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Cycles

Long-term look at SPXWe are in the point of great uncerainty. This point in fact repeats every month since the beginning of February 2018 since all the market idleness has vanished. If the month closes around this level where it is now it will mean another big-ass red candle right in our face after already the October one. The analysts see the recession coming soon. The bad news comeing from China, oil markets, Fed makes us wonder is it already the end of this credit expansion? The recessions have one thing in common: you can only see them after they already had done the damage. That is sad. But let's be optimistic. Analysis of the supports and resistance will appear in another Idea. In this Idea I want to focus on one thing I have not posted before but wanted to. MACD has signalled the strong sell order in november, with December (so far) confirming the slope. Moreover -22 on MACD oscillator has never been achieved with just 3 month bars (if we ignore the small one from October, it is just 2 bars, periods!). A strong trend here is visible. There are still a few trading days left. We will see if how it will affect the yearly performance.
SP:SPX
by Slimsy
THE KING - Where we have been and where we are going ~Bitcoin macro cycles~ 2013 bear market highlights: 87% pullback from peak ($1,162 - $152) Took roughly 400 days to bottom out Price found support right above .88 Fib level 2018 bear market prediction: If we assume correlation between historical price action and future price action, BTC will find its bottom at between $2,500-$2,700 in mid January of 2019 This scenario would satisfy all three conditions of previous BTC bottoms 1) 87% selloff ($20,000 to $2,600) 2) 400 days from highest high to lowest low 3) Price bouncing right above the .88 Fib level Give a like and a follow if you found this TA interesting and would like to see more of my content. I will be doing more charting like this going into 2019 and beyond. Cheers! ___________________________ *This is not investment advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by smythca1
Going Long Bitcoin on Daily Cycle LowI believe that the cycle low is in. Its a bit short at 45 days but since the move down was so aggressive, its not uncommon to have a short cycle. I've been taking some small trades the past few days and I had sold a long at $3700 but I thought there was a good chance we would make another move lower yesterday. Since the rally held up and we've closed an hourly over $4150, I think the low could be in so I'm in for good. Yes, we can pause here then end up with a big move down to new lows. I'll stop out 50% if we make new lows and then look to buy back lower. Way too late in the cycle to be shorting. My goal is to carry this long for 15-30 days but this depends on price action. I think we'll see a move to $5500 then it will stall and come back down and either make new lows in February or retest the lows. There's always a chance we just rally strong and this ends up being a major low. Right now I don't think that is the case as I think the weekly cycle needs another daily cycle to finish, but cycle counts can be wrong. I have bought back part of the position that I sold near the top. This is my first long term long position since early 2017. I announced that I was starting to move to long term holdings to cash in this post -- on Nov 29, 2017 The price was around $10k and it took me 2 months before I was fully cash on my long term investment. I always buy and sell long term position multiple times over months to get an average price. The highest I sold was $17k. Just the same, it will take me months to buy back my position. I sold my last tranche at $13k on 1-20-2018 and that was the first time I shorted bitcoin ever You can see my target was $7500. We hit $6000 just 4 weeks later. This is also a good one. Worth reading if you want to understand how markets work -- You can read my history as I generally played every bounce fairly well (but not all of them). My best year trading ever. The reason I post this is because when I say I'm going long, its meaningful and not just some random dude on TV. But still, if you are trading, use a damn stop and have a plan if we go lower.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by rzmb44
34
SMH: Rally Toward $98.00, but Ultimate Fate is $80.00 Here's a quick take on SMH: * The monthly cycle is falling and has at least 2-3 months more downside coming into the half-cycle low * Look for a bounce toward 97.00 to 98.00; expecting short sellers to re-emerge there; note the down sloping 50-week ema * Volume demand levels exist near 80.00, 75.00, 68.00 and 55.00; all can provide a tradable bounce, but only the 55.00 demand area can provide sufficient buyer 'fuel' to launch a sustained bullish trend reversal. * The full-cycle monthly lows for SMH won't occur until late 2019 - early 2020. * OTM credit spreads using 105/100 strikes may be one way to play this near-term action
S
by Cycle19
GBPUSD ONE LAST SUPPORT!Early this week, I've published the cycles of the GBPUSD, and I expected a bullish phase but however we got too many cycles interference because of the current hesitated market status. I'm still on the long side as long as the market is above the last support that stands for any bullish attempts, I'll wait before any bearish view to break the marked level. We have a support level here which comes from different cycles, hope the market find enough momentum to go with these cycles. Follow this idea since I'll update it regularly. Good luck,
by TradingSight-
USDJPY analyzedI've analyzed three cycles in USDJPY 0.03% , in the med-term along with the short-term cycles the market are heading up, but the market will go in a bearish phase ultimately, To be more clear, med-term and short-term cycles will cause what is called "corrections" but the main direction of the market is bearish . you can trade such corrections in the upside safely, and always use broken supports to enter in the direction of the big "RED" cycle. Follow this idea since I'll update it regularly. Good luck, Disclaimer: CFDs are complex instruments and involve high Risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All predictions are strictly speculative and for educational purposes only therefore Use effective risk management.Trading foreign exchange carries a high level of risk.
U
by TradingSight-