DXYDXY Breakdown for the week of 4/16 w/ @MiFranz
So as we see on the Weekly chart, We are at a VERY important Support. Click the link and zoom out and you will see the bullish flag. Also, its the re-test of the falling wedge (more to come on the daily for that). This is re-test #2 and a possible Higher Low. Also, look below at the RSI. We are either at a divergence opportunity with a double bottom or it will continue to go to the 20-25 OS (Oversold) zone. If we are looking at a double bottom and we go bullish, its a long way up to a new high.
Now we look at the daily. The falling wedge is present w/ re-test AND we are at a double bottom, looks possibly Bullish. Plus the last candle to close is bullish engulfing.
Now we are getting into the execution realm on the 4h and below. I have marked of in a red zone, a FVG (Fair Value gap). Friday's push caused a nice reason to pullback. I expect a bearish opening now so we will see any major bull moves probably starting Tuesday (based on Technicals)We also see the RSI rejected off the 20-25 OS zone which is an interesting sign. It was so strong, it could either go touch 70-75 and continue bearish or pullback for a HL and then go touch OB (Overbought).
Off the 1h, we are now looking for entry. I would look for a very small gap up, and then the drop to go to the FVG.We see the 1h is very OB in the RSI and it needs a LH on it with the drop afterward. Im looking for bearish moves until otherwise.
We can clearly see now on the 15m, the small bull move up (Opening gap), and then the drop coming afterwards (path tool)
Dxyanalysis
DXY - Tool to assess Risk on/ Risk off scenariosHi guys. Welcome to my TA analysis on the dollar index. ALot of talk has been going on about whether or not we are in a bull market for bitcoin and if equities will rally further or not. In order to assess or determine if its likely that we are, the dollar is used by many analysts to gauge at what the sentiment is, whether "RISK ON" or "RISK OFF". As such i also have come to analyze and use DXY as such a tool.
RISK ON = When dollar is decreasing in price, other assets tend to go up. ( Hence we hear people mention "oh, the dollar is inversely related to stocks, crypto)
RISK OFF = sentiment is scared to invest and people flock to the safety of cash/dollar, Increasing the value of the dollar and prices of other assets decrease in price
With that lets look into what i see in the charts for DXY.
This analysis is done on the 2 day timeframe.
I've zoomed out to include about 17 years of data.
So PRICE ACTION
As you can see its interacting with the Red line that is drawn on chart. This is the 200 Day Moving Average. If you look left at all the examples i put up, everytime price action goes down we are below this line for atleast 100 days to as long as couple of years. WE also decline between 2% to as much as 20%.
The 2 recent times, we were under it for 380 days and 488 days with price dropping further down. Ofcourse our current price action doesnt have to do this but because it occured previously it is not out of the question.
At the least expect sideways action, which is also not a bad thing for RISK ON mentality.
BUT as of now we have CONFIRMED below the 200 dma on the 2 day timeframe. I expect the dollar to drop more in the intermediate to longer term of atleast 3 months to a 1 year even. The longer the dollar stays below, the stronger RISK ON mentality gets. This would validate the recent Crypto uptrend and may push equities, housing and others up too.
To further support my thesis, check out the 2 indicators i put up
1. RSI - I believe we have further sell off on the RSI and im expecting it to do below the 20 level, as it did in the examples i circled with white. Also notice the white horizontal resistance line i drew. As long as we stay below here, it validates my thesis of dollar staying down. Im expecting atleast 1 touch point near or below the 20 level. RSI is a close indicator of price action, when it points down, price usually follows and vice versa.
2. ADX and DI - Ths tracks momentum. As highlighted red line is crossing up, indicating bearish momentum to pick up. When price action is below the 200 dma and a bearish cross occurs we usually go down in price.
CONCLUSION: With everything mentioned, in my opinion i believe DXY to go down further in price, it staying in a downtrend for atleast 3 months to 1 year. Supporting the idea that maybe we are in the beginning stages of a crypto bull market and we may see equities rally more.
Thanks for tuning in. Hope this helped. If you like the content, please BOOST, COMMENT and FOLLOW. Check out my other charts on DXY. If you liked what you read, i also do potential buy/sell analysis on stock/ cryptos.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Everything expressed in my posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading please do manage your risk and protect yourselves with stop losses.
USDX(Dollar) Must Continue To Extend LowerTechnical Analysis:
- As you can see the above daily chart, USDX is still doing a ABC correction in blue
- We present two possible paths - Black and Blue ( With actual data each path has 50% probability )
- The decision of both paths (Black and Blue) will be taken when USDX will arrive to the orange circle area
- Short term structure is bearish
- H1 Right Side is down
- H4 Right Side is turning down
Technical Information:
- Don't buy USDX (Dollar) now in short term
- We like to buy when wave C in blue and wave 4 in black are completed
DXY on the way to destroy Resistance lines⚔️!!!The DXY index has managed to break resistance line 1.
It is expected that wave 3 can break the resistance line 2, and finally the impulse wave 5 will end near the 🔴resistance zone($103.6-$103.3)🔴.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, 1h-time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DXY AT IMPORTANT RANGEHello friends, today Jerome Powell indicated that they should increase interest rates further more, they said same thing last month but it didn't give much strength enough to DXY enough, so I expect such a move which I have indicated in the chart... and J Powell speech indicates that there's loads of supply of US dollar in the market, and to make US Dollar strong, they should lower down the dollar note printing... and they have to lower the supply of US Dollar.... this indicates that US dollar supply is high, which means collapse of DXY... and I expect US dollar crash anytime soon, and I predict that it may happen after NFP report on 10 March...
Hope y'all wellness....
DXY : Short Trade , 1hHello traders, we want to check the DXY chart in the 1-hour time frame. The price is moving in a downward channel and after breaking the key level of 101.900, it has pulled back to this level. We expect this level to act as a resistance level for us. Play and maintain the downward trend of the price and drop to the next key level around the price of 100,900. Good luck.
#DXY- BUY XXXUSD to catch Big Moves!!Dear Traders, following yesterday data on NFP we have now identified that USD pairs will be bullish for longer time as fear of recession has risen again, from negative NFP to increasing tax on Capital gains, everything indicating towards a negative DXY; we also have CPI next week which will be interesting and important for the investors and traders. It will be better to leave USD pairs alone on Monday where we will have a better understanding of the price action.
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DXYThe last bottom is really important to change or continue bearish trend. As you know we need DXY to analysis most of the charts so we should know DXY trend. If price break down the bottom it can continue and cause to break and change most of my analysis. if price turn before the last bottom, it can go up to around last top and all of my analysis is true, and you can use it. if price touch bottom line and turn to up, we should analysis DXY with next wave to change analysis DXY and other charts.
DXY might see bright days in AprilWhat we are looking at in this chart is the technical analysis of where $index might be heading for the upcoming days. Now let us analyze the technical signs first then try to extract a tangible conclusion:
1- We have touched a demand zone that was formed recently during March, 2023
2- After bouncing off a recent high near ~106, a downtrend channel movement was observed. Which was broken a few days ago and today it almost got retested and now the price is showing rejecting off of it
3- A prominent bullish convergence can be seen on our RSI, which is leading us to believe that DXY might go bullish in the upcoming days
4- MACD demonstrated a golden cross in the start of the month but it changes quite often so we will wait to see if we get a golden cross again to further support our claim of bullish ahead for DXY
5- After breaking out of the downtrend channel we have observed the price moving in a wedge consolidatory pattern, DXY golden April will find more support if that wedge gets broken high
These were the technical aspects I could extract off the chart as of now. These indications portray that DXY might turn bullish for the remaining April 2023.
I will publish its targets once it confirms by breaking higher than consolidation zone
Note: The analysis invalidates if the purple demand zone gets breached!
Hint: You may link this analysis to your trades in other instruments like Gold, Silver or any other instrument that gets the impact is the relative strength of USD changes in the market.
Best of luck and happy trading :-)
[DXY] short term bearish (but long term bullish)In daily TF, the price structure shows the beginning of a correction after a rise of about 28% (from the support 90), confirmed by a triple top of DXY, a MACD triple top and a bearish divergence of RSI.
In monthly TF, we have a strong uptrend due to a huge bullish divergence and a triple bottom.
DXY 04 April Next MovePair : DXY Index
Description :
Rising Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame as an Corrective Pattern with the Breakout of the Lower Trend Line
Selling Divergence
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Wave
Break of Structure
Symmetrical Triangle in Short Time Frame and Breakout the LTL and Completed the Retracement
Impulse Correction
Rejection from Fibonacci Level - 38.20%
DXY Weekly CloseOnly a personal opinion - DXY Weekly
Seems positive for the USD today; look out two weeks, and it can still remain around the 102 level.
It will be sideways in the area 102-103 for the following week, now attempting to go to area 103.
If it break, the area 103 will continue to the area 104,448.
Perhaps the usd will receive some good news.