may also be worth noting the lack of breadth under the hood as an additional short-term cautionary sign, although there are certain areas and groups that have been participating... it's been very much a stock picker's type of environment.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by apaqu
ORDI: effect big candle📊 Token analysis Ordinal done in the style of price cushion, by Ahmadarz analysis team 🚦In the main structure, in the daily time frame, we are in a trading range between the prices of $31 and $95. When I reached this support floor and formed a short-term trading range between the prices of $31.5 and $51, and its failure from the price of $43, a good pump was done. The price went up to $65. In the continuation of the price trend, since we have reached the middle of this trading range, there is a possibility of returning to the breaking point, i.e. the same price of $42, and if the downtrend line drawn upwards is broken with a codenel with a large body, we can see the price ceiling of $90. But now I see the downward trend Upcoming support: 🔺 The most important support is at the price floor of $33 The next support at the break of the last trend is $42 Upcoming resistances: 🔻 The closest resistance: $2.231 as the first target The most important resistance is: $2.40 💲How to get the trade : We can enter in the bearish candle created below the trend line. ⬅️Entry: $62.34 🔴Stop: $68.67 🟢Targets: $43 - $55.15 - $57.25 Capital management should be followed because Ahmadarz analytical team is not responsible for your profit and loss. ⚠️
Short
by ahmadarz
4
NU Breaking ConsolidationAnalysis: NU Holdings Ltd. Has returned 45% YTD and currently maintains an average volume of 22.29M . Price has been stuck in consolidation since early May. Price has had four (4) attempted breaks of structure since. Watch for breaks or advances in "Support Resistance Structures (1) & (2)". Watch for a clear break "Support/Resistance D" before consideration. "Time Axis 2" has been broken - look for higher break in price on "Time Axis 3". Please Leave a Comment ArticaAnalytica
NYSE:NULong
by ArticaAnalytica
A Desperate Long Position My First Idea here, I would like to think of it more like an intuition vs. technical analysis. MNY has made some patterns I noticed especially like around 24th-25th of a month, entering a consolidation area for 2-3 weeks (1.88$-2.00$). waiting for an up trend breakout to exit my position. Facts on MNY: NASDAQ Listed Positive performance & earnings Low daily Trading Volume except in the seasonal pattern Slow mover but volatile if it moves suddenly Boring to wait for if its sleeping on volume 1 analyst is expecting it jump to 7$ by end of year , another expects 4$ somewhere in 2025. A well made Recent Research: (Credit goes to Milo Bussell Associate Analyst, Consumer and Media) www.edisongroup.com Please share your thoughts further, again this is just an idea not a TA. MNY Thanks! (Pun intended)
NASDAQ:MNYLong
by Xx_DarkSoul56_xX
3
Comparison of BTC VS SPX Dailey Cycle low timing Here you can see a daily cycle low count on BTC starting from the lowest low in the 4year cycle, the November 2022 Low area. If we start our BTC DCL count from this anchor point we can see the resulting periods of correlation and de-correlation between the price of the SPX and that of BTC. Notice in more recent cycles how the BTC and SPX cycles are deiplaying an offset relationship by about 25 odd days. This can be seen as BTC is marking lows at times in the SPX is in a higher region of price. Or BTC consolidation while SPX marking lows, only for BTC to lag the SPX and follow along to mark the half cycle lows.
SP:SPXLong
by RankoSkanko69
The most Bullish Bitcoin signal since 2017 and 2012On the above weekly chart of Bitcoin price action a signal not seen since March 2017 and previously November 2012 has printed. No one on the social media circles is talking about. You heard it here first, remember that ;-) What is it? Weekly hidden bullish divergence. It is the same signal that allowed us to long the S&P 500 from 3750 and the Nasdaq 100 from 11k while the internet was calling for Armageddon. (Both ideas below). Think of a regular bullish divergence as an oil tanker. They confirm and price action reverses trend providing a clean pivot in the market. Now think of the hidden bullish divergence as a speedboat. They come out of nowhere, completely unexpected by the market catching everyone off guard. Only two previous hidden bullish divergencies have printed on the weekly chart in the past. March 2017, 1900% rally followed and November 2012, 10000% rally followed Some of you may be familiar with the deterministic forecast from Steve of CCU and notice the ratio between the returns of the first two bull markets as 5.3. Thus leading us to determine the next market top is at $75k after a 360% rally. However that is not going to happen because of changes to the M2 supply as I’ve discussed elsewhere. The theory does not account for those changes, and as result invalidates an otherwise solid forecast. The market top is further up, have revealed this target elsewhere! Ww S&P 500 to 6k from 3750 Nasdaq 100 long from 11k
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by without_worries
24
Bitcoin Pre-Halving bull run from Jan 2023Hello Everyone, I want to share this amazing thesis that I found on the Bitcoin chart. Everything is on the chart but I want to clear some insights about this. First of all, all Bitcoin bullish cycles have two sub-cycles: pre and post-halving sub-cycles. I believe the bottom is NOT in yet but we are close to that and it will be clear before Dec 2022 and the Pre-halving phase will begin from Jan 2023. Let's take a closer look at previous bullish cycles. The first halving event occurred on the 28th of November, 2012. Bitcoin had a pre-halving bull run from the bottom which took 378 days and it pumped more than 522%. The second halving event occurred on the 9th of July, 2016. Bitcoin had the same pre-halving bull run from the bottom which took 539 days and it pumped more than 300%. The third halving event occurred on the 11th of May, 2020. Bitcoin had almost the same pre-halving phase which took 518 days and it pumped more than 200%. During this phase, the black swan event happened which was COVID-19 crash and I ignored this because it was unexpected. According to previous bull cycles, we can conclude Bitcoin will find the bottom in Q4 2022 and from there the pre-halving phase will begin and it lasts until fourth halving on 03 May 2024 which will be almost 478-540 days from the bottom. The bottom will be somewhere between $10k and $16k, No one knows the exact price but you can start DCAing below $16k (if we get there). The post-halving phase will take Bitcoin to new territory and I think it will be somewhere between $100k and $200k in 2025. Be patient and have your own plan. Trade safe. If you found this info useful, please share it with your friends, and don't forget to hit the boost button and follow me ;) Thanks.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ir0nhand
2
BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings.The graph shows the main trend of bitcoin. Logarithmic chart. Timeframe 1 month. The main liquidity zone. The graph is linear (without “market noise”, i.e., without squeezes of minima and maxima for hamsters). The channel and all values are set according to it. Everything is extremely accurate (potentially accurate). All the same parameters, but candlestick chart. Pay attention to the timing of the halving and the evolution of the cycle . There are super resets before halvings, which are completely invisible on a large timeframe on a line chart after a short time. Pay attention to 17( 518 ) + 18( 547 ) and the treasured 1400. I am sure that in 1 year everyone will be very interested in the cryptocurrency and bitcoin market, in 2-3 years ( 123 ) up to 6 0% of market participants will no longer be interested (they will have completely different problems). In 6 years there will be no more than 6 0%. Secondary trend decline in the super cycle (the main, long-term trend), on a line chart, 1 month timeframe: 1) -81% 2) -75% 3) -67% (as of publication). #1 Super reset -44% after 1 cycle , already in the alignment zone (sideways, accumulation) the before BTC halving. Candlestick chart. Timeframe 1 month. All the same and the same “fear”, but on a line chart #2 Super reset -67 % (13). 2 cycle . Border closes, start of COD619 carnival, (hematria) 1.8 months before bitcoin halving and subsequent growth over +880 % (not from lows). From “fear hamsters” lows over + 1440 % (not liquid). Candlestick chart. Same on a line chart. Greed begets poverty. Focus on that part of the price chart of the cycle. The chart doesn't matter, what matters is what I can "silently" convey to you with it. It's important to understand what's important to you, what you want to guess, I'm not interested in that at all. It can't be a secret what's already been. It is simply reality. You don't have to understand the last paragraph. If you don't understand it, skip it and focus on the text above, the logical TA (probability game).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SpartaBTC
20