DAX/GER - HOPE YOU CHECK LAST SHORT TRADETeam, with DAX
last week, we suggested shorting at 20515-25, and we reached 3 of our target
Today, we find an opportunity to go to LONG DAX at 20208-20215
STOP LOSS at 20182 - extension to 20165
Target at 20245-56 - please take partial and bring stop loss to BE
Target 2 at 20272-83
Daxanalysis
Mastering the German 40 Index: A Comprehensive Trading Strategy 👀👉 In this detailed video, I examine the complexities of trading the German 40 Index (DAX), sharing my personal trading plan and strategies aimed at identifying lucrative trade opportunities. Most importantly, my goal is to provide you with the essential tools to effectively navigate the indices markets. 📈✨
KEY HIGHLIGHTS:
✅ Trading Strategy Overview: I outline a structured approach to planning trades and identifying optimal trading opportunities.
✅ Technical Analysis Techniques: We explore concepts such as Wyckoff Theory and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) principles, emphasizing their application in real-world trading scenarios.
✅ Timeframe Analysis: The video guides you through analyzing higher timeframes to inform lower timeframe entries, ensuring a well-rounded trading strategy.
✅ Entry Points & Risk Management: Learn how to pinpoint entry points, set effective stop-loss orders, and establish profit targets to maximize your trading success. 🎯
✅ TradingView Features: I highlight essential features of TradingView, showcasing two advanced indicators: the Volume Profile and VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), which are crucial for intraday analysis and understanding market trends. 📊
🔔 Disclaimer: Trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct thorough research and consider your financial situation before engaging in trading activities.
Join me on this journey to enhance your trading skills and gain valuable insights into the German 40 Index! Don't forget to comment and if you found the info of value, giving this post a BOOST would be awesome! 🙏
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 4H Long Setup
Trade Idea:
- Long in the 4H FVG post-CPI wick grab, following a potential exhaustion of the ongoing short setup.
Confluence:
- FVG Zone: Price retraces into the 4H Fair Value Gap, providing a strong discounted entry point.
- Liquidity Grab: CPI wick likely cleared liquidity below, setting the stage for a bullish reversal.
- Dynamic Support: 4H Kijun aligns with FVG, reinforcing the zone as a high-probability support.
Risk-Reward:
- Tight stop-loss below the 4H FVG.
- Targeting 1:2+ RRR with initial profit-taking at 20,400 and extended targets toward 20,500 .
Quick Take:
If CPI triggers downside liquidity sweep, this setup offers a clean bullish reversal opportunity. Watch for confirmation before entry!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short position initiated within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) after a confirmed bearish structure and pre-market rejection.
- Confluence Factors:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Price retraces into a bearish FVG for a high-probability short entry.
- Break of Structure (BOS): Confirmed bearish break supports downside continuation.
- Kijun Resistance: 1H Kijun line aligns with the FVG, reinforcing dynamic resistance.
- Liquidity Grab: The price action indicates a sweep of liquidity above the FVG, creating strong rejection signals.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- Stop-loss set just above the FVG zone for tight risk management.
- 1:2.35 RRR as per chart, targeting liquidity zones below.
- Targets:
- TP1 near 20,309 , aligning with intermediate liquidity.
- TP2 around 20,250 for a deeper liquidity sweep.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: GER40 shows bearish signals with a weakening broader market sentiment.
- Volume Profile: Declining buy-side volume within the FVG zone signals limited bullish interest.
- Pre-Market Behavior: Rejection from the FVG aligns with pre-market bearish tendencies, further supporting the setup.
Execution Plan:
- Short entry within the FVG zone, managing risk with a stop-loss above the FVG.
- Strict adherence to the 1:2.35 RRR with partial profit-taking at TP1 and remaining at TP2.
- Monitor market conditions and invalidate if price reclaims the FVG or breaks the Kijun level.
Extra Note: Keep an eye on macroeconomic triggers that could cause sudden volatility, particularly during the European session. Let me know if further adjustments are needed!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 1H Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) following a clear bearish shift in market structure.
- Confluence Factors:
- Break of Structure (BOS): Price confirms a bearish break, with a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) reinforcing downside bias.
- FVG Rejection: Anticipating rejection within the 1H FVG as price retests this imbalance area, providing an optimal entry point.
- Kijun Resistance: Kijun line on the 1H timeframe aligns as a dynamic resistance level, further supporting bearish continuation.
- Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss above the FVG zone.
- Target: TP1 near liquidity at 20,306 ; TP2 at deeper liquidity grab around 20,260 .
Confluence Factors:
- Market Context: Indices showing signs of pullback after extended bullish momentum, with GER40 leading a potential retracement.
- Volume Signals: Declining buy-side volume during recent highs, indicating exhaustion and paving the way for downside.
- Liquidity Levels: Price action aligns with tapping liquidity from equal highs before driving into lower demand zones.
Execution Plan:
- Place short entries within the 1H FVG.
- Maintain tight risk management with a stop-loss just above the FVG zone.
- Reassess trade if price closes above the Kijun or invalidates the bearish structure.
Extra Note: Monitor macroeconomic news or EUR-related sentiment for potential catalysts that could impact volatility in GER40. Let me know if you'd like any additional details or adjustments!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Pre-Market Short Setup
Trade Logic:
- Setup: Short position initiated within the pre-market bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting the defined downside liquidity zones.
- Confluence Factors:
- Pre-Market Gap: Price retraced into the FVG formed during bearish pre-market movement, offering a low-risk, high-reward entry.
- Break of Structure (BOS): A confirmed bearish structure break reinforces downside momentum.
- Kijun Resistance: 1H and 4H Kijun levels align with the FVG, acting as strong dynamic resistance.
- Liquidity Grab: Recent liquidity sweep near the highs sets the stage for further bearish continuation.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR):
- Stop-loss set just above the FVG to maintain a tight risk.
- 1:3.83 RRR as per the defined target zones on the chart.
- Targets:
- TP1 near 20,267 , aligning with local liquidity.
- TP2 at 20,240 , deeper liquidity grab zone for full target execution.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: Pre-market signals and reduced buyer strength suggest increased selling pressure ahead of European market open.
- Economic Indicators: Risk-off behavior in broader markets supports bearish bias.
- Volume Profile: Weak buyer volume within the FVG zone adds confluence for downside continuation.
Execution Plan:
- Place short entries within the FVG zone with a stop-loss just above it.
- Strictly adhere to the 1:3.83 RRR, with partial profit-taking at TP1 and the remainder at TP2.
- Monitor the European open for any shifts in momentum that could invalidate the setup.
Extra Note: Stay updated on economic news or key macro triggers that could influence GER40's short-term price action. Let me know if you'd like further refinements!
GER 40 Trade Log GER40 1H Long Setup: Entering at 0.5 FVG Level
I'm eyeing a long position on the GER40 (DAX) based on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown of my trade setup:
🔹 Entry Point:
- Entering at the 0.5 level of the hourly Fair Value Gap (FVG).
🔹 Risk Management:
- Risk: 1% of the trading account.
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2.
- Stop Loss (SL): Placed below the 1H Kijun-sen line to account for potential volatility.
🔹 Trade Idea:
- Expecting a retracement to the FVG before resuming the upward trend.
- Aware that price action might slice through our SL, but willing to see how it unfolds.
📊 Technical Analysis:
- Ichimoku Cloud: The price is above the cloud, indicating a bullish trend. Placing the SL below the 1H Kijun-sen provides a safety net against sudden dips.
- FVG Levels: Fair Value Gaps often act as magnets for price retracements. The 0.5 level is a strategic entry point to capitalize on the potential bounce.
🌐 Macro Factors Supporting the Trade:
- Economic Resilience: Recent data shows that the German economy is demonstrating resilience amid global uncertainties, boosting investor confidence.
- ECB Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank's accommodative stance continues to support liquidity in the markets, which is positive for equities.
- Political Developments: Speculation around leadership changes, such as discussions about President Macron's position, might lead to increased investor optimism in European markets.
- Global Market Sentiment: A general shift towards risk-on sentiment globally can propel the GER40 higher.
📝 Note:
Trading always carries risk. While the setup aligns with both technical and macroeconomic factors, unforeseen events can impact the outcome. Stay vigilant and adjust your strategy as needed.
Let's monitor this trade and see how it plays out. Feel free to share your thoughts or any insights you might have!
GER 40 Trade LogGER40 Short Position (Discretionary)
Rationale :
- Overextension: The GER40 index appears significantly overextended without substantial fundamental support.
- Rising German Bond Yields: An increase in German government bond yields suggests a shift towards higher borrowing costs, potentially impacting equity valuations.
- MACD Divergence: A notable divergence between the MACD indicator and price action indicates a weakening bullish momentum, often preceding a trend reversal.
- CVD Divergence: Divergence in the Cumulative Volume Delta points to a disparity between buying and selling pressures, signaling a potential downturn.
Trade Details :
- Position: Short GER40 via market order
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
Note: This trade is discretionary and anticipates a sharp correction at market open. Despite the lack of a formal signal, the confluence of technical indicators and macroeconomic factors supports this decision.
DAX - TIME HAS COMEI hope you all remember yesterday, when we said only hit our price then we short.
PATIENCE is the key.
but now we are prepare to SHORT once the price is hit our limit order at 19469-18482
STOP LOSS can be set at 19525 - can extend to 19575 depend on your risk
Target 1 at 19433-28 - once it hit, take some partial and bring stop loss to BE to protect the trade
target 2 at 19389-72
target 3 at 19367-48
DAX/GER - PREPARE FOR THE BATTLETeam, earlier we went long for scalping only.
but now we are prepare to SHORT once the price is hit our limit order at 19469-18482
STOP LOSS can be set at 19525 - can extend to 19575 depend on your risk
Target 1 at 19433-28 - once it hit, take some partial and bring stop loss to BE to protect the trade
target 2 at 19389-72
target 3 at 19367-48
NOTE: NO rush of an entry, until the price is reach. enter slowly with proper risk management.
Heading into pullback resistance?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 19,198.60
1st Support: 18,949.40
1st Resistance: 19,439.34
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DAX looks unwell at these highsIt's been a tough few weeks for the DAX. But if the bearish reversal pattern on the daily chart comes to fruition, things could get a worse. I also factor in price action clues on the monthly candlestick chart, which again suggests things could deteriorate further before they get better.
MS.
DAX/GER30-40 - ALL THE WAY FOR RECOVERYTeam,
it has been a while since we are trading this.
Yesterday we did not post, we tried, but hit stop loss
then later I got all the money back as I expect the target hit. but we were using very tight stop loss, no room for movement
Today we are entering between 19050-19060 with STOP LOSS at 19035
Target 1 - 19086-95
Target 2 - 19126-335
Target 3 - 19211-19230
Please NOTE: once the price hit the 1st target, bring STOP LOSS TO BE. REMEMBER to take partial profit.
EUR/USD: PAT + VPA 10/21/2024Good morning,
I will be monitoring the daily candle close today, anticipating a bullish pullback or reversal to develop over the next few weeks.
Several indicators have pointed to this:
1. The weekly chart has surpassed the previous high established on December 25, 2023. Currently, the price is attempting to retest the Demand zone that led to the breakout of that high..
2. The weekly demand zone is identified between 1.0775 and 1.0825. Pay attention to the key level at 1.080, as it appears to be setting up as a robust support level for the currency pair.
3. The market has declined approximately 400 points since September 27, 2024, showing minimal pullbacks on a daily basis. Notably, this price drop has formed a double top without a genuine next line test. I anticipate that prices will rebound to around 1.100 in the coming weeks. A break below 1.100 could trigger a long-term retracement back to the highs at 1.200.
Volume signature indicates that market makers are gradually exiting the trend. The weekly outlook remains bullish and is expected to dominate. It's important to note that the weekly chart is currently retesting the bearish flag it broke out of between June 24, 2024, and August 19, 2024.
TVC:DXY
OANDA:EURUSD
XETR:DAX