USStraight forward, this is bullish and has no reason to stop being bullish. HH and HL are the indications of the strength of this trend. Within the channel is where the action is. Current price we bearish.
For now stay away from the trade idea but rather on the movement of price. We melting downwards, which resembles the supply but not the demand because it could still be up. For now hold and wait for consolidation before wanting to enter sells.
LET CONSOLIDATION BE MIMUMUM 5-10 CANDLES, this is a better confluence as this will give us a price squeeze and better direction predictions.
Trade Idea : Buy Limit
SL - 38680
Entry - 38835
TP - 40010
Dowjones
US 30 FALLThe analysis suggests a potential selling opportunity for US 30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) on the daily and 4-hour timeframes.
On the daily timeframe, a selling entry zone is identified between 39,800 to 39,950 points. This range represents a level where significant selling interest has historically emerged, potentially acting as a resistance zone for the index. Traders often look for such areas to initiate short positions, anticipating a downward movement in price from these levels.
Additionally, on the 4-hour timeframe, a fresh selling zone is noted between 39,590 to 39,650 points. This zone represents a recent area where selling pressure has been observed, indicating potential renewed bearish momentum for US 30.
The trading strategy includes setting a target of 130 pips, representing the expected downside movement in US 30 from the identified selling zones. This target suggests the anticipated decrease in price from the entry zones to the desired profit level.
Furthermore, two target prices are set to manage the trade effectively. Setting multiple targets allows traders to lock in profits at different levels and adjust their positions accordingly as the trade progresses.
In summary, the analysis indicates a potential selling opportunity in US 30, with selling entry zones identified on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Traders may consider entering short positions with the expectation of a 130-pip downside movement, aiming to capitalize on the potential price decline from the identified selling zones.
DOW JONES: Short term decline started.Dow Jones is still on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.232, MACD = 275.500, ADX = 55.346) but today's red 1D candle, being the strongest since February 13th, is a first hint that a short term correction is starting. The price has almost made a HH at the top of the 18 month Channel Up, so the probabilities of a technical pullback are getting stronger. Both prior HH touched the 1D MA200 and the middle of the Channel Up. As a result a -6.90% decline (like December 20th 2022) seems a modest target (TP = 37,300) as it will hit the middle of the Channel Up, even approach the S1 level.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Average Price to BuyThe current trading price is above 01/08/21 to current average after news of investors turned their attention to middle east crisis and "Chevron Hauls workers out of Iraq" the follow up on this story will give general consent of investors in the DJI stocks and so far the current price is above Average weighting for this segment, Stop loss for safe investing would be at average price (35233.26833)
The right shoulder of the Dow’s Inv H&S is its own inv h&S!!We are looking at the Dow jones on the daily here and can see 2 distinct inverse head and shoulder patterns have formed here. The larger one I have indicated with a lavender neckline and the smaller one with a green neckline. Price action is currently above both of them and overall this is looking very bullish, however we must remember that the daily timeframe is less effective in traditional stock markets than in the crypto market because the market is much more mature. That being said , I’m pretty certain the larger of the 2 inverse head and shoulder patterns would qualify as a weekly pattern or possibly even a monthly timeframe pattern so if we can get a few weekly and maybe a coupe monthly candle closes above the lavender neckline this will be a very bullish development for the Dow and greatly increase the likelihood of these patterns validating their breakout. For now though, it’s looking awfully ripe. *not financial advice*
Dow Jones getting closer to hitting first inv h&s targetAn update from a previous Dow Jones chart. I will post a link to the previous as well. We are getting very close to the smaller inverse head and shoulders breakout target here. Always a chance it corrects before continuing up to the second larger inv h&s target but then again always a chance it just keeps going to reach the 2nd target without a correction first(less probable) Best to consider both outcomes. *not financial advice*
An update to my Dow Jones chart I posted July 18th 2023The original chart was on a much larger time frame, but we are getting so close to the second measured move target now I figured I’d make this update on the daily chart. We are now about 3 pips away from hitting the 2nd bigger invh&s pattern’s full measured move breakout target. Always amazes me how these things come to fruition, and in this case I was able to predict with macro chart patterns it would reach these heights 7 months before it happens. That’s not to say it wasnt happening this whole time because it essentially was, just had to not fall for the initial break above the necklines and also the follow up break back below the neckline….classic head fakes I expect to see this higher target hit in February, where the market will go from there I’m really not sure..this could indeed be a fulcrum point but it could also behave like solana just recently did and just blast well above the target or after reaching the target continue to pump. Either way I expect this will at least reach within a half pi of the target but think probability is high of it hitting the target 100% still. *not financial advice* I will post a link to the original chart from last July down below. Thanks for reading, following, and rocket boosting my charts. Much respect.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to target is the area of 39297.Dear colleagues, despite the fact that the price is in a downward movement, I believe that the five-wave movement has not been completed. I expect that the price will not update the minimum of wave 4 38463, but will approach it, and then the upward movement in wave 5 will begin. The nearest target is the area of 39297.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DOW JONES: Make or break at the top of the Triangle.Dow Jones rebounded on the 4H MA200 and the HL trendline of the Triangle pattern and turned bullish again on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 61.324, MACD = 179.870, ADX = 45.459). As the 4H MACD is on a Bullish Cross, we have a clear sequence to follow, bullish if it closes over the LH trendline (TP = 39,450) and bearish if it doesn't (TP = 38,700). The targets are the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and the HL trendline respectively. From a fractal point of view, the MACD looks much like the January 19th 2024 bullish breakout.
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What is Dow Theory?The Dow Theory is a financial concept based on a set of ideas from Charles H. Dow‘s writings. Fundamentally, it states that a notable change between bull and bear trend in a stock market will occur when index confirm it.
The trend that is recognized is considered valid when there is strong evidence supporting it. The theory states that if two indicators move in the same way, the primary trend that is identified is genuine.
However, if the two indicators don’t align, then there is no clear trend. This approach mainly focuses on changes in prices and trading volumes. It uses visual representations and compares different indicators to identify and understand trends.
Dow Theory:
The Dow Theory originated from the analysis of market price movements and speculative viewpoints proposed by Charles H. Dow. It served as a fundamental building block for technical analysis, especially in a time when modern software-based technical analysis tools did not exist.
Robert Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” thoroughly explores the evolution and significance of the theory in speculative endeavours, closely examining the Wall Street Journal editorials written by Charles H. Dow and William Peter Hamilton in the 19th century.
This theory represents one of the earliest efforts to comprehend the market by considering fundamental factors that provide insights into future trends.
The main version of the theory primarily focuses on comparing the closing prices of two averages: the Dow Jones Rail (or Transportation) (DJT) and the Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). The premise was that if one average surpassed a specific level, the other average would eventually follow suit. Dow used an analogy to illustrate this concept, likening the market to the ocean.
He explained that just as waves rise to a certain point on one side of the beach, waves on another part of the beach will eventually reach that same point. Similarly, in the market, different sectors are interconnected, and when one sector shows a particular trend, others tend to follow suit as they are part of a larger whole.
The Paradigms of Dow Theory:
To comprehend the theory, it is essential to grasp the various rules formulated by Dow. These principles, often referred to as the tenets of Dow theory, serve as guiding paradigms
Three major market trends:
The tenets of Dow Theory classify trends based on their duration into primary, secondary, and minor trends. Primary trends can be either upward (uptrend) or downward (downtrend) and can last for months to years.
Secondary trends move in the opposite direction to the primary trend and typically last for weeks or a few months. Minor trends, on the other hand, are considered insignificant variations that occur over a shorter time span, ranging from a few hours to weeks, and are considered less significant than the primary and secondary trends.
Primary trends have three distinct phases:
Bear markets can be divided into three distinct phases: distribution, public participation, and panic.
In the distribution phase, there is a gradual selling off of assets by investors.
The public participation phase occurs when more individual investors start selling their holdings, leading to a broader decline in the market.
The panic phase is characterized by widespread fear and selling pressure, often resulting in a sharp and rapid decline in prices.
On the other hand, bull markets experience three phases: accumulation, public participation, and excess.
During the accumulation phase, astute investors start buying assets at lower prices, anticipating an upward trend.
The public participation phase occurs as more investors join the market and buy assets, contributing to the market’s upward momentum.
The excess phase represents a period of exuberance and speculative buying, often marked by overvaluation and unsustainable price increases.
Stock market discount everything:
Market indexes are highly responsive to various types of information. They can reflect the overall condition of an entity or the economy as a whole.
For example, any significant economic events or problems in company management can impact stock prices and cause movements in the indexes, either upward or downward.
Trend confirms with volume:
When there is an uptrend, trading volume rises and decreases while a downtrend starts
Index confirm each other:
When multiple indices move in a consistent manner, following the same pattern, it indicates the presence of a trend.
This alignment among indices provides a strong signal of market direction. However, when two indices move in opposite directions, it becomes challenging to determine a clear trend. In such cases, conflicting signals make it difficult to deduce a definitive market trend.
Trends continue until solid factors imply the reversal:
Traders should be careful of trend reversals, as they can often be mistaken for secondary trends. To avoid this confusion, Dow advises investors to exercise caution and verify trends with multiple sources before considering it a genuine reversal.
How Does Dow Theory Work in Technical Analysis?
The Dow Theory played a crucial role in the development of technical analysis in the stock market and served as its foundational principle. Which, approach to analysis highlights the importance of closely observing market data to identify trends, reversals, and optimal entry and exit points for maximizing profits.
As the market is considered an indicator of future performance, the application of technical analysis based on the Dow Theory helps investors make profitable trading decisions by identifying established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this approach, investors can gain insights into market dynamics and make informed decisions to enhance their trading outcomes.
In conclusion:
The Dow Theory has significantly influenced technical analysis in the stock market, serving as a cornerstone for its development and advancement. By analysing the careful examination of market data, this theory helps traders to identify trends, spot reversals, and determine optimal buy and sell points for maximizing profits.
The market itself is considered a reliable indicator of future performance, and technical analysis aligned with the Dow Theory assists investors in making profitable trading decisions by detecting established long-term, mid-term, or short-term trends. By using this analytical framework, investors can gain valuable insights into market behaviour and make well-informed choices to improve their trading outcomes. The Dow Theory’s enduring impact continues to guide traders in their pursuit of success in the dynamic world of stock market investing.
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XAUUSD - GOLD 1hrSimple trading:
Fibb on impulse
We look to sell gold for a correction. This isn't a trend reversal, just a pull back. Let's take advantage of a potential sell.
Key support areas:
1. Daily support (grey line)
2. Fibb .382
3. Fibb .5
4. Fibb .618
SELL Confirmations:
1. No high higher
2. Weekly Res Confirmed
3. Triangle Break and retest
🔥 XAU/USD - One Target hit, What's Next ? (READ THE CAPTION)Upon a detailed examination of the gold price charts over the 4-hour and weekly time frames, it becomes evident that the market behavior aligned with our initial projections. As the trading week commenced, we observed a decline in gold prices, precisely as anticipated. This downtrend was significant enough to reach our projected target of $2149. Interestingly, the prices underwent a minor correction, dipping slightly to $2146.
Following this correction, the market dynamics shifted when the prices broke below this critical threshold. This breach likely triggered a collection of liquidity, which in turn catalyzed a rebound in prices, resulting in an upward movement. Given these developments and the current market trends, it is reasonable to infer that we may witness a continued decline in gold prices in the near future.
This analysis provides a comprehensive view of the recent fluctuations in gold prices and offers insights into potential future movements. Always remember, the predictions are based on historical data and market trends, and actual future market behavior can vary due to a multitude of factors.
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Best Regards , Arman Shaban
#Bitcoin Intermarket analysisAs you can see in this chart, there is a very interesting relationship between the US100/US500 ratio and Bitcoin.
Before discussing the possible outcomes of this chart, let's gain a better perspective on this intermarket relationship chart. On one hand, we have the US100, which is a technology index divided by the US500, representing the largest US companies. On the other hand, we have Bitcoin represented by the orange line chart.
Observing these two charts together, we notice that they move together most of the time, if not all the time, with occasional instances where one leads and the other follows.
Currently, we can observe that the US100/US500 ratio is on the verge of creating a new low for the first time since the beginning of 2023. If this occurs, I believe it could signal the end of the significant bullish run of Bitcoin.
If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Dowjones Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring US30 for a selling opportunity around 38860 zone, US30 is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 38860 support and resistance area.
We would like to add up to current bullish momentum on the US dollar, usually when the dollar is bullish that put some pressure on indices like Dowjones due to the negative correlation
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES Head and Shoulders formed. Potential visit of Feb lowsDow Jones (DJI) had formed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and ahead of the first 4H Death Cross in 7 months (since August 21 2023), the probability of a short-term correction seems stronger than ever.
Technically H&S patterns target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension but we will settle for a slightly higher target on Support 1 at 38050.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Long to wave 1 top area 39275.89.Dear colleagues, the price has made wave 2 and now I expect the beginning of the movement in wave 3. I assume that the price will rise to the target of the wave 1 top area 39275.89. This is the first minimum target for wave 3.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US30 SELLSUS30 once again had come into the Main 4H & Daily supply zone where I expected rejections. Also 12.30 UK time we had critical new on USD.
I was targeting entry @39235.00 where I entered aggressively with sl@39320.00 (80pts) at 11.30 UK time. Price then came down and broke structure on both 30mins & 1h Once positive USD news was released but then spiked back up to 39247.00 as manipulation but was calm and held.
Aim is to take partial profits at TP
TP1: 39860.00 Tp2: 38500.00 TP3:38300.00