DOW JONES Any pull-back is a short-term buy opportunity.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) is completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern following the recovery of its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the dominant medium-term pattern since the April 19 Low is a Channel Up, any pull-back this short-term IH&S offers, is a technical buy opportunity.
The previous Channel Up Higher Low of May 30 offered one final Higher Low pull-back below the 4H MA50 before the new Bullish Leg started towards the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Check how their 1D RSI fractals are similar among the two sequences.
As a result, once today's Fed euphoria recedes, we expect one last buy opportunity to emerge with a short-term Target of 42000 (top of blue Channel Up), if note higher on the Diverging Channel Up.
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DOW
Combined US equities - D-DayYesterday, the Gap reopened, after an early week stall on Monday. These last two candles have top wicks suggesting selling pressure to keep the gap open. Thing is, I would have preferred to see a more solid down candle.
Meanwhile, this indecision is biased to the downside from indicators and longer term chart (week) point of view. The MACD is in bearish territory and the VolDiv is bearish too. Price has been supported and one of two things will happen:
1. More probable is the volatility spike and markets breakdown fast as they are overdue; or
2. the less likely sudden extreme bullish rally, at the risk of being a blow out top or near term double top for a bigger bolder downside drop in a few months.
Given these, and other supporting charts for a probable downside, I would watch the support breaks very closely.
#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Update #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy#XAU #XAUUSD #GOLD #Update #Short #ShortSetup #Eddy
According to the specific structure of the distribution, it is in the final phase and soon gold will fall to the specified level. (( This analysis is based on supply and demand style as well as Wyckoff and Dow theory. ))
Related Analysis of Gold : (( XAU/USD )) : Check Link :
My Analysis of Dollar : (( XAU/USD )) : Check Link :
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening.
On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc.
So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
DOW JONES Correction isn't over yet. See where to buy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) made initially a direct hit on our July 05 (see 1st chart below) 41000 Target and following the rejection then, is on its way of hitting the 39200 downside Target (July 17, 2nd chart below) as well:
Zooming out to the long-term pattern again after a while, we can still see that the dominant technical structure is a Channel Up that first started on the September 30 2022 inflation crisis bottom.
On the more medium-term, we can isolate a (dashed) Channel Up that started on the April 19 2024 Low. It appears that the current correction is technically its new Bearish Leg. Symmetrically, we should be expecting the new Higher Low to make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our first buy entry.
The second is just below the 0.5 Fibonacci Channel level, which can potentially make near contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a strong long-term Support. That scenario is drawn based on the October 27 2023 bottom which was after a symmetrical correction (-9.25%) with the March 20 2023 bottom. Similarly, the current Bearish Leg could be symmetrical (-6.84%) with the correction that led to the April 18 2024 Low.
For both buy entries, our new long-term Target will be 42400 (Higher High on the medium-term Channel Up).
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US30 - Bearish Momentum Amid Anticipated GDP Data ReleaseTechnical Analysis: US30
Current Outlook:
The price is in a strong bearish trend, with potential targets at 39575 and 39400, particularly if the GDP data exceeds expectations.
Bullish Scenario:
To establish a bullish trend, the price must stabilize above 40060, aiming for 40270 and 40420. An uptrend movement will be likely if the GDP results are lower than expected by approximately 1.4% to 1.6%.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 40060, the bearish trend will persist. For a more precise bearish outlook, the price should stabilize below 39780, targeting 39575 and 39400.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 39945
- Resistance Levels: 40060, 40250, 40420
- Support Levels: 39780, 39575, 39400
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to fluctuate between the support at 39400 and the resistance at 40420.
previous idea:
Bearish Trend Expected Below Key Resistance at 40420Technical Analysis: US30
The price has reached the resistance level of 40420, as mentioned in the previous analysis, and has since dropped, consolidating between 40060 and 40420.
Current Outlook:
The US30 is expected to decline as long as it trades below 40420, targeting 40060. A break below 40060 would suggest a continuation of the bearish trend.
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish trend to be confirmed, the price needs to stabilize above 40420, with confirmation coming from a 4-hour candle closing above this level.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below the resistance line at 40420, it is likely to test 40060. A break below 40060 would indicate a downtrend towards 39790.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 40420
- Resistance Levels: 40640, 40580, 41050
- Support Levels: 40080, 39880, 39600
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 40060 and the resistance at 40650.
Previous Idea:
US30 / Historical Resistance Reached and New All-Time HighTechnical Analysis: Historical Resistance Reached and New All-Time High
As mentioned in the previous analysis, the price has reached the historical resistance level of 41,030, stabilized above it, and recorded a new all-time high of 41,390, continuing its run towards 42,100.
Current Outlook:
The price is expected to correct to 41,030. Stability below this level would indicate a bearish trend. However, as long as the price remains above 41,030, the bullish trend will likely continue towards 42,100, especially with the strong impact of earnings on the market.
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 41,030 suggests a continuation of the bullish trend towards 41,400 and 41,830. There is also the possibility of a retest of the 41,030 level.
Bearish Scenario:
The bearish trend will be activated if the price stabilizes below 41,030 and closes a 4-hour candle under this level. This would confirm a bearish move towards 40,420 and 40,005.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 41,030
- Resistance Levels: 41,390, 41,500, 41,830
- Support Levels: 40,750, 40,450, 40,080
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 40,080 and the resistance at 41,830.
Previous Daily chart:
previous weekly chart :
US30 /Critical Levels & Volume Signal Potential Bullish Breakout Technical Weekly Analysis: US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
A Short Outlook on the Previous Movement:
The US30 has experienced a strong bullish trend, characterized by an ascending trend line that began around early 2023. The price saw significant gains until it reached a resistance level near 40,970.0, where it faced some consolidation and pullbacks. Recently, the price has been trading within a defined range, testing both support and resistance zones.
Current Outlook:
The current price of US30 is around 39,218.5, positioned near a critical pivot zone. The market is showing mixed signals, with potential for both bullish and bearish movements depending on the price action around key levels.
Bullish Scenario:
Key Trigger: A break and sustained move above 40,005.0.
Targets: The immediate target would be the yearly resistance zone at 43,040.0.
Confirmation: The breakout above 39,575, along with strong buying volume, would confirm the bullish continuation towards 40,005 and potentially higher.
Bearish Scenario:
Key Trigger: A failure to break above the pivot zone and a decline below the demand zone at 38,700.0.
Targets: The price could drop towards the strong support zone at 36,460.0, and further down to 34,430.0 if bearish momentum continues.
Confirmation: Sustained selling pressure and a close below 38,700 would confirm the bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 39,218.5
Resistance Levels: 40,005.0, 40,970.0, 43,040.0 (Yearly Resistance Zone)
Support Levels: 38,700.0 (Demand Zone), 36,460.0 (Strong Support Zone & Breakout), 34,430.0
Expecting Weekly Range Movement:
- The anticipated weekly range is between the support at 38,700.0 and the resistance at 40,970.0. A breakout in either direction would define the next significant move.
Preferred Direction:
- Given the strong historical bullish trend and the proximity to the pivot zone, the preferred direction leans towards bullish if the price can break and sustain above 40,005.0. However, caution is advised as the market could still face significant resistance.
Summary:
The US30 is currently at a critical juncture. A breakout above 40,005.0 would confirm a bullish continuation towards the yearly resistance zone at 43,040.0, while a failure to break this level and a decline below 38,700.0 would signal a bearish move towards 36,460.0 and potentially 34,430.0. Traders should closely monitor the price action around these key levels to determine the next major trend.
DOW JONES Top of its Channel. Sell opportunity.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 41000 Target as projected on our last analysis (July 10, see chart below) and reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The Bullish leg competed a rise around the same levels as the previous one (7.87% against 7.65%), so we can assume the symmetry will continue to shape within this pattern and affect the Bearish Legs too.
The previous Bearish Leg made a -5.14% decline. Our Target is 39200, marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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Dow Jones Sustains Growth: Short-Term Bullish Strategies in PlayDuring the Wednesday session in London, the Dow Jones continued its upward trajectory. After experiencing a pullback at the $39,000 mark, the price resumed its ascent, forming a bullish candle. Our analysis suggests that the price is likely to continue rising until it reaches the Supply area, where we anticipate a potential correction.
In the meantime, we are focusing on short-term positions on lower timeframes to capitalize on this bullish continuation. These positions are aimed at taking advantage of the ongoing upward momentum as the price approaches the Supply area. By carefully monitoring the market and adjusting our strategies accordingly, we aim to maximize our gains from this bullish trend before any potential reversal occurs.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 39,059.Dear Colleagues, in general I see that the price will still rush upwards, because now the wave "3" of higher order is developing.
But I believe that now there will be a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level (39,059) in wave "2".
But before this correction, I believe that the price will complete a 5-wave movement in lower waves.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US30 - Dow Buy OpportunityThe Dow Jones (US30) has reached a critical support zone, aligning with an support trend line. This confluence of support provides a strong foundation for a potential upward move. If the price holds above this zone, we can expect a rise towards the resistance. Traders should watch for bullish signals and consider long positions with appropriate risk management strategies.
DOW JONES Looking to break above the 3-month Triangle.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been consolidating within an Ascending Triangle since the April 01 High and recently is being supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 17.
As long as it continues to hold, there are higher probabilities to finally break above the Triangle's top (Resistance 1). If it does, the pattern will transition into a Channel Up that will aim for a new Higher High.
The first Bullish Leg extended to as high as +7.52%. The 1.382 Fibonacci extension is technically the break-out target on these occasions, so our Target is in the middle of those levels at 41000.
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DOW JONES All patterns pointing to a bullish break-out.We have seen today's pattern on one of our previous analyses (June 14, see chart below) but on the 1W time-frame:
Today we make some slight modifications as we view it on the short-term 1D time-frame. Dow Jones (DJI) continues to replicate the sequence of February 14 2023 - May 30 2023 and following the latest 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, is ready to break above the (bold dashed) Ascending Triangle.
As you can see there is so far high symmetry between the two patterns. The 2023 one made a Higher High following the Triangle break-out on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. It had two identical Bullish Legs since that Low.
As a result, we are targeting at least 41000 on the medium-term, which is tightly located within the 1.382 Fib and a symmetrical +7.50% Bullish Leg.
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DOW JONES is on an expansion phase until late 2025.Dow Jones (DJI) closed the 2nd straight green month (1M candle), something that isn't discussed a lot amidst the pessimistic views lately across the market. Technically, since the bounce on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the index entered a new Expansion Leg inside the Channel Up that started after the 2008 Housing Crisis.
Each Bullish Leg has been so far more aggressive than the previous but even if Dow repeats the 'weakest' one, we will still look for a +75.32% rise since the September 2022 bottom. This translates into a long-term Target of 50000, which can extend as long as late 2025.
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US30 - 15m Buy scalpThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is currently on an upward trajectory, showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute chart. As it continues to rise, it is approaching a key resistance zone that has previously served as a turning point. Traders should watch this level closely, as the price may test and react to this resistance, potentially leading to a breakout or a consolidation phase. This anticipated rise towards the resistance zone signals a pivotal moment for US30's short-term direction, providing opportunities for strategic entries and exits based on price action around this area.
Volatility Expected Between Key Support and Resistance LevelTechnical Analysis: US30
The price has reversed from the resistance line at 39575 and has now reached a strong support line. Consequently, significant volatility is expected as the price oscillates between 39045 and 39410, a notably wide range.
Current Outlook:
The price is likely to touch 39045 before potentially pushing up again. Both scenarios should be carefully considered:
Bullish Scenario:
Stability above 39230 suggests a move towards 39410. However, if the price reaches the support line at 39045, it must stabilize above this level to maintain a bullish trend.
Bearish Scenario:
A bearish trend would be confirmed if the price breaks below 39045, targeting 38790, and potentially dropping further from there.
Key Levels:
- **Pivot Line:** 39230
- **Resistance Levels:** 39400, 39575, 39780
- **Support Levels:** 39045, 38790, 38600
### Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 38790 and the resistance at 39410.
In summary, maintaining stability above the pivot line at 39230 is crucial for a bullish outlook, with targets at 39410. Conversely, a break below 39045 would signal a bearish trend with a downside target at 38790.
US30 Poised for Bullish Surge: Key Levels and Scenarios to WatchTechnical Analysis: US30
After stabilizing above the pivotal zone at 39,410, the price has shifted towards a bullish trend. It appears poised for a retest of the 39,410 level, after which it is expected to resume its upward movement, provided it maintains stability above this pivot.
Current Outlook:
The price will likely attempt a retest of around 39,400. Should it stabilize above this price, the bullish trend is expected to continue.
Bullish Scenario:
Sustained stability above 39,410 will bolster the bullish trend, potentially driving the price towards 39,575, and further to 39,780.
Bearish Scenario:
A bearish trend would be confirmed if the price breaks below 39,410 and 39,350, with targets at 39,230 and 39,045.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 39,410
- Resistance Levels: 39,575, 39,780, 40,050
- Support Levels: 39,230, 39,045, 38,790
Today's Expected Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at 39,360 and the resistance at 39,790.
US30 Reaches Target, Eyes Key Support and Resistance LevelsTechnical Analysis: US30
The price has reached our target of 39360 after stabilizing above the previous support line at 39045.
Current Outlook:
The price may attempt a retest toward 39045 but should stabilize below 39400 and 39360.
Bullish Scenario:
For a bullish trend, the price needs to break above 39410, aiming for targets of 39575 and 39780.
Bearish Scenario:
Stability below 39360 will support a bearish trend toward 39230, and further decline to 39045.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 39360 - 39410
- Resistance Levels: 39575, 39780, 40050
- Support Levels: 39230, 39045, 38790
Today's Expected Range:
The price is expected to move between the support at 39045 and the resistance at 39575.
previous idea: