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DIS (ESPN) - Sports Betting Season in common with CHDN, PENN, BYDIS Disney who owns ESPN has a few commonalities with sports betting and that's the NFL season ( Sept. - Feb.) * Last Sept. to Feb was a strong run for the markets, so comparisons used here to show sector trend. * Overlay SP500, NAS100 to know better than market * Overlay sports betting Churchill Downs (CHDN), Penn Gaming (PENN), and Boyds (BYD) Gaming * Current trend is with US states approving sports betting, not gambling is not used in legislative wordings.... * NFL season creates more betting than any other sport. ( except cricket mate...right?, Rugby7's, World Cup of Darts, no?!) * BYD pays ~ 0.7% Div., PENN no Div., and CHDN pays a ~2.3% Div, but DISNEY, who owns ESPN pays a ~ 3.0% Div. yield * BETA for betting is quite high, while DIS is low and near SP500 / NAS100 lines excluding the compounding dividend. * Don't bet, just invest. This sector in risky with aggressive ups. Comments for self. Post one comment if you look at this please (like/agree/disagree/fan/funny/WOT).
NYSE:DISLong
by Pokethebear
Flash note Dis-chem Pharmacies Ltd (DCP)Trade with caution on DCP, warns our Unum Trading Desk analyst Lester Davids! "The upward price momentum is strong however we trade just above the 200dma as well as at the prior support that was in place from November 2017 to May 2018. We also have an open "gap" at 3525c from the "gap" down on 4-May. The share now commands a 42 P/E . I advise caution on any new longs, possible the stock is a pending Short?" If you want to discuss these trading ideas, contact our Unum Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 3842920 or tradingdesk@unum.co.za
JSE:DCPShort
by MarkWeetman
Disney breaking out?Disney has been in a bullish pennant formation for awhile now. Price has been squeezing and is ready to make a large move. The Bollinger bands have been squeezing and we've been bouncing off the 50 level on the RSI each time, staying in bullish territory. We're about to get a bullish cross on the TSI which in my opinion would be a signal for another bull run for Disney. There's still the possibility this is a false break out, but it looks pretty good for now.
NYSE:DISLong
by That25RGuy
RISK ARB OPPORTUNITY: SKY BUYOUT There's been another big deal developing ($29-30B) so I figured I'd post another arbitrage, in this case, 'risk arb' or Merger Arbitrage. Fox needs to raise its offer of 10.75 pounds per share for the 61 percent of the British pay-TV company it doesn’t already own, in order to challenge Comcast’s 12.50 pounds per share bid. Comcast, which already won U.K. approval for its Sky approach, has a deadline of Friday to put the 22 billion pound ($29 billion) proposal to Sky shareholders under U.K. takeover rules....The tussle over Sky is part of a wider bidding contest between Comcast and Walt Disney Co. for the bulk of Rupert Murdoch’s media empire, as each tries to scale up to take on streaming competitors Netflix Inc. and Amazon.com faculty.chicagobooth.edu www.newyorkfed.org Although it's formally an arbitrage strategy, purists would argue that it's not a pure arbitrage as it incorporates speculative aspects and is not as riskless as other strategies such as convertible arbitrage which fully hedges deltas: The main basis in a stock-for-stock acquisition revolves around the idea that the target's stock will often trade at a lower market price compared to the exchange ratio that will apply once the deal is closed. Traders will purchase the target's stock and receive an excess value of the acquirer's stock when the deal is closed. To hedge risk, traders will short the same number of the acquirer's shares based on the exchange ratio. The objective is to capture the spread between the target's share price at market and the closing price based on the exchange ratio set by the acquirer. Spreads can be between 5-10% (median) for deals that close upwards of 55 days. Unlike other arbitrages, risk arbs can be done quite easily, but like all other strategies, can also become more efficient and complex if done professionally. Risk arb funds can also be good diversification for a portfolio as they often generate superior risk adjusted returns in poor markets. www.bloomberg.com
SEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
Waiting for that NFLX ShortNetflix risk is very high and reward very low. Worst of the FANG stocks for sure. Netflix has almost doubled this year with no mean reversion or accumulation of volume A pullback on netflix could see it lose 75% of its value if it returns to weekly volume node. I wouldn't usually short such a big gainer as NFLX, but the opportunity could present itself if it continues to rise as a parabola could short when that parabola breaks. I would watch for major momentum shifts downward, blow off tops, and break in upward trendlines to find long-term shorts with good R:R. Somewhat unrelated but if the global market goes bearish long term, Netflix would see the largest downside of the FANG stocks. I am not doom and gloom on the market or anything. I think finding some short opportunities both short term and long term is a good way to keep capital safe from unexpected market swings so we should always keep it on our minds and allocate some earnings to bearish plays when opportunity arises. By the way. Great alternative to NFLX in entertainment space is DIS: - Netflix net income: $671 million - Disney net income: $11.5 billion - Netflix market cap: $160 billion - Disney market cap: $149 billion Disney is at major support here, and a break down from a symmetrical wedge on the weekly is unlikely. Disney is generally safer being long established and dividend stock, but especially safe and bullish right now per its chart.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by autemox
THE WEEK AHEAD: DIS, AKS, P, TSLA, TWTR, X, MU, DISHWith most of the earnings heavy hitters in the rear view mirror, there isn't much to trade this week of quality from an earnings announcement volatility contraction standpoint, with DIS being the standout name. DIS announces on Tuesday after market close with a 30-day implied volatility of 25%, which is in the upper half of its 52-week range. The May 18th 96/97 16 delta short strangle pays .97 with a 75% probably of profit, which isn't horrible, but I'd rather have a background implied above 50%. One underlying that I don't usually trade earnings that caught my eye, however, was DISH, with an implied of >50%, which is at the top end of its 52-week range. It announces earnings on Tuesday before market open. You can naturally play it for earnings-related vol contraction (the May 18th 20-delta 30.5/37.5 short strangle's paying .88), but the chart may suggest taking a directional shot instead. I'll set out several bullish assumption plays in a separate post that would take advantage of its "being on its butt-dom." On the slip side of the coin, there are several individual names that have that ~50% metric I'm looking for that have already announced and that may be worth nondirectional plays that are just as -- if not more productive -- than the Disney earnings play if set up in the June monthly. Here they are, ranked by their 30-day implied volatility percentages: AKS (65.5) (straddle), P (59.2) (straddle), TSLA (53.9) (strangle), TWTR (49.5) (strangle), X (48.6) (strangle), and MU (47) (strangle).* On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is attractive, having all fallen below 35% 30-day implied: XOP (29.3), EWZ (28.5), SMH (26.9), EWW (24.9), FXI (22.8), so I'm unlikely to consider putting on a play in one of those unless something substantially changes as the week evolves. Moreover, my tendency is to set those up in the monthlies nearest 45 days until expiration and June (40 days 'til) is starting to "fall out of that window," with July (75 days 'til) being too far out in time. * -- You can naturally consider going defined risk with some of these, using iron flies instead of naked short straddles; iron condors instead of short strangles.
NYSE:DIS
by NaughtyPines
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