DOW JONES: Rejection on the 4H MA50 keeping it neutralDow Jones found Support on the S1 Zone as we called last week (see idea at the end) and closed 4 straight candles inside it. The 1D time-frame remains technically red (RSI = 37.784, MACD = -381.660, ADX = 48.656) and the rejection on the 4H MA50 is keeping the price at bay. This appears to be like the rejection on December 21st 2022, which kept the price inside an Ascending Triangle before a rise to the top of the Channel Down. We will maintain our bullish persctive within this patternand target P1 (TP = 33,450).
Prior call:
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DOW
Buying power of Gold, measured in Dow Stock Market unitsGold priced in dow, 100 years plus.
If gold was a stock, would you buy low? asking for a friend.
Historically, this ratio has market relative highs in lows and captured conditions of money system.
When the debt based system bottlenecks and needs more money, gold is repriced.
Gold doesnt do anything. the dollar is the culprit.
The dollar matrix is real. Go watch that movie again but think in a dollar matrix as an energy zapper.
Enjoy the nightmares.
DOW JONES is forming a bottom, aiming at the 1D MA50 again.Dow Jones (DJI) is trading sideways for the 4th straight 1D candle on the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the long-term Channel Down. As the 1D RSI touched the 30.00 oversold level and rebounded, similar to the September 27 bottom, while the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) crossed below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) to form the 1st Bearish Cross since that bottom, we treat this as a strong medium-term buy opportunity, targeting the 1D MA50 and 33100. We need a closing above the 1D MA50 to justify further uptrend as that level rejected the index on March 06.
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DJI - World's End Scenario - short to 200 MMARevisiting this scenario where 1929 style crash fractal is overlayed with current market structure.
It was just an excercise and not a prediction but having reviewed the data again and considered Robert Prechter's Fibonacci predictions about the end of Super Cycle wave 5 I am giving it another chance with a speculative short.
The short initiate at break of support and will initially act as a hedge to target the 200 Monthly MA / $18k (50% drawdown). Stop at $35,500 (3%)
Best, Hard Forky
The scenario set out last year with some minor corrections breaks down as follows:
- Monthly Chart, 200 Monthly MA
- Crash time frame in 1929 to 1932 lasted about 3 years - Today I would estimate this as 10 year period based on the fractal .
Interesting outcomes from the experiment assuming the DJI has topped:
- DRAWDOWN: 1929-1932 drawdown was 90% setting market back 14 years. From Point A to C, this will take us to $3,500. That sets us back by 25 years (no clear correlation).
- FRACTAL: The fractal is close to the present day formation assuming the DJI has topped out (close correlation).
- MA: The MA is pacing at a relatively similar trajectory - from the touch in 2009 to today's position at $18,000. Coincidently $18,000 is the bottom of the March 2020 crash at point B. (Interesting coincidence)
- SUPPORT: The immediate crash period from point A to Point B would take place around (correction) Feb/March 23
- BEARISH DIVERGENCE : The RSI structure is very similar on lead up and localised formation, (correction) with an uptick in RSI on the retrace. In 2020 we had the covid pandemic which delivered the recent low point on the RSI but the 1929 has the same structure, just a more stable price. Can we trust the 1929 data? (coincidence)
- TRADING: Whilst a crash of this magnitude would require some form of major catalyst destroying a generation of wealth, it offers amazing trading conditions both long and short for swing traders on longer timeframes. There are about 6 swing long opportunities during the 10 year crash, each lasting over 1 year and offering 40-50% upside
Is it likely, of course not. It's only happened once in a century :)
Is it possible, well it has happened before :)
... hmm, that bearish divergence don't look good... it might be time to look at shorts again?
Best, Hard Forky
DJI - World's End Scenario
To everything there is a season ...To everything there is a season ... a time to cast away stones and a time to gather them ...
Stock markets do not need a great economic environment to rise noticeably.
When reality succeeds in outperforming low expectations, a sustainable tailwind is created.
In this sense, the MSCI World Index managed to deliver a very good start to the year despite mixed data.
Given the abundant evidence that equity markets are "ahead" of the reportings, earnings performance is useless as an indicator of upcoming equity market performance.
Equity markets look ahead and price in the likely future of the next 3 to 30 months.
And as long as the "pessimism of disbelief" influences investor sentiment, equity markets will continue to receive tailwinds in the form of positive surprises.
Already at the beginning of 2023, the stock markets sent the first signals that the accumulated pessimism from 2022 was slowly subsiding.
As a rule, a sceptical phase follows, which may well last longer - and gives the stock markets a good chance to rise sustainably.
As long as expectations remain low, reality can surprise positively without much effort.
My thought on this: Maybe we are in such a phase right now...
It is possible that the current situation and isolated banking crises should be seen in this context. Don't let the panic reports drive you crazy, trade the market. Things do not look that bad (yet). It is possible that the opposite pole, the most favourable entry point, will be reached shortly.
->No trading advice, use your own judgement.
Math matters again, stock index valuations reverting to mean avgmake math great again!
DJI dow in this chart failed to break out higher and now looking for fair value amid panic.
Credit Suisse, back in headlines today, banks getting balance sheet help, gold threatening higher.
Im sure there are many baby boomers who need their retirement that strong considering taking profits and taking 4-5% this month.
5% on bonds is like 20 PE with less risk.
20 pe in stocks comes with 30 to 50% potential if they dont keep growing.
businesses earning shrink in recession and PE valuations come down.
do the math.
DOW JONES 1st time RSI oversold since September. Buy.Dow Jones found Support on the 31710 level (Support 1) of the November 3rd Low.
The long term Pitchfork indicates that this is its bottom level.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34350 (near Resistance 2). This is a similar impulse wave to June-July and October.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit the oversold barrier for the first time since September 30th.
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DOW JONES Don't get confused.It's starting a new multiyear rallyThis is a chart we've looked into in the recent past for Dow Jones (DJI) but amidst the recent uncertainty, we think it is necessary to refresh in order to keep things into a longer term perspective.
The time-frame is the 1W (weekly) where Dow is seen forming an Arc pattern on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which since the 2009 housing crisis bottom, has formed every time it corrected on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and rebounded (excluding of course the March 2020 COVID crash). On both of these occasions, this Arc pattern was an Accumulation Phase before a new multi-year rally.
The 1W RSI is also on a familiar pattern with those prior fractals, forming an Arc construct on a Lower Highs trend-line. Is this the final accumulation before Dow starts a new multi-year rally?
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Dowjones Couple of scenarios for potential downsidesHey Traders, above is a technical overview on US30 and the most important zones to watch. Dowjones broke an important support zone as a first potential scenario i will be considering a retrace of the breakout around 32500 as a first zone. in case of a fake out then the Second Scenario should be opted around 33000 supply and demand zone at the major trend which is also considered a psychological zone.
Dow going Down?The Dow is testing an intermediate support at 31776 but we're seeing a really nice potential pullback to an overlap resistance of 32490 which is also a 38% fib retracement.
A reversal from here could see prices drop all the way down to the next overlap support at 30285. It's worth noting that price has also crossed below the Ichimoku cloud suggesting that some bearish momentum might be on the cards.
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DOW JONES One month rise is startingDow Jones hit the bottom of the Channel Down and is immediately reacting with a rebound.
The price also closed above Support B. The RSI missed the oversold level by a narrow margin and this is identical with the September 27th market bottom.
Our medium term target is 33450 (Top of Channel Donwn and on top of the Harmonic Resistance).
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11 Trade Ideas Predicting The DJI Crash | Where Is The Bottom?The Dow Jones Industrial Averages index has been holding much, much better compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.
While the other two indexes have been down considerably since we started to predict the crash (18% SPX & 25% NDX), the Dow Jones (DJI) has gone down only by 12%.
This is the last one of this series of articles.
Feel free to relax as we get started!
Thanks a lot for your support.
---
Let's start with the chart above on the Monthly timeframe.
The DJI closed last month below EMA10 and it is now signaling lower.
We use EMA10 to gauge the short-term potential of a cryptocurrency trading pair, stock or chart.
So the short-term potential has gone bearish... This we normally say based on the daily (24 hours per candle) timeframe.
Since this is the monthly, each candle is ~30X stronger than the daily.
Which means that this very simple signal can yet be very strong.
---
We started in late January to look at the Dow Jones.
We don't need/use 100 indicators, the very simple moving averages for us are more than enough.
Here we saw that the Dow Jones is no exception, it was also set to drop!
(Jan. 24) The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is No Exception (Crash)
Two days later we looked at the famous 'Falling Wedge" pattern and compared it to 2020-2018...
This one on the monthly timeframe.
(Jan. 26) Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Chart Analysis (30%+ Crash)
We can appreciate how the DJI was looking better than the SPX and NDX...
Yet, the indicators, such as the MACD, gave it away!
(Jan. 28) The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Not All Red
Dead cat bounce, anyone?
Easy to tell... We stay conservative though to not scare you away.
How to prevent a crash if the Feds policy do not change?
A: Impossible
(Feb. 7) DJI Weak Bounce
And here too for the initial phases of the correction we look at the classic ABC.
(Feb. 11) DJI Crash Last Reminder
To me, the next one was the biggest give away of all.
The long-term cycles are very strong but what to say when an index loses a 20 years long support?
We are talking about the MACD on this one...
(Feb. 14) DJI And The 20 Year MACD Support
We step back to sum it all up...
It is possible that the DJI goes for a 50% or more drop... Who knows, let's ask the chart!
(Mar. 4) DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average (Additional 55% Drop)
By mid-March we shared the "bear-run"!
This is happening across all markets and will continue a bit longer before we see sustained/long-term growth.
(Mar. 13) DJI Bear Run
This is all for the major US Indexes.
We will go back to Bitcoin soon and then focus 100% on the Altcoins which is where the money grows.
---
In all, we published:
(1) 26 trade ideas for the SPX (all bearish).
(2) 14 trade ideas for the NDX (all bearish).
(3) 11 trade ideas for the DJI (all bearish).
For Bitcoin (BTCUSD), we share the Macro/Long-Term view as well as the short-term bounces/moves when prices go up.
You can count on us being here by the time the bottom is reached and when we hit $300,000 or more in 2025 and beyond.
Namaste.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
Short on reject of 32789 offered very good returns for those who were able to trade
during the US afternoon hours.
Ease of movement to the downside observed.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on test and reject of 32789, possible target 31100
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward low (non-trend changing)
Daily: Low vol E=R down bar (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
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Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD - Thank You JPOWOANDA:US30USD
Price action was a little dicey during Chair Powell week.
But with a birds-eye view and some price action analysis, you knew to stay bearish.
What do you think for next week?
Pop to the upside, as the market makers say, enough is enough?
Trade well
DOW JONES 1929 - Worst is yet to come Federal Reserve raising rates vertical fasted in history.
1. More people getting bullish before mass bankruptcies are filed
2. Bull whip effect in full force too many new hired people from stimulus
3. FED are stuck and have to raise rates through a recession threat to defend the US Dollar and US bonds
4. They potentially avoided the blow off top but can they prevent the collapse?
5. Banks are running into liquidity issues already
6. Unemployment claims are skyrocketing from job layoffs not being reported.
Dow Jones : eyes on 29000My target for US30/Dow Jones is 29000
My reasons :
Technically, price failed to create new highs and it's a signal that bullish momentum is turning bearish, which will be confirmed if the weekly candle close below 32000
Fundamentals also are putting pressure on Dow Jones, as we have SVB saga, inflation, strong dollar, US debt deficit and more
Collapse Of The US Economy DOW AMERICA | Part Two
The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, “stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau.’” 1
The epic boom ended in a cataclysmic bust. On Black Monday, October 28, 1929, the Dow declined nearly 13 percent. On the following day, Black Tuesday, the market dropped nearly 12 percent. By mid-November, the Dow had lost almost half of its value. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century, 89 percent below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.
Skeptics existed, however. Among them was the Federal Reserve. The governors of many Federal Reserve Banks and a majority of the Federal Reserve Board believed stock-market speculation diverted resources from productive uses, like commerce and industry. The Board asserted that the “Federal Reserve Act does not … contemplate the use of the resources of the Federal Reserve Banks for the creation or extension of speculative credit” (Chandler 1971, 56).2
The Federal Reserve’s rate increase had unintended consequences. Because of the international gold standard, the Fed’s actions forced foreign central banks to raise their own interest rates. Tight-money policies tipped economies around the world into recession. International commerce contracted, and the international economy slowed (Eichengreen 1992; Friedman and Schwartz 1963; Temin 1993).
The financial boom, however, continued. The Federal Reserve watched anxiously. Commercial banks continued to loan money to speculators, and other lenders invested increasing sums in loans to brokers. In September 1929, stock prices gyrated, with sudden declines and rapid recoveries. Some financial leaders continued to encourage investors to purchase equities, including Charles E. Mitchell, the president of the National City Bank (now Citibank) and a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.6 In October, Mitchell and a coalition of bankers attempted to restore confidence by publicly purchasing blocks of shares at high prices. The effort failed. Investors began selling madly. Share prices plummeted.
While New York’s actions protected commercial banks, the stock-market crash still harmed commerce and manufacturing. The crash frightened investors and consumers. Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit. Firms – like Ford Motors – saw demand decline, so they slowed production and furloughed workers. Unemployment rose, and the contraction that had begun in the summer of 1929 deepened (Romer 1990; Calomiris 1993).7
Before the crash, which wiped out both corporate and individual wealth, the stock market peaked on Sept. 3, 1929, with the Dow at 381.17. The ultimate bottom was reached on July 8, 1932, where the Dow stood at 41.22. From peak to trough, the Dow experienced a staggering loss of 89.2%
Between 1929 and 1933, real gross domestic product per capita plummeted by nearly 30% and the unemployment rate soared from about 3% to over 25%. The consumer price index (CPI) plunged by nearly 25%, with the rate of deflation exceeding 10% in 1932
DOW JONES: November Support and bottom of 4month Channel hit.Dow Jones is officially oversold on the 1D time frame (RSI = 29.490, MACD = -335.510, ADX = 43.978) with the RSI being that low for the first time since September 30th 2022. By hitting also the S1 Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, it becomes a buy opportunity for us, TP = 33,450 (P1).
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DOW JONES Any doubt we are completely off Bear limits anymore?This Dow Jones (DJI) from the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle until today with the 2007 - 2009 (Housing Crisis) Bear Cycle fractal plotted on it. As you see up until the mid October bottom, the two sequences practically traded in an identical way. Since then however, Dow has completely diverged from the 07/09 fractal and despite the late weakness, it is hard to claim that we are still in Bear Cycle territory.
Is there any doubt we are off Bear limits anymore?
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Five Waves Elliott Wave Structure in Dow Futures (YM)Cycle from 12.13.2022 high in Dow Futures (YM) shows a 5 swing sequence favoring follow up to the downside. Structure of the move lower from 12.13.2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Down from 12.13.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 32686 and rally in wave 2 ended at 34551. Dow Futures extends lower in wave 3 towards 32527 and wave 4 rally ended at 33590.
Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as an expanded flat. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 33211 and wave ((b)) pullback ended at 32527. Index then resumes higher in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 32785 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 32580. Index then resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 33470, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 33359. Final leg wave (v) ended at 33587 which completed wave ((c)) of 4 in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave 5 with internal subdivision as an impulse. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 32626 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 33002. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 32190 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 32534. Near term, as far as pivot at 33587 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
does technical analysis work? dia is wonderingDIA has been stuck in channel and will eventually pick a side.
rates rising, jpowell speaking, will treasuries pull assets form dollar sensitive dow?
DOW JONES The opportunity to buy again is NOWWe have been following this Triangle pattern on Dow Jones (DJI) trading within what we called the 'High Volatility region' since last year, with are last buy signal given 1 week ago:
The 33400 target was reached and yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is providing us with a new opportunity to buy. We have a confirmed Triple Bottom ranging from November 09 2022 and today's low makes a Higher Lows sequence similar to what followed after the December 20 2022 Low on the 32480 Support. Even the 4H CCI is on the exact same levels as December.
Target 1 is again 33400 and Target 2 is 34350 assuming the index breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Pivot Zone and then re-tests it successfully as a Support.
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DOW JONES High probability buy opportunity.Dow Jones quickly reached our first two targets (see bottom of the idea for the previous analysis).
Yesterday's rejection on Pivot Zone (2) creates the conditions for a new buy position since the index entered Pivot Zone (1) again.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy if it closes a candle over the MA200 (4H).
Targets:
1. 33500 (inside Pivot Zone (2) and on the tranjectory of the MA200 (4H)).
2. 34300 (near Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4H) has a Rising Support similar to late December. In fact the two bottom formation are very much alike, both bottomed on a Declining Support and initially hit Pivot Zone (2).
2. 1. The MA50 (1D) moves parallel with Support (2) and essentially has provides the same level of support pressure as that level. Trend changes long term if it breaks.
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Notes:
This is an extension of this trading plan:
