Revised BTC Legthening Cycles Model Recently I tried to make the closest recreation of the model I use to trade BTC on TV, but I'm fairly new, made some mistakes, left out some data, and maybe didn't explain myself right about some things. I relied on an indicator I found to mark the halving dates that marked the wrong dates. By the time I noticed the mistake it was too late to edit my work.
The general idea is that BTC is experiencing increasing length in it's halving cycle structure, and as a result, we are only mid cycle at the time of writing, with another giant move up forecasted. BTC is consolidating right now, and as long as it stays in the consolidation zone bars I drew in yellow, it should retrace back to the 60k area, and then explode in a fit of euphoria induced buying. The longer it takes the higher the potential top will be. BTC has hit the purple line each other time it's halved, a line that frequently corresponds with the 1.618 fib.
Also, BTC likley reacts to price memory events, the 367d point (first cycle peak) in this cycle and the previous cycle have corresponded with a downturn, in 2016 it was a shakeout. following that logic, the price should react at around the 526 day event (cycle 2 peak, oct17) If we aren't out of consolidation by then it could pull us up, if we are flying by then, it could push us back down.
Of course, the predictions of this model could be invalidated completely, I will know for sure by mid November. There's still a lot more data that I need for my model to really make it accurate, but with as few cycles as we have to work with this is the best my work can be. For example I DO NOT EXPECT that the ~753d till next top calculation will be correct, I expect a changing variable there just like the overall cycle length change. It will likley be close, but there's a wide margin of error (+ or - ~50days), considering the growth rate implied by the coinmarketcap halving countdown.
There's always a chance that we've seen the ATH and the run is over, but when you look at price action through this lens, it's obvious that there's still plenty of room for amazing things to happen. Shakeouts can take many forms, and with all the big money that is in BTC now anything could happen, including 100k+ or breaking the green line and having a crash unlike anything that's ever happened. If I had to bet on those two scenarios tho, I'm putting money on a double bubble bull run. Once whales grab enough coins from cowards and inexperienced traders that think they can trade this range without getting trapped and liquidated, once we are at maximum fear, they'll pump it big. Summer ends, people start thinking about money again and return to the market, volume increases, whales pump it, the pump acts like a lure to bring people back to the market, new ATH. That's how I see this going. Time will tell.
