BITCOIN ANALYSIS - THE BIG SHORT - WELL NOT SO BIG ACTUALLYThis will be my first trade on the ever popular BitiusCoinius
The daily channel gives us resistance at the 5847 mark
Based on previous sellers and the oversold nature we can expect a pull back
The target is a confluence area which coincides with 38.2% retracement
Happy hunting
Cyrptocurrency
BTC Short - 6 Steps to maximizing profits on our tradeShout out to everyone who is following me on this trade. If you missed my previous post on you should go back and check it out as these posts are directly correlated.
Making educated trades means making peaceful trades.
FOMO and FUD are very real emotions that EVERYONE experiences as we embark on this journey. If you are anything like me we’ve excitedly hopped into a trade, and fearfully hopped out. Many times losing small cash positions with slightest move in the opposite direction. In the off chance our original “gamble” WAS right, the regret sinks in thinking “man if only I hung in there!” I’m done with this type of trading!!! I hope… ;)
6 Steps to maximize profits on our BTC short
Step #1 - Risk vs Reward (red & blue back ground)
I’ve learned this is an essential key to have in place for EVERY trade I make. (For an investment/HODL coin not so much, although I do believe you should know when to cut your loses) After our analysis is done, and we are ready to enter a trade, we should have a stop loss in place incase the market doesn’t move in our favor. Like @marcpmarkets and many others have said, we don’t try to make the trade work, we just read the charts and act accordingly. For this trade I entered a at 4400, a little later lower than the 4450 I wanted but, we are in. Had this moved much higher than 4500, I would have been out.
Step#2 - Market Structure - Confirm Trend lines (white) & Head and Shoulders pattern (yellow)
Confirming a trend is important. I won’t say that we have 100% created a new trend however I will say that we have 100% broken the previous bull trend. At this point I am looking for lower highs’ and lower lows. @goldbug1 pointed out the potential head and shoulders pattern that is commonly seen in a bearish reversal.
Step #3 - Add to position
I’m sure there will be a varying opinions on this maneuver and I am open to feed back (from experienced traders that have proof of successful trades). A good friend of mine who has been trading for decades said to me “when you know you are right, feel free to give it some more gas” And that’s what I am looking to do here. If we see a small bounce back up to the 4325-4350 range I am looking at adding to this position. If it starts to move against our plan, we are hedged in our original position so we can avoid/minimize a loss. However if it continues to go in our direction… more $$$$$ which is the goal
Step 4 - Profit Zones
This ties into our Step #1 of Risk vs Reward. We have to have firm targets to lock in our profits. Please learn from my mistake. Just a few weeks ago I threw away a 14% profit because of greed for more and ended up at 0%. I over estimated the momentum in a short and didn’t withdraw at profits at $3500. It was a stupid move and reinforced my resolve to take profits. We can NEVER be mad at profits. Buying at the ultimate Apex and selling at the base is near impossible, we can’t squeeze all the juice out of an orange. Let’s be happy with PROFITS. Did I mention we should be happy with profit? In this case our goal is 10% with Our targets being $4125 for $25% and $4000 for 75%
Step 5 - RSI (bullish divergence)
As we mentioned in the previous post, RSI can be a great tool for monitoring overbought and over sold conditions. We are looking for lower lows on prices but higher lows on the RSI. This is a supporting indicator that momentum is about to turn in the opposite direction. In this case it would be called a bullish divergence.
Step #6 - Volume
Over all we are in a BULL market with BTC. There is no signs of any massive sell offs and returning to extremely low prices. Because of that, I am looking for selling pressure
Digibyte: 46% GainDigibyte is probably on some of your radar, as it is mine. We had a break out recently, followed by a retest of the new minor support. I believe Digibyte have more room to run up, but it is best to wait for a second bounce on the new support. Which is what I will be doing. There is also a bullish bat formation forming soon as well, it can be potentially a reason for entry. This is a one target trade as indicated on chart. What are your thoughts?
Trade with care.
ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughtsTurns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700
So, I took a look at the Bitcoin history, as we have time right?
It seems, the excitement about bitcoin, has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market
But, previously it was not the case.
So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II.
(Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!)
Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted.
There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too.
Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are;
- Financial troubles in Greece
- Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event
- EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin ( this is my take )
There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin bubble.
Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again.
I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area.
Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC prices and other BTC exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably.
Thats all folks. Tell me what you think
Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now
A bit more hardtime?I hate to think or say but. I am not liking the follow up reaction's volume or depth coming from 3900-4000. Not saying doomsday BUT there might a probability that , the wedge we are forming now, might break out downside and form a "Head and shoulder"'s patterns' right shoulder. And we might go down to 3550-3600 to find a bottom at the bottom of weekly charts trend channel bottom.
Just to keep in mind
Bitcoin Triple Top and DivergencesBitcoin performed dramatically these days.
However, It looks like there is more short opportunity than long.
-triple top
-divergences
Goldman Sachs commented Bitcoin might go up to 4827 USD but also it could correct until 2221 USD
Risk 500 USD take more than 1000 USD profit.
BCCBTC: Buy OpportunityBitcoin Cash has been showing a lot of positive outlook. Although I believe a correction is underway, I do not believe it will so severe, since Bitcoin is going through a correction itself. If we get a sideway channel here. We can look to go long again to previous resistance.
Trade with care.
BTC double needle today on daily chart :D up up up!BTC traders taking profits and selling off but there are too many big institutions with deep pockets trying to get in so all the selloffs have been continuously rejected for 2 days and we have formed a double needle meaning traders may stop selling off their positions and go long again with the institutions!!
Hopefully this idea is true :) I am a bit of a dreamer
BTC TO DA MOOOON!