DOW JONES: Testing the 4H MA200 for the 1st time in 3 weeksDow Jones broke today the 33,460 - 33,500 Resistance Zone that was intact since December 22nd. At the moment it is attempting a test of the 4H MA200, the first since December 15th. Trading within a Channel Up and with 4H technicals bullish (RSI = 62.540, MACD = 15.660, ADX = 24.447) while the 1D MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross, we expect a strong bullish trend if the price breaks and closes above the 4H MA200, with 34,900 (December 13th Resistance) the Target. Preferably we would like to see a break above the Channel Up as well.
A break below the Channel Up will be a short-term sell opportunity with the 1D MA200 as the target, while further break below it, will target the 31,710 Support (November 3rd).
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DJI
US30 Liquidity on bot sides of range. When will it dissolve?The tight range serves for alot of stop losses above and under both these key levels.
One side will get taken first, and probably serve as a trap, after which we see a reversal to the actual direction.
(my bias is currently to the downside as the final direction due to fundamentals and broader trend(s))
Although I by no means recommend trading off my bias or trading off this idea at all, especially if you're unfamiliar with the ideas put forth.
The red line should also not be seen as a prediction, merely as a drawing to indicate what I mean by reversal to actual direction with my bias.
It could just aswell take bottom-side liquidity first and then run to the upside.
Don't predict, react.
CF Industries Holding Analyze!!!🌿CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is an American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, including ammonia, urea, and ammonium nitrate products, based in Deerfield, Illinois, a suburb of Chicago. It was founded in 1946 as the Central Farmers Fertilizer Company.
After growth of about 500%😱 in the last two years, CF Industries Holding has finally exited its ascending channel.
I expect CF Industries Holding to decline to the minimum support zone (about 15% down).
🔅CF Industries Holding Analyze ( CFUSD ) Timeframe 2Days⏰.
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DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33462.65, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is to clear out the liquidity hotspot. Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Will the dollar continue to plummet in 2023? Plus, a look at...Traders,
Happy New Year! It's been a terrible year for crypto, the markets, and the global macroeconomic environment. But the good news is that I believe we have left most of the negative declines behind us ...at least for a bit.
So, in this video, I'm going to look at what I see in 2023 for the U.S. dollar, the housing market, Bitcoin dominance, the stock markets (DJI, SPY, Nasdaq), and more.
Stew
DOW JONES Critical session tomorrowThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) remains within the medium-term Triangle pattern that is trading since December 16 and broke today above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The two have formed a Bearish Cross and the last two times this pattern emerged was on September 12 and May 04, both Lower High rejections that led to new market Lows.
The 1D RSI pattern however shows that we may already be on a market Low and if we close a 2nd straight green 1D candle (tomorrow), it invalidates all prior bearish bias. In that case, we will target again the 34300 Resistance (August 16 High) and the 34910 Resistance (December 13 High).
The index turns bearish if it breaks below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which made a perfect bounce on December 20. In that case we will target 31725 (Support 1) on the short and 30100 (Support 2) on the long-term.
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BA Simple Chart AnalysisBA - Resistance 195 & 229 area. Support 172 area. Red chip does appear aggressive here. Since China had already open their border, individual can look into it.
How to view the guidance via chart ( Refer back to pin message guidance if to trade )
Red Line = Support
Blue Line = Resistance
Light Blue = bullish/bearish pattern
Arrow = Double/Trip top/bottom
Red Chip = $$
Green Chip = XX
$VIX in middle of pattern2 From $DJI recent post
While most media & people ARE RIGHT, they tagged along @ end, too much neg
I'm contrarian, this much negativity raises flags, especially when media 24/7
Still think $VIX #VIX in between pattern gives opportunity for swings before the eventual breakout
#stocks #crypto
$DJI & lagging $SPX & $NDX - in decent positionsWe're NEUTRAL but with drop of cautious bull
Messed up another other post :)
Why cautious bull?
We've been warning since late Oct 21, were RIGHT
Went bull few times #stocks & #crypto but overall, BEAR
Sept 22 noticed shift
Mid Oct early Nov we went FULL BULL, till recently
This was part of a few posts
See $VIX next post
S&P trend lines to watch in the new yearAnother big picture view like my idea on the NASDAQ. Right now, it looks like on the monthly that the S&P has been testing the the purple trend line, but no success. From the looks of it, there is still a good size drop to come down to at least the bottom of the blue channel ($350) to test previous low, maybe even the center line of the purple channel around $325. Let's hope that holds, because if the dot com crash or the financial crisis repeat, then we could still fall all the way down to $240 range.
Weekly with 20 and 200 SMA
Daily with 20 and 200 SMA
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationLooking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for DJI is bearish due to the current price being below the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bearish market. Looking for a sell entry at 33418.59, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is to form a triple top retail formation. Stop loss will be at 34243.87, where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. I am looking to take profit at 32485.23, where the previous lows and liquidity lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
The NASDAQ FractalWhile we are talking about the Bitcoin fractal / logistic curve, I decided to analyze the second bubbly candidate, NDQ/NDX.
The .com bubble was fast and extensive, so in retrospect it is easy to see that it was a big bubble. The 2008-2021 big-tech mania may not be apparent but if we just rescale the chart on the price axis (not date) we see that the 1994-2000 part is highly correlated to the 2015-2021 price action. This is the bubble part of the two growths.
The overlapping part is quite satisfactory in the way it moves together. Considering the simplistic method of analysis I did.
We should scale things down since growth follows a fibonacci movement, not a linear one. Nature forces each growth to be some golden ratio smaller than the previous one. Either we like it or not...
I drew a retracement from the 2000 peak to the 1994 beginning, and moved it to 2015 as a start.
The bubble part of the 2015-2021 growth is significantly lower when compared to the 1994-2000 growth. Do note that in both instances a 6 year period is analyzed. The decreased rate of change is apparent.
There are numerous comparisons one can make.
Again retracement is copied and moved, not rescaled in any way.
I always tried to find a peak in NDQ. It wasn't until I tried fitting the .com bubble to the today's bubble that everything made sense. The chart got completed on it's own. A theoretical peak in NDQ will be on the 1.618 ratio of the .com bubble. It is quite far from here but with this candle pattern it makes sense. I have basically copied the 1985-2022 period and pasted on 2006. As I said before, the chart is rescaled only on price. And would you like to know how much I ended up scaling the chart? By a factor of .618
Conclusion: NASDAQ has it in it's DNA. Periods of incredible gains and periods of painful losses. This year it significantly underperformed the other main indices.
For the near future, with so many new technologies coming, it wouldn't be extreme to witness another bubble after a painful drop. We are dependent on technology, so it's sector will gain.
Final note: Bubbles and their patterns can be incredible sometimes.
80 years apart, back then with pen and paper, in 2000 on computer screens. Yet the bubble peak is identical.
PS. It appears from the chart, in pure speculation that sometime in the future we will violate this important trendline. Perhaps in 2040's robots will overtake the world and we will abolish technology once and for all. Curiously, a while back I listened to a song titled 2042 by Active Member. It's in Greek so don't bother looking for it if you don't understand the language.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
DJI still bearishIn our view, DJI remains bearish .
What we can see on a chart is a potential deviation in a well-defined downtrend .
RSI looks weak and remains in a downtrend.
As we're bearish on other major idicies such as SPX:
We expect that DJI will continue going down.
Long-term targets and potential path for DJI are shown on the chart.
Good luck
DOW JONES Will it invalidate the 2022 bearish fractal?The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been stuck within a Triangle pattern (dashed lines) since it hit and bounced on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on December 20 but has a clear rejection on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is the short-term Resistance. At the same time we can also see that the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) has also resumed its old role as a Resistance, having kept the index below it form April 22 to November 10 earlier this year.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is now the pivot but technically in 2022 when it broke as Support, Dow kickstarted major sell-offs. Both on April 22 and August 28, the major sell-off were confirmed and Dow extended the selling to a new market (Lower) Low.
This is however the first time since December 20 2021, so basically a whole year, that the 1D MA200 is acting as a Support. At the same time, the RSI on the 1D time-frame is more similar to the May 20 and September 27 lows.
As a result we have technical proof to believe that as long as the 1D MA200 holds, Dow Jones has more probabilities to attempt a test on the 34300 former Resistance (August 16 High) and then move for the 34910 December 13 High. Closing above the 4H MA100 will confirm this move.
A closing below the 1D MA200 however has more chanced of testing the 31725 (Support 1) and 30100 (Support 2) levels successively.
Notice how proportional the Bottom-to-Top and Top-to-Bottom sequences have been since the February 24 Low. If the symmetry continues to hold and of course assuming Dow breaks below the 1D MA200, the next low should be around early February 2023.
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US30 US500 - Back down?Reversal here? Price returned to fill biggest imbalance on the 1HR. Bias is still bearish. Taking a short near the top. SL 50 points current top on 1M.