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Economic Cycles

Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: USDJPY is Correcting higherShort Term Elliott Wave USDJPY suggests that the pair is developing a bearish sequence from 07.03.2024 high. The decline made a double correction Elliott Wave structure. Down from 07.03.2024 high, wave A ended at 155.36 low. Rally in wave B ended at 157.86 high with internal subdivision as zig zag structure. Then, the pair resuming lower completing wave C at 151.93 low which ended wave (W) in higher degree. USDJPY turned higher in wave (X) connector ending at 155.22 high. Down from wave (X), the pair continued forming the double correction structure. Wave A of (Y) ended at 148.50 low and wave B bounce ended at 150.89 high. Final leg lower as wave C ended at 141.66 which completed wave (Y) and ((W)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((X)) correction. Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave (A) that ended at 148.22 high. Now, the pair is developing wave (B) pullback. This retracement could end in 145.43 – 144.08 area to then continue higher in wave (C) of ((X)). Once wave ((X)) structure is finished, we are expecting the pair to continue lower in wave ((Y)).
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Long trade The Wyckoff method has been used as a narrative for this buyside trade. Trending Inside the Range in the Wyckoff Method The Wyckoff method is a technical analysis approach focusing on market trends, phases, and the behavior of large institutional investors. It involves phases of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown to predict market movements and identify trading opportunities. Trending inside the range occurs during the accumulation and distribution phases. In the accumulation phase, large investors build positions within a price range, absorbing supply without significantly moving prices. This phase is characterized by horizontal price movements with defined support and resistance levels. The current trade capitalizes on movements within this range, seeking to exploit the predictable behavior of prices before a breakout. Tue 5th Aug 24 9:00 AM LND to NY Session AM Buyside Entry 1Hr TF Entry: 0.64800 Profit Level: 0.66692 (2.92%) Stop Level: 0.64693 (0.17%) RR: 17.68 Target: Price low 0.66688 3rd July 24
Long
by davidjulien369
$MARA - New Swing Long Trade Opportunity!NASDAQ:MARA - Hello everyone! I'm excited to share this with you! Over the past year, whenever the RSI has touched 30 or very close to it on the daily chart (marked with white vertical lines), it has always rallied by 100% or even more. There was only one instance where it failed to reach 100% and instead rallied by 41%, which is still a decent performance. This is absolutely incredible! So, should we be worried and sell, or is it time to buy more? The choice is yours!
NASDAQ:MARALong
by cumacevik
S&P Bearish case - Multi year shows risk of top / market crash?Please see chart notes I am wrong if we get a blow off top back up and over the top of channel but if it falls back then this long term chart works. Its tough to get out at the top unless you are hedged now Market crashes typically come in late aug / Sep / Oct so just be careful out there We have not dropped back recently to test the Weekly 200 EMA for a long time, even longer for a big set back. May be relatively better to go to Gold as it showing strength. If you are aggressive move into an inverse hedge fund like XXX - Inverse Nasdaq Tech etc Other Index confirmation: DJIA also has a top against channel / Japan looks in trouble / India looks like end of banana and China has broken down already. Sentiment indicators compared with times just before crashes are mostly higher signaling worst case now than they were before prior crashes I want to be long but need to be very cautious now due to late Aug / Sep / Oct potential crash with all this JPYUSD carry trade unwinding it could reveal further risk off / have a deeper issue
SP:SPXShort
by William_Playfair
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: SPX Resumed the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave View in SPX suggests the trend should continue higher within the sequence started from March 2023 low as the part of daily sequence. It favors upside in wave ((5)) while dips remain above 5124.76 low. Since March 2024 high of (3), it starts a correction as wave (4) ending in April at 4953.56 low and bounced again. The market resumed the rally building an impulse as wave (5) ended at 5669.67 high and also wave ((3)) in higher degree. SPX begins a large retracement in July 16 high. Down from wave ((3)), the index dropped developing a double correction structure. First leg lower, built a zig zag correction to complete a wave (W) at 5390.95 low. Then, the market did a flat structure higher as wave (X) ended at 5566.16 high. The index resumed to the downside forming another zig zag as wave (Y) of ((4)). The cycle was completed at 5119.26 low and also wave ((4)). Actually, SPX has continued higher trading in wave (1) of ((5)). The wave 1 of (1) ended at 5330.64 high and wave 2 of (1) finished at 5195.54 low. The wave 3 of (1) started and we are expecting more upside. While price action stays above 5119.26 low, we are calling for more upside to continue the rally as wave ((5)).
SP:SPX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
2
A Journey Through Halving Events, Fear & Greed DynamicsMastering Bitcoin’s Market Cycles: A Journey Through Halving Events, Fear & Greed Dynamics, and FOMO Surges Hello everyone, Over the years, I’ve dedicated countless hours to studying Bitcoin’s price movements across multiple timeframes, focusing on the interplay between supply and demand, greed and fear, and the ever-pivotal halving cycles. From my earliest analysis in April 2019, where I laid out the foundational trendlines and the importance of the halving setup, to the more recent explorations of Bitcoin’s FOMO Cycles, I’ve sought to decode the complex mechanisms driving this revolutionary asset. The Foundation: April 2019 Analysis In April 2019, I introduced a chart that I considered to be the ultimate guide for understanding Bitcoin’s long-term trendlines, grounded in historical price action, key resistance levels, and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) as a measure of market sentiment. This chart underscored the importance of major resistance levels at $6,000, $8,500, and $10,000 USD—critical zones that needed to be "eaten" before the next halving to validate the bullish thesis. You can view the original chart below this description and also in the comment section. . This chart successfully predicted the major price movements leading up to the 2020 halving, proving the strength of using historical resistance levels and market sentiment to forecast Bitcoin’s behavior. At the time, I emphasized that approximately 80% of all Bitcoin had already been mined, with a significant portion of that supply likely lost forever. This supply scarcity, combined with the halving cycle reducing the inflow of new coins, set the stage for future price appreciation. My analysis hinged on the idea that supply and demand dynamics, coupled with investor psychology, drive cyclical market behavior—an idea that continues to hold true today. Revisiting the Halving Cycles: The Key to Predicting Future Moves Fast forward to July 2022, and I revisited the concept of Bitcoin’s halving cycles with an updated analysis that sought to replicate the forecasting success of the past. This time, I focused on how the halving cycle—where block rewards for mining are cut in half every four years—plays a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price formation. Each halving event historically leads to a significant supply shock, which, combined with increasing demand, often triggers major bull markets. The Emergence of FOMO Cycles: Understanding Sentiment-Driven Surges Building on these concepts, I introduced the idea of FOMO Cycles—phases within Bitcoin’s broader halving cycle characterized by explosive, fear-driven price surges. These FOMO Cycles represent the moments when Bitcoin transitions from periods of consolidation or decline into rapid growth, driven by a market-wide fear of missing out on the next big rally. Here’s how these cycles typically unfold: Pre-Halving Accumulation: In the months leading up to a halving, smart money begins accumulating Bitcoin, anticipating the reduced supply. This phase often goes unnoticed by the broader market but sets the groundwork for the upcoming FOMO Cycle. Halving and Media Hype: As the halving approaches, media coverage intensifies, drawing more retail investors into the market. This increased attention marks the beginning of the FOMO Cycle, as more investors rush to buy Bitcoin before prices skyrocket. Post-Halving Surge: Following the halving, the reduced supply, combined with increasing demand, often leads to an exponential price increase. This is the peak of the FOMO Cycle, where prices can reach new all-time highs in a relatively short period. Correction and Consolidation: After the initial surge, the market typically experiences a correction as early investors take profits. Understanding this phase is crucial for managing risk and locking in gains before the market corrects. Tools and Strategies for Navigating Bitcoin’s Cycles To help you make the most of these market cycles, I’ve refined several key tools and strategies: Fear & Greed Index: This indicator provides a real-time measure of market sentiment, helping to identify when fear or greed is dominating the market. Extreme fear often signals a buying opportunity, while extreme greed can indicate that a correction is near. On-Chain Analysis: By analyzing on-chain metrics such as active addresses, transaction volume, and miner outflows, you can gain insights into the behavior of different market participants and anticipate potential shifts in market dynamics. RSI Divergence: Watching for divergences between price action and the RSI can help identify moments when the market is overbought or oversold. Historical Context and Future Implications By looking back at the April 2019 analysis and comparing it with more recent developments, we can see how these cycles repeat over time, driven by the same underlying forces of supply and demand, amplified by investor psychology. As we approach the next halving in April 2024, understanding these patterns could provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s future price movements. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, mastering these cycles is essential for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile market. By combining technical analysis with a deep understanding of market psychology, you can position yourself to capitalize on the next big move while managing your risk effectively. Final Thoughts and Historical Successes Looking back at the historical context and the successes of my previous predictions, it’s clear that understanding Bitcoin’s market cycles—especially in the context of halving events and FOMO surges—can provide valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors. By combining these technical insights with an awareness of macroeconomic factors, you can position yourself to capitalize on the next big move in the market. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, mastering these cycles is essential for navigating Bitcoin’s volatile market. And as always, while this analysis is a powerful tool, remember to stay informed, stay patient, and enjoy the journey. Disclaimer: This analysis is an attempt to predict future price movements based on historical data and technical indicators. It is not financial advice. Please do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Chachain
BNC:BLXLong
by Anoinvest
2
BTC Analysis and ProjectionLooking at the bigger picture, after testing the $49,000 level, there are strong indications that Bitcoin might push for a new all-time high. Recently, Bitcoin shook off stop losses from the previous weekly low and gained significant volume in the imbalance zone, signaling a potential bullish move. Key Levels and Scenarios: 1. Bullish Scenario: We are currently watching the bullish level at $65,359. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this level and gain momentum, the next target is $84,000. This scenario aligns with the expectation of an altseason in 2024, where altcoins might see significant growth driven by Bitcoin's upward momentum. 2. Bearish Scenario: However, if Bitcoin fails to sustain the bullish momentum and drops below the recent low, we could see a decline to the $43,000-$34,000 range. This would likely delay the anticipated altseason until the early quarters of 2025. In summary, the current setup suggests a potential for significant gains if Bitcoin holds above key levels. However, a failure to do so might trigger a deeper correction and push back the altseason timeline. For now, the focus remains on how Bitcoin performs around these crucial levels.
by Goldfinch_song
Fed Watch Tool Target Rates on the US 10 YOn this graph, we see the current priced in Interest Rates of the FED Watch Tool in compare to the US 10 Year Treasuries. We can clearly identify by how much the market is frontrunning and at what pace the market believes the Interest Rates will decline. The Orange Box below is the average Interest Rate of ~2.75% and the expected Mid/Long Term Interest Rate, until something brakes and the next Liquidity Cycle begins. I personnaly believe that we will see an even faster pace in the future, hence the Earnings showing more uncertainty in the guidance of Corporate Ameria. Additionally the job openings decline, more people are unemployed, the Yen carry trade is not yet unwinded, consumer credit and auto loans are on verge of a credit shock. Conclusion: hence TLT is pretty much the exact counterpart of the US10Y, I decided to go long TLT with leverage.
TVC:US10YShort
by derMatzeImNetz
Elliott Wave Intraday Analysis: FTSE should Continue HigherShort Term Elliott Wave in FTSE suggests that the index has completed a bearish sequence from 5.15.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 5.15.2024 high, wave A ended at 8106.79 low. Rally in wave B ended at 8405.24 high with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 8279.75 and wave ((b)) ended at 8056.01. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 8405.24 which completed wave B in higher degree. Then, FTSE turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 8158.03 low and wave ((ii)) ended slighly up at 8174.71 high. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 7972.35 and wave ((iv)) ended at 8024.83 high. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 7915.94 low which completed wave C and (4) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave (5). Near term, we are calling an impulse structure as wave ((i)) from wave (4) low. This wave ((i)) should be completed very soon and we are expecting a retracement in 3, 7 or 11 swings as wave ((ii)) before resuming the rally. The view is valid as price action remains above 7915.94 low.
FTSE:UKX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
SMH held its ground above key support levelToday was an important day for semi conductors. In order to solidify a bullish pivot it needed to remain above a key support level. SMH held above key support lack luster moves across the market indicated indecision and caution amongst traders about the future being bullish or bearish This could mark the sign of a turn around to the upside longer term considering the recent rally and today's modest moves, this could be the distribution phase of the rally cycle which would mark a small pullback in the coming days
NASDAQ:SMH
by ratchet-mint
$BABA volatility pricing skew on CALL side before earningsThe high vertical CALL pricing skew on the options chain shows that the CALL options for the September expiration are already much more expensive than the PUT options at the same expected move distance. This suggests that market participants are pricing in an upward move. Let's take a closer look at the probability curve formed by the options chain. I'm very curious to see whether the 8/8 to +1/8 quadrant line will hold the price for BABA, or if it will continue to surge into the Upper Extreme quadrant, heading towards +4/8 until $100. If everything stays the same, something like this could be an interesting lottery ticket for me. I'm thinking about an OTM call butterfly with a short expiration before earnings. I have to admit, I’m not a big fan of risking on this red/black roulette type of play, but if things stay as they are, I might consider combining it with a 40 or 68DTE credit put ratio below and the call butterfly above before earnings. But we'll see how things look on the day before earnings!
NYSE:BABA
by TanukiTrade
Timeline of Bitcoin cycles and where we are nowThis chart is also available as a static image: INTRO The study presented here divides Bitcoin cycles into separate phases, then measures the duration of each cycle, as well as of each individual phase and some of their combinations. It is then demonstrated when a possible top of the current cycle is likely to happen. A possible price of the cycle top is also shown, but the focus here is more on guessing the WHEN rather than the price. OVERVIEW Each cycle is divided into following phases: Previous ATH to bottom. Bottom to halving. Halving to ATH breakout. ATH breakout to top. On the chart blue rectangles show Bitcoin cycles. Blue vertical lines mark a start or an end of a cycle. Red lines correspond to cycle bottoms. Yellow lines are halvings. Green lines are ATH breakouts. Dashed lines are used for possible dates of future events. Four rows of date ranges at the bottom of the chart measure the time. The first row measures the length of each cycle phase. The second and third rows show how much time it took to get from bottom to ATH breakout and from bottom to top respectively. The forth row shows full cycle lengths. Red and green arrows measure the corrections and returns of each cycle. The chart also shows Fibonacci retracements for each cycle. COMPARING THE CYCLES The first cycle was very short and not like the others. The second and third cycles were longer lasting 49 and 47 months respectively. They were also very similar to each other with each phase lasting approximately the same amount of time. It took around a year to reach the bottom, then 17-18 months until the halving, after that 9 and 7 months to make a new ATH, and finally 8 and 11 months to reach the top. It took 27 and 24 months respectively from bottom to new ATH, 17 and 18 months respectively from halving to top, and it took 35 months exactly in both cycles from bottom to top. The current cycle is so far very similar to the previous two. 12 months to reach the bottom, 17 months until the halving. Note that although Bitcoin's price penetrated the previous ATH multiple times since March, we don't count it as a breakout since the price failed to rally higher. TRYING TO FORECAST THE FUTURE First of all, nobody can predict the future. Bitcoin cycles won't last forever and this cycle can pretty much be the last one and anything unexpected can happen any time. It's always important to be ready for the worst outcome and manage your risks accordingly. But let's assume that the remaining part of this cycle will also be similar to the past cycles, so can we forecast when the cycle is going to end? If we look at the chart, we can see that all previous cycles ended in November-December. Taking into consideration all other data we've discussed, the top can be projected to occur on November-December 2025. November gives us a bit better numbers closer to the data of the two previous cycles: 48 months total cycle duration, 36 months from the bottom to top and 19 months from the halving to top. We also have one known date in the future: the next halving, which is going to occur somewhere around March-April 2028. We can also forecast the approximate date of the next cycle bottom (if we are somehow lucky enough to have another cycle!) by placing it on November 2026 one year after the current cycle and 16 months before the next halving. Now, what about the dashed green line on the chart, the date when we're are finally going to have the ATH breakout? In the previous cycle we had 7 months between the halving and ATH breakout and also 24 months from the bottom to ATH breakout. If we take that data, it would give us November this year. But in the second cycle it took a bit longer: 27 months to reach the breakout (from the bottom). That would give us February 2025. So the breakout is likely to happen somewhere between November and February. WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE? As I said above, this idea is more focused on timing the top rather than the price so I'll keep this short. In the first two cycles, Bitcoin topped out at around 2.36 fib level, while in the previous cycle it failed to reach 2.36 and stopped at 1.618. If it reaches 1.618 this cycle, that would be around 174K. May also be lower, but any higher level is very unlikely. CONCLUSION Bitcoin jumped from around 25K to almost 74K in a short period of time and many people became very greedy and impatient. After that it got stuck in a sideways movement for months. Everyone are frustrated and can't wait for the bull run to finally continue. Some are starting to doubt and afraid that the top may be in. But the data shows that everything is going according to schedule. Bitcoin is stuck because it was too early to have a cycle top. More patience is needed. Thank you for reading and I hope you will find this information useful!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by function_mechanic
1