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Economic Cycles

Bitcoin: Interconnectedness of Defining CyclesJust a followup analysis on scalable structure from "Natural Patterns & Fractal Geometry" ed idea. Additional Regularities: 2018 Downtrend Phase Fib Resonation: Fibonacci ratios are not just mathematical abstractions; they manifest in Bitcoin's market structure due to human behavior and market psychology. 2020 Uptrend Phase Fib Resonation: Unconventional use of Fibonacci ratios highlights areas where price has shown significant reactions. These levels act as dynamic support and resistance zones, underscoring the fractal and cyclical nature of Bitcoin's price movements. 2021 - Late 2022 Crash Metrics More detailed breakdown of emerging randomness: The repetitive alignment of market cycles with Fibonacci levels underscores Bitcoin's tendency to oscillate between predictable extremes, offering insights for timing entries and exits. Distinct cycles are clearly visible, separated by major tops (e.g., ATH in 2013, 2017, and 2021) and bottoms (e.g., the 84.12%, 72.26%, and 77.57% corrections). Each cycle adheres to Fibonacci retracement and extension levels, demonstrating a self-similar structure . Price expansions align with Fibonacci extensions (e.g., 1.618 and beyond), showing that Bitcoin’s growth phases are not random but rather guided by harmonic principles. The ascending channels mapped through Fibonacci ratios capture both the bullish and corrective phases, showcasing the market's bounded yet fractal rhythm . The percentage swings (+2484.44%, +12804.20%, +1692.21%, +600.07%) highlight the explosive nature of Bitcoin during expansion phases, followed by steep corrections. These as well align with Fibonacci proportions, providing a blueprint for market rhythm.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
18
Beyond Basic Candlestick Pattern AnalysisLearning to Recognize Who Is Controlling the Stock Price There is a plethora of training on Candlestick Pattern Analysis and interpretation, and yet this remains one of the most problematic areas for Technical Traders who want to trade at the expert level. Once the basics of Japanese Candlestick Patterns are understood, it is time to move up to the next tier of analysis. That is being able to recognize not only where a pattern is, but also who forms that pattern, why they are capable of creating that pattern, what automated orders generate that pattern, and which Market Participant Groups react or chase that pattern. Nowadays it has become critical to include Volume with Candlestick Analysis, because this provides the basis for recognizing which Market Participant Group created that candle pattern. Candlestick Pattern Analysis at the expert level involves more than just one to three candles. Instead it includes a larger group of candles in the near term. This is what I call "Relational Analysis." This is especially useful for Swing Traders, Momentum Traders, Velocity Traders, Swing Options Traders, and Day Traders using Swing Style Intraday action. The NYSE:RAMP chart is an excellent example of a Candlestick Pattern for Swing Style Trading. See where High Frequency Traders (HFTs) took control of price, and gapped the stock down for one day on extreme volume. Selling did not continue the following two days, and Volume was above the Moving Average, but much lower than the High Frequency Traders' spiking Volume pattern. This was the first accumulation level for this stock. Dark Pools started buying the stock even though High Frequency Traders were selling, since they typically miss this initial buy mode of the giant Institutions. High Frequency Traders typically create the final gap down to the low which, if it reverses quickly, indicates a Buy Zone area for the Dark Pools. These patterns are what I call "Shifts of Sentiment." They happen in bottom formations where buying is generally dominated by the Largest Institutions' quiet accumulation. The next phase will be when Professional Traders and then High Frequency Traders discover the Dark Pool accumulation. The bottom is not complete, but it shifts sideways if more Dark Pools decide to buy.
NYSE:RAMPEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
POLKADOT- BUY HIGH, SELL HIGHERIn the midst of chaos, I've decided to increase my position in Polkadot, as I've been holding since $5.82. The structure continues to show bullish signals, and we’re still in a bull market. Moreover, the Christmas and New Year rally hasn’t even started yet. For traders feeling anxious right now, it's better to step away from the screen and avoid making impulsive decisions. For those focused on knowledge and strategy, there’s no better moment to consider opening a long position—fully aware of the possibility that your stop-loss might be hit. Trade Management: Entry: $7 or market price Stop-loss: $6.31 (keeping the previous position intact) Remember to control your emotions and avoid overtrading. Maintaining liquidity is crucial—don’t put all your capital at risk. Protect your psychology and trust your skills. Don’t let the market shake your confidence in what you know works. I’m sticking to my plan, as mentioned in my previous idea. Nothing changes if you follow your plan. May God bless you all. Jay
Long
by Jaytradermb
Sentiment Cycle Indicator Performance (PAID)Performance Analysis of the Sentiment Cycle Indicator 1. Trend Identification: • The indicator has effectively highlighted bullish and bearish sentiment zones, as shown by the green (bullish) and red (bearish) background shading. This visual clarity makes it easy for traders to identify the prevailing market sentiment at a glance. 2. Buy and Sell Signals: • The Buy signals are well-timed, capturing upward price movements, especially during key reversal zones. • The Sell signals occur consistently in areas where bearish momentum starts to dominate, allowing traders to exit or short positions effectively. 3. Key Trades Observed: • Buy Example: Around the recent low near $100,000, the indicator generated a buy signal right before a significant upward move, aligning well with the trend shift. • Sell Example: Near $105,000, the indicator provided a sell signal ahead of a downward move, protecting traders from holding during the drop. 4. Market Choppiness Handling: • Even during sideways or choppy markets, the indicator avoids excessive false signals due to its clear sentiment zone shading, helping traders stay on the right side of the market. Why This Indicator Stands Out 1. Simplifies Complex Market Trends: • By combining sentiment analysis with buy/sell signals, the indicator provides traders with a comprehensive toolkit for decision-making. 2. Dynamic Market Adaptation: • The indicator adapts to real-time price movements, ensuring timely and accurate signals without lagging. 3. Perfect for Scalping and Swing Trading: • Traders can use the sentiment zones for scalping in smaller timeframes and for swing trading over longer horizons.
Short
by TradeTechanalysis
1
Spot Long on MyroWhile alts and Solana memes have been taking a beating, there's still great opportunity to trade these. I find sticking with spot is the safest and if you look at something like Myro, which essentially moves in tandem with WIF, it's a relatively easy trade at moments like this when it's been bouncing at support. I've re-entered at .083 and intend to hold this until around .24 as long as Myro can move above the avwap at .16 - also depending on how things are looking there is potential to return to its ATH, but I think any massive movements in the market will come when FTX repayments of 13 billion usd hit in 60 days, another reason why now is a fantastic entry point for spot. FOMC meeting on rate cute is today at 14:00 EST and markets as expected took a dip yesterday and should rally at the news of another cut of .25 - this is where I expect Myro to follow the market up and begin testing key resistance points I've charted. Of course this time frame could take longer but I expect by end of January Myro to be back around .20
Long
by mgreyd
1
TESLA: Fractal Metrics Fractal Cyclicality Cycle I The chart displays fractal cyclicality leading up to a major breakout. It emphasizes the progression of swing percentages and cyclic patterns, potentially identifying the foundational structure for a larger trend. The use of layered channels adds depth to the analysis, showing both minor and major fractal levels. Cycle II The upward and downward swings in this cycle demonstrate increased volatility and amplitude compared to the initial cycle. This suggests a stronger market reaction and more pronounced trends within the fractal structure. The price action aligns closely with the channel boundaries, indicating the preservation of the fractal framework while showcasing expansion within the structure. The swings are visually more aggressive, with higher peaks and deeper corrections, highlighting the market's larger movements leading up to the breakout. The cyclical patterns and overlapping fractal waves are more intricate, suggesting a maturing market phase with more participants and liquidity. Cycle III All three cycles exhibit a fractal nature with nested waves, maintaining consistency in cyclic progression through identifiable peaks and troughs. The price movement continues to respect the broader channel boundaries, reinforcing the fractal geometry's framework. Similar to the first two cycles, the third cycle shows distinct swings with well-defined percentage movements, suggesting a rhythmic market behavior. Like the earlier cycles, the third cycle builds on the previous fractal structure, with larger amplitudes and deeper corrections, indicating scaling behavior. Phi remain prominent and rooted across all cycles, suggesting persistent harmonic proportions. Evolutionary Growth in the Third Cycle The swings in the third cycle appear to be significantly larger than those in the first two, reflecting an increase in market volatility and participation. The third cycle seems to be emerging over a more extended period, indicating maturation in the fractal evolution. The deeper corrections, such as the -75.44% retracement, highlight stronger mean reversion tendencies before significant expansions.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by fract
BTC Market Cycle: Is Distribution Signaling a Coming Correction?BTC Market Cycle: Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution 🚀 Timeframe: Weekly Analysis📉 BTC/USDT is following a classic Wyckoff Market Cycle, transitioning through three distinct phases 🎯 1️⃣ Accumulation Phase (2018–2020): Smart money accumulated BTC at low prices in a tight range after the previous bear market. Low volatility and bearish sentiment dominated this period. 2️⃣ Manipulation Phase (2022–2023): A choppy sideways market with false breakouts and shakeouts, designed to confuse retail traders and consolidate more BTC into institutional hands. 3️⃣ Distribution Phase (2024–2025): A euphoric uptrend, where institutions are likely offloading positions into the enthusiasm of retail buyers. This phase often marks the cycle peak. Trading Strategy 💡 - For Long-Term Investors : Consider scaling out positions during this distribution phase. Prepare to re-enter during the next accumulation cycle. - For Swing Traders : Look for reversal signals in the distribution zone. A confirmed breakdown could lead to significant retracement toward previous accumulation zones. Risk Management 🚨 - Be cautious of euphoria-driven rallies. - Watch volume and price action for signs of weakness (e.g., declining momentum, sudden sell-offs). Disclaimer⚡ This is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management. 🔄Hope this analysis finds you well! BTC/USDT is showcasing a textbook Wyckoff Market Cycle with clear phases of Accumulation, Manipulation, and now Distribution. Are we nearing the peak, or could this rally surprise us further? Let me know your thoughts! 🔍
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
NU Holdings OutlookNU price has left the high volatility range and dropped by over 11% today. The chart suggests that the first Elliott Wave A-B-C correction structure might be near completion with this five-wave downward move. Prices are reaching quite attractive levels again, prompting me to consider re-establishing a position, as the first clear correction pattern appears to be finishied soon. There's a possibility that the entire correction could be complete. However, my main scenario anticipates that the chart will develop into a more complex correction pattern over the next few months, not finishing with this simple A-B-C structure. There's still a chance that if the correction lasts longer, these prices could represent the lowest we'll see. My primary target remains the 50% Fibonacci level at $9.25.
NYSE:NU
by PF_Analysis
Marking the end of Bull rallyCouple months ago, I published my US30 Elliott Wave analysis stating the start of upward move which we saw in the past months. Today, I am publishing the Elliott Wave breakdown of the upward move we have seen in past months which was anticipated in previous idea. Coming to the point, it seems the rally is about to end and the correction is about to start. I am anticipating this correction to be somewhat big according to my Weekly wave count shown in previous chart, but lets see how things go.
EIGHTCAP:US30Short
by syedhamza2135
1
My McClellan Oscillator Graph - Up or Down in the Markets?This is a huge factor to watch, something to consider, Santa Claus Rally expected, or not? I have had many financial analysts for decades always point out this chart when the markets seem toppy or indecisive. The Dow has closed 9 days in a row, first time since the 70s, that's quite interesting, let's watch to see if the theory behind this indicator proves we are in for a rally as I expect. The markets always tend to go higher more than one might think.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Trance-Man
Extrapolating previous cycle price action to predict the futureUsing the Indicator: 4-Year Cycles Cycle Analysis: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 Changes: ATH increased from $1,160 to $19,676 (16.96x increase) Gain percentage dropped from 52,287.39% to 12,804.2% Loss percentage slightly improved from 86.9% to 83.11% Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 Changes: ATH increased from $19,676 to $68,979 (3.51x increase) Gain percentage dramatically dropped from 12,804.2% to 1,976.94% Loss percentage improved from 83.11% to 75.93% Projection for Cycle 4: Based on the observed pattern of diminishing returns and the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin's growth: Projected ATH: $242,000 to $275,000 (Calculated by applying the observed ATH increase factors) Projected Gain: Approximately 800-1200% (Continuing the trend of diminishing percentage gains) Projected Loss: Around 70-75% (Following the gradual improvement in loss mitigation) Each cycle shows a pattern of: Reduced percentage gains Slightly improved loss recovery Continued exponential growth in absolute ATH price ATH Calculation: Cycle 1 to Cycle 2 growth multiplier: $1,160 → $19,676 = 16.96x Cycle 2 to Cycle 3 growth multiplier: $19,676 → $68,979 = 3.51x Observed Growth Multiplier Trend: Cycle 1 to 2: 16.96x Cycle 2 to 3: 3.51x Projection Approach: Lower Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 3.51 (conservative) Lower target: $68,979 × 3.51 = $242,000 Upper Bound Calculation: Previous ATH: $68,979 Multiplier: 4.0 (slightly more optimistic) Upper target: $68,979 × 4.0 = $275,91 Gain Percentage Calculation: Cycle 1: 52,287.39% Cycle 2: 12,804.2% Cycle 3: 1,976.94% Observed Decline Pattern: Cycle 1 to 2: ~75% reduction in gain percentage Cycle 2 to 3: ~84% reduction in gain percentage Projected Gain Range: Lower bound: 600-800% Upper bound: 1000-1200% Loss Percentage Trend: Cycle 1: 86.9% Cycle 2: 83.11% Cycle 3: 75.93% Projected Loss: 70-75% (continuing the gradual improvement) Methodology Notes: Used geometric progression with decreasing multipliers Considered logarithmic growth pattern Accounted for diminishing returns observed in previous cycles Disclaimer: Ultimately, these projections are mathematical extrapolations based on historical data and should not be considered definitive predictions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and unpredictable. This projection is based on historical patterns and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult financial professionals before making investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by jpkxyz