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Economic Cycles

Presidential cycle. Will the crossing of RUT and SPX be repeatedDuring the Presidential Cycle is possible to verify that both indexes make peaks and troughs by the same time with similar moves. By early 2016, the indexes followed the same movement by roughly three months, after that SP500 and Russell2000 made a new high just before the elections. The prices continues to rise until the pandemic. By early March 2020, SPX crosses above RTU and it was above until a little before Biden election, thereafter RUT crossed again making a new high two months later SP500 also made a new high. By early January 2024, SPX crossed definitely RUT with SPX already making a new high. So following the history after the elections is time to RUT to cross above the SPX line as well as to reach another higher high(??)
TVC:RUT
by AFCapital21
Altseason, Microcaps & Bitcoin ATH | BTC | BTC.D | TOTAL3An important analysis as the first part of my ongoing outlook for Bitcoin, now that my target has hit. Not too long ago, I did a focus on altcoins by market cap - and the order in which they rally. This mainly speaks to the top 10 altcoins by market cap, and how they follow BT closely. However, throughout the cycle, you will see microcaps move independently, aka pump and dups, but the real parabolic increases will happen when BTC is trading bullish, especially towards the peak / just after the peak of BTC. Together with watching the Bitcoin Dominance chart, that is what we discuss in more detail today. ___________________ BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoCheck-
3
SMA Golden Ratio | CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateIn accordance with historical behavior, BTCs ATH each cycle has corresponded with the next SMA line down (following a multiplication factor of the Fibonacci sequence). As observed in CYCLE 3, BTC tag the BLUE line putting in the Technical High of this cycle meaning CYCLE 4 should tag the Yellow line if History is to repeat. The Second and ATH top of CYCLE 3 tag two lines down hitting the gray line. We can see BTC has already tag the Yellow line when BTC tage ~73K USD. Looking at CYCLE 3, BTC played with the BLUE line multiple times before settling with the top. Considering this in CYCLE 4 BTC may make another attempt at intercepting the Yellow line again depending no how parabolic BTC will be over the AUS summer period will land the price in the zones discussed in the below post. BTC in CYCLE 4 may also contact the gray line and in this scenario most tops out around the 100K region December 2024 / January 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
BUY / SELL INDICATOR| CYCLE 4 ATH UpdateAssuming we reach the Light Red line again of the BUY / SELL indicator, as per our analysis in the below post this could suggest an ATH for CYCLE 4 could land in the 117K to 157K region. It is noted while it was the second top in CYCLE 3; our purple line met / crossed but did not exceed past our orange signal line materially (see red arrow above). This marked the second and ATH of Cycle 3. We are approaching this scenario with the orange and purple line as we approach the mid 90K region (see cross and second red arrow above). Worth tracking on your radar. Again if we continued on as we have with prior cycles and reach either or both the Red Lines of the BUY / SELL indicator we would be expecting a very parabolic period ahead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Brodie
Will TSLA Break Out and Reach $382?Disclaimer: This analysis is not a buy recommendation, nor a guarantee that the price will reach the mentioned targets. The goal is to share a technical perspective to provide useful information for traders and investors. In technical analysis, there are no absolute certainties, only scenarios based on historical patterns. The weekly chart of NASDAQ:TSLA is currently in a period of indecision, which could evolve into a new uptrend, possibly forming wave 3 of an upward movement. Entering after the confirmation of this trend would follow a classic technical analysis approach, as mentioned by John Murphy in the first chapter of Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (page 4): "The primary goal of analyzing market price action through charts is to identify trends in their early stages for the purpose of trading in the direction of those trends." Target Projection for Wave 3 If the uptrend is confirmed, Murphy also describes a way to calculate the minimum target for wave 3 (chapter 13, page 345): "A minimum target for the top of wave 3 can be obtained by multiplying the length of wave 1 by 1.618 and adding that total to the bottom of wave 2." Applying this to the TSLA chart, the estimated target for wave 3 would be around $382.00 . Possible Weaker Trend? A factor that could reduce the expectation of reaching this target is also described by Murphy (chapter 13, page 346): "In a weaker trend, the maximum percentage retracement is usually 62%." The amplitude of wave 2 in TSLA shows a retracement between 66% and 78.6% , suggesting a possible weaker trend, which could decrease the probability of reaching the 1.618 target for wave 3. What do you think? Do you believe TSLA will develop an uptrend? If so, what could contribute to reaching the 1.618 target? Or does the retracement of wave 2 suggest a weaker trend? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s discuss the possible directions for TSLA’s price!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LuccasChartRoom
3
CYCLE 4 ATH Mapping DETAILED - Price Levels & Time Frame AnalysiAs we now have confirmation of the election result and following our assumption this will lead to seasonal trends of a Santa rally for stocks and bonds as we close out the year, it is now worth mapping this scenario in more detail. This post looks at CYCLE 4 and maps where this cycle All Time High (ATH) may reach and when, base on historic Indicator behavior / Price Action / Measured Moves / Fib Extensions & Historical Past Cycle Lengths. Assuming BTC continues similar cyclic behavior to prior cycles. Please explore the below post interactively (which captures all discussed items) to review measured periods and to understand where items have come from with reference to this post. Historical Cycle Lengths Measuring from the Bottom to the top of each past cycle recorded the approx. number of days * Cycle 1 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 742 Days * Cycle 2 & 3 Bottom to ATH Top = ~ 1,064 Days (For both Cycles) * Cycle 3 Bottom to 1st (Technical High - TH) Top = ~ 854 Days Plotting these on the chart (see blue dashed horizontal lines) it would be historically possible to see CYCLE 4 ATH land between December 2nd 2024 to March 24th 2025, and historically more likely between March 24th 2025 and October 20th 2024. It is noted the trend that cycles are increasing in length (particularly when measuring from ATH to ATH of previous and current cycles). The suggest time frames currently look reasonable, considering our Cycle Pivot Indictor (CPI), risk indicator, other charts we like to review for ATHs and current projected trend line channels etc. Fib Extensions Following analysis looks at the Fib Extensions from prior cycle top to current cycle bottom to estimate current cycle top. Please review the embedded post above if you are unsure how these have been calculated. * Cycle 2 ATH ($19,666) ~ reached just shy of golden pocket ratio of 2.618 ($20,382) * Cycle 3 TH ($64,895) & ATH ($69,000) ~ reached just above of golden pocket ratio of 1.618 - 1.65 ($61,327 - $65,047 respectively). If BTC hits the 1.618 golden pocket ratio extension again in Cycle 4, this would result in an ATH of $157,362. Measured moves suggest reaching these levels are possible, however they are considered the more bullish view of market possibilities at this point in time. It is noted the entire sequence drop in fib ratios from Cycle 2 to Cycle 3. While repeating this again would not make sense for this cycle, if we continue to half the difference for Cycle 4 we fall in the region of the 1.272 ($95,835) and 1.414 ($117,467) fib ratio regions. My current take on this analysis would be if BTC does exceed the 100K region, 117K may be a good target to look towards (just shy of the nice round number of 120K people could be targeting). If BTC struggles to make 100K then 95K might be the point where BTC has trouble.... Indictors * RSI - based on above, RSI on the weekly has just approached back into our uptrend region and heading into the overbought zone which it can stay for some time during the bull run period of the cycle. I would be looking to make sure BTC does not put in lower highs in the RSI as bearish divergences in this region in the past has formed in the making of Prior Cycles ATHs. Currently the RSI looks to have consolidated enough over the March - October 2024 period to make a decent run at finishing off the bull period in Cycle 4 (it has done what we wanted from an investor point of view). * Modified Osilator Wave Trend - similar analysis to the RSI is observed with historic behavior in this indicator. Note historically this indicator can run in the overbought region for some time during bull runs and establishing ATHs * MA OSCILLATOR Risk Profile Indicator - This indicator is at the right historically to suggest we are in the start of the exponential period of the bull run (after a pullback consolidation post the halving period). ATHs in cycles have been reached during 'Red Zone' price extension periods of my custom indicator. Hope the above makes sense. I intent to follow this up with some simpler analysis of other indicators.
by Brodie
Bitcoin Full InterconnectednessIn fractal analysis the randomness of price levels can be justified with the chart's historic HL coordinates. We'll use the old structure below as a base for further cycle breakdown. There are another two fib lines derived from angled trends, the fibs of which rhyme with chaos behind price action and cycle formation: Steep fibs determine timing of high volatility change: Note that they rhymed with other fib local wave measurement: 2013 ATH ⇨ Covid19 low related to pre-covid local high determines exact levels of support and resistance during the correction of pandemic fueled bullrun What also deserves attention here is that direction of fibs which acted as support around 2019 and covid19 drop produces curve which mimics the support levels of 2023 growth. So crossing below the support curve would be seen as first sign of bear market. Till that it has a time for growth justified by chart-based parabolic curve. 2 fibs derived from chart shows a decade of price & time interconnectedness which adds validity of the colored base structure. This is important for scaling the fractal and estimating the boundaries of growth distinctive to the historic cycles.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
6
Alikze »» FIL | Complementary scenario of correction wave 2🔍 Technical analysis: Complementary scenario of wave 2 of super cycle - In the analysis presented in the previous post, after reaching the range of 6.25 in a short-term ascending channel, a bearish reversal candle was encountered. - According to the structure of this correction in the form of a 5-wave zigzag, it can be a correction in the form of a 2-wave correction of the entire previous upward wave. - Therefore, if this wave ends in the green box area and meets the demand, we should wait for a return cycle to the red box area (supply area). - If this reversal can break the zone after a short correction in the form of wave 3 ascending super cycle and stabilize above the zone, we will have the scenario of wave 3 ascending super cycle, which further updates will be provided subsequently. ⚠️ In addition, if this amendment enters the range of invalid level, this scenario will be invalidated and should be reviewed and revised and the scenario of the second behavioral movement should be replaced. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Long
by alikze
3
Elliott Wave View Expects NVDA (Nvidia)To Extend HigherShort Term Elliott Wave View in NVDA (Nvidia) suggests further upside in daily bullish sequence. It is trading in bullish weekly sequence at all time high and expect continuation against August-2024 low. In 4-Hour, it placed (1) at $131.26 high and (2) correction at $100.95 low. Above there, it favors upside in (3) of impulse sequence. It placed 1 of (3) at $120.79 high, 2 at $112.78 low, 3 at $144.50 high and 4 at $132.11 low. Currently, it favors upside in 5 of (3) from 31-October low and expect one more push higher to finish it, while dips remain above $143.57 low. Above $132.11 low, it placed ((i)) of 5 at $139.99 high, ((ii)) at $135.35 low, ((iii)) at $149.95 high and ((iv)) at 143.57 low as double correction. Within ((iv)), it placed (w) at $146.26 low, (x) at $148.85 high and (y) as ((iv)) ended at $143.57 low. Above ((iv)) low, it favors pullback in (ii), while placed (i) at $146.49 high and expect continuation in ((v)), which confirm above $149.95 high. It expects ((v)) to extend towards $151.47 – $153.90 area as minimum extension to finish (3) started from 6-September low. Alternatively, if it breaks below $143.57 low, it should extend ((iv)) before resuming higher in ((v)) to finish (3). Later, it should pullback in (4) in 3, 7 or 11 swings sequence and buyers expect to enter again from extreme areas to resume daily bullish sequence. Alternatively, if it extends higher and erase the momentum divergence, then it should turn out to be nest in (3) and see more upside.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x | TNA | Long in the $30sMarkets are forward looking. When the Federal Reserve drops interest rates (perhaps in 2024?), I anticipate money to flow into the heavily beat-down small-cap market (filled with stocks most negatively impacted by high interest rates). TVC:RUT would rise rapidly, and my bet is on AMEX:TNA to follow. From a technical analysis perspective, the fact there is a gap to close for AMEX:TNA in the low $90s is enticing. It may be a bumpy or speedy rise there, but the $30's have been a personal buy zone. Target #1 = $54.00 Target #2 = $92.00
AMEX:TNALong
by WorthlessViews
TiaTIA serves as the native token of the Celestia blockchain, a pioneering modular network that seeks to innovate and redefine blockchain technology. The TIA token has multiple applications within the Celestia ecosystem, including: 1. *Data Publication:* Rollups can utilize TIA to facilitate the payment for data publications within Celestia’s blockspace. 2. **Network Security:** Users have the opportunity to stake TIA, thereby participating in the consensus process and contributing to the network's security. 3. ***Gas Token for Developers:*** Developers can use TIA as a gas token for various transactions. The architectural framework of Celestia effectively separates the consensus and execution layers of the blockchain, which is intended to create a more scalable and customizable environment for developers. COINBASE:TIAUSD BINANCE:TIABTC
COINBASE:TIAUSDLong
by Bujarra