💾 DJIThe Dow Jones have been left behind compared to the SPX and NDX but the chart still looks pretty good.
We have a hammer 25-May after a months long correction, followed by a full green candle. This is a reversal signal with confirmation the next day.
We just need to see follow up on Monday but looking at the three major indexes together, SPX, DJI and NDX, we are going to call it bullish.
The blue spaces on the chart is the strong support.
The DJI is trading within a long-term higher low.
The bias is 100% bullish.
We will see how it goes but we expect it to grow in the short-term based on the current look of the chart.
This can change if the support levels break.
If support remains intact, up we go!
Namaste.
DOW
DOW JONES rebounding on the MA50 (4h) aiming at 34750.Dow Jones has had a strong rebound on the MA50 (4h) since the Fed low yesterday and maintains the short term Channel Up.
There is still much room for the index to rise inside the long term Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. If the price crosses under the Channel Up, buy on the MA50 (1d).
Targets:
1. 34750 (Rising Resistance).
2. 34900 (Resistance 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has its own Rising Resistance to be mindful of. The last two contact points with it, formed Higher Highs on the short term Channel Up.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 15/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
US30: Price levels and pattern analysis post-FMOCToday's focus: US30
Pattern – Ascending Triangle, low rejection, Resistance
Possible targets – 35,260 - 33,255
Support – 33,790
Resistance – 34,310
Today we have looked at the US30 after this morning’s FOMC. The Fed held rates but commented that we could see two more rises this year.
With price bouncing back after testing lower, could we see a new shot at resistance, or will we see sellers make a new test lower, breaking the current uptrend? If the trend is broken, could this set up a new move back to test the long-term pattern base?
On the other side, could buyers make a new move to test or break key resistance? With rate raises back on the agenda will this maintain the current key resistance and hold price in its overall pattern?
Good trading.
DOW JONES The closing of the 1day candle can send it to 34900Dow Jones/ US30 hit yesterday Resistance A (34260) but closed the candle under it.
If it closes over it, especially if the Fed assists with favorable news today, buy and target Resistance B at 34900.
Until it closes over it, a rejection is equally possible, with the 1day MA50 being the lowest buy entry in the event of a pull back.
The 1day MACD is still on a Bullish Cross, showing a healthy bullish trend.
Previous chart:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 14/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 13/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points:
1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019.
2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market."
==
A Caveat:
The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet.
What's really going on is extremely dangerous.
There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP.
By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments.
The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night.
If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once.
It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York.
==
I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range.
The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity.
The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind.
Monthly
Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher.
So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion:
Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024?
Two things to consider:
1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23.
(This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse)
2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election
So where we're at right now is make or break:
Weekly
For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later.
Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace.
If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024.
However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead.
It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum.
What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy.
If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup.
The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area.
But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later.
Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality.
But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets.
It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
Will the DOW break through or bounce back?The DOW is at an interesting level now.
It nearly touches the upper side of a triangle. If it breaks through, there is a resistance zone waiting.
What's next?
Will the DOW break through the triangle and resistance zone or bounce back?
Will this be a short chance while summer is looming?
Disclaimer:
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 12/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 Week
No change to previous analysis, observing reaction to 34605-34275 area. Last Friday's up bar
showed significant weakness.
Possible scenario:
Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
Reason:
Higher low toward previous resistance, on reducing volume.
The professionals may engineer a false break to suck in traders unaware of the weakness.
We shall wait to short on rejection of recent high.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32692 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar = NTC
Daily: Ultra low vol up bar close off high = significant weakness
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (11/06/2023)The DOW looks bullish and might be preparing for a Wave 3 to the upside. However, minimum requirements for a Wave 2 to the downside were not fullfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave 1 high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave 2.
DOW JONES confirmed buy signal supported by the MA50 (1d)Dow Jones is having a confirmed bullish breakout singal as it crossed over the short term Channel Up while holding the MA50 (1d).
This is a channel inside the longer term pattern of a Channel Up since the March Triple Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses above Resistance (1).
3. Sell if the price crosses below Support (1).
Targets:
1. 34350 (under Resistance 1).
2. 34900 (under Resistance 2).
3. 31750 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is at a level symmetric to January 11th when again the price crossed above a short term Channel Up after rebounding on the MA50 (1d). It reached 34350 shortly after.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Channel Up aiming at May's High.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up and yesterday's low was on the 4hour MA200.
With an emerging 4hour Golden Cross, this is a buy signal on the short-term.
The 4hour MACD is also about to make a Buy Cross, a very consistent buy opportunity.
Target Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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Most Relevant Short term Level's / US30 🧑💼33,111 Support on the Weekly Timeframe
34,092 Resistance on the Weekly Timeframe
With Monday Daily candle close, we have just created a Daily resistance zone at 33,760
32,856 is the nearest Daily Support Zone
After the market pumped up +2% last Friday, we can observe a -.61% down Monday.
The Market has been ranging for 6 months plus. I think we will continue to observe a range after the Daily timeframe popped it's head above 33,675 ( Previously a Daily resistance after Friday's Daily candle closed above it )
Monday's price action has had the Market ease off the highs and are idea here is that this will continue into Tuesday's and Wednesday's Trading.
If the Market sticks it heads back up to 33,762 it may offer a good Risk Reward Bearish Setup
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 Week
Welcome myself back from holiday!
Some selling into higher prices, so will watch reaction to 24605-34275
area.
Possible scenario:
1) Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
2) Higher low toward previous resistance, for long on retracement.
Retracement down bars need to be on lower volume for this to happen.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32695 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Lower vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Daily: Higher vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW JONES on a confirmed Bullish break-out.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the short-term Channel Down today, fulfilling the conditions for a buy break-out as presented on our previous analysis (see idea below) and is now even above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
To add more to the bullish sentiment, it even broke above the Diverging Lower Highs and has no real Resistance until 34270, which is our short-term Target. The current rebounded was achieved after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) held as Support on three separate tests.
The hidden Buy Signal however was derived by the 1D MACD, which completed today a Bullish Cross, the first since March 21 that was the previous market bottom and the start of the current long-term Channel Up
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DOW JONES: On an important make or break 1D MA200 testDow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down on currently red 1D technicals (RSI = 42.150, MACD = -137.170, ADX = 39.695). For the past week though it has been mostly sideways between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. Today the 1D MA200 held but that alone is not a buy signal.
If it crosses and closes over the 1D MA50, we will target first the R1 (TP1 = 33,650) and then the top of the long term Channel Down (TP2 = 33,900). If the price closes under the 1D MA200, sell and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 32,000).
Prior idea:
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DOW JONES Trading approach going into JuneDow Jones / DJI is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than a month.
The price is now under the 4hour MA50 and as long as it closes there, sell and target close to Support A at 32600.
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA100 will be a short term buy signal targeting 33400 (top of the Channel Down).
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA200 will be a long term buy signal targeting Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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