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Cycles

Bitcoin Bottoming from Mining Revenue PerspectiveToday I want to focus on 2 fundamental metrics that aim to call Cycle Tops and Cycle Bottoms in Bitcoin: Daily Mining Income (USD) Puell Multiple Calling Bottoms Through the analysis of the USD equivalent Bitcoin Mining Revenue, we can forecast future bottoming areas. When Bitcoin topped in 2013 at $1163, it set the bar for the mining income level around $5.1M a day. And it's meant to be expected that the next BTC cycle 2017-2019 should bottom around a price range that generates this kind of daily mining revenue. This rule has been fulfilled during all the cycles since 2011 with no exception. Well, we know that a bottom between $2500-$3000 would fulfill that condition. Does it mean that BTC cannot move beyond that? Not at all, but certainly it hints that a move below might happen quickly because we would be trading at zones below value. Looking at the Puell Multiple, one might think that the bottoming already happened. Certainly, we're missing significant volume, a significant bounce and the institutional blueprint. But looking at the facts, this indicator has a 100% track record at calling cycle bottoms. Is this time different? Calling Tops The Puell Multiple also works as a proxy for calling Bitcoin Cycle Tops. The metric is pretty simple: Looking forward we'll know that we are about to top, once we exceed 5x-10x the average mining revenue from the last 365 days.
BNC:BLX
by gliderfund
13
Short Bitcoin Into Cycle LowI really held onto this last long position for a long time thinking we were in a good position to move up and have our first cycle high. But this move since the big drop on February 24th just looks like a choppy range. And despite a big drop and impressive recovery on March 4th-5th, we now have gone 5 days sideways, losing the power of that initial momentum. And we consistently get met with heavy selling into this major resistance zone consistently getting rejected. I played around with a small short at that orange line. The green line is a long term trend line I can show in another chart. If we have a jump up a bit more I'll add to my short. I would stop out of this at $3950 1H close because breaking that at this point would set up a move to new highs, which was originally what I was looking for and even hoping for on March 4th. But at this point, failing to get past this area for 2 weeks without breaking this area is just not bullish and more likely we go a cycle low due in about 2-3 weeks.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by rzmb44