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July 22' Sugar #11 Futures Technical Analysis Bearish CaseGoing back to November 18, 2021, July 22’ Sugar was in a downtrend, which was broken on Mar 1, 2022 with a close of 18.12. This began a new Primary uptrend, remaining intact until April 20, 2022. Even though this trendline was broken with conviction (closing on the lows of the day April 20), the market rallied on April 21, closing at 19.81 (6 ticks from the high). This close touched that broken trendline, but this time, from the opposite side! More importantly for April 21, the market bounced off 19.49 (low of the day), which was previous major resistance (Pink Line Mar 7-10). Previous resistance tends to become support when a market is in an uptrend. Friday, April 22 brought a solid down day, taking out not only the 19.50 level, but closing below the first major Fibonacci Level (.382) of 19.29. This day brought the most volume (78.31k contracts) since April 13. April 13 was the contract high yet closed the day forming a Gravestone Doji Top. Moving onto technical indicators, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is currently below its 9 EMA (bearish), and below levels not seen since Mar 18 (Sugar had a high of 18.88 that day, well below where we are trading today!). This is considered Negative Divergence, as Sugar is trading higher today, then the last time period when MACD was at these levels. Bearish Case: Up trendline on a Daily chart that is broken. Daily Gravestone Doji Top completed on the contract high. Negative MACD divergence. Currently trading below the .382 Fibonacci retracement level from the previous trendline. 18.92 (50% retracement level) is very likely to be seen sooner than later. One thing to keep in mind is that 19.50 could be revisited, yet this time acting as resistance. If 19.50 is revisited, and remains intact as resistance, a close below 19.17 in needed as confirmation to continue lower. -Paul Wankmueller CMT
ICEUS:SBN2022Short
by Paul_Wankmueller
SHIB- that's a very straight flag Hello everyone On the daily chart of SHIBUSDT, we can see a very straight(odd) bull flag pattern ,we also have a wedge pattern on weekly chart that shows a lot,and on daily we can see long shadows on the last 3 candles and the middle one is a Doji. With the indication of the things I just explained, we can have a rise close to the trend line and with the hope of having the market making higher highs we might be able to reach 0.000028$ within the end of the month. P.S. : I analyze coins (and markets)with good white paper and a good future,and I do not give financial advises or suggest markets.
by HubAlgo
[Candlestick Patterns] Just need to know these three!#Candlestick #CandlePattern #Tocademy #Tutorial Hello traders from all over the world, this is Tommy =) I was unexpectedly surprised by many of you who liked and supported my last post about the basic concept of TA(Technical Analysis). Today I prepared a brief lecture about the Candlestick Pattern, one of the most fundamental phenomenon and behaviors that traders must be well-informed. In fact, we should be very familiar with these textbook contents and interpret it in a glimpse on the technical chart unconsciously. Just like we don't pay direct attention about each breathes when breathing, like we don't care each and all of the alphabets when we speak, or like we don’t perceive location of each keyboards every moment as we type, this very technique should be performed automatically and quickly by observing dominant formations of candlestick bars. As a matter of fact, comprehending market trends and price actions only by referring to the candlesticks is yet too spurious. It should be used in such a way to weight on certain scenarios in a macroscopic view, rather than deriving precise and specific PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone)s and distinguish the accurate market trend. It’s never like ‘The price must go up because this pattern just appeared’. Furthermore, I strongly believe that the reliability of the candlestick pattern strategy is declining especially in recent financial market, where we encounter countless non-traditional and abnormal situations that were not very common in the past. Hence among the existing ‘Textbook’ candlestick pattern strategies that can easily be found on Google, there are particular patterns that are still very reliable on current market and there are ones that are not as reliable as it used to be. So here, I will organize everything very clearly for you guys. The technical chart is well known as sort of a map tracing the mob-psychology of all the stakeholders in the market. Investors’ sentiments such as FUD(Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) and FOMO(Fear of Missing Out) that often cause panic buy/sell are visualized as data. Those with a clear understanding of the fundamental nature of how candlesticks are being formed, don’t even need to memorize these patterns one by one. As I emphasized at my previous post, candlesticks should be interpreted as a whole structure, unlike the line chart expressed in one-dimensional. Candlesticks are newly formed in each time interval and we can choose the timeframe for the chart that we are about to analyze. For instance, each candlestick in a daily chart is formed every day while each candlestick in a 5minute chart is formed every 5 minutes. Higher the timeframe of the chart is, longer-term the scope within the chart is. It is important as a TA analyst to start from macro-perspective with higher timeframe first, then go deeper to lower timeframe and find short-term factors. There are four independent prices composing a candlestick: open, high, low and close price. Open price indicates the starting point while close price indicates the ending point of a candlestick. Just like the wording, high/low prices are formed at the highest/lowest price during the time period of candlestick being formed. A bullish candlestick is when the closing price is above the opening price (i.e., when the price rises), while a bearish candle is when the closing price is below the opening price (i.e., when the price is falling), and the two are expressed in different colors (green & red or red & blue). The thick part between the opening and closing price is called the ‘Body’, and the thin part is called the ‘Tail’ (Wick or Shadow). Typically, the length of the body implies the strength of an ongoing trend. We learned from the textbook that the candlesticks with a longer body means stronger trend and those with shorter tails mean clearer trend. Back in the days, there was time when we could detect if whales are involved and deduct impulsiveness of ongoing trend when distinctly long bodied candlesticks with relatively high trading volumes take places. I am afraid to tell you that it is better to erase that memory. First of all, it is too obvious and cliché to announce that the long candlesticks with high volumes mean strong market trend. This criterion itself is quite vague and not 100% reliable to identify future trends or find insightful signals. Moreover, in recent days (especially in Crypto), whales like to deceive retail traders with a strong faith of trading volumes and since the future markets are becoming bigger, giving too much weight on trading volume paired to each candlestick is not as effective as it was when textbook used to work very well. I am not saying textbook is wrong. It just needs slight updates since the market we are dealing with keeps changing over time. In TA world, closing price of a candlestick carries a great meaning and thus closing prices at higher timeframes should very well be monitored to become a successful trader. Sometimes whales even battle aggressively right before a major closing time often causing a weird ‘scam’ moves with a high volume. As shown below, we usually find the price and time when certain TA variables (such as top/bottom of trendline, channels, pivot levels, and other indicators) are broken, meaning if the price has penetrated those variables successfully, in order to find breakout entries, stoplosses, and target prices, etc. This whole concept of breaking above or below is quite vague, subjective, and relative idea. So, what we traders refer to as a reliable criterion is confirming whether the candle closed above and below the factors. For instance, let’s say that we are seeking and waiting for the breakout of the downward trendline. Well sometimes it’s not as easy as expected to precisely spot and determine whether the price has successfully pierced through the trendline. There are times when price breaks the trendline, but ends up coming back below leading close price of the candlestick to be formed below the trendline like the case 2 below. In this very case, it’s difficult to determine whether the breakout happened successfully or not. Nevertheless, like case 3, when both closing and high prices are formed above the trendline, we can clearly confirm and weight more on the breakout scenario, expecting more bullish rally. Okay let's get to the point. In recent financial trading market, it's enough to know just these three. 1. Engulfing 2. Doji 3. Long Tailed Candlestick As mentioned above, there’s nothing hard if you understand the essential concepts and principles of the above patterns and phenomena. The engulfing candlestick is a phenomenon in which the body of the previous candle is consumed by the body of the next candle, that is, a larger body than the previous one comes out. In other words, if a new bullish candle closes higher than the previous open price or if a new bearish candle closes lower than the previous open price, we say ‘the new candlestick engulfed the previous one’. If we look closely, this pattern implies the circumstance where the new candle completely overwhelms the trend of the previous candle and reverses it into a new trend despite closing the price from above or below. However, the appearance of an engulfing candle does not mean that the trend is unconditionally reversed. It is often the case that engulfing candles take place consecutively, with the second candle taking over the body of the first candle, the third’s taking over the second’s, the fourth’s taking over the third’s and so on. As the price fluctuates up and down, it creates a Widening or Broadening pattern also known as expanding sort of shapes, making it difficult for traders to figure out the current trend. In this circumstance, the entry prices, stop loss prices, target prices, or average prices of many participants in the market tend to be located relatively nearby. This price range or region is called a HVP(High Volume Profile or Peak) or an Orderblock and I will cover details about this concept later on another post. Anyway, there are numerous methods to derive Orderblock and one of them is to spot bodies of the consecutive engulfing candlesticks. The tail(wick) of a candlestick can be interpreted as a sign of the fierce battle between the bulls are bears. Longer tail signifies bigger collision between buying and selling forces. The longer the upper tail, the more the bulls trying to raise the price up but the bears rejecting them eventually sellers ending up being dominant and vice versa for the longer the lower tail. Generally, when the long upper/lower tails are formed at a relative higher/lower part of the wave structure or at a distinctive pullback as a PRZ this can be a possible signal of trend reversal. Due to my personal trading experience, it doesn't matter much in recent TA market whether the long-tailed candlestick is a bullish or bearish. In other words, regardless of the color of Hammer or Shooting star (which are both long-tailed candlestick pattern), it’s better to check if the next following candlesticks are being formed opposite direction of the tail. Personally, I don't think the Inverted Hammer and Hanging Man are not as necessary as it used to be in the old days. When the length of the candlestick’s body is relatively short meaning if the open and close prices are very close, forming a cross like shape, it’s called a Doji. Since Doji has a short body, the upper and lower tails tend to come out longer and thus can be considered as evidence of a tense confrontation between the bulls and bears that eventually ends up reaching a balance. Similar to the long-tailed candlestick, Doji is also known as a sign of a PRZ depending on the next appearing candlesticks. When Dojis are observed after swing high or low, it can be a possible indicator that the on-going trend is overheated and you might want to anticipate some pullbacks. However, it is too risky to directly assume that the top or bottom is near just because of Doji. Especially in the market these days, Dojis also appear frequently in sideways and sometimes confuses traders searching for a clear trend. As emphasized above, as with other technical techniques, theories, and indicators, always remember to weight more to the emergence of patterns in higher timeframes and longer-term perspectives. The higher timeframe people globally refer to, the more the reliability the TA will be. Just think about it for a second. Which timeframe do you think that people consider more significantly about the closing price, a 5 minutes chart or a daily chart? I would obviously say that the price signals from the daily cart is relatively more representative and reflect longer-term than those of the 5 minutes chart. Keep in mind is that you also need to understand market trends from a macro perspective before approaching towards short-term perspective. It is always recommended to recognize long-term trends or situations in advance from the candlestick of a higher timeframe, and then look at more detailed and microscopic elements step by step. All right. I will wrap up now. Thanks for reading my post. Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are a huge inspiration for me to write more posts!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PEducation
by Tommy_Trader
20
BTC - WEEKLY - DOJI !WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action did not managed to breakout the clouds on a weekly closing basis for the second time in a row and as a result a DOJI pattern took place which is confirming the indecision and uncertainty I mentioned in my previous analysis published yesterday (see related idea below). The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 46'721 (69'000. - 32'950) has been filled during last week with a peak as you know @ 48'234. The failure to close above the clouds increased the risk for a downside move towards the Mid Bollinger Band , currently slightly below the 44'000 area, @ 43'929. This level is roughly in the middle of the weekly clouds and a failure to hold above it would put the focus to the next important support level which is the TENKAN-SEN @ 41'279 ahead of the bottom of the clouds around the 38'000, area which hold very well in the last couple of weeks in rejecting, several times in a row, the attempting to breakout the weekly bottom clouds support area. (only one weekly closing below the clouds which has been very quickly invalidated by the next candle !) On the UPSIDE , the top of the weekly clouds remains the first significant resistance area to break ahead the VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE (PIVOT LEVEL) @ 50'975 which is the KIJUN-SEN and which if broken would confirm a bottom in place and would open the door for higher levels towards the 55'000 area. RSI, neutral @ 52.07 and LAGGING LINE currently testing the top of the weekly clouds... DAILY (D1) Still caught in a relatively narrow trading range moving in a sideways mode. Continue to monitor and watch closely this daily price action which for the time being is oscillating around the daily TENKAN-SEN @ 46239. A failure to hold and close above this level would be the first warning signal, calling for further downside towards the former downtrend line resistance (triangle)around 44'500. the daily Mid Bollinger Band being slightly below @ 44'270. KEY SUPPORT AND PIVOT LEVEL ON A DAILY BASIS IS @ 42'900 RSI @ 60.71 and LAGGING LINE still in a sideways mode. 4 HOURS (H4) Invalidation of the upside breakout of the H4 clouds seen yesterday triggered an EVENING STAR ! Currently still in the middle of the clouds but already below the former uptrend line support which is now around 46'500. Watch on H4 closing basis the following levels : UPSIDE : 46'750 DOWNSIDE : 45'500 1 HOUR (H1) Watch the bottom level of the hourly clouds which is currently @ 45'700 which is the SUPPORT AREA IN H1 TIME FRAME. On the upside, watch MBB @ 46'333 ahead the CLUSTER of TS and KS @ 46'616 Have a nice trading week and all the best Take Care IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki www.tradingview.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
USDMYR Exchange RateLong shadow candles appear on the daily chart. Well, before you say anything, yes the candle isn't close yet, but it's a pretty good exchange rate. If you had earned from trading and the denomination is in USD, it is a good time to withdraw some profits. 4.2240 indeed is a great zone for profit-taking. You will be surprised, at how much more $$ it will bring you when you time your withdrawal. However, it is not a good time to pay using MYR for your USD commitment, SGD will be a better option(if you had stored SGD in advance). Never underestimate the importance of business planning from shifting your cashflow from 1 currency to another.
Short
by RaynLim
A look into the SPY: Are we sold on a full reversal yet?3Day Chart- With 1 day left, the shadow of the candle kissed the 50 EMA. Even with a close ABOVE its previous candles close but BELOW its current candle shadow low this should be seen as bearish. This would print a Shooting Star. 444.39 would be the level to watch for this scenario. 3Day Chart Bulls will want to see a close above the previous candles swing high at 446.46 at a minimum. Best case would be a close above the mid Feb swing high at 448 or better a close above the 50 EMA. 1Day Chart March 14 22' there was a 50/200 EMA cross under. Since then there has been a bit of a rally. 4 days ago, the Daily candle printed above the 50 EMA and 2 days ago above the 200 EMA. In between a Doji printed, kissing both the 200 and 40 EMA signifying major uncertainty. 1 Day Chart If the Daily candle prints at or below 445.50(ish) then we could view this as 1 Black Crow. My best gut feel says its this happens, then selling pressure may be more likely than not to continue through Friday. A note to bulls: this scenario would be OK as long as the .786 Fib is ultimately respected. A healthy .382 is a more likely retracement, but keep in mind the worst case break point at 423.24. Any retracement is fine as long as a HIGHER low is set. Those sweet spots IMO are the above 2 I mentioned. 1 Day Chart Ultimately, bulls want a close over the 200 EMA and bears under the 200 EMA. Here is a link to the 1 Week and 1 Month chart, comments below. Weekly Chart The SPY weekly candle should close above previous swing high candle body resistance around 449. Weekly Chart 453 is marked as resistance, as seen created locally in November. Nov-Jan it acted as support, but now broken it is viewed as resistance. This break of support to resistance happened in a breakout(down) of a major ascending level of supported created April 2020 as the market was recovering from the "covid" crash. Weekly Chart Best case for bulls: EOW rally to close the current weekly candle above 453. Best case for bears would be a weekly close with no lower shadow around 440 or a close below the 50 EMA A close of around 445-446 would print a Doji, meaning indecision in which patience is advised. Monthly Chart Best case for bulls is a close above its previous monthly candle high at 451. This would print a Bullish Engulfing candle. Best case for bears is a close below 423. 423 is a level back in May 21 that acted as resistance and helped create a Doji (indecision). This setup would look similar to a 3 Black Crowes reversal pattern The market has most certainly shown bullish signs, but IMHO this is a critical juncture that will shows us further signs of market recovery or turmoil.
AMEX:SPY
by OccamsPhazer
2
BNB is about to pick up with full strengthHello traders! BNB was bearish since Nov 2021 but now the market is collecting some strength to pick up. The formation of BNB is completed and now it's at the bottom of a rise. We can see an inverted 'J' pattern after a breakout. This is a pullback pattern. It forms below support so that market can pull itself. Why does BNB form a channel after an Inverted 'J'.? You must understand one thing that every pattern has some kind of strength and it helps the market to react and every pattern has limited energy. After a certain movement, it loses its energy. Most of the patterns have 1:2 energy means they can't help the coin to move more than that and after that market forms another pattern for the next move. And if there are two pullback patterns then we can see 1:3-1:5 move in a single impulse. Correction is not a pullback pattern but the pattern after a correction is a pullback pattern. So we have 2 strong pullback patterns and now we can expect a strong rise from BNB. Now let's talk about the Doji candle. I was always taught and learned that if there is a Doji wick at support or trendline then we will see a rise from there and everyone teaches it like that and that's wrong, it does not work in that way, when I was searching the truth I figured out that there is 25% chance that market will rise and 75% chance that market will continue the drop. So why are we buying it now? Only because we have multiple pullback patterns and also Doji candle which is just one more bonus point. If you like my analysis then please click the like button and follow to stay connected
Long
by Aadil1000x
Reversal Signs Continue in Palm Oil MarketFCPO closed higher at 5539 after gap filled at 5612 by last Friday but posted weekly losses. What were the factors that caused crude palm oil prices struggling to maintain above 5800? 1. India reduce farm infrastructure tax on CPO to 5%, which will effective until Sept 30, with the objective to increase gap between CPO and refined palm oil to benefit the domestic refining industry. 2. Uncertainties over Ukraine crisis lead market to stay vigilant on possible rising tensions. 3. Better production forecast for 1st half of Feb limited the upside of palm oil prices 4. Soybean Oil continue to move higher as concerns over weather forecast and fire incident broke in US biodiesel plant at Claypool, Indiana. Furthermore, India acquire massive purchase on soybean oil as high soybean price for local crushers to reduce output. 5. Crude Oil prices extended losses as prospects of extra supply from Iran. Weaker crude make palm less attractive option for biodiesel feedstock. 6. Near month spread widen as traders foresee East Malaysia production remains weak for Feb. Technical View: Market reversal signs remains. Gravestone doji formed in Daily Chart after market tried to move higher but sell down by the market. Stochastic K% line is crossing down at overbought zone in both weekly and daily chart We expect market may have short term retracement with immediate support level at 5350. Suggestion Trade: Short if stay below 5550 Target Stop Loss (resistance level) 5625 Target Profit (support level) TP1 5425 TP2 5345 TP 5245
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by happytrading96
The Power of DojiA Doji is created when the open and close for a price are virtually the same. Doji tend to look like a cross or plus sign and have small or nonexistent bodies. From an auction theory perspective, Doji represent indecision on the side of both buyers and sellers. Everyone is equally matched, so the price goes nowhere; buyers and sellers are in a standoff. When it comes in a downtrend it act as a reversal pattern so we know that the bears power is weak, and bulls start to take control thus the price will go up and the trend will be up , when it comes in an uptrend the bull power is weak , bears starts to take control and price will eventually go down . But in technical analysis you cant enter a trade only from one sign so you should know you Support and Resistance area, draw your trend lines, use some indicators, and when you see the Doji know you know its the perfect time to execute the trade.
Education
by Tradewithmoe
ADAUSDT Break + Retest 50Ma SHORT PHi everyone Daily" Going short ADAUSDT RSI still has a long way to get down to over sold area, had confirmation from red DOJI and second long Red candle. + Price fail to cross up 50 MA ALWAYS look for extra confirmation on any trade, Anything like a bullish/ bearish candle such as the one we can see here "Red Doji' Possible drop to $1 If bears stay strong, then look for rebound up to retest $1.50 Area " I would personally hold on any long positions until we ether confirm a new strong new trend or buy at $1.5 area" Happy trading people (No financial advice) DISCLAIMER The trading ideas, analysis, and comments above should not be considered financial advice or recommendation to trade or invest in any financial product. Your personal situation has not been taken into consideration in the trade ideas. This page is for general educational purposes only. Do not buy or sell any product discusses on this page before doing your own research. Always do your own analysis and research and be aware of the risks involved in trading any financial product :)
Short
by CryptoTraderRetired
2
Palm Oil Prices Back to the Range of 4700-5200 Again?Palm oil prices closed higher and back to the range of 4700-5200. Several Factors that make the palm oil prices back to the range of 4700-5200 as below: 1. Weakness in soybean oil after US raised proposal to scale back biofuel blending mandates 2. Shortage of Workers due to coronavirus pandemic & higher cost of recruitment as palm oil producers make changes in response to accusations of forced labour 3. Record high fertilizer prices 4. MPOB showed higher inventories offset by lower production and higher exports Technical view: 1. Doji formed after range trading between 4724-4949- signal market struggle for new direction 2. Harami indicates reversal signal 3. Stochastic level= remain bearish signs Suggestion Trade: Buying at support 4700; Stop Loss 4600; Target Profit 4950-5000 Selling at resistance 5000; Stop Loss 5200; Target Profit 4750-4800 Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks. Happy Trading!! Cheers. ** DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISK **
MYX:FCPO1!
by happytrading96
#PLTR reacts well on 20$ support and closed above yesterday highAs I shared this morning, I hoped for a daily close abve the high of the yesterday doji candle. The price managed to close higher than that and this is to me a great sign of possible reversal and confirmation of the rebounce from the 20$ level. I just would like to mention that the last two times the RSI touched the oversold territory (May and July 2021) the price reacted reaching an average of 45% increase and I want to think that this might be happening again this time. Not a financial advice, just personal opinion. Do your own due diligence and good luck!
PLong
by FrancescoMerlettini
9
Rocket Lab setting up for a strong reversal. PIPE dry? 🚀 RocketLab has a few catalysts coming up. The sell off was due to the PIPE being unlocked. This isn't a high redemption SPAC pump and dump, I don't expect this to fall any further than $12.30. Strong buying there. Nice doji reversal on the weekly with selling pressure easing on the indicators. Cost to borrow is going down which indicates it's not as lucrative to short. Looking for $15+ by mid November and a run up to $20+ towards EOY due to reward structure for management if they close there for a set amount of dates.
NASDAQ:RKLBLong
by tohsined
1