Doji
Another free trade.You must short this one.I know CHFJPY is not a common pair but I can not leave it when I get a signals. Right now the market is on the resistance. On one hour time frame, the market formed a doji. It is having difficult in crossing that level. There is a high possibility the market will reverse and continue with downtrend. I will hold a little and watch how the volumes will appear and then I will decide if I will short this trade. May the market favor us.
What a quiet day on the market looks likeSo the FED meets this week on Tuesday and will make some statement on Wednesday or something like that. Trading volume is light, AAPL has earnings coming out mid week. The market seems quiet... so is it? Often if the market is quiet, I check some of my favorite freak out stocks (big movers). Here is a great example of what a really quiet day looks like... GOOGL not moving a bit... quite rare actually.
GBPJPY - A Juicy Gravestone Doji formed [4HR] A very nice looking Gravestone Doji has formed on the 4-hour chart for GBP/JPY. A few points to note:
A) Daily failed to close above 170.00
B) I expect an ABCD pattern to form. If correct, then the timing of this Gravestone Doji is perfect. The ABCD pattern may start its C/D leg at around the 167.00 level, of which is where the downtrend ended and a great buying opportunity may present itself again.
CAUTION:
When trading Doji’s, you should be extremely cautious. The market is telling us that something important has happened, however, what that is I’m not sure. Also, I’m assuming an ABCD pattern is forming, so this trade fits my plan and price may just continue to smash up to the 172.5 level.
For this trade, I would place my stop at 170.00
Plucka.
GBP/AUD: long playConfluences:
1/ trend
2/ 50 ema bounce
3/ doji
4/ deceleration
5/ fib play 61.8%
6/ Bullish MACD
7/ 2.145 as support
Took this trade last thursday ( Sept 17 ) but again because of this pullback today, 400 pips are still on the table, 170 pips are currently in profit. I see this pair go to 2.20
USDCHF Channel - Bullish ContinuationSince the de-pegging of the Swiss, price became somewhat erratic, however the last few weeks have seen price moving nicely within this channel. Once again price reached the bottom of channel, coinciding with the minor daily support of 0.9700, before forming a double doji bottom formation, which should signal a bear move, a daily golden cross, supports the strength of the current trend and recently the Swiss has had some unusually poor economic data released, with PPI missing it's already not so good expectations, coming in at -0.3%.
Obstacles here include the 0.98000 SR Level and the fact that the movement that brought us back to the bottom of the channel was a massive bearish engulfing candle.
That said, an entry price above 0.9800 resistance, a SL below previous days lows and an initial PT at 0.9900 would make a good 1:1 trade, but we believe price will make it at least as far as 1.000 giving a reasonable 2.24:1 Reward:Risk ratio.
A long legged doji in the PRZ of the bearish Crab?Aggressive entry
I took almost the high of this potential long legged doji with a Shark113 short @ 2.1000. I consider this level as the higher zone of the PRZ of the bearish crab. I will post another logchart with all my trades within this PRZ of the bear crab.
Testing
Thus far, each level of the PRZ has tested:
- XA 1.618% extension / BC 2.618 extension
- BC 3.0% extension
For more information about my predefined PRZ see:
Reading the chart
Now if the daily candlestick closes as a long legged doji, I will read this candlestick as bull weakness:
The bulls have tried to overcome this PRZ, but the bears hold their line at the 3.0% extension of BC. At the end of the day, none of sides has really won. However, since this potential doji started off with a gap to the upside, I think there is some bull exhaustion.
Setup
Since I'm already short with the Shark pattern aligned with the 3.0% of the BC extension of the crab PRZ, I've used my regular stoploss of 1.414% extension of OX of the Shark.
But, there is a nice reward if you're patient enough to hold these positions overnight. I'm targeting the 38.2% retracement of the CD leg of the crab as my first target. My second target would be the 50% retracement.
Entry: 2.0878
SL: 2.0190
target 1: 2.01915. risk/reward: 1:3.24
target 2: 1.9930.
VLO Short Trade IdeaAfter the previous 2 high volume days, VLO has made new highs. However, it did not close with a strong candlestick above the resistance and instead put in a doji. With this location it is setting up a nice Risk vs Reward trade for the short side. Previous resistance will be the 1st profit target and will be moving up the stop loss if the trade goes in my favor.
DAILY - BEARISH CYPHER AND 4TH POINT TOUCHING ON BEARISH TRENDGood day all,
Here we are looking at a Bearish Cypher pattern that completed and are now ready for entries.
The main trend line here is a Bearish trend and we are sitting now with a Bearish Cypher pattern.
RSI is at extreme overbought conditions and we are sitting at overbought +- 80.0 level.
We aslo have a shooting star at ARROW A and a Doji Candle at ARROW B.
Very good CTS score so lets go for gold ;)
Weekly Doji for Facebook should affect next two weeks tradingIf you look at the weekly chart for FB, you'll notice that the weekly Doji's on 12/22/14, 3/23/15 and 4/20/15 all made lows three weeks after the Doji week. On the Doji 2 weeks ago on 5/18/15, Fb was lower the next week, it should be lower the following 2 weeks also imho. The average drop for the 3 previous Doji weeks was $4.97 from the Doji close to he low three weeks later. You'll notice that Chaikin money flow has also dropped on the weekly chart. A daily chart shows a sell using the stochastic indicator and also the Directional Movement Indicator shows FB is in a downtrend. Fb has been weak lately, unable to hold above its 50 day moving average and fell below the 200 day moving average briefly. I expect another test of the 200 DMA this week or next and a close below it. Last quarter revenue was sequentially lower than the quarter before and in the January conference call, the company said to expect revenue to decline 5% this year due to expenses and the rising dollar. I'm short Fb with June puts. I expect Fb to decline to 75.51 by June 12.
JBLU LONG lots of support Stochastic s turning up JBLUE is holding this Trend-line support watch the levels 19.50-20 buy zones. The airlines are all hitting the buy levels. I cant stress enough, traders must learn to BUY the FEAR and SELL the GREED. Always have a plan and always have a stop. understand your parameters and you will do well.
KEEP IT SIMPLE TRADE LEVELS
A trade I've taken on GoldAlthough looking a bit choppy, the bigger picture on Gold still shows an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Price has touched the floor at ~1180 and rejected the trend line for a third time giving a bullish engulfing and doji bar yesterday, together with rejecting the 0.786 Fibonacci level and closing above it. Stochastic and RSI are in convergence and are just about hooking up to rise after being in oversold territory.
JLL gaps up but remains below pivot highJLL yesterday gapped up on higher volume and a good earnings report. But it hasn't yet comfortably cleared the recent pivot high of 2nd April.
I last looked at JLL 5 months ago in November 2014. The analysis suggested price would be heading higher - which it has done. But some of the pullbacks have been a little deeper than a trend trader would have liked - breaching the 50sma support on a couple of occasions. These pullbacks were within acceptable limits but a more linear trending chart would not have caused as much equity volatility.
Yesterday's spinning top/doji - and the fact price failed to break above the recent pivot high in a meaningful way - means that momentum is not as strong to the upside as I would like. I would expect to see a continuation of the uptrend but we need to see a bit more conviction with a stronger, more bullish bar.
A possibly buy opportunity in the near future.
Set-up of the Week - GBPUSD = GOOD CONFLUENCEThe GBPUSD has been ranging for a just over a month now but this choppy consolidation began to show signs of movement again by the end of last week. This week we have finally seen some real movement and it appears to be ending with a nice little set-up.
There is some heavy resistance on the Bullish side with the 50ema laying on thee 1.5000 level, which has acted as major Support and Resistance in the past and again recently. Depending on whether you choose the Daily or Weekly chart to draw your Fib Retracements you'll see that levels lay either side of this price.
We have chosen the Weekly chart. From this you can see throughout today price briefly managed to breakthrough and bounce of the 0.5 Retracement a strong reaction to this caused price to rally back down creating the Inverted Hammer we now see. With 2 hours left till the close for the weekend, we can't see this changing at all.
Thus we have 5 string factors of confluence -
1. Inverted Hammer
2. 1.5000 Resistance
3. 50ema Bounce
4. 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement
5. Trading with the Trend
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Happy Weekend!
Russell 2000 Looking for Lower GroundThe Russell 2000 boasts a whopping 89.27 P/E ratio and a dividend ratio of 1.36 percent. There actually is sometime that pays less than a US 10Y (for now).
Seemingly an index that is traded off of technicals, traders could see today's rapid pullback as the beginning to a larger correction. After a double-doji top, the Russell 2000 could not expand upon all-time highs (NASDAQ is next).
Price action on the daily chart was nicely confined within an ascending channel before breaking through and quickly topping. Noticeably, price action formed an ascending wedge. This is a bearish reversal pattern.
I began noticing that assets that were out of vogue, like gold and silver, were presenting descending wedges while those favored are looking toppy and forming ascending wedges. I digress.
Wedge support will be the most likely support level near 1,227, while price action will see 1,220 where price action and the 50 EMA (currently) is holding up.
Ultimately, the Russell 2000 can see sub-1,200 in mid-to-late April. Record accumulation looks to start seeing a period of distribution, and price action is switching from bullish to bearish.
MNK trending well since breaking $100MNK is not a stock I would normally consider as it only has data going back 18 months or so. However, it has been trending up that whole time and, since passing the $100 figure, has begun to trend well.
Prior to breaking above $100 the pullbacks were quite deep - frequently breaching the daily 50ma. But as price approached, and tested, this zone the 50ma began to act as support. There was a doji just below the resistance and, later, a spinning top retest as $100 became support.
On 16th March there was a breakout bar (on higher volume) followed by another bullish bar yesterday. Volume is good on this stock so a buy opportunity beckons.
EURUSD possible Morning star reversal candlestick patternRSI is extremely oversold on MONTHLY.
January couldn't close below 61.8% Fibonacci.
Once Feb will close around 1.13 we can see possible reverse up as it will be ideal morning star with Doji.
But nonetheless the trend is still bearish.
Move up can only indicate correction (maybe to relax RSI)
Watch 1.12/1.21 as medium term range.
Intelligent trades!
FSL gaps up for a second timeFSL gapped up for a second time on Friday and has now comfortably cleared the 2014 high.
As this stock has not been trading for long it is more difficult to gauge how relevant the recent gaps have been. Certainly they both exhibited higher volume. But neither bar was bullish, which is preferred for a gap up. So saying, the current uptrend (established in early December 2014) is linear so, over the longer-term, the trend is likely to continue - if FSL has now become established.
I would say it's early days for FSL as yet - but if you like to trade less established stocks then this looks set to continue higher.