US Dollar Index completes and correction at 96.20/30The US Dollar Index is seen to be stalling around 96.20/30 levels at this point in time. looking to resume lower again towards 94.00 levels. Please also note that the US Dollar Index has retraced just above fibonacci 0.618 levels of the recent drop between 97.00 through 95.00 levels respectively. A bearish reaction here is anticipated with bears taking back control. Looking at the larger wave structure, the US Dollar Index seems to be unfolding into an expanded flat (A)-(B)-(C) since 97.00 highs earlier and within that, Wave (C) could be in progress at this point in time. If the above counts hold to be true, we could witness prices staying below 97.00 and 97.71 levels going forward and push towards 94.00 levels at least.
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This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Dxyviews
US Dollar Index counter trend rally looks complete at 95.90?The US Dollar Index bears have taken a break now allowing a counter trend rally since recent swing lows at 95.00 levels. The pullback rally could be just complete at 95.90 levels or could be complete just around 96.00 levels going forward. Please note that prices are quickly approaching the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the recent drop between 96.96 and 95.00 levels respectively, which is not highlighted here. Looking at the larger structure, the US Dollar Index seems to be underway to potentially unfold the 3rd of 3rd wave of Wave (C), within the expanded flat (A)-(B)-(C) as labelled on the daily chart view here. Overall, bearish mode to continue until prices remain below 97.00 levels respectively.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
US Dollar Index may re-test 97.00 levels before resuming lowerThe US Dollar Index managed to test recent swing lows at 95.65 levels yesterday before pulling back. It is seen to be trading close to 96.00 levels for now and looking at the short term wave structure, it could produce a complex correction, rallying towards 97.00 levels before resuming lower again. The higher degree structure remains unchanged with resistance at 97.71 levels intact for now and the US Dollar Index looking poised to produce Wave (C) of a potential expanded flat or much lower. In either case, the index should be poised to drop below 93.65 levels at least, going forward. It remain to be seen whether the short term structure produces a surprise rally to re-test 97.00 levels or not. Overall bearish momentum prevails until prices remain below 97.71 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
US Dollar Index remains bearish against 97.71 levelsThe US Dollar Index might produce surprise intraday rally but that should be considered as opportunities to go short again. The index might have carved a lower high at 97.00 levels on Friday and ideally prices may remain below that, going forward. At the moment, it is seen to be trading around 96.00 levels and is expected to be capped below 97.00 in case of an intraday pullback rally. Looking into the higher degree wave counts, the US Dollar Index is either producing a corrective expanded flat (A)-(B)-(C) lower or a 5 wave drop. In either case, it is expected to reach at least towards 94.00 levels; and hence selling on rallies remains a favored trading strategy for now.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
US Dollar Index takes out support at 95.68 levelsThe US Dollar Index dropped to 96.65 levels yesterday while action was lacking in the currency segment. The index has now taken out initial price support at 95.65 levels and is pulling back higher, trading back higher towards 96.20 levels. The presented wave counts are indicating that the US Dollar Index could be preparing to drop lower towards 94.00 levels unfolding as an expanded flat or resume its down trend. Both the potential counts have been labelled here as (A)-(B)-(C) and alternate (A)-(B)-(C) respectively. It could be noted that in either way, the US Dollar Index remains poised to push lower towards 94.00 levels at least. Immediate price resistance is seen at 97.10 levels while support is below 95.00 levels respectively.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
DXY -- LONG ( Long-Term 6 to 36 Months ) DXY -- LONG ( Long-Term 6 to 36 Months ) . The chart explains it as per the Big boys analysis. The general consensus is that US Dollar will continue to out-perform other currencies , so my perspective is that in general the BIG BOYS are LONG USD unless that changes and conditions flip then we go short .
NOTE: we are traders not investors , we care less about anything more than 6 months
DXY -- BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE with consolidationWARNING: BEARISH PRICE DIVERGENCE
Higher Highs and higher Lows while price is consolidating
and RSI & CCI are making Lower Highs and Lower lows
Indicates reversal of DXY might be in the works, watchout . The DXY might collapse if it continues to consolidate so be on the lookout.
We still expect US Dollar Strength but it seems we are starting to run out of steam again on this particular rally.
Can we hold on and continue to rally ?
DXY -- 95.74 --Area of Resistance --Case for SHORTThe area around 95.74 has been an area of resistance for a while . This DXY seems strong enough with great economic news for US Economy, it should break it this time ? if it fails again then we go SHORT
STRICT WARNING: If and only if DXY fails to break 95.74 then we go short from here otherwise we remain LONG
DXY LONG --- Moment of truth ideaEverytime since US Dollar Index ( DXY) began its major uptrend on 15th February 2018, DXY has made :
Higher Lows followed by corresponding Higher Highs i.e
After every Higher Low its has rallied to take out the previous Higher High.
So what can we expect this time : All the fundamental factors still point US Dollar strength for a couple of more weeks ( 3 to 6 weeks ) and that implies weaker USD based currencies like EURUSD or GBPUSD , etc
NOTE: it means if this pattern is bound to repeat itself and the rally has not died then we should expect the DXY to rally and take out 97.00 Level before dropping again to a higher low . if the Trend is dead then expect DXY to drop and break the previous Higher LOW .
Assumptions for next 3 to 6 weeks, if the above pattern holds:
Stronger DXY = Long DXY = Short EURUSD , Short GBPUSD
LONGS ( BUY) :
--- DXY
--- USDJPY
--- USDCAD
--- USDCHF
SHORTS ( SELL):
--- EURUSD
--- GBPUSD
--- AUDUSD
How to make a Dollar ToastThe Dollar under the Monthly 50SMA is toast, doomed. Why? Take a look at the previous 2 major declines of the Dollar. The last one is on the chart and highlighted with a yellow ellipse. Recently price is worming around it (red ellipse). Once it is below the Monthly 50SMA again there is nothing to stop it from falling like a rock. Currently, the price is under it but watch for the monthly close. This is a long-term analysis. You still have time to position yourself accordingly.
Comments are welcome.
DXY Strength - But A Trendline In The Way?The last two weeks we have seen some bullish moves with the Dollar which broke the DXY out of a low range. However on a weekly chart, we can see it has now reached a descending trendline around the 93.00 level. Could this be a bit of a make or break move for the Dollar? With a break to the upside and push towards previous 2017 highs or a rejection and downside move to test 87.00 area.
Up Down Up DownThe Dollar Index has been stuck in this wedge pattern since the beginning of 2018. After a large fall from the 95.00 area it seems to have stalled and now deciding on whether to continue pushing down, or prove this wedge pattern is the bulls getting ready to go! Between 90.50 and 80.50 seem to be keen bounce areas for price to reverse so keep an eye for a a strong rejection / break of these levels...
DXY to continue lower from these levelsDXY is looking to continue lower from current consolidation levels. We broke head and shoulders from my recent chart and now have been in a downwards channel and broke below that as well. On USDCAD news this morning, we didn't see the dollar push up any on a nearly150 pip spike in USDCAD pair and now USDCAD is about to breach 1.24. I continue to see weakness in DXY continuing.