DOW JONES most likely topped at least short-termIt has been almost 6 weeks since Dow Jones (DJI) broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year and the beginning of the 2022 correction. At the same time it broke above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which as we've mentioned numerous times was the barrier for a long-term bullish trend restoration:
As the price was basically rejected on the 34300 Resistance 1 (August 16 High), we can argue that the October - November rally has come to an end, with the price breaking below the Rising Wedge, while also the MACD on the 1D time-frame completed a Bearish Cross (red arrows). Unlike the previous counter trend rallies within the Bearish Megaphone, this time we may have the luxury to expect only a short-term pull-back, and not a new long-term selling sequence to a new market low.
As you see, we were correct for calling the area within the 34300 Resistance and the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the former Bearish Megaphone, a 'No trade Zone'. A potential Support (and bounce point) can be that Lower Highs trend-line itself and if broken, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is traditionally the first Support during long-term uptrends. All this of course, assuming that the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is supporting now, breaks. If not, we can see one last attempt to break and close above Resistance 1 (34300) and target Resistance 2 (35550).
On a side note, see how the 1D RSI has been printing a Top formation similar to late March - early April. Also the November 25 top came exactly 234 days after the October 02 Low, which is symmetrical to February - April.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DOW
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , demonstrating a bullish market. Looking for a buy stop entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 28
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 NOV 28
Scenario1 continuation long was in place from Nov 07's analysis.
Weakness are appearing on all timeframes. Tighten stops on
long positions. Volume was thin due to US holidays. Expected
to remain thin as year end approaches.
Possible scenarios:
1) Temporary short if 34246-33800 is rejected
2) Stay out of market since volume is thin
3) Continuation long if 34246-33800 is supported
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35330 34246-33800
33106 31793
30513 28635
Weekly: ND on uptrend = minor weakenss
Daily: Declining volume + narrow spreads = weakness
H4: Supply observed
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW JONES doing what it has always done through history. Rising.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) on the log scale since the great depression of the 1930s. A lot of talk is being done lately on whether or not this recent rally is sustainable, or if the high inflation can cause a deeper correction etc. In order to put things into perspective it is always useful to look into the longer term charts, preferably on a multi-year horizon.
This is on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where we've applied the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement levels on this 90 year price action. It is easy to realize that the Fibonacci levels have historically created zones of Support and Resistance. Right now, and despite the 2022 correction (Bear Market), Dow is within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fib, which is part of the larger 0.382 - 0.618 Fib Zone, which we call "Healthy Bull Zone" as when the index stays within it, it tends to rise on healthy growth levels.
To make things more interesting, Dow's early January top (All Time High) and subsequent rejection was made exactly on the 0.618 Fib. It shouldn't be a surprise that the recent October low and the subsequent rebound was made on the 0.5 Fib. This is a Support trend-line that 2017 only broke once during the 2020 COVID crash (which remarkably touched the 0.382 Fib and rebounded). In this 5 years Dow has been rising sustainably within this tight top half of the Healthy Bull Zone.
In fact, when the index trades within two levels tightly, it tends to do so for a very long time. Such periods are indicated by the blue ellipse patterns and besides the 2017 - 2022 one, we can see another 6 major periods.
As a result we can argue that right now Dow Jones is doing "what it always done through history" and that is rise sustainably within a tight Fibonacci zone long-term. This makes the index as bullish as it ever was.
Some added facts on this Channel. As you see we've categorized the zones based on the likely outcome they can provide. Next to the Healthy Bull Zone we see the Oversold (0.382 - 0.236 Fib) and Overbought (0.618 - 0.786 Fib) Zones, which is where the index presents a rare buy and sell opportunity respectively. In fact the 2008 Housing Crisis put us in an oversold position most recently and before that it was the 1987 Black Monday event. At the top of the Channel we have the 0.786 - 1.0 Fib 'Collapse Zone', where a mega collapse event is likely, and the index has only been there at the height of trading before the Great Depression. At the bottom of the Channel we have the 0.236 - 0.0 Fib 'Once in a life time buy opportunity Zone', which as you can imagine is the extremely oversold region where Dow has historically been the most attractive level to buy. The very bottom (March 2009) of the Housing Crisis marginally pierced through and before that (again marginally) the 1987 Black Monday.
** It is worth noting that from 1974 to 1986, the market traded almost entirely within this extremely oversold Fib zone. It was when the U.S. were ravaged by extremely high inflation levels (aftermath of the Vietnam war among others), with many sceptics today comparing the present day to that era.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
dowjones 4hour : all scenario on dow 1-70% go down and touch support and go up to fibo161
2-30% go down break support and go downer
above green arrow after pinbar come on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart we must buy Sl: pinbar low and hold to new high ok?
if you have old sell,you must close all or hedge them in fibo50 33760-33770...dont forget dow,index, dax sp500 and gold love buy and uptrend so sell on them is very very dangerous..check weekly chart exactly
note: as predict 10 days ago in low dow can go to 35000 even 3600 so be careful from sell and 90% looking for buy
ALERT: END OF YEAR UP TREND RALLY ON INDEX LIKE DAX NASDAQ SP500 AND DOW CAN START
good luck
DOW WOWHonestly can't believe I've missed this 20% dow rally. I had the bottom drawn up was so many technicals here to create a bounce but I wasn't monitoring it at the time and its lead to this EPIC rally over the past month. the bottoms clearly in for now. I expect a pul back soon but im not expecting it to go any lower. in my opinion the bottom is in and the fed pivot looks like its being priced in
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation The overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, demonstrating a bullish market. Looking for an immediate buy entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located, The previous swing high, or 35492.22, will serve as the take-profit point.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Continuation | 24th November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish . Furthermore, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating that the market is bullish . Looking for an immediate buy entry at 34106.01, where the previous swing high is. I have set a relative safe stop loss at 33063.05, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index UpdateFirst, we look at the trade idea I just published for the SPX as these two are closely related.
S&P 500 Index Update
We can see all the same signals...
These things they move in exactly the same way.
Just like Bitcoin and Ethereum (the "Merge"), the same goes for the SPX and DJI.
We have the major downtrend which has already been broken here.
So my speculation about the SPX upward corrention to prolong/go higher is true/possible, as it will follow the DJI.
We can see the DJI having a very strong bullish bias on the daily timerame already trading above MA200 and EMA300.
The next resistance here is showing as the August 2022 high/peak price.
We already see the DJI stopping short of this level today.
If this resistance can be conquered, the doors open for 35,400+ which at the same time tells us that the SPX can also grow.
Now, we see a divergence happening with the RSI, bearish divergence and we also see a potential for a sudden drop.
The weekly and monthly timeframes are full bullish.
The bulls have definitely the upper hand here...
The August 2022 resistance will be the next decision point.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
DOW JONES Too close to the August 16 High!It has been almost 2 weeks since Dow Jones (DJI) broke above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone pattern that it has been trading in since the start of the year and the beginning of the 2022 correction. At the same time it broke above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), which as we've mentioned numerous times was the barrier for a long-term bullish trend restoration:
The index is now very close to making another major bullish break-out as it is very close to the 34300 Resistance (1) which was formed by the August 16 High, which was rejected on the (former) Lower Highs trend-line and 1D MA300. If broken it will be the first time in 2022 that Dow Jones will break a Lower High. In this case, we will automatically target 35550 (Resistance 2), which was formed by the April 21 (Lower) High.
If the price gets rejected though, the index should seek the short-term Supports of 1) the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which during the July - August and March - April counter rallies was the supporting level (when broken, the downtrends started) and 2) the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which held as Support for the first time in a year on November 10. Keep in mind that during Dow's bull rallies, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is typically the Support.
On the downside, watch the 1W RSI, which has been glued to the top of the Channel Up in the past two weeks. Failure to break above it, should accelerate the sell sentiment towards the 1D MA50. The trigger for that can be a Bearish Cross on the 1D MACD, which is very close to be formed. All prior Bearish Cross in 2022 have kickstarted major sell-offs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where 2 of the 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. I am looking to take profit at 35411.35, where the previous swing high, 78.6% Fibonacci line and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 23rd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish , with price above the Ichimoku cloud . However, we intend to make use of the pullback. As a result, price has tapped into our sell entry at 34281.36, which is the previous swing high as well as the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at the previous swing high of 35492.22. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dow Jones: Down UnderAfter moving sideways for a while, we're expecting Dow Jones to drop into the orange target zone between 32 762 and 31 980 points to complete wave iv in orange in order to push the trend back up to the orange target zone between 34 305 and 35 466 points. After managing to pull itself up there to compete wave (i) in blue, we expect the course to drop back South.
In our alternative scenario, Dow Jones can't turn the trend up this early and continues to drop below the support line at 31 738 points. After crossing this mark, the course should sink further into the blue zone between 31 331 and 29 789 points until wave alt. (iii) in blue hits its low before turning back up to move North. blue hits its low before turning back up to move North.
DJI Potential For Bullish RiseOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 32818.16, where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where 2 of the 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. I am looking to take profit at 35411.35, where the previous swing high, 78.6% Fibonacci line and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 22nd November 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish, with price above the Ichimoku cloud. However, we intend to make use of the pullback. As a result, we're looking for a sell entry at 34281.36, which is the previous swing high as well as the 78.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at the previous swing high of 35492.22. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bullish. To add confluence to this, price is above the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bullish market. Looking for a buy at 32818.16, where the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci lines are located. Stop loss will be set at 31711.78, slightly below where 2 of the 38.2% Fibonacci lines are located. I am looking to take profit at 35411.35, where the previous swing high, 78.6% Fibonacci line and -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line are located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 21st November 2022The overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bullish, with price being above the Ichimoku cloud/ However, we intend to utilize the pullback. So we're looking for a sell entry at 34281.36 , where the previous swing high and the 78.6% Fibonacci line are. The stop loss will be set at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is. The take profit will be set at 32135.41, which is where 61.8% Fibonacci line is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOWJONES 4hour : be careful from sell , upper target is 360002 scenario on dow possible
1- if it can break high door will open to 36000
2-in bad scenario with bad news it can go down to fibo50 then start wave2 of uptrend WE MUST BUY IT ABOVE GREEN ARROW AFTER PINBAR APPEAR IN 1HOUR,4HOUR,DAILY CHART and hold it 7-8 day to 36000 area
if you have old sell, close them soon as soon or hedge them with higher size: 1.5*total sell size
ALERT : NEW YEAR WILD RALLY CAN START SO DONT PICK SELL ,LOOKING FOR BUY dont forget like gold DOW love buy and upside trend
good luck
SPX / ES - Get Ready for a Head Fake, and an OpportunityIn my recent calls, I have made predictions for Apple to set new all time highs, Tesla to print at least $250 again, and Nasdaq to 14,000.
However, whenever price action fails to follow suit with expectations, one must revise, revise, and revise again the situation at hand.
With this week's price action topping on Tuesday after what should have been a significant bull catalyst in the lower CPI print, causing SPX and Nasdaq to go as wild as the Dow has, it can only be ascertained that the makers not only do not want to go higher, but are likely to head lower, and they'll be in a hurry.
I have been simultaneously conflicted by the fact that I do expect SPX and Nasdaq to run to their COVID lows with the fact that there isn't any news primed until December and timing is awkward with the next FOMC being a month away and US Thanksgiving being late next week.
There's a significant fractal from June daily bars that's very similar to where we're at now, where we ultimately made the Low of the Year, which held until September, and then October.
The problem is that everyone is expecting a dump, because although there really isn't any fear and nobody is actually positioned bearishly, the sentiment is still bearish.
I said on Twitter the other day after hearing that Michael J. Burry from Big Short 2008 GFC fame said "You have no idea how short I am," that these types of guys are allowed to tell you what is going to happen, but not when it is going to happen or where it is going to happen.
They're allowed to speak the truth insofar as it makes retail offside.
If they were to really reveal the truth that they know, they would disrupt the markets and their access to credit facilities and swap lines would be revoked.
What I mean by the above is that for retail, you're going to be baited into going hard on puts and shorts, but this isn't yet the moment of impact everyone who believes interest rates and recessions mean SPX 2,000 straight line no bounce have been waiting for.
Meanwhile, although the VIX isn't showing much in the way of signs of life, the put to call ratio is as high as it's been since 2008 quietly starting around Wednesday. The US Dollar Index has also started to show poppyness after running a key low.
Signals are great, but price action has to confirm, and as of now, it indicates that the indexes and stocks do not want to trade higher.
Thus, what I believe and am expecting to happen is that indeed we do dump, and violently, and fast. It is imminent. Perhaps as early as Sunday futures open.
It will be scary. However, what I think is that the dump will really be a bear trap. It won't go as low and it won't stay as dipped as everyone is expecting. When it starts to bounce, it will bounce a lot, and hard, and catch people off guard.
This time, there won't be a retrace.
Thus, what I am anticipating is for the SPX to print at least a low 3,600s tape. More likely, I believe SPX will actually trade back toward 3,500, but not take the low out.
What I want to tell everyone is this: You need to stop listening to the Stocktwits and the Twitter and the Discord and the WhatsApp feeds. You need to unfollow these guys that are filling your head with notions about interest rates and yield curves.
The more you fill yourself with those concepts, the more you will be manipulated into trapping yourself offside and the more you will be unable to take advantage of the real move.
The more you will blow your accounts.
The reason is, there is a logic behind why bear markets rally so hard. A bearish market rallies, simply put, because smart money doesn't sell low like you do. They sell high.
So they sell high, buy back low, sell high, buy back low, and the market has to be engineered around this, or they won't participate, because losing money means death.
The next bear market rally is going to be like 40%, and it's going to be rather impressive. Bears will be so angry, not realizing that the rally's climax is the "Big Short" they've long been awaiting.
Allow me to issue my own "Cassandra": Be warned, for when all the stocks and the indexes are high again, the day the Chinese Communist Party will be thrown out from this world is during Beijing time, not New York time. It will happen in the middle of the North American's night.
It will catch very literally almost everyone off guard. The limit down when the NYSE opens that day will be 15% on indexes and it won't be the bottom, it won't bounce.
That day is very close. Nobody expected the USSR to fall, and yet Gorbachev and friends threw it away anyways.
China's traditional 5,000 year dynasty culture is mankind's only hope for a future, and it will absolutely be not only preserved, but resurrected.