YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 01
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 JAN 01
Welcome us to 2023. Wishing you much trading success
for the new year and great health!
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on rejection at 34607 / 32789
2) Long if supported at 30513 / 28635
Weekly: Low vol down bar close at middle = indecisive
Daily: Low vol down bar close toward high = No Supply
H4: High vol up bar closed at high = demand
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 35330 34605-34283
33455 32789 30513
28635
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Have a profitable week ahead.
DOW
DJI still bearishIn our view, DJI remains bearish .
What we can see on a chart is a potential deviation in a well-defined downtrend .
RSI looks weak and remains in a downtrend.
As we're bearish on other major idicies such as SPX:
We expect that DJI will continue going down.
Long-term targets and potential path for DJI are shown on the chart.
Good luck
DOW JONES Will it invalidate the 2022 bearish fractal?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been stuck within a Triangle pattern (dashed lines) since it hit and bounced on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20 but has a clear rejection on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance. At the same time we can also see that the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) has also resumed its old role as a Resistance, having kept the index below it form April 22 to November 10 earlier this year.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is now the pivot but technically in 2022 when it broke as Support, Dow kickstarted major sell-offs. Both on April 22 and August 28, the major sell-off were confirmed and Dow extended the selling to a new market (Lower) Low.
This is however the first time since December 20 2021, so basically a whole year, that the 1D MA200 is acting as a Support. At the same time, the RSI on the 1D time-frame is more similar to the May 20 and September 27 lows.
As a result we have technical proof to believe that as long as the 1D MA200 holds, Dow Jones has more probabilities to attempt a test on the 34300 former Resistance (August 16 High) and then move for the 34910 December 13 High. Closing above the 4H MA100 will confirm this move.
A closing below the 1D MA200 however has more chanced of testing the 31725 (Support 1) and 30100 (Support 2) levels successively.
Notice how proportional the Bottom-to-Top and Top-to-Bottom sequences have been since the February 24 Low. If the symmetry continues to hold and of course assuming Dow breaks below the 1D MA200, the next low should be around early February 2023.
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33498.93, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is to form a triple top retail formation . Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Classic bull flag setupEverything is in the chart.. classic bull flag setup on $ulta. Financials are great, EPS is solid, basically recession-proof at the moment.
CALLS idea - wait til retest of 410-420 and grab $500 calls 2 months out.
PUTS idea - wait til top of channel is hit then grab 430 puts 1 month out.
This is not financial advice, just for fun!
BITCOIN has always started a rally when Dow did this.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) against Bitcoin (BTCUSD) illustrated by the black trend-line. Every since September and the touch of its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), Dow has been rallying, having recovered more than 50% of the 2022 losses.
With regards to Bitcoin, perhaps the most important development is that Dow is rebounding after its 2M RSI bounced off the Support that is holding for more than 10 years (since 2011). This level has always started BTC's strong rally within Dow's Secular Macro Bull Cycle (SMBC). At the same time the LMACD made a Bullish Cross shortly after. Right now the indicator is close to making the first Bullish Cross since October 2020.
Is this time different?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33498.93, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Dow Jones Index retrace?In weekly chart, Index potentially stopped dropping when it was supported by the green band. It break out the downtrend line, should be the 1st step of principle of 123.
Index potential to have a retrace in weekly chart again, if it form the higher low in future, then it is the step 2 of principle 123.
Refer to daily chart, TD sequential 13 show the rebound could be almost exhaust, and the GDMM is at high risk position. If index drop below the low of TD13, the next support is approximate 32000.
Since there is no good chance to buy at this condition, better wait the result of US election patiently.
DJ30 - Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.DJ30 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 32824 (stop at 32600)
Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 32824-33421. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We have a 61.8% Fibonacci pullback level of 32821 from 32439 to 33439. Preferred trade is to buy on dips.
Our profit targets will be 33421 and 33779
Resistance: 33422 / 33779 / 334425
Support: 32824 / 32653 / 32439
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33418.59, where the previous low is. Stop loss will be at 33899.17, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 32485.23, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Three Sell Signals on the DJIFor the past year the Runner Bot SELL Signal has been on point for DJI on the H4 timeframe. If this rollover of strength from the Bulls continues we are looking at revisiting the $30,000 Support Block for this move.
- Bullish Candle Color rotation to weakness.
- RSI X Colors rotation to weakness.
- Runner Bot firing off a TOP signal (sign of weakness).
- Last Support Pivot is at $32,300.
Thank you and let me know if you have any questions!
Selling DJ30 - Where is the Santa rally?!DJ30 - Intraday - We look to Sell at 33080 (stop at 33480)
4 negative daily performances in succession. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. 33080 has been pivotal. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. Bespoke support is located at 31450.
Our profit targets will be 31450 and 28928
Resistance: 33080 / 33432 / 34397
Support: 31450 / 29294 / 28928
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
How to use HIGH IMPACT NEWS as a confluence!During deflation investors prioritize investment-grade bonds, defensive stocks (those of consumer goods companies), dividend-paying stocks, and cash.
Current asset flows, including the slide in oil indicates this regime allocation is in play (see attached image - below)
In terms of XAU:
- It has already been repriced higher after less-hawkish comments from Powell. The new rate of change (lower) can now be established for the overall down trend
- Going into DEFLATION, your gold is likely to be “deflate” in price because the logic is: hard times cause people to sell their assets (gold, silver etc.) to make ends meet
- There is a greater incentive for people who understand what's happening (like us!) to shot XAU at these higher prices or get in cash/bonds in order to buy the dip in equities down the road once Fed policy actually hints towards loosening.
The current narrative around interest rates is “higher for longer” = still no signal they will stop hiking which = it's still valid to look for shorts on XAU and stocks
40 Bar Cycle Chart - Dow Jones DIA DJIA - Updated 121722This last week, markets initially rallied on the release of the "cooler" than expected November CPI (Consumer Price Index) — only to be smacked back to reality on the comments via Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell during the December Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) meeting this last Wednesday as "higher for longer" is the communicated pathway forward for the FED and financial markets.
Whether this is all talk to put some intentional downward pressure on markets, as financial conditions have eased as of late — or this is the actual pathway forward and the bond markets are mis-pricing the projected Terminal FFR (Fed Funds Rate, now >5% into 23'), some indicators such as our (40-Bar Cycle Chart) 📉 are highlighting what is likely another leg down in financial assets as QT ramps up and higher interest rates take their toll on real economic activity. Keep in mind that behind the scenes, the FED in coordination with the U.S. Treasury are working their magic 🧙🏼♂️🔮 in terms of FED Net Liquidity to keep things "(dis)orderly".
Here is the updated 40-Bar Cycle Chart for DIA DJIA, which seems to be sitting on some major support. Given the structure of the markets after losing the $330 DIA / $33,000 DJIA, along with J. Powell and other FED speaker comments post-FOMC on Friday, is the hopes for a year-end 🎅 🎄 rally wishful thinking?
DIA Daily Chart Template
www.tradingview.com
Which camp are you in on the short-term (end of year into Q1/23') direction of markets?
Camp A: We are likely we headed for new lows in Q1/23 (Fluctuating Inflation + Persistent Price/Wage Pressures + Hawkish FED).
Camp B: We are likely to break the downtrend into the start of Q1/23' (Peak Inflation + Deflationary Forces + Dovish FED).
Let me know your prediction in the comments below! 👇🏼
DOW JONES Can the 1st Golden Cross since Aug 2020 save the day?Yes the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) formed a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame (1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossing above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line)) for the first time since August 05 2020 (!) with the price approaching today the 1D MA50, the closest it has been since October 24. Can this provide Support and save the day for Dow preventing it from having a similar sell-off as in August - September and May - April?
Well we have to look at it step by step. As long as the price closes daily above the 1D MA50, we have a positive sign that the market treats it as Support. At the same time closing above the former Lower Highs trend-line (since the January 04 High) puts additional buying pressure. That will help at forming a Megaphone pattern (green dashed lines), which can be the necessary transition tool that offers the needed pull-back on profit taking and takes the index into the new Bull Phase.
At the same time keep an eye on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which was previously the Resistance of most of the 2022 correction and made the August 16 rejection. Prior to the 2022 correction, the 1W MA50 has been the absolute Support of the 2021 rally. If all the above keep supporting, we can expect Dow to test the 35550 (April 21 High) Resistance by the end of January.
On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA200 will most likely initiate a sell-off that will reach at least as low as the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels, similar to what happened in September and April.
Additionally, the RSI on the 1W time-frame got rejected on the Higher Highs trend-line that since February has caught all major peaks. It can be used as a very effective buy indicator as well as its Higher Lows trend-line has also caught all major Lows since May 23. On a side-note, this 1W RSI Channel Up can be a major bullish divergence signifying the trend change to long-term bullish.
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33418.59, where the previous low is. Stop loss will be at 33899.17, where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 32485.23, where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy entry at 33987.06, where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Stop loss will be placed at 34595.51, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line and previous low are. Take profit will be at 35411.35, where the previous swing high is located.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DOW JONES Has the narrative changed to bullish?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has entered into a new short-term pattern on the 4H time-frame, a Bullish Megaphone. The 4H MA100 (green trend-line) is the pivot right in the middle of it and the short-term Support is the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line), once a long-term Resistance which rejected the previous High on August 16.
Almost two months ago with our October 20 analysis, we argued why the trend has changed to bullish and if Dow broke above the 1D MA300, it would restore it on the long-term as well:
Is that still the case? In our view yes, especially when we see formerly bearish patterns on the 1D RSI and MACD indicators, turned to bullish. As you see we are at a point on the 1D RSI (blue circle) where the price was already below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on April 26 and with the 4H MA100 as the Resistance was trending downwards. Same with the 1D MACD, which is so far ignoring the Bearish Cross. So instead of those indicators turning the price bearish, we are above the 1D MA300 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) within a Bullish Megaphone. The once bearish narrative seems to have changed to bullish.
So what now? The 1D Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200) is the first such bullish formation since August 05 2020, back in the period when Dow Jones was recovering from the COVID pandemic crash. This means that as long as the 1D MA50/200 Support, we can buy the pull-backs and gradually target new Highs. Our next target is the 35550 (April 21 High) Resistance. Only break below the 1D MA50 and subsequent rejection upon testing it as a Resistance, will be a bearish signal, potentially going all the way back to 29000.
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** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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You may also TELL ME 🙋♀️🙋♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁
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