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DJI

S&P test of 200 day and 2022 down channelYou can see that over the last two days that the S&P is jumped above the 200 day on Wednesday huge rally, which also broke above the April 2021 gap. However, today saw a rejection of the resistance of the down channel that started Jan 2022 ATH. This channel has rejected price solidly 2x times now. The most probable thing would be to see a rejection and to head lower, likely testing the 370 level. However, the market is fickle that way. Zag when you expect a Zig. Lot of talk about a Xmas rally. I think there is still some room to run up to the blue trend line, which is parallel to the other blue line connecting the major lows this year. That would be around 425 at the turn of the new year, but still a lower high. IMO, market feeling super irrational like most bear market rallies. Somehow everything is better now that the expectation is a 0.5 instead of 0.75 rate hike, and inflation is only 7% instead of 10%. All things that would be market killers any other year. The Fed still expects to raise rates to 5% or more, so still several hikes to go. And the expectation is the next round of earnings in the new year will be down. I have a hard time seeing a truly sustained rally back to the ATH or higher. I personally did some light buying in October and hoping for some profits for xmas. I am not super enthused to buy for what looks like a small, but risky gain. Day traders may be happy for the next few weeks, but longer term still feels pretty bearish to me.
AMEX:IVVLong
by Dr_Roboto
How VIX follows SPXVIX is a measure of volatility. It takes the last 30 days of SPX, and measures it's variance. I would guess that VVIX does the exact same thing to VIX, it takes the recent 30 days of VIX, and measures it's variance. These two, along with SKEW are some of the methods investors calculate risk. I don't have the technical/financial knowledge on the ways investors can use risk management for better financial decisions. If we do some "magic" we can transform these notoriously unchartable indices. I am aware that since VIX takes the value of SPX, gets affected by both the volatility and the price of SPX. So technically from it's nature VIX tracks SPX. If, for example, we plot the chart (1-VIX) we will see the following: As we already know, he inverse of VIX follows SPX. Low volatility equals high SPX. The calculation logic of the chart is: Scale down VVIX such that it is in a similar scale to VIX. Then subtract one from the other. SPX is scaled down, after we divide it by M2SL. I would guess that from 2009 to 2019, the growth was sustained because VIX was consistently low. I also noticed that VVIX this year is incredibly low. One would expect that with such this year's recession that VVIX would also pick up the pace. During periods of very high volatility like the Great Recession, VVIX tracks VIX. Not this year however... As a fellow trader pointed out quite some time ago: Now VIX is higher and it's behavior with VVIX is very similar to 2008. We could say that the current situation is much similar to 2000 or with 1970s with stagflation and not 2008. Some things however, they smell foul. The elephant in the room maybe... SKEW is in an all-time low. This could encourage investors to over-expose. THAT is when crashes happen. Overexposing when liquidity is being dried up from the FED, is a recipe for disaster. Even if we grow from here and everyone wins, who will have the money to pay back all these winnings? Especially now, with everyone investing like crazy, over-leveraging and such. And if EVERYONE is buying, who is selling? "Buying the dip" is part of the equation... I believe that the bottom is NOT in yet. And since charting indirect stuff like VIX, like housing, yields, energy, all point to the same direction, I cannot ignore them. PS. The elephant is the collapsed worldwide-production-chain. The elephant is that we are one step away from war or famine. And maybe, just maybe, the elephant is long gone... we just don't know it yet. And we are talking about how the DOW will not fall. We are convinced that we are in the bottom and we are buying the dip. We are dreaming of more money quicker. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori I am not a trader, I am a father of a cat named Alyx. Don't take what I say as trading advice.
V
by akikostas
DJI Potential For Bearish DropLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. However, I am looking to play a reversal. Looking for a sell entry at 34300.40 where the previous high is. Stop loss will be placed at 35411.35, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 33240.22, slightly above where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
TVC:DJIShort
by VantageMarkets
Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Dow Jones Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 3.06% last week according to VXD data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 7th percentile, while according to VXD, we are on 8th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.6% movement Bearish: 1.9% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 19.5% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 35473 BOT: 33370 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 79% probability we are going to touch previous high of 34750 21% probability we are going to touch previous low of 33370 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 77% BULLISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend 4H timeframe indicates 53.3% BULLISH trend
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!
by exlux
FED PIVOT conclusion= BUY/SELL setupFED PIVOT conclusion to take ENTRY: FED PIVOT 2022 looks similar to 1973: PIVOT MONTH=if occur in DECEMBER. POSSIBILITY= <30% rise(BULL TRAP) (17.44% already happened) till JANUARY followed by around 40% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2007: PIVOT MONTH=AUGUST. 14.99% rise till october followed by 57.69% CRASH. FED PIVOT 2000: PIVOT MONTH=DECEMBER. 10.31% rise(BULL TRAP) till JANUARY followed by 44.44% CRASH. FED PIVOT 1973: PIVOT MONTH=OCTOBER. 13.11% rise(BULL TRAP) already happened till OCTOBER followed by 45.97% CRASH.
TVC:SPXShort
by cryptopreet
4
Follow the DOW for clues....The DOW is the leader right now...and the saying "Don't fight the Fed" is still very much applicable. There is no pivot, inflationary pressures still exist and the 2022 moves in the US 10 year should not be taken lightly. If you read over my last post (Nov 15th) you know we are following a path similar to the Dot com bust bear market except this time it will be labeled as the Bond bust. DJI (DOW) continues to follow the 2000-2002 path of SMA's flattening out over time while SPX, RUT & NDX lag behind DJI. Obviously, no two bear markets are exactly the same but they can follow similar patterns. In the 2000-2002 bear market you can see the 2 year battle between the bulls/bears wore them both out; just like we have seen over the past year. The 9 SMA or Tenkan Sen has crossed below the 15 & 30 SMA's just like they did during the dot com bust...we then proceeded to re-test the ATH after the crossing of these SMA's before more rejection. I warned in my last post the DJI would probably reach the 35,000 "ish" range and I still believe we will hit this area...I mean Santa is coming to town right? The areas of resistance for DJI are now 35,492.22; 35,824.28 & 36,952.65...I will begin to ladder into the sell side when we get above 35,000. US 10 Year on a 6 month timeframe-This chart should scare the you know what out of any company or person with revolving credit! The continued hiking of interest rates is not "transitory". Commodity Index-Inflationary pressures still exist in case you thought we've reached "peak inflation"....the weekly is one scary looking bull flag. Just takes another "event" and watch out.
TVC:DJIShort
by Vixtine
8
DJI Dow Jones Short???Hello there! Great news came out yesterday regarding the interest rates by May 2023. Regardless, a great pump in market yesterday. But with such actions opportunities arise that can be seen while charting the trend. Here we have Dow Jones Industrial DJI shown: - A previous falling wedge worked it self into a nice pump. - Heading into correction territory. - How do you find where the correction will retest and bounce? -- Take a look at the previous Unclosed gad in green box at the 1HR chart. Gaps eventually will have to be closed. -- Also take a look at the FIB where the 0.618 lands, right at the GAP. What are your thoughts? Thank you for taking a look. Cheers.
DJ:DJIShort
by MARKETLYTICAL
DJI Potential For Bullish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI is bullish on the H4 chart. Additionally, the price is above the Ichimoku cloud , demonstrating a bullish market. Price has tapped into my buy stop entry at swing high 34106. 01 for this trade. At the previous swing low of 33063.05, where my relative safe stop loss is located. Take profit will be at 35492.22, where the previous swing high is. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
TVC:DJILong
by VantageMarkets
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index Concern!Today you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1M linear scale chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI). In the chart, I added in the RSI as well as review the Great Recession history to get an idea of where the DJI is headed. It seems that the DJI has been moving up an ARC with a possibility to come down and touch it again. It is currently inside a descending channel. If DJI price falls as much as it did during the Great Recession, it could come down to the $18K level where there is strong support. The RSI could support that type of drop as it is no where near the oversold region. This is presented on the monthly chart so please have patience. If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:DJI
by MillionaireEconomics
5