Economic Cycles
SHIB USDT - FRACTAL Shows Bullish Impulse NextMany altcoins are currently in Accumulation Phase and/or approaching great buy zones. This is the part of the cycle where there seems to be very little action, and the price moves in a range and sideways.
It's safe to say that we can expect sideways/range trading until BTC moves the market. In a previous update, I mentioned how it is crucial to watch not only BTC, but BTC.D and the TOTAL3 market for the next move:
The good news, is that this makes for an excellent time to BUY back into any market. The lowest risk option here would require some patience though, because the accumulation cycle often lasts month. Luckily - we are already a month in of mostly range trading.
Here's a look at another altcoin that's possible worth buying - RNDR, which is now approaching a great zone to buy-back :
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BINANCE:SHIBUSDT
DOGS LEVELSFrom a technical analyst's perspective, the chart for DOGE/USDT shows a clear downward trend moving within a descending channel 📉. Let’s break down the key elements:
1. Descending Channel: The price is moving within a well-defined descending channel, indicated by the black and red lines. This suggests continuous selling pressure and lower highs and lows. 📉
2. Support and Resistance Zones:
- Green Zones: These represent resistance levels, where the price may face selling pressure and could potentially drop. 💥
- Red Zones: These indicate support levels, where buyers might step in, and the price could bounce upwards. 🛡️
3. Current Price: The current price, around 0.0010409, appears to have recently bounced off the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a short-term upward move. 📈
4. Extended Channel: This note suggests that the descending channel may continue to influence price action, with the possibility of further downward movement unless a breakout occurs. If the price breaks out either upward or downward, it could signal a trend reversal. 🔄
📊 In summary, the chart reflects a strong bearish trend, but there is potential for short-term corrections as the price interacts with the support or resistance zones. Traders typically watch for channel breakouts to confirm a continuation or reversal.
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BTC/USD bowl. Breakthrough 64-72. Cyclicality. Nasdaq - BTC.Logarithm. Completion time 1 week. Instead of updating an old idea regarding the Nasdaq Index and BTS on pump cup formation published on 06/17/2023, I decided to implement the idea on a live chart.
Comparative analysis. Fractal. Lag. Bitcoin and Nasdaq
17 06 2023
I have applied the cup percentages as well as the cup with handle if formation occurs (high probability). Although the cycle high targets and timing are the same as what I showed in 2022 during the Bitcoin accumulation phase.
So, for clarity with the last cycle and its highs in 2021.
BTC/USD Secondary trend cycles and halvings . 1 07 2022
BTC/USD Halving 518 When will be the cycle price low and high.
02.09.2023
BTC/USD Main trend (3 years) Channels Triangle
09 2023
At the moment, the price is above the “demons of Solomon” zone, that is 72,000. Zone 64-72 – resistance of the large bowl (last cycle highs 64-69). Let's follow the fractal similarity of 2015-2017. There is a high probability that a rollback will occur slightly higher, and a long-term bullish formation will be formed (trend direction, large time frame) — “Bowl with handle”. Or straight to the psychological level of 100?).
Pay attention to interest rates and price levels in the past and now.
1️⃣ Let me remind you that in April the halving is closer to the 20th. Most likely this will happen on the day "18" . Do you think that bitCocaine will cost 84,018 closer to this time?) What will happen to this zone?
2️⃣ Psychological PR level - the zone for Bitcoin is $100,013.
3️⃣ Everything else probably looks unreal for most market participants, but what is shown now is real, just as it was a very long time ago.
Adhere to these simple rules:
1) Understand and exploit the cyclical nature of the market.
2) Buy low, sell high. And not vice versa like most).
3) Take profits in parts on the hype (now) in a growing trend or protect with a stop loss.
4) Have an understanding of the relationship between the liquidity (capitalization, roughly speaking) of a trading instrument and its volatility and potential.
5) If you trade locally. The crowd is shouting: “cryptocurrency is a scam” - buy it. “Crypto hype” - sell it.
6) Do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority, this is all “taken into account in the price movement schedule.”
7) Always have at least 20-30% of stablecoins in reserve. If, for example, in a developing trend there is a correction to quickly remove longs (futures, margin with large shoulders, in spot - stop loss) by a significant%, and some of your stops do not work due to price slippage, then a “cash airbag” will calm and warm you in such an unpleasant moment).
Unveiling Crypto Market Insights - Long term chartsGM kings and queens,
in our previous post , we zoomed out to 13 years of Bitcoin trading at Bitstamp. In this post, we’ll shed light on the benefits of long-term charts and how and when to use them.
Introduction
The daily bar chart is the most commonly used tool for forecasting and trading. However, for a comprehensive trend analysis, it's important to consider how the daily price action aligns with the broader long-term trend. To do this, longer-term charts must be employed, as John J. Murphy explains in his book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets.
The importance of a longer-range perspective
Murphy highlights that long-range price charts offer a perspective on market trends that daily charts alone can't provide. These charts reveal broader movements, helping traders understand the overall direction of the market.
Long-term trends dispute randomness
One striking feature of long-term charts, as Murphy points out, is the clear definition of trends that can last for years. This challenges the idea of market randomness and underscores the value of long-term trend analysis.
From long-term to short-term charts
Murphy recommends analyzing charts in order: starting with the long-term and progressively zooming in. This approach ensures that your short-term analysis aligns with the larger market trends, reducing the need for constant revision.
Long-term charts: forecasting, not trading
Long-term charts, while valuable for identifying major trends and price objectives, are not designed for precise trading decisions. As Murphy emphasizes, for timing entry and exit points, it's more appropriate to rely on daily and intraday charts.
Do you consider a longer-range perspective an important part of your analysis?
Which longer-term charts do you prefer: weekly, monthly, or something else?
How does the Bitcoin chart look to you on the weekly and monthly timeframes?
Let us know in the comments!
Reference:
Murphy, John J. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications. New York Institute of Finance, 1999.
Short trade
Trade Details:
Pair: EUR/GBP
Trade Type: Sellside
Session: NY Session AM
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Time Frame: 1-Hour Time Frame (1Ht TF)
Entry Level: 0.84326
Profit Level: 0.84000 (a 0.39% decrease)
Stop Level: 0.84364 (a 0.05% increase)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 8.58
This trade idea reflects a sellside position on EUR/GBP during the NY Session AM on the 3rd of September 2024.
ATOM - Ideal BUY BACK Zone ApproachingThe greatest thing about bullish impulses / parabolic upwards price action, is when you know you can ride the tide because you ALREADY have a position.
However, this means having the courage to buy when the prices are low and there is no immediate sign of a turnaround to the upside. I'll say again; profits are made in bullish markets but secured during bearish markets.
This will, of course, largely depend on the direction of BTC over the next few weeks. So don't miss that important update HERE:
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BINANCE:ATOMUSDT
Short trade
Trade Details:
Date: 2nd September 2024
Pair: GBP/USD
Time: 11:00 PM during the Tokyo Session PM
Trade Type: Sellside trade
Entry Level: 1.31543
Profit Level: 1.31998 (a 0.66%)
Stop Level: 1.31341 (a 0.11% )
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 6.22
Thought Process:
On the morning of 3rd September 2024, at 6:30 AM GMT, we observed a bias towards the downside. This assessment was influenced by a previous buyside trade, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The stop loss of the prior trade suggests that the market may be experiencing downward pressure, leading to a sellside trade.
The high Risk-Reward Ratio (RR) of 6.22 indicates taking on a relatively small risk compared to the potential reward, which aligns with my observation of a strong downside bias. This setup suggests confidence and continuation of the downward movement. Further to add the previous stop executed in the buyside trade, with an RR of 3.32, also supports the current sellside narrative showing a pattern of lower highs at this time.
Long trade
Trade Details
Date & Time:
Entry: Sunday, 4th August 2024 at 9:00 PM
During the transition from the Tokyo to London session in the PM).
Trade Type: Buyside (long position).
Entry Price: 0.61649
Profit Level (Take Profit): 0.65517 (6.27%)
Stop Level (Stop Loss): 0.60484 (1.89%)
Risk-Reward (RR): 3.33
BTC - Hourly Bullish With Order Flow Structure Shifting...Hey traders,
As one can see, the OFA script has fired a circle pattern.
This makes us build the thesis to look for long positions in lower timeframes.
Even of the 1h timeframe, as shown in the chart, the structure has shifted to bullish.
We can personally conclude that until proven otherwise, the hourly should continue higher.
The aggregation of flows via the OFA script helps us visualize the dynamic waves forming to get more precise triggers in these lower timeframes.
Remember the two key main features of the OFA script:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Long trade
Trade Details:
Date: Tuesday, 3rd September 2024
Time: 7:00 AM during the NY Session AM
Time Frame: 15-Minute Time Frame (
Trade Type: Buyside trade idea
Entry Level: 2496.002
Profit Level: 2504.435 (a 0.34%)
Stop Level: 2493.547 (a 0.10%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.44
Trade Idea:
This setup reflects a buyside trade on a 15-minute time frame during the NY Session AM
EURUSD ShortThere is not much volatility today due to the U.S. holiday. However, I have seen that so far the FX:EURUSD has not made a new high, I take the opportunity to enter short towards the low zone.
Risk: 0.50%.
Trade Management: Take partial profits, for example at the low of the Asian session and then move the SL in BE.
RR: 3:81
The KING OF BULLS waits to be called to start the BULL RALLYDespite being volatile, BULL SIGNALS don't appear just for show but with the same false breakout rocket signal candlestick.
False breakout rocket signal means BITCOIN is making a pretense downtrend of 5 candlesticks then the BULL GAMES begin.
This is now accompanied by an algorithm BULL TRIANGLE
The added curve means we may face a dip or remain within the price range as it has been confirmed by the false breakout downtrend or could the KING OF BULLS change the SHOW?
My KRISS-CROSS MA's with VOLUME has unveiled a little more wait before the PRIMETIME launch.
Log trade
Pair XAUUSD
Entry 15min TF
NY Session Am
Fri 30th Aug 24
1.50 pm
Buyside trade
Entry 2499.144
Profit level 2514.570 (0.62%)
Stop level 2495.477 (0.15%)
RR 4.21
Observation - Sat, 31st Aug 2024
Currently, on the 15-minute time frame, we observe a bullish breaker that has played out within a balanced price range according to smart money concepts. This setup is confirmed by the lower wick of the red candle and the upward trajectory of price action since leaving the price point of 2498.320, signalling that the price is likely to leave this region to seek out other imbalances, particularly liquidity.
Since we are in a buy-side model, the price will aim to balance the previous sell-side price action. This is highlighted by the blue zones representing demand levels and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). In the buy-side model, the price is expected to be attracted to these FVG zones, marked in blue, to balance the buy-side/sell-side imbalance.
As a result, we anticipate that the price will continue on an upward trajectory to complete this cycle. The price is expected to seek out and balance the following levels: 2504.003, 2506.553, 2511.581, and 2514.590. The final target for this cycle is the liquidity high at the 2514.590 price level, which will complete the range.
Ps The yellow lines indicate a small price range highlighted by a PD Array, clearly showing the bottom, middle, and top levels. If you look closely, you'll notice the candle bodies creeping upward—a telltale sign of upward movement at this time.