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Economic Cycles

RBOB Gasoline - COT & Fundamental Backed Long Trade SetupDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is not a recommendation to take a trade. This is for purely educational purposes only. RBOB (Gasoline) is "Set Up" for Longs. This does not mean I am longing this blindly right now. The tools that I am using to formulate this trade idea are not timing tools. We use technical entry techniques to time our entry. Lets get to it. Commercials are extremely long this market. The last time they were this long was in 2010, which just so happened to preclude a massive bull move in RBOB. When Commercials are at a significant extreme, we want to pay attention. Small speculators are very short. In fact, they are more short than they have been in the last 3 years. The public is generally wrong, and we want to fade whatever they are doing. Advisor sentiment is very bearish, which is actually bullish. If the advisors are telling all their clients to Sell gasoline, who is left to sell? For weeks, OI has been decreasing while Commercials have added to their long positioning. If the public and large speculators are not interested in this market, while the commercials are getting heavily long, this is bullish and indicates this market is ready for a bullish move. Cyclically, we get a bit of a mixed bag. The decennial pattern is supportive of some upside soon, and the annual cycle is supportive of a major low in September.
NYMEX:RBU2024
by Tradius_Trades
DJI 8/26~30 LONG Forecast 1D Chart / LONG Technical Grounds -NV > +250M -TV Strong buy -LinReg Pearson <0.95 -Pivots HL still Long-Green -LinReg > 90 degrees (uptrend) -Reverse Head & Shoulders Formation -NV shows a declination trend of negative bars -Price crossed up SMA100, SMA20 & LinReg Mid Line -Price crossed up index resistance on past Aug 15th -Price level far from cyclic ending point of Sep 13th -POLITICAL FACTOR: Elections coming / +Media Influence -Fed announcing interest rate cuts (as political influence in elections / investors mindset) SHIBUSDT / LONG ....
DJ:DJILong
by SolutionsforallNet
Short trade Australia, NZ Dollars Near Major Resistance as US Yields Decline The Australian and New Zealand dollars are approaching key resistance levels, driven by declining U.S. yields. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has adopted a notably hawkish stance on the economic outlook. Consequently, markets are currently pricing with only a 16% chance of a rate cut in September, with a 50% probability of a quarter-point reduction in November. We are therefore tracking to confirm if Sellers push for lower gains indicating the Demand zone 1.08980 to 1.08100. As a result, we anticipate a rebound from the strong support level and reversal to previous higher highs and the price level of 1.10208. Short trade idea...? Date & Time: Thursday, 22nd August 2024, 5:00 AM Session: London to New York Session (AM) Entry Price: 1.09399 Profit Target: 1.09112 Stop Loss: 1.09531 Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.17
Short
by davidjulien369
DOLLAR down BITCOIN upThe DOLLAR is the worlds #1 trade and reserve currency #GOLD is the KING of Anti Fiat #Bitcoin is attempting to replace GOLD in the mindshare of people (to a certain extent it has, considering from where it started from just a brief 15 years ago) So observing the major trends of the #DXY is crucial to determine how to place your bets and how much risk you should be taking on. *** The caveat being that the DXY is just measuring the dollar mainly against the Euro and various other major Fiats that become more worthless over the years ... so these decades long gyrations don't actual show you how poorly these #fiat currencies store your value.**** I believe #Crypto is on the cusp of some spectacular returns The #BTC.d will soon reverse You will see #Ethereum and the # altcoins gain some real strength once grayscale has sold down much of it's ETH holdings. The 4 year cycle is back on track ... after running too soon in the cycle. Historically Q4 of a Bitcoin halving year is the start of some explosive up moves. We have been waiting 4 years for this... Do you want to wait another 4 years for 2028 to experience the next Crypto meltup?
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BallaJi
BTCUSD | CORRECTION HAS NOT FINISHED YETInstead of having simple ABC correction in 4th wave, Bitcoin is moving to complex one - WXY, We have a Zig-Zag to 50% correction level for 3rd wave. Probable future scenarios: - one more Zig-Zag up to ~65k or even slightly more, and after it final Zig-Zag down to previous levels: ~52k-50k; - final Zig-Zag from current levels down to the same levels ~52k-49k or slightly deeper to previous wave support levels ~45k-42k. After that, Bitcoin will go to final 5th wave of bull cycle. Hold your cash ready for one more deep dive.
by Lucique_
SHIBU BULLISH - SHORT TERM JUMPBased on the technical signals, we're expecting a 5-15% bullish run that coincides with our Ultra Bull signal. These signals are designed to identify institutional support in the near term. Overall outlook is somewhat bearish, but this could be an interesting swing trade. Based on the trading chart for SHIB/USD on the 1-hour timeframe from Coinbase, here is a technical analysis: Trend Overview: - The chart shows a general downward trend for SHIB/USD over the past several months, with the price consistently declining from late April through mid-August. - The presence of multiple "ULTRA BEAR" labels indicates a strong bearish sentiment during this period, as the price continued to drop with little to no significant bullish reversals. - There are a few instances where "ULTRA BULL" signals appeared, but they were short-lived and did not significantly change the overall bearish trend. Technical Indicators: - All three moving averages (EMA, SMA, VWMA) are showing values around 0.00001414, 0.00001413, and 0.00001413 respectively. These averages suggest that SHIB/USD has been consolidating at these levels recently, but the overall trend has remained bearish. - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)**: - The MACD value is extremely low at 0.00000002, which might indicate a lack of momentum in either direction. The MACD histogram also suggests minimal bullish or bearish momentum currently, aligning with the sideways movement seen in the last part of the chart. Backtesting and Performance Summary: - The backtesting section shows a net profit of $63,957.81 USD (6.40%) with a profit factor of 1.99. This indicates that while the strategy was profitable, it involved significant risk as evidenced by a maximum drawdown of $37,610.82 USD (3.62%). - The average trade is worth $1,827.37 USD, with an average trade return of 1.83%. This suggests that the trading strategy applied has been more consistent with small, but positive gains. Key Observations: - **Bearish Dominance**: The consistent appearance of "ULTRA BEAR" labels reinforces the dominant bearish trend. The few "ULTRA BULL" signals indicate minor, short-term recoveries but are not enough to reverse the overall trend. - **Consolidation Phase**: In the latter part of the chart, there seems to be a phase of consolidation where the price is moving sideways, with the price struggling to move above the resistance levels. - **Potential Reversal**: The last "ULTRA BULL" signal around mid-August suggests a potential, though tentative, shift towards a bullish phase. However, this would require further confirmation by breaking key resistance levels and seeing sustained upward movement. Conclusion: The overall sentiment for SHIB/USD remains bearish, with occasional short-term bullish signals that have not yet resulted in a trend reversal. Traders should be cautious of the current consolidation phase, and any significant movement above the resistance levels would be needed to consider a bullish trend. For now, the prevailing bearish sentiment suggests that downward pressure may continue unless a strong reversal signal emerges.
COINBASE:SHIBUSDLong
by UltraAlgo
BTC Bears in Disbelief (BULL PROPAGANDA)BTC has failed to close below 58k on the weekly for 3 straight weeks. It will be 4 straight weeks if this weekly candle closes green. There are signs this was the bottom: 1. Huge volume spike with lots of liquidations on the Aug 5th Japan carry trade unwind dump 2. Equities V shaped recovery from the Aug 5th dump 3. BTC barely touching 50k, bouncing hard from the dump creating a huge weekly wick, and staying above the 1 year MA (52 week MA) 4. I saw countless people on X calling for the wick to be filled, more pain ahead because of that huge volume spike on the dump, and lots of calls for 30k to 40k BTC 5. I also listened to a few twitter spaces with people saying there was definitely more pain or chop ahead 6. Then I saw lots of people shorting on the timeline and in the discords I'm in 7. DXY dumping while foreign currencies strengthen 8. Lastly the fear and greed index had not been this low since Q4 2022 (the bottom) Markets are not easy. The market does not let a lot of people, in this case shorts wanting 40k or 30k BTC, be right. This low volume and low volatility all of August is to bore people out of getting positioned. We could see the wick get filled but that does not always HAVE to happen. Max pain is speculators (open interest) not positioning before the pump on this recent consolidation and then fomoing later on when price is above 70k adding more fuel to the fire. This will leave people who are sidelined left to buy in higher, causing price to go up, and those who are short to get liquidated or forced to buy back, which also causes price to go up. More fuel. Anyone continuing to short this pump would also leave them to be juiced as price grinds higher from them closing their positions. Global liquidity has risen higher and this is the halving/ election year. Recession talk and moving average death cross yap is all FUD from midcurving morons. Those who buy, hold, and DCA will continue to be rewarded and have been rewarded. (Look at those who recently got their BTC back from Mt. Gox) The top is not in I expect that to come Q4 2025 perhaps. We will see. I could be wrong or I could be right. No one can predict the future. Thanks for reading this latest installment bull post after BTC has gone up a small amount.
Long
by bhx10
CRV/USDT Trading ScenarioOver the past 820 days, CRV has been in a steady accumulation phase, as indicated by volume profile analysis. In early August of this year, the asset reached a new all-time low at $0.1794. This decline led to a significant increase in buying volumes, signaling strong investor interest and active accumulation of positions. The volume profile analysis reveals a concentration of trading volumes in this price zone, which is characteristic of an accumulation phase. The continuous price decline, coupled with rising buying volumes, suggests that the asset may be preparing for potential future growth. Considering the current accumulation phase and the increasing interest from buyers, it can be inferred that the asset is on the verge of potential growth.
by Rick_SimpleSwap
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