US30 Pair : US30 Dow Jones
Description :
Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves
RSI - Divergence
Break of Structure
Bullish Channel as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Impulse Correction
Dowjones
The end of a rally or expansion with a correction to the degree Greetings
Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Dow Jones: Mixed Economic Data and Dollar DynamicsThe recent release of Initial Jobless Claims by the US Department of Labor has unveiled a slightly higher figure than anticipated. This unexpected uptick is seen as a consequence of the rise in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 2nd, coupled with lower-than-expected Unit Labour Costs from the fourth quarter.
As market observers eagerly await the arrival of crucial labor market data on Friday, including the Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and NonFarm Payrolls for February, the trajectory of the US Dollar Index (DXY) hangs in the balance. These forthcoming data points are poised to dictate short-term movements in the DXY.
Moreover, the possibility of additional labor market data releases on Friday raises concerns of imminent rate cuts, which could exert further downward pressure on the Greenback.
On the technical front, the price has reached a critical Resistance level around 38,900, coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. In response to this confluence, a selling position has been initiated, with the first take-profit target set at 38,500.
As investors navigate through the complexities of mixed economic signals and anticipate the impact of impending data releases, market sentiment towards the US Dollar remains uncertain. The outcome of Friday's labor market data will likely steer the direction of the Greenback in the immediate future, influencing trading strategies and investment decisions across global markets.
AriasWave Market Update - DOW - ASX - BTC - XLM - XRPIn this video, I aim to provide an overview of my observations regarding the approach toward a potential market peak.
I'll offer some perspective by comparing the Dow Jones to the ASX (Australian Stock Market) and discuss the possibility of a significant downturn in global markets, comparable to a collapse. I'll outline various factors contributing to these considerations.
Viewing the markets from this angle, one begins to recognize parallels with the tech stocks of the 90s, many of which peaked and experienced a decline of at least 90%, with some becoming worthless.
I see a similar scenario unfolding with cryptocurrencies, where survival will be selective, and many may not endure.
DOW JONES - We Could See A Major Collapse Within 12 Months...I've compiled my latest comprehensive analysis of the stock market, as I strongly believe it offers crucial insights into market psychology, spanning across Cryptos, Stocks, and various assets.
To dispel any notions of spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), I meticulously outline the pattern and highlight key levels to monitor. Should this analysis hold true, it would elucidate why Cryptos might experience further decline, particularly considering many were introduced at the market's peak, potentially reflecting the rampant speculation prevailing in all sectors.
While I evaluate each chart independently, the broader implications on market psychology could catalyze a widespread sell-off across all markets.
Please keep in mind: This methodology isn't based on Elliott Wave theory, so any assumptions suggesting otherwise would reflect a misunderstanding on your part. AriasWave is a unique approach I've developed over almost a decade.
US30 Trade IdeaUS530: Riding the Ascending Channel to New Heights
The US30 index has been tracing an ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, a bullish pattern that suggests a continuation of the current uptrend. This pattern is characterized by two parallel upward-sloping trend lines that have been containing the price action.
Key Observations:
Bullish Sentiment: The ascending channel indicates a strong bullish sentiment as it is formed by a series of higher highs and higher lows.
Support and Resistance: The lower trend line serves as support, while the upper trend line acts as resistance.
Trading Strategy: Traders might consider buying at the lower trend line or on a breakout above the upper trend line.
Trade Execution:
Entry Point: A pullback towards the lower trend line could be a potential entry point, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Stop Loss: A stop loss can be placed just below the lower trend line to protect against a potential breakdown.
Take Profit: The height of the channel can be used to project potential take profit levels, either from the point of entry or from the upper trend line if trading a breakout.
Risk Consideration:
Ensure to monitor for any signs of a breakdown below the lower trend line, which could invalidate the pattern.
Adjust positions according to the evolving market conditions and maintain a disciplined approach to risk management.
Trade ideas are speculative and should be considered within the context of your overall market analysis and trading strategy.
This trade idea is based on the ascending channel pattern, which is a common bullish signal in technical analysis. It’s important to combine this with other indicators and market analysis for a well-rounded trading decision. Happy trading!
DOW JONES Strongest sell signal since August!Dow Jones / US30 has hit the top of its Channel Up.
Once the 1day MA50 breaks (has been in support since November 2nd 2023), we will have a sell validation.
In addition, the 1day RSI is on the strongest Bearish Divergence since February 2020 and the start of the COVID crash.
Sell than and target 36700 the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the top.
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Bitcoin - BTCUSD 1hr Just so we are clear... I do not trade crypto... but I can not help myself when I see a perfect setup. It's simple trading once again. we are in a bullish market so we are looking for buy opportunities.
*NFP week! We all saw it, Negative USD News!
BULLISH CONFIRMATIONS:
1. massive head and shoulders
2. Hammer above bearish trend high
3. Hammer above Daily Resistance
4. Higher highs above the previous shoulder
*Do not overthink it. We are in a bullish market with clean higher highs.
*Pay attention to Daily and Weekly Close
US30 sellI had been waiting days for this move and during the week US30 had created equal highs and built liquidity where I was waiting for price to eventually tap into the main supply zone also taking out early sellers.
Upon seeing that volume was coming back into the market at around 2.30pm Uk time I set a sell limit @38950.00 with sl@39000.00 (risking 50pts). Zooming into the 1min once price entered into zone and broke structure to the downside this gave me added confluence.
TP1: 38800.00 TP2: 38650.00 TP3:38450.00 TP4: 38300.00
* Where has the market moved since I entered my trade? PROFITS
* If I looked at the market now, would I take the same trade? yes
* How do I feel about my trade? optimistic
* What do I like about this trade ? precise entry, patience stalking the move
* What do I dis-like about this trade now? nothing just that it may go into next week
* On a scale of 1 to 10, where would I rate this Trade now? 8/10
* If I were not in a trade now, would I take the opposite trade ? no
Dow Jones is going to fall ?? Dow Jones is Working this Rising Channel
Currently Index may touch 41000 on days to come but
As history shows after every rise of 20% DJIA gives the fall of 6-7%
We are little bearish on Stock markets
Well well well !!
If USA market goes down then can we expect overall world market to fall ??
Lets see !!
Thanks !!
Major Indices: Macro SR Fibonacci SchematicsHere we have every major American indices in the world including the S&P-500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000. This list excludes major foreign indices. For this idea, we have 2 boxes per indices. This is so we have room to include all schematics in the blueprint (chart). Let us define each indices and then we can talk about what makes each individual box up.
1. S&P-500 = (Standard and Poor's 500) Largest publicly traded companies in the US. (Benchmark for the overall US stock market and economy)
2. DJIA = (The Dow Jones Industrial Average) Tracks 30 large, publicly owned blue chip companies. Indicator of the health of the US economy, especially in the Industrial sector.
3. NASDAQ Composite = Heavily weighted towards the tech sector. Includes 3,000 stocks/all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
4. RUSSELL 2000 = Measures performance of 2,000 smaller-cap American companies. There's a distinct difference from the small cap measurement of the Russell and big caps like the S&P.
Now, each set of boxes are entirely different. There are no schematics in more than one box AT ALL. EVERY SINGLE BOX is 100% unique. Now that we know this lets examine...
1. Both S&P boxes include the following. 2 sets of schematics, a set of fib circle pairs, and a set of Fib Forks for EACH BOX.
2. Both DOW JONES chart have a schematic each. The 1st box has a set of fib circles but not the 2nd. The 2nd has a set of Fib Forks and so does the 1st.
3. Both NASDAQ boxes have a schematic each. Also, each has a set of Fib Spikes AND Fib Forks.
4. Both RUSSELL boxes have a schematic each. Each has sets of Fib Forks with the important ones highlighted in either black, yellow, or white to show the variety and how each different set reacts differently.
One must see that the different thickness and colors of separate sets of schematics are to distinguish them from its surroundings. My own forged Market Theory is that there is a BASE SET of Fib Extensions in the background which makes up our structure. Then, in the foreground, we have our Fib Spikes and then we lay over our Fib Forks. Finally, we have a totally finished, CLUSTERED, Schematic. SO, every single schematic that I make is all just individual schematics clustered together.
DOW JONES: Mega sell signal formed.Dow Jones has hit the top of the 18 month Channel Up and is already being rejected, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.769, MACD = 112.170, ADX = 21.784). This is a rejection that can evolve into a full bearish reversal as the 1W RSI broke under its MA trendline. This is important because every time this break out happened (dashed vertical lines), the index had technical corrections.
Inside the Channel Up those initially hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we can target at least the S1 level (TP = 37,030) but it is equally likely to reach even below the 0.382 Fib and contact the 1W MA50.
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DOW JONES Short-term correction has began.Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a Declining Histogram similar to the August 2023, December 2022 and August 2022 tops:
To get a better idea of the shorter term implications of that signal, we view Dow today from the 1D time-frame, where the 1D RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against the index' Higher Highs) December 19 2023. Again within the structure of the Channel Up, the same RSI pattern was formed during the August 01 2023 and December 2022 Higher Highs. Both declined by virtually the same percentage (-9.25%).
Such a decline would push the price as low as 35650, which is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. Instead we would like, as mentioned, to keep a shorter term perspective here and time a 3-4 week target. Once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, it will be the most optimal sell confirmation, with a conservative short-term Target being Support 2 at 37120.
Notice that this would be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the Channel and if it takes place in early April, it will be as close to the 1D MA200 as possible. In any case, the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold barrier, is technically always a solid level to start buying again for the long-term. Note also how the current top is virtually the same rally % (+21.00%) as December 13 2022. This shows that we shouldn't neglect the symmetry of waves within this long-term Channel Up.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to support area 38604.Dear colleagues, the price rushed upwards and did not update the low 38045. This means that wave 2 has long been formed and now the formation of the upward wave 3 is underway. But we are observing a price gap, and as we know, the gap is usually closed. Besides, it does not violate the wave structure in any way.
So I suppose that the price will close the gap and reach the support area 38604.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SEVEN SPIRALS JAN !)to JAN 18 A MAJOR TURN EVENTThe chart posted is the NYSE and I have not alt one wave within the count and We have 7 golden ratio spirals in time pointing to a FOCUS Point the week of JAN 10 to the 18th 2024 I am LOOKING FOR A WORLD WIDE EVENT If you look at each one of the points The Markets had HUGE MOVES that started. We are now also above the monthly Bollinger bands in the dji Everytime we broke above the band back to 1902 by 1.4 to 3.45 % btw we only had once 4.4% in 121 years The DOW had a sharp move to the downside 10 % or more and most were the FINAL PEAKS we are now 1.25 % above . BEST of TRADES WAVETIMER
UPDATE: US 30 trend trading haven to 40,000This is a bit out of my expertise.
THe price broke above the pattern and reached the first target.
Since then it's bneen a trenders market. Simply buying, holding and raising stop losses above in case the trend changes.
They have their systems and strategies, and I'm just waiting for a Breakout pattern to form.
However, the price is above both 20MA and 200MA which makes the bias continued to be bullish.
The next target I can imagine is none other than a psychological level at 40,000.
Then we could see consolidation and range boundedness for a while.
DOW JONES - My Stock Market Thoughts Relating To Crypto...I've been pondering this concept for some time now, and it directly challenges the prevailing Elliott Wave Theory's market predictions.
I'm able to offer you an alternative perspective that aligns with a bullish outlook on the entire cryptocurrency market.
This perspective stems from the AriasWave methodology, which suggests that correction fractal patterns recur consistently. It ultimately depends on the analyst's open-mindedness to present this possibility, as it's certainly viable.
These are merely preliminary findings leading up to potential actionable trading ideas that I'll continue to share in the future.
PS: It's Gregory Mannarino that says: "This market if a freak show."
Bitcoin's ValueThe crypto market is booming, and experts predict Bitcoin might hit $200k soon.
Recently, BTC crossed $57,000, surprising some traders who expected a dip.
Stock trading remains steady, with investors waiting for Thursday's PCE index report to guide their decisions based on inflation indicators used by the Federal Reserve.
US30 STILL VERY BULLISH (buys from 38500.0 back up)US30 continues to appear bullish to me, and I anticipate a temporary retracement to eventually mitigate the daily demand zone I've identified. Within this zone, there's also an Asian low that I expect to be taken out through a spring from a Wyckoff accumulation.
Once this occurs, price would have reached the refined 10-hour demand zone, where I plan to enter buy positions, potentially leading to a new bullish rally and the creation of new highs. However, I'll be keeping an eye on NFP Friday to see its impact on the Dow Jones, which promises to be interesting!
Confluences for US30 sells are as follows:
- Price has formed a daily demand zone that could cause another bullish rally for us30.
- Trend line liquidity forming just before the demand which I see as a trap for early buyers.
- Liquidity to the upside still left and overall market trend is very bullish.
- Price has broken structure the upside on the higher time frame confirming trend.
P.S. Should price opt to breach the entire daily demand zone during NFP week to eliminate the liquidity beneath it, I anticipate a temporary bearish sentiment, given that it would have violated significant downside structure.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AND BE CAUTIOUS OF NFP FRIDAY!