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Economic Cycles

Post-Holiday BTC Rallies: A Historical PerspectiveIdea: Over the past six years, Bitcoin has exhibited a fascinating pattern: post-Christmas rallies. Let’s dive into the data and analyze what this could mean for the market this time around. Historical Context: In 5 out of the last 6 years, Bitcoin has seen significant gains shortly after the holiday season, with price increases ranging from 44% to an astonishing 272%. These rallies have been a consistent part of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior, making them an exciting opportunity for traders and investors. Key Observations: 2017/18: BTC rallied over 272%, marking the peak of an explosive bull market. 2019/20: A solid 44% gain during the recovery phase from the bear market bottom. 2020/21: Post-pandemic bull run fueled a 122% surge as BTC climbed to new highs. 2021/22: A rally of 90%, driven by retail and institutional adoption. 2022/23: Another impressive rally of 72% as the market recovered from a bear cycle. The only exception? 2018, the first phase of a brutal bear market, when market-wide sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish. This highlights a crucial insight: rallies are far less likely during early bear phases. What About This Year? 📊 Cyclicality is Key: Bitcoin’s price action has always been heavily influenced by cycles. With the market in a recovery phase following the 2022 lows, we could be on the verge of another post-holiday rally. 📈 Factors to Watch: Macro Sentiment: With inflation stabilizing and global markets recovering, Bitcoin is regaining strength. Institutional Interest: Continued interest in BTC ETFs and large-scale adoption could fuel upward momentum. Cyclical Patterns: The historical consistency of these rallies cannot be ignored. Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Bullish Case: If history repeats itself, we could see Bitcoin post significant gains over the next few months, potentially targeting new highs in 2025 as part of the broader bull cycle. 2️⃣ Bearish Case: If macroeconomic factors or unforeseen events trigger a pullback, the rally might be subdued, or Bitcoin could enter a consolidation phase. Why This Matters: Understanding these cyclical patterns can provide a major edge for traders. The post-holiday season has been a lucrative time for Bitcoin in the past, and recognizing these opportunities could make all the difference. What are your thoughts? Will Bitcoin repeat history this year? Or are we in for a surprise? Share your ideas below!
by SetKryptoBalans
The ₿itcoin Strategic Playbook: Timing Crypto Market CyclesWhy 4 Years Matters: The Confluence of Cycles Markets move in cycles: periods of growth and contraction, driven by psychology, supply/demand, and macroeconomic forces. Two major cycles intersect in the cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin Halving Cycle: A predictable event every 4 years, reducing Bitcoin's supply. Historically, prices surge in the months following. US Election Cycle: Presidential elections occur every 4 years, influencing fiscal policy, monetary policy, and investor sentiment. The strategy leverages the intersection of these cycles for precision timing. Interplay Between Cycles Historically, Bitcoin halving’s and US elections have occurred in the same year, creating a "perfect storm" for market volatility and opportunity. Example: The 2020 halving coincided with the US election, followed by a historic bull market. This alignment reflects how macroeconomic events can amplify crypto trends, rather than being purely coincidental. Fundamentals Behind the Halving Cycle What is Bitcoin Halving? Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by half, occurring approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years). This built-in scarcity impacts Bitcoin’s supply, historically leading to price increases post-halving. Why It Matters Historical Trends: 2012: Halving triggered a bull run peaking in 2013. 2016: Halving triggered the 2017 bull market. 2020: Halving led to the 2021 price surge. Each halving decreases new Bitcoin supply while demand continues to grow. Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead Bitcoin’s dominance often peaks post-halving as it leads the market rally. During the bull phase, altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead, offering higher growth potential. The Role of Elections Macroeconomic Impacts Election years bring uncertainty about future policies, creating market volatility. Policies on inflation, interest rates, and technology affect both traditional and crypto markets. Why It Aligns with the Halving The convergence of halving-induced optimism and election-driven uncertainty amplifies market movements. Example: 2020 saw the halving, COVID-19 stimulus, and election uncertainty, setting the stage for Bitcoin’s explosive growth. How the Strategy Plays Out Start at the Bottom (Accumulation): Look for signs of market capitulation (e.g., extreme fear in sentiment indices, low volume, prolonged price stagnation). Use indicators like RSI divergence to identify oversold conditions. Build positions gradually, focusing on projects with solid fundamentals. Ride the Markup Phase (Bull): Hold positions as prices rise, following the trend. Adjust exposure based on market conditions but avoid selling too early. Exit at the Top (Distribution): Watch for euphoric sentiment (e.g., excessive media coverage, speculative mania). Use tools like Fibonacci extensions, volume analysis, or the Fear & Greed Index to identify when to take profits. Survive the Markdown Phase (Bear): Avoid buying into dips during the crash. Preserve capital for the next accumulation phase. Source: Bitcoin Liquid Index: BNC:BLX
BNC:BLX
by azad.motala
Will Ethereum reach $8500 ?Ethereum (ETH) has been a focal point in the cryptocurrency world, drawing both admiration and skepticism. As Q4 unfolds, Ethereum has shown remarkable resilience, staying on its intended path despite market fluctuations. This article explores Ethereum's journey, its current standing, and the potential for it to reach the ambitious target of $8,500. Everyone criticizing Ethereum should take note: ETH is still on track and hasn't deviated from its course. In Q4, Ethereum was never expected to reach new all-time highs (ATH). Despite performing better than anticipated, ETH remains steadfast on its intended path. It exhibited a bearish pattern, forming higher lows and lower highs before stabilizing. It then marked a higher low, established a bear market high, broke through this high, retested it just before Q4, and began its upward trajectory. Here's how the forecasted ETH pattern looks—believe me, we're still on track. 📈 Ethereum's chart demonstrates a clear path forward, with key indicators suggesting sustained growth. The technical analysis points towards Ethereum reaching significant levels, with the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level being a crucial milestone. I believe $8,500 is a realistic target for Ethereum, corresponding to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. The Fibonacci extension tool is commonly used in technical analysis to predict future price movements based on past price trends. The 2.0 Fibonacci extension level suggests that the price could potentially double from its previous move. In this case, reaching $8,500 fits within the expected range of this extension level, making it a plausible target. When ETH's price reaches the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, its market cap will be approximately $625 billion, reflecting a 155% increase. If the price continues to rise and reaches the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level, the market cap would soar to around $859 billion, marking a 214% increase. These levels are calculated based on today's price. To all the Ethereum doubters out there: Keep talking while ETH keeps building. 📈 Your doubts fuel our progress. Watch and learn! 💪🔥 Ethereum's journey is far from over, and its resilience in the face of criticism only strengthens its position. As it continues to build and innovate, ETH is poised to reach new heights, potentially hitting the $8,500 mark and beyond. Ethereum's path is filled with potential, and the signs are pointing towards significant growth. With the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level serving as a realistic target, $8,500 is within reach. Whether you're an investor or a skeptic, keeping an eye on Ethereum's progress is essential, as it continues to defy expectations and carve its path in the crypto world.
CRYPTO:ETHUSDLong
by Eaglizer
1
BTC and DJI/SPY correlation with markersI am using DJI(Dow Jones Index) as proxy for SPY here to compare it against BTC price movement. The analysis of BTC correlation with indices remain same, if we interchange DJI and SPY. The Day chart displayed here is marked with vertical lines on the matching lows and highs. As you can see, BTC low or high is perfectly matching with the indices lows/high DATE wise. Sometimes, its off by 1 day earlier or later. Sometimes, when DJI is at the peak and moving sideways, it is possible that BTC can make small correction and move back to peak. Here caution must be exercised when entering BTC, as the market is yet to correct. Timing on indices lows and highs, can greatly amplify our returns on BTC price movement. Stay tuned for my next post, where I'll reveal a list of stocks poised to maximize returns when timed with BTC price movements.
Long
by JKReddyLin
DAR/USDT: Major Historical Levels Analysis| NEXT 1100% PotentialBINANCE:DAR/USDT - 1D TIMEFRAME 🎯 MARKET STRUCTURE: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✦ CURRENT PRICE: $0.13873 (-2.07%) ✦ FIRST TARGET: $0.74760 (+525%) ✦ ULTIMATE TARGET: $1.65318 (+1,100%) ✦ TIMEFRAME: Daily/Long-term TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: • Price at multi-year support level • Significant consolidation since May 2023 • Major historical resistance levels marked 2. KEY PRICE LEVELS: • Current Support: ~$0.13-0.14 • First Major Resistance: $0.74760 • Second Major Resistance: $1.65318 3. VOLUME PROFILE: • Current Volume: 29.45M • Low volume consolidation phase • Potential accumulation period STRATEGIC OUTLOOK: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ LONG-TERM POTENTIAL: • Two major upside targets identified • Historical resistance levels as targets • Significant upside potential from current levels RISK CONSIDERATIONS: • Current downtrend needs reversal confirmation • Volume increase needed for momentum • Extended consolidation possible ENTRY STRATEGY: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ • Wait for reversal confirmation • Look for volume expansion • Consider scaling in on breakout confirmations RISK DISCLOSURE: ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Trading involves substantial risk. This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. #DAR #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoTrading Tags: @TradingView Note: The significant upside targets are based on historical price levels. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.
Long
by Supachai-Taechapisit
ETH Pump to 7300$Share You said: give me analysis and descript signal use emoji content for caption use 200 word in content ChatGPT said: ChatGPT Caption 🚀 Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction Alert 📊 | Key Levels & Scenarios for 2025! 🌐 Analysis & Signal The ETH/USD chart shows critical levels of interest as Ethereum gears up for potential moves: 1️⃣ Current Resistance: 🔺 At $4,718, Ethereum faces a major resistance zone. Breaking above this level could signal bullish momentum. Traders should monitor closely for volume confirmation. 📈 2️⃣ Support Zones: 🟢 First key support: $4,035 🟢 Deeper support: $3,159 If prices retrace to these levels, strong buy opportunities may emerge. 📉 3️⃣ Bullish Scenario: 🌟 A breakout above $4,718 could pave the way to a target of $7,382, signaling significant upward momentum into mid-2025. 🚀 4️⃣ Bearish Scenario: 🔻 Failure to hold $3,159 support may see ETH retest deeper levels around $2,946, requiring caution for leveraged positions. ⚠️ Trading Signal: Buy on dip at $3,159-$3,200 zone with a target of $4,710. Take profit zones at $4,718 and $7,382. Use a tight stop-loss below $2,940 to manage risk. 💡 Pro Tip: Watch market sentiment and news catalysts for ETH's next big move!
BINANCE:ETHUSDLong
by ahmadarz
9
NASDAQ-100 NEEDS MORE CLARITY TO MOVE INDEX FORWARD!Last week, the NASDAQ-100 established key levels for both sellers and buyers. As we head into the next trading week, price rejection at either of these levels will likely determine the index's direction. While the weekly outlook remains bullish, a bearish close this week could lead to further deterioration of the index. N.B! - NAS100USD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast. - Let emotions and sentiments work for you - ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades #nas100usd #nasdaq
OANDA:NAS100USD
by BullBearMkt
Bitcoin Dominance Cycles: Key Insights: Litecoin, Cardano, PLSDiscover the repeating cycles of Bitcoin dominance and how they correlate with altcoins like Litecoin, Cardano, and Pulsechain. This analysis reveals a potential peak in Bitcoin dominance by March, likely ahead of the broader market cycle top. Could this be the key to timing the market? Dive into the chart and uncover actionable insights for the coming months. 📈 Highlights: Bitcoin dominance historical cycles Altcoin trends aligned with dominance shifts Potential implications for March 2024 🔗 Add your thoughts and share if you find this valuable! #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingView #Altcoins #Litecoin #Cardano #Pulsechain #CryptoCycles #BTCdominance"
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by Tommetje
CRYPTO SUPER CYCLE 2024-2026:BEAR TO BULL ALL WHAT YOU NEED HERE🔄 CRYPTO MARKET CYCLES: MAJOR TRANSITION - FROM BEAR TO BULL 2024-2026 Technical Market Cycle Analysis: - Current price: $346.31 - Clear transition from bear to bull market - Three distinct cycles identified: BTC, ETH, ATLS Market Phase Breakdown: 📉 Bear Market (2022-2024): - Declining trend complete - Bottom formation validated - Accumulation phase ending 📈 Bull Market (2025-2026): - BTC cycle initiating bull run - ETH cycle following - ATLS cycle completing the sequence Key Observations: - "Traders confusion" zones marked at critical transitions - Clear cycle progression: BTC → ETH → ATLS - Market structure showing higher lows forming - Volume profile supporting bullish transition ⚠️ Critical Points: - Major market cycle shift in progress - Multiple timeframe alignment - Clear cycle rotation pattern - Historical pattern repetition 🔔 Market Intelligence: - Bull market projected until end of 2026 - Three distinct crypto cycles identified - Clear market phase transitions - Institutional accumulation evident #CryptoMarketCycles #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #MarketPhases Want detailed cycle breakdown? 📊FOLLOW ME
CRYPTOCAP:OTHERSLong
by Supachai-Taechapisit
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1