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Dxyanalysis

DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Preping for MondayThe DXY is presently confined within a range, evident on both the 1-day (1D) and 4-hour (4H) time frames. Given that it is the end of the week, I am exercising caution about active market participation, considering the customary manipulation observed on Fridays as smart money strategically targets stops, aligning them with the upcoming week's trend. In this video, we evaluate the dollar index and contemplate potential trade scenarios with dollar pairs for the approaching week. It is important to emphasize that this content is intended strictly for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
7
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis - Where Is The USD Heading?DXY Analysis: The Dollar Index (DXY) has exhibited range-bound behavior recently, lacking a clear directional bias. While there are bearish undertones, a confirmed downtrend requires a break below the current range followed by a failed retest. This video explores multiple timeframes (monthly, weekly, daily, 4-hour) to identify potential dollar direction in the coming days and week. Given the key role of the dollar in shaping currency markets, its trading action significantly impacts opportunities in other pairs. However, with the current sideways movement, identifying high-probability trades could be challenging, especially considering the increased risk associated with end-of-week volatility and potential stop-hunting activity. Disclaimer: This analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice.
TVC:DXY
by fxtraderanthony
The DXY Anomaly: Interpreting the Incoming CorrectionThis week's focus is on the potential for a minor retracement in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), highlighted by a noticeable bearish divergence when compared with the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures. This divergence is particularly significant as it suggests a weakening momentum in the dollar's recent uptrend. While both the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures have succeeded in setting new highs, the DXY has not followed suit, failing to create a higher high. This disparity indicates that the upward movement in the 10-year Treasury yield and the 10-year T-Note futures could be attributed more to a liquidity-driven event rather than a fundamental change in market sentiment towards the dollar. As a result, we can anticipate possible bearish movements in forex pairs where the dollar is the base currency in the coming week. Conversely, in pairs where the dollar is the quote currency, there could be bullish movements. However, it is important to note that these expectations are also contingent on the performance and dynamics of the counterpart currencies in these pairs. Traders should monitor the DXY for early signs of a reversal and adjust their positions accordingly, keeping in mind the broader implications of a weakening dollar on various currency pairs. As always, a comprehensive approach that considers global economic news and geopolitical developments will be essential in navigating the forex market during this period of potential dollar retracement.
TVC:DXYShort
by Wiiso
The USD index look set to trade to and through 104We have remained bullish the US dollar the past few weeks, and continue to suspect there are plenty of shorts to be covered as markets finally concede that fewer Fed cuts are coming this year and already priced in. The dollar has posted a strong rally YTD, and after a brief consolidation momentum is trying to turn higher with a bullish outside candle. It's not major surprise to see it is holding beneath the 200-day EMA, but it did close above the 200-day MA. And if the US delivers a strong set of flash PMI figures or PCE inflation data, we suspect the US dollar can travel to and through 105 on its way to 105.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by CityIndex
DXY (Dollar Index) Longs from 102.200 back upThe dollar index is presently responding to my 14hr supply zone, leading to a visible bearish reaction. Given that this supply is part of a 2-day supply, I anticipate price to move upward to further mitigate this supply, potentially triggering a more stronger bearish response. With the breakout from consolidation, I anticipate clearer price action. I will be monitoring for price to reach a 10hr demand zone that has previously resulted in a BOS on the higher timeframe. Upon reaching this point of interest (POI), I will then be on the lookout for an accumulation to unfold. Confluences for Dollar buys are as follows. - Market trend is overall bullish on the higher timeframe - Price has broken structure to the upside on the HTF. - Price is currently reacting off a supply to trigger the pullback towards our demand - Theres lots of liquidity and imbalances that need to get taken above as well. - 10hr demand zone lies within the 0.78 fib range and it caused the BOS to happen P.S. While I don't engage in direct trading of the dollar, I utilise it for confluence, especially since this pair significantly impacts the others I monitor. There's a possibility of a short-lived bullish trend if the 2-day supply zone doesn't hold. However, given the initial reaction, a downward movement seems likely. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD, LET'S CATCH THESE PIPS!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
Is the DXY in a long term downtrend? DXY Downtrend The 6 month candle chart suggests we could be in for at least two red quarters which would suggesting positive markets..... which seems contradictory to the current sentiment BUT not the current charts (S&P, NASDAQ,etc). The weekly chart currently shows the critical resistance at $1.00 and we appear to be heading straight for it. I genuinely think that given the 10 month SMA turning to the downside will act as resistance and the three tests of the underside support may puncture the resistance and lead to further downside., As always there are no guarantee's but the DXY chart in my opinion currently looks bearish long term. I am currently looking at a time based analyses at the which will follow Time will tell PUKA OUT
TVC:DXYShort
by PukaCharts
DXY (Dollar Index) Shorts from 103.400 back down!As the dollar has been consolidating in the past week, opportunities near the current price are limited. However, my nearest Point of Interest (POI) is a supply zone on the 14-hour chart. I am looking to capitalize on this by selling to continue the bearish trend observed in the dollar index. I'll be patiently waiting for a breakout from this range, aiming to fill the imbalances above and eventually reach our identified supply zone. On the flip side, if price breaks below the consolidation, it could tap into a demand zone, sweeping liquidity beneath the range. In this scenario, I anticipate a bullish reaction, possibly a temporary move to the upside before eventually targeting our supply zone. Confluences for Dollar sells are as follows: - Overall temporary trend for this pair is bearish so this idea aligns with that bias. - Bullish pressure is now getting exhausted as you can see from the ranging price action - Price has left imbalances just below the supply that needs to get filled, validating our POI. - There is lots of liquidity to the downside that needs to be taken. - Price is due for a pullback to enter a level of supply if price wants to keep dropping lower. P.S. If price unfolds in a manner similar to how EURUSD is behaving, I will patiently await a breakout from this area. Subsequently, I will assess its behaviour and adapt my approach based on the information the market presents. Have a great week ahead traders!
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
USD's Uncertain Horizon: Will the Dollar Weather Global Changes?Introduction: In this revised analysis of the DXY, we explore a multi-layered Elliott Wave structure comprising three main waves – blue, orange, and red – and examine their interactions within different corrective channels. This analysis also considers historical economic events and current global shifts to project potential future movements of the DXY. Wave Structures: Blue Wave: Represents the main wave in an ABC flat correction format. Orange Wave: A complex correction forming the blue Wave B. Red Wave: Another complex correction, creating the orange Wave B. Five Impulse Waves: Potentially part of or completing the Orange Wave C and Blue Wave B. Channels: Corrective Price Channel (1): Believed to hold the true value of the DXY. Further explanation will follow. Corrective Price Channel (2): Encompassing the red correction wave. Termination Channel: Contains the five impulse waves and is expected to be breached during the current DXY correction. Wave Dynamics and Historical Context: Post-Nixon Shock Movement: Following the Nixon shock, the DXY fell to around 80, completing the Blue Wave A. Sharp Rise to 164: Initially thought to be Blue Wave B, but I realize that naming such a significant and steep rise as a B wave might not align with conventional EWT principles. Typically, B waves are corrective and less dynamic compared to impulse waves, therefor I consider it as the first leg of the orange wave and labeled orange A Subsequent Sharp Decline: The fall to around 78 is labeled Red Wave A for the same reason. Rise to 121: This phase represents a complex correction that forms the Red Wave B, following a WXY pattern: * W: Manifests as a flat correction. * X: A simple correction. * Y: Takes the form of a Zigzag, which is more clearly visible in the smaller 1M Frame. Decline to 70: A sharp drop in a Zigzag pattern (seen in the 1M Frame), completing the Red Wave C and the Orange Wave B, notably ending behind the start of Orange Wave A. Current Movements and Future Scenarios: Rise to 114: Characterized by a shallow trend angle, suggesting it's a corrective wave. Ongoing Correction: Following the five impulse waves, based on Kennedy Channels Theory, the DXY is expected to break the Termination Channel, potentially descending to the 93-87 area. Scenario 1: Continuation of the Decline Description: If the DXY continues its downward trajectory, it would indicate that the previous impulse wave forms the final leg of the Orange Wave, which is in the form of a running flat. Impact on Wave Structures: This movement also completes the Blue Wave B simultaneously. Projection: Following this path, we would move towards completing the Blue Wave C, potentially reaching around 73. Analysis Viewpoint: This scenario aligns well with the Elliott Wave analysis, culminating in a regular flat correction for the DXY. Scenario 2: Rebound and New Impulse Waves Description: Should the DXY rebound from the current area and initiate a new series of 5 impulse waves, it would suggest that the Orange Wave C is developing in a Zigzag pattern. Expected Range: The completion of this pattern is projected to be in the 125-131 area. Further Classification: In this case, the Orange Wave would be categorized as WXY, forming the Blue Wave B behind the start of Blue Wave A. Implication: This would predominantly characterize the Blue Wave as an extended flat correction, potentially driving the DXY down to the 70 level, and possibly even lower to around 65 (corresponding to the 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci levels). Likelihood: From my personal standpoint, this scenario appears to be the more probable outcome, with reasons for this view to be elaborated in the following section. Broader Perspective: Why is Corrective Price Channel (1) Considered the Real DXY Value? The question of the real value of the DXY post-Nixon shock is intriguing. Following this event, the US dollar ceased to derive its value from gold, marking a transition to what can be considered its true value. This shift turned the dollar into a piece of paper whose worth is determined by public perception, not unlike the way Bitcoin is valued today. During this time, the technology used to print the dollar was regarded as cutting-edge, much like computers that produce Bitcoin. When the DXY fell to around 80, Ronald Reagan's administration implemented expansionary fiscal policies and dramatically increased interest rates. Most countries were heavily reliant on the dollar at this time and had limited options for response, which led to the sharp green rise in the DXY, forming what I refer to as the orange A wave. The subsequent Plaza Accord saw the US and G7 countries take concerted steps to devalue the dollar, intending to bring it back to what was considered its natural level. This agreement played a significant role in reversing the previous sharp increase. As a result, I view the movement above Corrective Price Channel (1) as a consequence of extreme policy measures rather than a genuine market movement. These policies led to an artificial inflation and then deflation of the dollar's value within the channel, distorting its true market representation. Why I Believe Scenario 2 is More Likely to Happen: My belief in the likelihood of Scenario 2 stems from the concept embodied by the 'BRICS Group.' It's not just the group itself, but the underlying idea it represents that's pivotal. This notion reflects a growing weariness among many nations over the United States' dominance in the global economy, particularly through its control of monetary movements via the dollar. Increasingly, these countries are convinced of the need to break free from this American economic influence. There's a rising trend of nations seeking to support their own currencies more robustly, fostering trade exchanges directly in their local currencies. This shift represents a significant move away from the long-standing norm of viewing the dollar as the primary benchmark for other currencies. By doing so, these countries aim to establish a more autonomous economic framework, less dependent on the fluctuations and policies of the US dollar. Of course, the shift away from the dollar's dominance won't be immediate, and the US is well aware of this. America has formulated strategic plans to counteract the BRICS group's initiatives. This strategy began with imposing successive sanctions on China to curb its economic growth, then moved to geopolitical maneuvering in Ukraine, aiming to engage Russia in a prolonged, draining conflict. A similar approach has been considered for China, involving potential conflicts surrounding Taiwan. However, recent developments in the Middle East have led to a significant shift in America's focus. Originally aiming to maintain its global economic supremacy, the US is now increasingly involved in conflicts that center around protecting Israel. This involvement has drawn the US deeper into long-term, complex wars. Notably, its military actions in Yemen and the distribution of forces across Syria, Iraq, and the Red Sea region increase the difficulties of controlling this war. America's repeated use of its veto power to block ceasefires has further impacted its global standing. Once viewed as a moral and diplomatic leader, the US is now perceived differently on the world stage, a change I believe will affect its international image for an extended period. This evolving perception and the shifting focus of US foreign policy are likely to result in an increasing number of countries seriously considering breaking away from the dominance of the US dollar. This trend suggests a growing alignment with the principles of the BRICS group, even if countries do not formally join it. The goal is to escape the overbearing influence of America and the G7 on their economies. In response to this shift, the United States is unlikely to passively accept these changes. It's anticipated that America will attempt to implement financial policies similar to those used in the 1980s. These policies were designed to elevate the dollar's value and prevent significant declines. This approach is expected to lead to the emergence of five new waves in the dollar's valuation, marking the final phase of this economic cycle. However, the global economic landscape of today is markedly different from that of the 1980s. Most countries now possess stronger economies, or at the very least, they have the capability to rely on their local economies for essential services. My analysis indicates that when the DXY reaches around the 125-131 range, the dollar is projected to fall to levels between 70 and 65, thereafter moving within a sideway Waves in a maximum value of around 110, which is expected to gradually decrease over time. An important note is that America appears to be seeking alternative strategies to maintain economic control. One such strategy is the control of the cryptocurrency market, as evidenced by the Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin. This move suggests that America is preparing for scenarios where it may no longer be able to exert direct control over the dollar's value. Disclaimer: This is not trading advice. Please conduct your own research and consult with financial experts before making any trading decisions.
TVC:DXY
by ahmadsaad83
DXY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe DXY has exhibited a prolonged period of consolidation, while the higher time frame reveals a robust downtrend. In the video analysis, we observe notable price action, identifying a triple top with a spike above, potentially indicative of a stop run, suggesting the likelihood of continued downward movement. Additionally, the video explores the prospect of a break below the current range low, followed by a retest and subsequent failure, presenting a potential selling opportunity. It is crucial to emphasize that the information provided herein is not intended as financial advice.
TVC:DXYShort
by fxtraderanthony
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaIn this video, we take a close look at the Dollar Index (DXY) on higher timeframes to assess the prevailing bullish momentum and its potential implications for traders. We'll delve into market structure, price action, and explore a potential trade setup. Important Disclaimer: The information presented here is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Trading carries inherent risk, and proper risk management is essential. Capital preservation remains paramount.
TVC:DXYLong
by fxtraderanthony
DXY to continue declineDXY started a recovery from 100.257 from the heavy decline due to the pause in the interest rate hikes back in December 13th, 2023. The index started to recover from 28th December and to 102.723 due to the positive news from the last Friday NFP fundamentals. Price was quickly knocked down by the negative news on the ISMs late Friday. DXY January candle has done a retracement unto the 61.8%-78.6% (EMA 20) of the December bearish candle. As a result of the retracement on the December candle, the DXY is expected to retest the weekly EMA 200 on the key level 100.500 and as at the ending of last Friday, price was resisted by the weekly resistance. On the Daily, the DXY index is expected to retest the EMA 200 at 101.706 and subsequently retest the key level 101.500 again. The important fundamentals this week are mainly the Thursday's Core CPI m/m and the Friday's PP1 m/m where the economists are projecting a negative news for the CPI. We need to keep an eagle eye on the news this week to make informed decisions.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AbeikuGlobal_FX
2
What should we expect from DXY Index by the end of 2023❗️❓🗺️👋Hi everyone (Reading time less than 3 minutes⏰) . 📚One of the most important Indices that we should have an analysis of is the DXY index because it has a direct impact on the Forex , Cryptocurrency , and stock and etc markets. So, in this post, I'm going to show you the 🗺️ Roadmap 🗺️ for DXY until at least the End of 2023 and Early 2024 . 💡I used the Monthly time frame and Elliott wave theory to display the DXY index roadmap better. 💡First of all, it is better to know that the DXY index has formed an Ascending Channel since 2008 and is moving in it. 🌊According to the theory of Elliott waves , the DXY index has succeeded in completing its 5 impulsive waves in the ascending channel so that the 3rd wave was an extended wave . 🌊As a result, it seems that Corrective waves have started, and to confirm this, it is better to wait for the break of the lower line of the ascending channel. 🔔I expect the DXY to move between 🔴Heavy Resistance zone($107.62-$103.10)🔴 and 🟢Support zone($101.64-$99.58)🟢 by the end of 2023 and early 2024, and in mid-2024 , the DXY will begin to trend Down , and Financial markets will likely turn 🚀Green🚀 . DXY Index Analyze ( DXYUSD ), Monthly time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
TVC:DXY
by pejman_zwin
7
DXY Shorts from 102.400 Down towards 101.000The DXY forecast remains bearish in my view; however, there is a notable strong bullish retracement occurring. I perceive this retracement as temporary, as the price is retracing back to a premium supply level. I anticipate a distribution to take place in either the 1-hour supply zone I've identified or... Alternatively, if the price continues to climb higher, fully mitigating the imbalance, it may enter my preferred 14-hour supply zone, which previously caused a break of structure to the downside. Should the price decline without touching these two zones, I will then be on the lookout for a buying opportunity around 101.000. Confluences for DXY dollar sells are as follows: - Dollar is temporarily bearish due to the break of structures on the higher timeframe. - Currently price has reacted off a demand so I can expect bullish pressure to get exhausted. - Price is slowing down foreshadowing a potential wyckoff distribution to play out. - Lots of liquidity still left below in the form trend line liquidity and major imbalances. - Candlestick anatomy shows that price might have a bearish drop as its mitigated an imbalance above partially P.S. While my current stance is bearish in the market, this minor bullish retracement appears temporary, and I anticipate the price to resume its downward trajectory. However, considering the presence of numerous imbalances, I prefer to observe price movements before deciding on my course of action. Have a great trading week ahead guys!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by Hassan_fx
1