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✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 13, 2023Key events: UK - GDP (MoM) (Jul) USA -Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) USA -CPI (MoM) (Aug) USA -CPI (YoY) (Aug) USA -Crude Oil Inventories In Tuesday's evening trading, US stock futures remained confined to a tight range, mirroring a session of mixed performance for major indices. This cautious sentiment prevailed as investors braced themselves for the upcoming release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday's session. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 all traded within a narrow range of just 0.1%. NASDAQ index daily chart S&P500 index daily chart DJI index daily chart The US dollar demonstrated relative stability in the lead-up to a significant US inflation report expected on Wednesday. However, it made gains against the Japanese yen as traders continued to digest comments from Japan's top central banker, hinting at a potential early exit from the country's negative interest rate policy. The US currency advanced by around 0.2%, reaching 147.39 against the yen. This marked a solid recovery from its most significant one-day percentage increase in two months, which occurred on Monday following statements made by Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda over the weekend. USD/JPY daily chart Investors were granted more time to carefully analyze Ueda's comments, and influential ruling party lawmaker Hiroshige Seko indicated his preference for maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy on Tuesday. This reaction came in response to Ueda's remarks, which had initially driven up the yen and bond yields. The yen has been under sustained pressure against the dollar, particularly since the Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a dovish stance in comparison to global central banks. This contrast became even more pronounced following the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike cycle, which commenced in March 2022. Data released on Wednesday revealed that Japan's annual wholesale inflation had decelerated for the eighth consecutive month in August. However, it remained at 3.2%, surpassing the central bank's 2% target. On a broader scale, the US dollar continued to exhibit strength, although market movements remained subdued as traders awaited a closely watched US inflation report scheduled for later in the day. Meanwhile, the British pound experienced a marginal 0.05% decline, settling at $1.2489, while the Australian dollar also saw a slight 0.03% dip, reaching $0.6408. GBP/USD daily chart The US dollar index, which measures the dollar's performance against a group of competing currencies, maintained its stability at 104.61. This followed a dip to a one-week low on Monday, characterized by its most substantial daily decline in two months. Analysts attributed this decline to the unwinding of long dollar positions, a response to a recent series of strong US economic data releases. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart The eagerly awaited US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, scheduled for release on Wednesday, comes just a week before Federal Reserve officials gather to make decisions on interest rate policy. Forecasts suggest that the headline CPI is expected to show a monthly increase of 0.6%, a notable rise from the previous month's 0.2%, with an annual increase of 3.6%. Although the central bank is widely anticipated to maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, as indicated by CME's FedWatch Tool, the Fed's actions in November remain less certain. In other developments, the euro held steady at $1.0753, maintaining its position after reaching a one-week high of $1.0777 in the previous session. EUR/USD daily chart European shares encountered a downturn on Tuesday, primarily driven by the negative impact of German software company SAP. SAP's performance was influenced by a disappointing forecast from the US tech giant Oracle (NYSE: ORCL). Germany's DAX index experienced a decline of 0.5%, with SAP's shares slipping by 1.8%. This decline followed Oracle's projection of current-quarter revenue figures that fell short of Wall Street's expectations. Challenging economic conditions had placed pressure on businesses' cloud spending, contributing to the subdued outlook. In contrast, Britain's FTSE 100 index stood as a notable exception, recording a gain of 0.4%. This upward movement was supported by a weaker pound, a result of data indicating a weakening labor market. Interestingly, despite the economic challenges, wage growth remained robust in July, creating a somewhat ambiguous outlook ahead of the Bank of England's impending interest rate decision next week. FTSE 100 index daily chart
by FOREXN1
8
DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash). This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows. It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions. We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DJILong
by TradingShot
8
D-JONES, Important Levels To Consider Next Times!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this update-analysis where we are looking at the DOW JONES Industry Index 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent price-action, the current importances in the structure, what to consider next times and how to handle upcoming situations in the right manner. As the overall stock-market is recovering from its corona-breakdowns seen this year there are major indices which already filled important key-levels such as the huge gap in the SPX which I mentioned and now filled properly, the DOW is still below these levels and could possibly follow-up with its gap-fill. In this case I detected some important signals which can make this happen when the DOW moves correctly within its range, but this does not mean the market is comptletely bullish as the bear-market is still not confirmedly over bearish action can increase again as markets approaching solid supply zones. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index just moved above its descending-channel-formation and formed this smaller ascending-channel-formation where it also moved above the upper boundary, these factors give an increased bullish pace within here and can indicate continuation to the upside which will be given when the index manages to travel above the last rising resistance of its channel as you can watch it in my chart, it is either possible to form a consolidation before doing this or a immediate breakthrough, a consolidation is more likely within this structure. When this properly plays out the index will look for the gap to be filled which will be crucial as this can be a point where supply enters the market as people taking profit and the price moves to the downside therefore it can also be considered a possible short-zone as you can watch it marked in my chart. It is highly important to take note that although the index sending some decent bullish signals at the moment it is still not confirmedly bullish not only because there are still remaining strong resistance-levels but also because there is still a huge difference between real economy and stock-market as stock-market is showing gains real economy is in a decline, to provide a healthy unspeculative market environment these two need definitely move together. When the index approaches the higher levels we need to elevate and be prepared for possible bearish signs as this will be crucial level where selling pressure can enter while many retailers rushed into the market to do not pass away the rally smart-money is still not fully in the market and in the sidelines this can be a indication for more bearish pressure assuming over the course of next weeks and months. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight and have a good day! “Forecast is a mixed fortune in todays market environment. ” Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets
TVC:DJI
by VincePrince
1
DOW JONES, Short-Term-Gap Filled, This Levels Are Important Now!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this update-analysis where we are looking at 4-hour timeframe of the major stock-market-index DOW JONES, what it is building up the last times, and what we can expect the next times. In a previous analysis, I gave a free signal for the index with the small-term-gap to be filled which now reached its targets fully and properly within the schedule, now this fact does not mean the index is completely bullish and will continue in this manner but it has some meaningful possibilities to do this when it manages to confirm given scenarios, there are some important levels and signals which I found which can affect the outcome substantially. As you can watch in my chart the index is trading in this important descending channel formation building a coherent upper boundary from its all-time-high to the previous highs established which it is currently testing to the upside, as the gap was filled and some supply entered the market the index is now consolidating between 26500 and 27000 which is overall a good sign that the index still holds this level. Furthermore, it has some decent support between the 26350 and 26500 levels which is marked in orange and building the lower range support below this level the index has also lower range support between 24700 and 24900 where it can bounce given within a solid likelihood. Now given these results we can come to the conclusion that the index has two possible scenarios to play out before it confirms the upper gap to be filled. The first scenario will play out when the index holds the current level and manages to move above the falling resistance to confirm above it therefore it is from high importance that the index does this with a decisive high volatile move, the other scenario is that the index firstly falls below the support in the range and confirms the overall lower support before it climbs up and sets up to fill the gap. As there is still some solid support in the range of the first scenario, scenario A is more possible within a given possibility of 65 % and scenario B with 35 %. This technical situation of the index does not alter the whole dynamic of the stock market which is currently trading in a speculative movement where many retailers enter the market while smart-money staying on the side-line. This can go some time but sooner or later the differences between the real economy and stock-market will be to be that either an adaptation of the two factors occurs or a shift into the bearish perspective again which can increase to the downside as there are many retailers in the market since the corona-breakdowns seen this year. The bullish short-to-middle-term perspective does not alter this fact therefore it should definitely not be kept aside, it will be highly interesting how this dynamic will develop. In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a great day, and all the best to you! Even though fortune's destiny seems obscure in the present, it is actually beginning right now. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
TVC:DJI
by VincePrince
6
D-JONES, Double Bottom, Possibility On The Long-Side!________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hi Traders, this is a signal I give to you for free today. Support will be great with a like and follow when useful. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY: 25850-26000 MINIMUM TARGET: 26900 STOP LOSS: 25395 MINIMUM RISK REWARD: 2.55 REASON: Double Bottom ________________________________________________________________________________________________ In this manner, thank you for watching and support for more market insight. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets. ________________________________________________________________________________________________
TVC:DJI
by VincePrince
7
DXY Is About To Revert - Peak Strength Index - 63 DXY Possible? The DXY has been in a position like this 3 times in history 1985 | 2001 | 2023 Every time the DXY has had a TSI 4W cross while the Stoch RSI was in the afterburn stage of rising with the Japanese Currency (JPY) either breaking major support or major resistance it has led to a complete rubber band reversal of the DXY. We now have the USDJPY hanging onto to support from 1990s. DXY losing momentum, PMI index reverting. DXY in Burn Zone. TSI showing strength loss. Annual inflation rate in the US 3% Does not matter if you think the SPY is overvalued, the FRED is done raising rates Inflation has collapsed (for now) meaning their next option is to hold / drop rates + initiate stimulus. This will cause a panic reaction and rush back into all assets away from bonds and money market funds. Recession will be avoided for 2024 and many will blame the FRED for "printing money" but the reality is this is going to cause every market to overheat and burn up depending on how fast the DXY reverts. This is where you get the flash backs of 1920s leverage something worse will develop over the next years and create a larger problem. Get the popcorn ready.
TVC:DXYShort
by FederalXBT
DOW JONES - Streamlining My Long-Term View For Clarity..."As mentioned previously, I decided to take a hiatus from chart analysis to focus on personal growth. I'm committed to delivering high-quality insights and refuse to share subpar ideas just for the sake of it. Continuous improvement is my mantra, and stagnation isn't an option for me. During this break, I've reevaluated my bearish stance to gain a fresh perspective. This shift in outlook has enabled me to grasp the potential bullish future of cryptocurrencies. Understanding the 'why' behind these possibilities has been crucial, and my chart-free period has been instrumental in achieving this clarity.
TVC:DJI
by AriasWave
1
$NDX $SPX $DJI forming ominous patternAs we mentioned yesterday, the TVC:NDQ is poised for a big move some time this month. After posting that, noticed this pattern. Was busy so didn't write it up. Was out all day celebrating daughter & nephew's bday🎉 Do you see it on the DJ:DJI & CBOE:SPX as well? We bring up the Head & Shoulder Pattern every so often. It signifies tops. HOWEVER, this pattern needs the confirmation of breaking the neckline (bottom line - support), especially with volume. TVC:RUT stays in channel the entire time #stocks NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA CBOE:SPX AMEX:IWM
NASDAQ:NDX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 08, 2023Key events: Japan - GDP (QoQ) (Q2) Canada - Employment Change (Aug) Canada - Unemployment Rate (Aug) On Thursday, the global stock markets faced widespread declines, with notable losses observed in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. These drops were primarily attributed to the performance of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Simultaneously, the US dollar strengthened following the release of US jobless claims data that fell short of expectations. Remarkably, initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased to 216,000 in the week ending on September 2nd, a drop from the revised figure of 229,000 from the previous week. These numbers marked the lowest weekly claims since February. Furthermore, a separate report indicated that US worker productivity in the second quarter did not display the vigor initially reported. Consistently, recent data bolsters the notion that the US economy continues to demonstrate resilience, potentially leading to an extended period of elevated US interest rates. In a surprising turn of events, Apple witnessed a staggering loss of approximately $200 billion in market capitalization over a mere two days. This substantial decline was attributed to reports suggesting that China is imposing restrictions on the use of iPhones by state employees. Apple stock daily chart This setback had a cascading effect on the broader US technology sector, leading to a decline in its overall performance. At the same time, shares of numerous significant Apple suppliers located in Asia also witnessed declines during Friday's trading. It's worth noting that China represents a substantial market for Apple, accounting for nearly a fifth of the company's total revenue. Additionally, both Apple and its suppliers play a crucial role in providing employment to thousands of workers in the region. This development comes just ahead of a highly anticipated Apple event scheduled for next week. During this event, the tech giant, valued at an impressive $2.78 trillion, is expected to unveil its new iPhone 15 lineup alongside innovative smartwatches. In the broader market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest gain of 57.54 points, equivalent to a 0.17% increase, reaching a level of 34,500.73. Conversely, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of 14.34 points, representing a 0.32% decrease, settling at 4,451.14. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite registered a more substantial drop of 123.64 points, equivalent to a 0.89% decrease, concluding the day at 13,748.83. NASDAQ Index daily chart S&P500 Index daily chart DJI Index daily chart In addition to tracking market dynamics, investors also paid close attention to remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams. He raised an intriguing question about whether monetary policy has reached a juncture where it could be considered adequately restrictive to bring about economic equilibrium. A recent Reuters poll of forex strategists underlines that the strength of the dollar is expected to pose challenges for most major currencies as the year nears its end. The enduring appeal of the US currency has indeed presented hurdles for other currencies in the global marketplace. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Throughout this week, the euro has witnessed a 0.5% decrease and has held steady at $1.0715 during the Asian trading session. Investors are presently evaluating the likelihood that the European Central Bank will opt for a status quo approach rather than moving forward with an interest rate hike in the upcoming week. EUR/USD daily chart On another front, the Japanese yen has descended to fresh lows, levels not witnessed in a span of ten months, with its current trading rate at 147.19 yen per dollar. The currency is inching ever closer to the critical 150 mark, a threshold where traders believe there's a substantial likelihood of government intervention to offer support and restore stability to the currency. USD/JPY H12 chart
by FOREXN1
16
Dow Jones on a continuous and strong uptrend in 2023Raising inclination trend has confirmed on the Dow Jones. What this means is that the rising trend is going up at a higher degree. A normal trend is around 45 degrees. A stronger trend is 60 degrees. and once it starts rallying above 60 degrees this is where GREED kicks in and you should prepare for downside. Also there is a strong Rising Channel which I'm sure countless range traders are loving at the moment as well as Trend traders. Price>200 RSI>50 Target 37,000
DJ:DJILong
by Timonrosso
1
SPY TARGET 807 Enjoy The Repricing Jerome. Crisis 24 ignite. CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions -142.1K? USM2 Barely able to contract the supply under 20M? Reserve Banks At Breaking Point - FORCED to stop hikes > lowering soon Money Market Funds 5.693T will look to exit UST's as momentum in the PMI picks up. Look familiar? Only this time we have global debasement where China / Japan will be forced to QE trillions to backstop their debt. All pointing to a chaotic melt up / readjustment of the US markets. The problem with printing trillions to prevent a crisis is that money then weaves itself into the fabric of the problem you tried to control. You CANNOT remove this capital used to plug the hole in the sinking ship. This market looks primed to turn and go straight full throttle vertical. Crisis 19 avoided Crisis 24 ignite.
AMEX:SPYLong
by FederalXBT
NDQ | Hidden in plain sight...This is a period of recession, a period when hands change. Last becomes first and first becomes last. Curiously, if you mix and match the main indices, you will get bored of the same shape appearing over and over again. They all appear in the same period. This stuff is hidden in plain sight... NDQ vs DJI SPX vs NYA NDQ vs RUI RUI vs NYA RUA vs DJI This one is full of small HnS. A little rough but okay. And an extra speculation: DJI vs SPX Question: Where do all these HnS lead to? Who is the final recipient? Since all these charts are comparative to one another. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
TVC:NDQ
by akikostas
6
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 01, 2023Key events: USA - Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug) USA - Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) USA - Unemployment Rate (Aug) USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug) As August drew to a close, US equities continued their upward momentum, driven by the excitement surrounding the forthcoming employment report for the same month. Maintaining a streak of four consecutive positive sessions, Wall Street's major indices wrapped up Wednesday with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which represents established companies, inched up by 0.1%. Simultaneously, the broad-based S&P 500 recorded a 0.4% increase, while the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite enjoyed a 0.5% ascent. NASDAQ index daily chart SPX index daily chart DJI index daily chart Nonetheless, it's important to highlight that despite recent gains, these major benchmarks are still set to end the month with declines. In August, both the DJI and Nasdaq Composite recorded approximately 2% declines, while the S&P 500 saw a decrease of 1.4%. Recent economic indicators, including a second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) that fell short of expectations and core inflation data released on Thursday, have injected optimism into investors. This optimism arises from the possibility that the Federal Reserve might be nearing the end of its series of interest rate hikes. In July, core inflation, as predicted, rose compared to June on an annualized basis. Despite this increase, the figures remained below the elevated levels seen in the previous year. The Federal Reserve, which has emphasized its data-driven approach to interest rate decisions, could interpret these reports as indications that their previous actions are starting to yield results. While their goal is to keep inflation in check with an annual growth rate of 2%, the central bank might opt to postpone a rate hike during its September meeting. Market futures largely reflect expectations of such a pause, with certain futures traders assigning probabilities to a 0.25% increase in November, effectively concluding the year. The forthcoming jobs report on Friday stands as another critical factor in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming month. Recent data has indicated that job openings this week were lower than anticipated. Furthermore, the jobs report is expected to reveal a slower rate of job creation compared to previous months. The Federal Reserve has been actively monitoring indicators that suggest the tight labor market is gradually easing, a development that would help alleviate inflationary pressures. Analysts anticipate the economy added 170,000 jobs last month, down from the 187,000 reported the previous month. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.5%. US nonfarm payroll Additionally, today also brings the release of the ISM manufacturing index, which is expected to show a reading of 47, an improvement from the previous reading of 46.4. In other news, Huw Pill, an economist at the Bank of England, has made an announcement that goes against market expectations. He intends to advocate for maintaining rates at 5.25% for an extended period, contrary to the market's anticipation of a 50 basis point increase to 5.75%. This statement was reported by the Financial Times. Pill expressed his support for this steadfast approach, citing its potential to ensure financial stability, gradually ease the impact on the economy, and effectively transmit higher rates into two- and five-year fixed-rate mortgages, which are commonly used lending instruments for property transactions in the UK. He made these remarks during a conference in South Africa. UK interest rate The situation seems to be unfolding without significant disruptions. Central banks worldwide are echoing similar sentiments, emphasizing their unwavering commitment to combatting inflation, which implies a prolonged period of higher interest rates, but not necessarily a constant upward trajectory. The US Dollar demonstrated strength against all currencies except the Japanese Yen. Recent data on unemployment benefits in the US showed a decrease to 228,000, surpassing median forecasts that had anticipated 236,000. USD/JPY daily chart This decline represented the lowest reading seen in the past four weeks. The Euro (EUR/USD) broke its three-day upward streak, declining to 1.0840 from the previous level of 1.0880. This shift in direction coincided with the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB) meeting minutes, which revealed concerns about inflation and a less optimistic growth outlook. Conversely, the British Pound (GBP/USD) strengthened against the US Dollar, reaching 1.2670, an increase from the previous rate of 1.2645. EUR/USD daily chart GBP/USD daily chart
by FOREXN1
4
DOW JONES sets course for the All Time High in the next 2 monthsDow Jones (DJI) held its 1D MA100 as Support and as projected on our analysis last week (see chart below), it formed a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up and rebounded: We now move to the 1W time-frame where this week's 1W candle is so far the strongest since July 17 and already recovered the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). After completing the standard -4.70% correction to the Channel's bottom, the norm within this pattern is to first post a +6.15% rise and ultimately complete the Higher High with a +9.00%. As a result, our short-term target is 36100 (+6.15%) and by the end of October 36960 (+9.00%), which is the All Time High since January 2022! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by TradingShot
4