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Cycles

Mayer Multiple Long-term Trend SignalsI found this to be an interesting look at the Mayer Multiple indicator and the history of Bitcoin as it relates to trend and cycle changes. I am not sure if someone may have shared this in the past but I thought either way it would be a good time to share now. To provide some guidelines to what is shown here: - The arrows are shown within the chart and the indicator to help show the correct timing of each occurrence (To the best of my ability anyway) - White arrows represent cycle tops. The Mayer Multiple line crosses over the Threshold (red dotted line) usually shortly before the top (This is setup by default). To note this did not happen in 2019. - The red arrows represent the end of the bull run and the start of a long to short-term (late 2019-early 2020) bear market. The Mayer Multiple line crosses down the solid red horizontal line (I added this line). - The green arrows represent the bottoms of each bear market. The Mayer Multiple line crosses down or touches (March 2020) the solid green horizontal line (I added this line). Other interesting finds: - Both 2017 and 2020 showed where the Mayer Multiple line did break back up over the solid red horizontal line shown but still after fell back under to resume the bear market. - For the 2013 double top the Mayer Multiple line just touched the solid red horizontal line shown, it never dropped underneath. Could be used for a future reference but just a good chance that was an occurrence during the time of a younger much cheaper bitcoin. Does this always have to work? No. But this has so far has been accurate during the history of this asset. This alone personally does not make feel Short on bitcoin as there are other indicators and factors for me that make it so. I wanted though to share this as it is pretty interesting to look at how accurate it has been (long-term only) and I hope to provide something different for everyone to look at. ***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
BNC:BLXShort
by WITSIT
2
EXPR 69-day-cycleEXPR has experienced 3 recent higher lows that have all been spaced ~69-days apart by my count. Further the BBs are getting even tighter indicating a potential big move in price. RSI, OBV, MACD all also pointing to more upside. Fib numbers and previous price levels are used as potential price targets for the next leg up. See Chart. Based upon the 69 day cycle the next "low" shouldn't occur until late September 2021. Further last run-up had a 45-day period between the low and high. Expecting similar 45-day cycle for next leg up with the next low to occur near the mid-line of the progression channel and the 0.78 fib. Not financial advice.
ELong
by Akksujean
Natural Gas Breakout is Imminent Natural Gas has already been bullish over a trend duration (3 months or more) as it recovered from the Covid Global Deflation. Now Natural Gas is quietly setting up for a bullish TAIL Breakout, i.e. the start of the next bull market in energy and commodities. To call the next commodity supercycle is a little early but we can see several factors hinting at that over the coming 1-3 years. Regardless, we need to trade the market in front of us, and as such we only really care about the next 3 months when it comes to near-term risk management. Over the next 2-3 months I would not be surprised to see Natural Gas hit a multi-year high between $4 and $6. Given that inflation is non-linear and is really accelerating, its conceivable it could go to $10 in a major commodity reflation move. Our Macro Nowcasting Machines with a 60-90% success rate in predicting growth and inflation 3-5 months out (the forecast gets more accurate the closer we get) says that Quad 2 growth and inflation accelerating will peak just before the summer. April-May time period. Following that will be a decelerating of growth and inflation, so we will have to risk manage that drawdown proactively. But we are not there yet so we must focus on Natural Gas's upside in the immediate term. The same holds true for commodities broadly, including uranium, fertilizer, agriculture, crude, and copper/industrial metals. Looking at the 1H timeframe we can see a healthy consolidation of higher lows and volume/momentum indicators that are not near being overbought. The volatility signal shows volatility can go much lower which is a good thing for price. Breakout is imminent. Looking at Natty through the lense of market positioning, the net long position in natty more than doubled the week before last (last week's data comes out tomorrow, will provide an update) which is a huge move. The 3month average net long was added in a single week. But the max net long position over 3Y lookback is 2.5x the current net long. In summary, Natty is not crowded, it is not a consensus position, and has significant upside. If you haven't been hedging for inflation that last 5-10 months where have you been?
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Ludwig_Von_Mises
1
Bitcoin Analyze (Counting Waves)!!!hello, Today, I tried to find the end of microwave 4 of main wave C . Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ) Timeframe 4h ⏰ First, I have to say sorry for the busy chart, but I suggest to you please spend some minutes on this post, probably useful (This is just my idea). Location🌊: Bitcoin's Correction has started around 64200$ (The Corrective structure is Zig Zag 5-3-5 ). I believe that end of microwave 4 of main wave C is Triple Three Corrections type (WXYXZ) . What is my aim 🎯? Answer: I want to find the end of microwave 4 of main wave C or where will microwave 5 of main wave C start ?! I want to say some of the necessary concepts for Triple Three Corrections and then compare them with our chart's conditions (Let's go): The corrective structures are labeled as WXYXZ. The corrective structures are labeled as WXYXZ. They are an 11 swing structure. The subdivision of wave W, wave Y, and wave Z can be a zigzag , a flat, a double three of smaller degree, or a triple three of smaller degree. The Wave X can be any corrective structure including a stand-alone triangle. The Fibonacci ratio relationships are as follows. Wave X will retrace anywhere from 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, or 88.6% of wave W.Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W or it can become an impulsive wave three. The second wave X will retrace the wave Y in the same aforementioned Fibonacci retracement levels as it did the wave W. The second wave X structure does not have be the same structure as the first wave X. The Wave Z target area to finish the triple three correction will be a Fibonacci extension 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of the wave W. one of the standard templates of three corrective structure combinations that can form triple three corrections == this particular one is a double three wave W followed by the first wave X being a zigzag . Likewise as the wave W, the wave Y is a double three. This is followed by a zigzag second wave X connector. The wave Z ends with another double three. now I want to compare my chart with upper conditions: The corrective structures are labeled as WXYXZ. They are an 11 swing structure== I was able to find 10 swing structures and I think that we are on the eleventh swing (Wave (Z)). The subdivision of wave W, wave Y, and wave Z can be a zigzag , a flat, a double three of smaller degree, or a triple three of smaller degree. The Wave X can be any corrective structure including a stand-alone triangle == our waves have these shapes. Wave W is a double three Wave == the wave (W) is a double three Wave✅ // Any three ✅ Wave X will retrace anywhere from 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, or 88.6% of wave W == Wave (X1) has complied.✅ Wave Y can not pass 161.8% of wave W or it can become an impulsive wave three == Wave (Y) has complied. ✅// The wave (Y) is a double three Wave✅ Wave X will retrace anywhere from 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, or 88.6% of wave Y == Wave (X2) Has retraced 161.8%, it Has not complied but I am talking about the standard template ❌ //Any three ✅ The second wave X(X2) structure does not have be the same structure as the first wave X(X1) == This item has complied ✅ The Wave Z target area to finish the triple three correction will be a Fibonacci extension 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of the wave W .== The wave (Z) ends with another double three.// My aim 🎯 If you read my explanation carefully, you will know that my counting waves are really close to one of the standard templates of three corrective structure combinations that can form triple three corrections. Where is the end of Wave (Z) ?! My idea : Structure of Wave (Z) is (Flat 3-3-5), and I think that we are on microwave C or B of microwave ((Y)) of Wave (Z). The End of Wave (Z) (End of Main Wave 4 == My aim🎯) : Target 1 : 41315$ until 40840$ (Monthly Resistance 1+ Fibs Cluster) Target 2 : 4 3400$ (The Wave (Z) target area to finish the triple three correction will be a Fibonacci extension 61.8%, 100%, or 123.6% of the wave (W))/ If Price goes up more than 43400$, my counting waves will fail❗️. Similarities that we are seeing on my post 👇, verify my counting waves too:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/vcxg8KKO-Bitcoin-Analyze-2018-VS-2021/ Also, still, I am believing in Bitcoin Long-term Analyze (Monthly Time frame) 📆: Please read this post carefully ( I ❤️ LOVE ❤️ THIS POST😀)👉https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/PTviG7sS-Bitcoin-Long-term-Analyze-Monthly-Time-frame/ My Suggestion : please do NOT buy Coins for Midterm and Long-term investment until the market finds a way.// my idea, BTC will see less than 28800$ //Over 43780$ my Counting waves will fail and we can think about buying coins . Thanks for reading this Long text 🙏💐. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ 'like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe
by pejman_zwin
28
Bitcoin cycles explained by date ranges and retesting the 1.618 Every bitcoin cycle gets a retest of the previous cycle 1.618 fib extension level from previous bear market low to that cycles bullrun high The green lines pointing out those are the halving - The bullrun begins The pink lines pointing the retest of the 1.618 + The start of the next leg up to the high of that bullrun The red lines are pointing the bullrun highs Now if you take those dates from previous cycle, i see the possibility of the next leg up to finish this bullrun. Please let me know what you think of this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by tradebeertje
Bitcoin Analyze ⚔️2018 VS 2021⚔️Hi, I have come back again with another Competition , please pay attention to my chart ( BTCUSDT-2018-2021 ) and answer me, first , How many Similarities do you see in my chart? If you answer true, I will send you Airdrops 😂. Second , Do you agree with me or not !? 🙏 For more info, Please visit my post 👉https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/vcNphXFB-Bitcoin-Analyze-Descending-Channels-Gartley-Patterns/ Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe.
by pejman_zwin
31
Bitcoin Analyze (Mirror ⚖️)!!!HI, JUST one question, How many Similarities do you see in my chart? If you answer true, I will send you Airdrops 😂 😎🧐😊 For more info, Please watch my previous post👉https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/vcNphXFB-Bitcoin-Analyze-Descending-Channels-Gartley-Patterns/ Do not forget to put S top loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅ ' like' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends, Thanks, and Trade safe.
by pejman_zwin
20
Repost and Update of 'Golden Bull Cycle' (Orig. Trading Shot)Golden Bull Cycle originally posted by Trading Shot on Trading View. The basic theory is that Bitcoin spends approximately equal amounts of time going from the bear market low to the halfing compared to the halfing to the bull market peak. I've added Fib extensions based on the previous bull cycle peak and bear market low. We see on all cycles a struggle at breaking the 1.618 fib extension, especially in 2013. The following bull market peaks seem to line up with the 2.212 and 2.414 Fib extension. The trendline connecting bull market peaks from 2013 to 2017 give a projected target for the 2021 peak, also around the fib extension levels of the previous peaks. This cycle gives a predicted peak date around the end of September at levels in the 200 thousands. Although this is the first cycle to experience a stock market crash so the bull run may have been delayed and perhaps this pattern may be broken.
BNC:BLXLong
by Mamocoin
BTC analysis: Why 20k could be the bottom.NFA NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This is just my personal point of view. Hello everybody, in this analysis I've chosen to use the basics: Stoch RSI, MACD, RSI... Along with other tools like: Log Fib, Bottom Ind, Etc. First of all, I'd like to explain what kind of info can be retrieved from this chart. This chart notices about one clear as crystal thing: BTC price tends to go upwards with time, and that price increase tend to desaccelerate with time, also known as diminished returns . Next thing that should be explained is when BTC resumes an uptrend and when it does the opposite. That would be the identification of "cycles". According to popular media, BTC usually increases its price once it's getting closer to its next halvening date and to summarize the theory, BTC has four year cycles as a cyclical asset. My view is that BTC is effectively a cyclical asset where those c ycles are getting extended / longer and that sooner or later, probably by 2024, that extension of cycles won't fit with halvening dates. So what is going on? It' easy to spot that BTC went superbullish from its inception in 2009 to 2011, then crash, then first halvening, then a first "middle cycle peak" by 2013 and after a massive crash a new upward trend pushed the price to a new ATH by early 2014 as a "final cycle peak". Then same history repeated, price went downwards til next halvening which happened in 2016 and a massive bullrun by 2017 which was stopped by some big correction in the summer of that year. Then you got bear period for a year, a great bullrun by early 2019 summer and then our "current cycle" started. To avoid overextending this, what is my point ? My point is that "mid cycles" doesnt exit. Every main cycle has a bullrun, a bear season, and a resume for another final bullrun; and those trends are getting shorter as you can see in the chart checking the measured time bars. What does this mean for the average guy? Well, it's going to be harder to spot if you are in a bullish or bearish trend, but the good news is that those trend are gonna last a little less than previous ones. Whom benefits this? That's easy. Investors and good traders. Average trader is the only one losing here as he wouldnt know what is going on. In this main chart, you can see a log BTC/USD view using a tool which has recognized extremely well the bands which BTC has been using consistently as supports and resistances for its entire history. The black lines are the edges between what we should consider the top and bottom. Any candle going higher than the upper black line would be an extraordinary event pushed by extremely welcomed good news. On the other hand, any candle going lower than the lower black line would be an extraordinary event pushed by extremely spurned bad news. To date, upper black line has never been broken. On the other hand, lower black line has been pierced one time before when the uncertainty took the stock market back in March 2020 and after a massive black swan event and consequently crash, the fear spreaded to crypto market. To summarize this, only another black swan event should be able to drop the price below the black line, and in fact that event would happen, there are extra support zones which should stop the crash as it did back in March 2020. As you can see in this zoomed chart, even if that black swan event would happen this week, price should keep above 12k. And if everything goes well, price should s top crashing around 20k . s3.amazonaws.com Weekly Stoch RSI showing up longest downtrend that it has ever experienced. It's worthy of attention to realize about that every time BTC has touched these levels, Stoch RSI has bounced off providing at least a relief rally. s3.amazonaws.com Weekly MACD showing up biggest crash ever for MACD levels, hitting lowest point ever for BTC. This metric shows up a possible reversal for the short-term as relief-rally and a feasible macro-trend change for mid-term as most optimistic scenario. s3.amazonaws.com Weekly RSI showing up a multiyear weekly rsi support. Any support or resistance drawed line requires at least three pivot points, so there are big chances about RSI could bounce off from that point. s3.amazonaws.com Daily RSI showing up a multimonthly daily rsi resistance. As you can see, this chart summarizes pretty well how every pump attempt from previous wave downwards has concluded as a weaker pump than previous one as that is being translated in that RSI trendline which so far has been unbreakeable. Irretrievably, this trendline will get pierced sooner or later as even if the same trading loop keeps happening, the RSI would be pushed every time closer to the bounce-off point edge. s3.amazonaws.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by diversionlulu
5
A buy amid selloffFew stocks are as well positioned as BABA's stock in face of an imminent crash. First, because the price is already discounted to the levels before the last bull. Second, before the fundamentals are still quite strong. Third, and most important, because the majority of indicators are showing signs for a reversal. The vertical lines divide the price cycles according to the troughs of the Volume Osciallator. Historical analysis of these troughs show that they are coinciding with the start of a bull. We are currentlyat a trough. The OBV line is showing a wide gap above the mark price despite months of steady decline since the Chinese government started clamping down on the giant. This indicates people are still holding to their investment and that's unlikely to change with a market correction, which would only bring the price to the lower monthly Bollinger Band, which is also the POC shown. I don't expect nearing the ATH anytime soon, but a pull back up to around 240 seems to be very likely not so far from now.
NYSE:BABALong
by MontyMacht
Massive Correction coming in the financial markets!!DXY SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY SMP Strategy Market Direction: Long Position Chart time frame - MONTHLY Timeframe - 4-5 Months You will see a very strong USD move to the north which will drive down commodity levels, Metals and the crypto market. This may last for 4-5 months so hold on!! Plenty of opportunities in the second half of the year! A – Activating Event Market will meet support in zone @ current levels - ... . In order to enter into this trade, the pair MUST be in line with my Entry Procedure.... B – Beliefs Market will move towards the first Target 1 level @ 110.00 C - Fundamentals that may affect the pair N/A D - Trade Management Entered @ 92.8 Stop Loss @ ..... Trailing Stop Loss@..... Target 1 @ 110.00 Target 2 @ .... Risk/Reward @ 1.4 Happy trading :) Follow your Trading plan, Remain disciplined and Keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
TVC:DXYLong
by SMPTrader