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DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.85% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 1.87% movement Bearish: 2.37% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 15095 BOT: 14218 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 73% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done) 26.5% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
XETR:DAX
by exlux
1
DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis DAX January 2023 Volatility Analysis Currently the volatility for DAX is at 6.28%, up from 6.13% last month. From the volatility current percentile we are located on 57th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement: Bullish : 5.686% Bearish : 5.885% With this in mind we have currently 84.1% that the market is going to stay within the next channel TOP Limit: 14850 BOT Limit: 13135 If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a : 34.43% to hit the previous monthly high 57.86% to hit the previous monthly low Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently Weekly Timeframe : 40% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH Monthly Timeframe : 66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BULLISH
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX40 Break out or fake out?Gm Today we opened DAX,with a gap which has been closed few hours later, and now we’re looking at price action near psychological level - 14 000. Bullish: (Higher low and support at point of control? ~13885?) In this moment I’m checking if price action forming triangle pattern and if it could break out and boost price from current level to ~14160 and even ~14220 where for me is a key level resistance point at this moment. Relative strength index line tested SMA from above and it’s going upward direction, but i have attention to lower times frames which do not give me right signs (RSI should cross SMA -15m/30m, bearish engulfing bar at 15m wasn't right sign.) Still waiting for more bullish confirmations in short term on price action. Bearish: In the other hand we have price action rejected at 0.618 fibonacci level and if this a local triangle formation it could get back to 13870 where was prominent demand, and as we can assume – double bottom with a candle weak confirming value area low. We are still under moving average ribbon and momentum still pressure for downward. Short term: Lower than 0.381 fibo → price going down 13 880/ 13 800 Higher than 0.618 fibo → going up 14 150/ 14 300 My prediction for now is mostly downward. But first I’ll wait to see what happens at drawed white triangle edge line. Then what will have place at 13 880 and 13 800 price levels. Anyway I don’t expect to price go higher than 200 moving average at 1h timeframe.
XETR:DAX
by NightTerm
Buying DAX at market.GER40 - Intraday - We look to Buy at 14302 (stop at 14229) Daily signals are bullish. A lower correction is expected. 20 1day EMA is at 14302. The 1 day moving average should provide support at 14300. We look to buy dips. We look for a temporary move lower. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 14488 and 14538 Resistance: 14450 / 14500 / 14550 Support: 14360 / 14300 / 14200 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by OANDA
DAX 30 Big PictureThe DAX as a ZigZag correction . Rules of the ZigZag correction . 1. Wave A must be an impulse or Leading Diagonal Triangle ✅ 2. Wave B must be any corrective pattern (ABC) ✅ 3. Wave b does not correct wave A more than 99% ✅ 4. Wave C must be an impulse or Ending diagonal Triangle ❓ 5. Wave C must be at least 70% of wave B from a price perspective ❓ 6. Wave C fails extremely rarely (strong wave C) ❓ Current course . The DAX formed a Leading Diagonal Triangle since the beginning of 2022, which can be represented as an ABCDE or 12345 wave. The DAX was able to break out strongly from the Leading Diagonal Triangle in recent weeks (since October), forming an abc correction. We bounced off the upper trendline. Further course In the last days, the DAX shows first weaknesses and we assume that the DAX has already formed its TOP and now another downtrend follows. If the assumption of the ZigZag correction is correct, now the DAX should form another 12345 structure to the downside, which should hold in the trend channel. There is also still the possibility that the DAX makes a final uptrend until about just above the upper trend line and only then crashes. Depending on how the economic events will develop, we see 2 correction scenarios as likely: 1. the German or European recession comes harder than currently assumed and the DAX corrects below 10,000€. 2. the recession can be halfway cushioned and thus the financial market calms down faster and the DAX forms a bottom at around 10,500 to 11,000€. We currently see the first possibility as more likely due to the economic environment. Interest rates will not be lowered in the foreseeable future. The real estate sector is under massive pressure. Many companies continue to struggle with the huge cost of energy and capital, and a large number of companies are still highly overvalued. A perfect sentiment for a bear market to continue for another 6-12 months. We will keep you posted!
XETR:DAXShort
by Consyder
2
DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.94% movement Bearish: 2.38% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14920 BOT: 14050 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600 25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 1.99% In case of bearish - 2.39% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14900 BOT: 14000 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.22%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 0.5th from ATR and 17th from VDAX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 1.99% for bullish 2.49% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 81.8% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14772 BOT: 13820 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 74% to hit the previous weekly high of 14250 27% to hit the previous weekly low of 13380
XETR:DAX
by exlux
German DAX trending higher Daily Insight Commentary: Monday - German Industrial Production m/m beats forecast this follows Friday’s strong September factory orders data German DAX +12% since October 13th Higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicates short term uptrend taking shape (daily chart) , however resistance in front of current price may push price lower before continuing any further advance. Current price 13,441 Key resistance at 13,555 , a break above resistance places 13,750 in sight for longs with a short term view (5 to 25 days), while short sellers may be aiming for a retest of the 12,950 support spotted at the 38.2% retracement from the 4 week high.
SKILLING:DE40Long
by Skilling
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.45% which declined from 3.59% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 36th percentile, and according to DVOL we are on 15th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a quiet market. And as a matter of fact we can that this was case for the last weeks but at the same time , one has to be aware that during this "quiet times", things can change radically. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 18.2% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 13880 BOT: 12920 This can also be translated as a 81.8% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 13500 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 13000
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX. Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 5.3% BULLISH Candle : 5.14% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 12385 TOP: 14302 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Breakout or Breakdown?The DAX has rallied significantly since the end of September after touching a major support range at 11,550 - 11,850 - the area that price bottomed in November of 2020 It is now pressuring the downtrend extending from the yearly highs and could be poised to break higher A convincing close above downtrend resistance would provide a great buying opportunity with near-term targets at 13,570 and 13,950 However, if trend resistance holds firm, a continued downside push looks likely, with a great opportunity to sell and chase price back to yearly lows
XETR:DAX
by dmoss94