Economic Cycles
BTC bull/bear cycle and next top predictionIt is well known that BTC follows a clear 4-year (give or take) cycle, dictated by the halvings.
We can split those 4 years into three 16-month periods:
16 months pre-halving, moderate bullish period
16 months post-halving, strong bullish period
16 months bearish period
Given this cycle and these periods, the next BTC top should be somewhere around mid 2025, and I think we'll top out somewhere in the 200k to 250k range.
Buyback Watch for Swing TradingEarnings are over so buybacks are back in the mix. The market is likely to continue to be volatile and choppy until all the ETF investors who want to sell have done so. Then, the uptrend is likely to resume because there are not enough barometers warning of a recession AND we just had one 3 years ago.
Buybacks tend to drive price up, so they are a good swing and momentum trading strategy. Notice how neatly the support from previous highs halted the run down. Reversal points at strong support levels are one area to watch for buyback patterns.
KLCI.Who/what made Malaysia's economic will boom again? 8/8/24KLCI / FBMKLCI index will hit reach ATH toward 2200 by 2026? What and who "make it" happen? Robberly it's the A.I, Chips sector. And what Make Malaysia as a "hub" of A.I Data Centre? Compare to STI (Singapore) and SET (Thailand) Chart. FBMKLCI chart almost identical! = It probably meant not because who was PM of Malaysia during 80s "making" Malaysia's GDP grow higher! It's "Cycle Trend/ circumstances?!!". AND. The "Cycle Trend/ Circumstances" was "created" by its millions of citizens! as "weather!" not just because 1 person! P/s. AND Most politicians are "good opportunist" they know how to "grab" the "cycle/Trend"!.
Short trade
Sellside Trade
Pair: EUR/USD
Date: Mon, 5th Aug 24
Time: 5:00 pm
Session: NY Session M
Entry: 1.09500
Profit Level: 1.08301 (1.09%)
Stop Level: 1.09678 (0.16%)
RR: 6.74
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis on Silver (XAGUSD) Looking to BuyShort Term Elliott Wave View in Silver (XAGUSD) suggests that pullback to 28.58 low ended a wave (A). The metal turned higher again in wave (B) ended at 31.75 high. The market resuming lower from wave (B) high breaking below 28.58 low to rule a larger correction. It means, Silver is developing a wave (C) of ((4)) as a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (B), wave ((i)) ended at 28.65 and wave ((ii)) ended at 29.45. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 27.40, and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 28.19. Wave ((v)) ended at 27.29 which completed wave 1. Pullback in wave 2 ended at 29.22 high and the metal resumed lower in wave 3.
Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 27.93 and wave ((ii)) ended at 28.67. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 26.49, and pullback in wave ((iv)) built a triangle structure ended at 27.16. Currently, silver is trading in wave ((v)) of 3. We are calling for one more low to end the cycle. The ideal place to end this wave comes in 26.32 – 26.06 area, where buyers should appear to start wave 4 pullback. Near term, as far as pivot at 29.22 high stays intact, expect pullback as wave 4 to fail in 3, 7 or 11 swing for further downside in wave 5 of (C).
Long trade
Mon 5th Aug 24
Buyside
proof read. Tokyo to NY Session
4.45 pm
Entry 104.300
Profit level 111.756 (7.15%)
Stop level 103.378 (0.88%)
RR 8.09
Potential Short position BTCI've been tracking Bitcoin's recent movements, and I believe we're seeing a classic Wyckoff distribution pattern play out.
Key Levels and Phases
Phase A (Buying Climax - BC):
We saw a significant buying climax, where the price reached a peak in the upper $70,000s.
An Automatic Reaction (AR) followed, pulling back to around the mid $60,000s.
Phase B:
During this phase, the price oscillated between the mid $60,000s and the upper $70,000s, forming a series of Secondary Tests (ST) and minor Signs of Weakness (SOW).
Notice the increased volatility and volume spikes, typical in this phase.
Phase C:
We might be in Phase C, where a potential Last Point of Supply (LPSY) is forming.
The recent rally failed to break the resistance in the low $70,000s, indicating potential weakness.
Diminishing Volume:
The recent rally to the low $70,000s saw diminishing volume, hinting at a lack of buying interest.
Bearish Signals
Major SOW?
The price broke below the minor SOW level (mid $50,000s) and bounced back, possibly confirming a major SOW.
RSI Divergence:
The RSI is showing bearish divergence with multiple bear signals since March.
Trading Strategy
Short Position:
If the price fails to break above the low $70,000s again and shows bearish signs, consider entering a short position.
Target the previous support levels around the mid $60,000s and mid $50,000s.
Stop Loss:
Place your stop loss just above the low $70,000s to manage risk.
Remember, always do your own research and trade responsibly. Happy trading!
Long trade
Buyside
Tokyo to NY Session AM
00:00 Hrs
Entry: 140.4526
Profit level: 181.4110 (29.16%)
Stop level: 135.5312 (3.50%)
RR: 8.22
UJ shortLooking for a move back to fill gap. Strength seems to be currently USD short direction, plus the existence of a decent looking top here.
Long trade Fri 4th Aug 24
1.00 pm
Toyko to LND Session PM
Buyside trade
Entry 0.84922
Profit level 0.87089 (2.55%)
Stop level 0.84866 (0.07%)
RR 38.7
(15min TF) (Day TF)
Long trade
Observation - Price on Sat 3rd Aug 24
The price failed to break higher than 61778.3, indicating a lack of buying interest. Reviewing the Fear and Greed Index for Bitcoin on Saturday, 3rd August, also highlighted a moderate level of fear, suggesting cautious sentiment among investors. Since then, Bitcoin's resilience has subsided with a downturn that has been disruptive to the asset class. I observed that the price shifted to the downside by 25.10%, falling to the mapped-out demand zone of 49035.7 to 48670.5.
Reason for Buyside trade.?
Observing that the price had reached a prime zone, a buyside trade was placed aiming for the target level TP2 with a profit of £60,500.0 (12.41%).
Topglove's cycle analysis. 7/August/24TOPGLOV may just completed wave (II)(Red) as its price near multi Confluence zone of :- 1) POC of Volume Profile (Red Horizontal) 2) Lower Support of Parallel Channel (blue). P/s what make health care stock sector grow? e.g Glove as most stocks crash!? "Sector Rotation"?! Anyway Hartalega just announced its "better" than its previous Quarterly report.
Tenaga. Malaysian. Grab electrical bill >32.97% discount!TNB, Tenaga with its cycle now trending down till year end its share price probably could down till 9.80 +/-. which is the POC of volume Profile and parallel trendline support and demand zone.
QQQ Completed a Cycle Expecting to Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in QQQ suggests that the ETF has completed a bearish sequence from 7.11.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.11.2024 high, wave (A) ended at 455.63 low. Rally in wave (B) ended at 475.61 with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 467.94 and wave B ended at 452.31. Wave C higher ended at 475.61 which completed wave (B) in higher degree.
Then, QQQ turned lower in wave (C) with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 444.47 and wave 2 ended at 450.49. Wave 3 lower ended at 426.59 and wave 4 ended at 436.17. Final leg wave 5 ended at 420.00 which completed wave (C) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 447.07 high. Now, we are expecting to correct the cycle as wave 2 before resuming to the update in wave 3. The view is valid as price action stays above 420.00 low.
BTC Arb TradingA simple and pretty visualization of long and short leveraged ETFs and Bitcoin Index. Comments welcome on ways to interpret the data into executing winning trades. Cheers!
THE GREATEST LONG // BTCUSD (August 2024)Fiat is flowing fluidly into TOTAL after the after-math of this weekend's price action
2740 was the key level in which the dive to sub-2k level on Ethereum happened
BTC/ETH dominance will stagger as alt-coins receive liquidity
It's a little late for alt-coin summer, but at least we have alt-coin autumn now
It is beyond contrarian to open a long position when everyone else is shaking in fear, but it's now or never if you want to catch the ride up to 100k BTC. You heard it here first.
Best in all,
dysonring2050
AUD ShortMay not work, already entered in the lower level, we shall see, fighting what seems like risk on flows
UJ Long If it comes back to daily close, seeing potential for a long fill, despite the heavy YEN flows, some relief can still push back dramatically when the move is this extended. Entry at daily close
SPX. When can we catch the "falling knife?! 6/August/24SP500 index could be starting "deep retracement'" by end of Sept at least. What do we think the low cycle number 10 for the SPX's price would be by end of Sept by example? P/S There are few reasons for THE FED to cut cate. Not just due to high inflation, 1 possibility reason most likely would be "to rescue" the market! What make FED "Need to" "rescue market"?! Even before Sept?! Unless "stock crash"!
Bearish MarketDXY can move to 103.5 level
and GBP/USD can move to 1.27 level
then EUR/USD must have a bearish market . of course we have a FVG in 15 min leg ,
we can BUY for Short Term.
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)).
Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
