The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.The DXY index - measuring the fluctuation of the USD compared to six major currencies in the world - decreased from 104.8 points (8:00 p.m., July 30) to 103.94 points (8:00 p.m., July 31, Vietnamese time). Male).
Thus, there are more positive signs for the US economy. This is a factor that may cause the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to have a plan to lift monetary policy at a faster pace to ensure the US economy does not fall into recession in the future.
Accordingly, in July the number of jobs created in the US was 122,000 jobs, lower than the forecast of 147,000.
The USD and US bond yields immediately decreased.
Dxyanalysis
DXY Q3 bearish bias confirmed. Quarterly: Based on the Quarterly theory this is Q3 of this year 24, & Q2 was the manipulation of this year, which has been formed upside, So the Q3-Destribution the price will go down whole August-September 2024,
Draw on Liquidity: If I draw a FIB from the last year low to this year high the OTE Level is around 102-389 to 101.917. levels. So we will check any monthly PDA in this levels for the DOL, for the price.
Weekly: As there was 2 W-FVG- 's bellow the PQM level's so POI of price revarsal was that 2 W-FVG- 's for revarsal.
Now before the NFP Day, there are a possible W-SMT has been forming, So this confirmed me that the price is giving us a sign of revarsal. We need h4 confirmation for that to be more clear.
H4: In this H4 the price has formed a bearish H4-Breaker/Unicorn formation, which is a strong sign of revarsal, in a W level of POI, which gives me farther confirmation that in the up coming week the price will move lower.
So when all this 4 analogy
1. Quarterly Q3, Bearish analogy,
2. W-FVG- as a resistance,
3. H4-Bearish Breaker,
4. W-SMT in W-FVG-
When placed all to-gather in the chart, it gave me a confirmation that the DXY is going down up coming 2 months.
DXY- Two important levels to watchIn last week's analysis of the DXY, I noted that the index had reversed back above support, potentially indicating a false break. Additionally, the smaller time frame charts are showing an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
This idea remains valid, though with some reservations, as the right shoulder is taking too long to complete. This extended formation period is not ideal when trading a head and shoulders pattern.
The key level I'm watching is 104.50. If there is a clear break above this level, I will look for opportunities to sell USD pairs, with a focus on GBP/USD. Conversely, if the index breaks below 104, I will look to buy USD pairs, concentrating on AUD and NZD.
For now, it's best to wait and see where the break occurs. After such a long consolidation, the resulting move is likely to be strong.
US economic recovery, good news for the global economyDXY: The USD index last week maintained an accumulation status around the 104.10-104.50 range and has not broken out yet. It is likely that the market will need information from this week's FOMC to have clearer trends. In the short term, it is expected that today, DXY will continue to accumulate around this price range, so you can consider buying USD when DXY retests 104.10.
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On July 25, the US Department of Commerce released a report showing that the world's largest economy grew by 2.8% in the period from April to June 2024 (twice as high as the previous quarter).
This growth is considered solid, as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation control measures seem to be effective.
Inflation, one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s monetary policy, is showing signs of cooling. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.2% in June, down from a peak of 9.1% last year. This development is believed to be the result of the Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes over the past year.
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade Idea In this video, we analyze the DXY Dollar Index. It's clear that the DXY has been exhibiting bearish momentum recently. However, it is currently range-bound, and we need to wait for the market to reveal its direction. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of a breakout. I am leaning bearish, but this will be confirmed later today as we approach the London and NY sessions. A breakout could present a trade opportunity, as described in the video.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential.
Next Week Trading Plan (DXY analysis)we have drawn some high lows of weekly and monthly swings
after that,
we have spotted a chart pattern on 4h of DXY indicating it was head and shoulder (incomplete)
although the idea was the left shoulder of the pattern is bigger and on the right shoulder it will be shorter than the left shoulder
neckline comes at 104.510
first target will be 104.900 which is derived from the right shoulder length and
2nd target is at level of 105.300 which is the length of head
incase the first condition couldn't break through the neckline we then have to wait for price to retest the monthly and weekly support which is around 103.900 to 103.600
DXY- False break and strong reversal ahead?
Last week, the DXY broke below important horizontal support.
However, the next day, the index reversed its losses, followed by a bullish candle on Friday.
This created a strong reversal candle on our weekly chart, making us wonder if the initial break was false.
Now, the index is consolidating above this important horizontal support.
A break above the current lateral consolidation could lead to an upward acceleration.
Typically, after a false break, the asset moves in the opposite direction to test the next significant level.
For the DXY, this sets a target in the 1.0650 zone.
USD Sell-off Sinks to Multi-Month LowsUS Dollar declines eleven of the beyond 14 days- breaks multi-month uptrend / lows
USD technical guide hurdle now in view- chance for rate inflection withinside the days in advance
Resistance 104.08, ~104.40, 104.90s (key)- Support 103.49/60, 102.74/99 (key), 102.35
The US Dollar Index has plunged for eleven of the beyond 14 days (nowadays could entire 12) with a 3rd weekly decline taking DXY closer to preliminary technical guide. While the medium-time period outlook stays weighted to the downside, we're in search of viable rate inflection into fashion guide simply decrease withinside the days in advance for guidance. Battles traces drawn at the DXY short-time period technical charts into the near of the month.
Review my state-of-the-art Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-intensity breakdown of this US Dollar technical setup and more. Join stay on Monday`s at 8:30am EST.
Technical Outlook: In final month`s USD Short-time period Outlook, we mentioned that USD become drawing near resistance at multi-week highs and that, “losses be restrained to the 200-DMA IF rate is heading better in this stretch with a near above 105.seventy one had to gas the subsequent leg in rate. Note that losses underneath 104.15 may want to see matters crumble alternatively quickly- tread gently on a take a look at of this guide IF reached.” The index rallied some other 0.8% withinside the following days with DXY reversing off the 2023 excessive-week near (HWC) at 106.10 into the near of June (intraday excessive registered at 106.13).
DXY
The DXY price is currently in a bearish trend, moving within a major descending channel. However, our plan is to enter on the bullish side since the price has broken out of the descending trendline and completed an Elliott Wave 12345 pattern. We will enter after a bullish confirmation at a key level, anticipating the price to follow the Elliott Wave ABC correction pattern.
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉🔍 We can observe that DXY has been in a bearish trend recently. However, it has experienced a significant move into a key support zone. In the video, we discuss market structure, price action, and the trend. I'm expecting to see a potential reaction and an opportunity to go long if the price action unfolds as described in the video. As always, this is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📊✅
US Dollar Index Technical Forecast: USD Weekly Trade LevelsTechnical Outlook: In remaining month`s US Dollar Technical Forecast we mentioned that DXY was, “buying and selling into confluent guide this week on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement of the December rally at 103.96-104.26 – searching out a response / feasible rate inflection right here over the following few days.” The index grew to become better two-days later with USD surging greater than 2% off the June lows. The rally faltered at key resistance into the near of the month on the 2023 / 2024 high-week closes (HWC) at 106.10/11- the point of interest is on feasible inflection off this threshold with the long-bias susceptible whilst below.
Initial weekly guide rests with the June low-week reversal near at 104.ninety five sponsored through key guide once more on the 52-week transferring average / 38.2% retracement, now 104.21/26- losses need to be constrained to this threshold for the January uptrend to stay viable. Broader, bullish invalidation regular at 102.87/99- a area outline through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December rally, the 2016 high-near, and the 2023 January low-week near (LWC).
A topside breach / weekly near above 106.10 might be had to mark uptrend resumption with next goals eyed on the 50% retracement of the 2022 decline / 2023 highs at 107.18/34 and key resistance on the 100% extension of the 2023 advance / 61.8% retracement at 108.38/97- search for a bigger response there IF reached.
DXY declined when Biden withdrew from the White HouseDXY: The USD index in today's session has reacted to a decrease and correction right after the information last weekend. Showing a bearish outlook in the context of Biden's withdrawal from the white house. The scenario in today's trading session is that DXY is expected to continue to weaken. Ace, please consider selling with USD
US President Joe Biden introduced the stop of his re-election marketing campaign on July 21 (US time) and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris to update him because the Democratic presidential candidate.
In the assertion on
This week, he's scheduled to present a public speech.
Being your president is the greatest honor of my life. Although I intend to run for re-election, I believe that for the best interests of my party and the country, I should stop and only focus on completing my presidential duties," Mr. Biden wrote.
A few minutes after the above message, he wrote another message supporting Ms. Harris. "I chose Ms. Kamala Harris as my vice presidential candidate in the 2020 race. And it was the best decision I made," he continued.
DeGRAM | DXY reversal after AB=CDDXY continues to move in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price has reached the lower boundary of the channel, and also broke through the resistance level, which now acts as support, and also already acted as a growth point.
The chart has formed a pattern AB=CD.
We expect the growth to continue after the retest of the nearest support.
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DeGRAM | DXY retest of the channel boundaryDXY is moving in a descending channel between trend lines.
The chart has already reached the lower boundary of the channel.
The price is at the 78.6% retracement level.
We expect a rebound after a retest of the lower channel boundary.
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DXY Heading Lower Toward Bitcoin Rally Zone The DXY is in a downtrending channel and despite today's small bounce based on MFG data, it's still looking like it will lose this key level in the coming days.
This brief cool-off period before the 23rd when the ETH ETF is schedule to start trading would make sense and with BTC retracing from the strong sell order blocks at $66k which I've been talking about for over a week.
The big question will be -- If BTC can break above the 5th attempt at the upper trendline resistance and close back above $72k and then a new new ATH over $74k.
THEN I'll be convinced we do head hither.
Until then, I recommend cautious optimism, taking profits along the way and being ready to get out of this market. The cycle low should be later in August, but we'll see.