SP500; technical and fundamental analysis Hi trader's,
in this week's video I elaborate on the SP500 and why it might start reversing soon. There is a clear driver for the US indices and that will be tested soon. Short term we see a corrective structure that might make another leg lower before higher. That is what I need for a short term buy. Otherwise I focus on the short trade as explained in the video.
Dollar_index
USD Index- Break Of Resistance Needed For BullsLast week the USD Index declined after two weeks of consolidation breaking key support at 94.030. This decline is still viewed as part of a correction and as a result we have a neutral outlook on the USD Index going into next week with a risk of a continued range. A break above the 94.030 level will indicate a resumption of the Bull trend.
DXY 1W - Elliott waves - updateDecided to make an update on my last plot of DXY from 24th Aug '17 (chart below).
So far, everything looks good!!
We are still in F -> G move I'm expecting price continue to move up until December 2017.
Reasons for that: in short-term Trump will announce new Fed chair, in long-term expectations of FED to hike rates by 25bp.
XAUUSD (gold) will trade in opposite direction as DXY, it means XAUUSD will move down until rate hikes.
Expecting XAUUSD to move strongly up next year, while DXY will go south G -> H move.
USD Index - Uptrend Intact Despite CorrectionLast week price pulled back towards broken resistance area turning support at 94.030. We see this as a correction pointing to further advances as still being the higher probability move.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Minor 5 – Trend ContinuationDollar Index (DXY) – Bearish Minor 5 – Trend Continuation
Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off the Reversal Area pointed out in the previous “Dollar-Index-DXY – Market Crash Road Map – Full Elliott Wave Cycle” and commenced the Corrective Pattern for Minor 4 (red).
It seems like the Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching what is called the “Golden Section” in Elliott Wave Analysis which acts as a Point of Interest or Vibration Level, drawing the Price Action towards it as a magnet. Golden Section usually acts as Trend Continuation Levels, in the Dollar’s case a Bearish Trend Continuation for Minor 5 (red).
If the above would be correct, then the Dollar Index (DXY) could resume the Dominant Trend and finalize Minor 5 (red) and with it the entire Intermediate (C) leg (turquoise), thus completing the Cycle in Primary Wave A (blue).
Dollar Index (DXY) – Corrective Minor 4 – Wave Analysis:
• Minute A (blue) commenced on the up-side showing a 3 Swing Sequence in its Minuette ABC Sub-Waves (orange).
Minuette (a) (orange) shows a typical 5 Swings Motive Structure.
Minuette (b) (orange) shows a deep pull-back in a Zig-Zag Pattern.
Minuette (c) (orange) shows an Extension, which took a form of an Wedge, making the entire Minute A (blue) develop as a Leading Diagonal for the overall Corrective Structure.
• Minute B (blue) retraced as a Triple Three Pattern, showing a Complex Structure in its Minuette WXYXZ Sub-Waves (purple).
• Minute C (blue) is possibly taking form of an Expanding Ending Diagonal, with 2 legs awaiting to finalize, which are Minuettes (iv) & (v) (black).
A Bearish Divergence would be awaited at the end of Minuette (v) (black).
USD Index - Advance Into Resistance ExpectedWe start the week with price having rejected from the previous area of resistance turned support at 94.030 and is now looking to test next key resistance at 95.270. Next major resistance to the upside after 95.270 sits at 96.695.
USD Index - Breakout Hints At Further AdvancesWe start the week with the USD Index above key resistance of 94.030 hinting at further advances in the USD Index. A pullback and re-test of the 94.030 will provide a great chance to look for Bullish formations and patterns towards the target and next key area of resistance at 95.270
USD Index/DXY SHORT PROJECT (Daily)Good day, All!
The daily bearish DXY project is currently forming.
Once point 5 is shaped, it can provide quite an interesting short opportunity.
If this pattern works, it may also signify the continuation of the major bearish trend which started back in the beginning of 2017:
Not convinced on USD Strength...Looking at the technicals, DXY has attempted to break the fib line more than once. If you look at USD JPY it has tried to penetrate the 114.40 a few times. We are not far from 114.40 again or far from 94.00. If DXY breaks 94 and USDJPY breaks 114.40 then great, on we go...
USD Index - Breakout Of Resistance Hints At Further AdvancesWe start the week with the USD Index above key resistance at 93.455 leading to a Bullish bias in this market next week. A failure of resistance would pave the way for a re-test of support at 92.635 however as long as we remain above 93.455 we will only be looking for longs in the USD Index next week.