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Cycles

July 5 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Low-Volume Above $3,150; $3,200 Balance; Tech Overextension; Weakness In Financials, Energy. Technical: Broad-market equity indices one time framed higher last week, evidenced by the higher highs and lows on the daily time frame, and closed the week off near a resistive low-volume area. Recapping last week’s action, on Monday, the S&P 500 established a higher low, above the year-to-date volume weighted average price, and squeezed on good delta, through resting liquidity at and above $3,020. After Tuesday’s challenge higher, the S&P retested $3,100, a high-volume area, and balanced Wednesday, building value and acceptance of $3,100 as evidenced by the responsive participation intra-day. On Thursday, the U.S. economy added greater than expected payrolls, driving prices higher at the open, before establishing excess and fading to close the gap below. Overall, though extended, the market is at an important technical level. Breaking further into the prior low-volume resistance would point to a change in sentiment, quashing the initiative activity that drove prices lower in the first place. Looking beyond the broad market indices, the innovation-driven, technology-based sectors are extended while relatively weak sectors, such as energy and financials, suggest bigger selling may be around the corner. For a continuation higher, buyers must step up on dips and increase participation in search of higher prices, helping ensure value follows closely behind. Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts. Key Events: Non-Manufacturing Activity; Final Composite And Services PMI; Initial Claims; Wholesale Inventory; PPI; Consumer Credit; JOLTS. Fundamental: The Federal Reserve destroyed price discovery and delayed the inevitable. yhoo.it Boeing Co (NYSE: BA) placed final part orders for its 747 jumbo jets. fxn.ws NYSE:BA General Motors Company’s (NYSE: GM) China quarterly sales dropped 5%. fxn.ws NYSE:GM Global GDP to remain below pre-virus levels through most of next year. bit.ly The Federal Reserve looks to Australia’s central bank for rate strategy. on.wsj.com Airbus SE (OTC: EADSY) close to slashing jobs as output may drop 40%. reut.rs OTC:EADSY Democratic nominee Joe Biden to end most of President Trump’s tax cuts. cnb.cx Royal Dutch Shell plc (NYSE: RDS.A) to cut asset values by up to $22 billion. reut.rs NYSE:RDS.A Lululemon Athletica Inc (NASDAQ: LULU) to buy Mirror for $500 million. bit.ly NASDAQ:LULU By year end, corporate earnings may recover from the pandemic slump. bit.ly Key innovation principles for delivering net-zero emissions, per the IEA. bit.ly Laying out the worst-case scenario, a collapse of the financial system. bit.ly Q2 projections are miserable as average S&P 500 earnings may decline up to 45%. bit.ly The U.S. added 4.8M payrolls, while the unemployment rate shrunk to 11.1%. bit.ly Global refinery utilisation rates in 2021-2024 may be 3% lower relative to 2019. reut.rs Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) beat analyst estimates for Q2 vehicle deliveries. reut.rs NASDAQ:TSLA Brazilian regulators halt Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) payments service. bit.ly NASDAQ:FB Large U.S. banks pass the Fed's stress test, but must submit new capital plans. bit.ly AMEX:XLF ASEAN response mitigated economic damage, but unlikely to offset credit risks. bit.ly Sentiment: 22.2% Bullish, 32.0% Neutral, 45.9% Bearish as of 6/27/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 3,223,157,668 as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Lower) 46% as of 7/2/2020. bit.ly Product Analysis: S&P 500 (ES): TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY Nasdaq 100 (NQ): TVC:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ Russell 2000 (RTY): TVC:RUT AMEX:IWM Gold (GC): AMEX:GLD Crude Oil (CL): AMEX:USO AMEX:DBO AMEX:USL Treasury Bonds (ZB): NASDAQ:TLT Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
Seasonal Long from June rotation into August $DJI $DIAThe end of month rotation of June is upon us. On Friday June 26 we witnessed some very interesting rotations into small caps, cyclicals, and silver. If the virus news does not overwhelm the markets (big players control the news flow) then we have a good possibility of moving up toward the Independence Day holiday and beyond toward the next FOMC in July. The big push comes after that FOMC statement on average and we get a rally in bonds, stocks, gold and silver.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by mortdiggiddy
Seasonality Long from the June rotation into August $DJI $DIAThe end of month rotation of June is upon us. On Friday June 26 we witnessed some very interesting rotations into small caps, cyclicals, and silver. If the virus news does not overwhelm the markets (big players control the news flow) then we have a good possibility of moving up toward the Independence Day holiday and beyond toward the next FOMC in July. The big push comes after that FOMC statement on average and we get a rally in bonds, stocks, gold and silver.
OANDA:US30USDLong
by mortdiggiddy
Bitcoin - The Epic Fight with the Bull Market BarrierHowdy fellow traders! It is the time to be really excited. This is the full story of Bitcoin's battle of the century, a carefully developed piece of TA that has grown over the years. My most recent update was published right before the dump from 10k to 3.6k (). This dump is further proof of the strength that lies behind this analysis. Pre-bull phases over the years Let's start with a look at the pre-bull phases before PA accelerated into a bullrun. 2012: 2016: 2020?: The big questions is of course whether BTC really is in a pre-bull phase right now or if it's 'rolling over'. Many theories trying to identify the market cycle Countless very smart analysts have come up with significant theories around Bitcoin and its market cycles - especially when it comes to post-halving analysis. My analysis doesn't include the Halving or any other events, just plain TA. If I were to add support to their theories by using a different methodology, it'd be quite significant overall. Methodology Over the years, I've come to believe strongly there must be a common denominator for all price action. What determines levels when there are no levels yet - what is creating them? What is the main driver of price discovery? My answer to that question is Fibonacci. After experimenting with indicators and developing them myself on a daily basis for years, I've come to understand that it all breaks down to Fibonacci. It doesn't even matter what kind of instrument you use, Fib Retracement Levels, Extension Tools, whatever..., applying Fib values usually leads to reliable results. But, instead of applying them to static levels, I've decided to dive deeper into the understanding of dynamic levels, namely Bollinger Bands. I've discovered the free indicator 'Fibonacci Bollinger Bands' on Trandingview and started doing experiments with it. But, instead of using the default short-term settings, I've switched over to using mid- to long-term settings in order to identify market cycles, tops and bottoms. Upon experimenting, I've discovered a band of Fib levels that can be considered the 'Bull Market Barrier'. It is a string of Fibonacci Bollinger Bands that is the perfect divider between bear and bull cycles. Applying Fibonacci Bollinger Bands to Pre-Bull Phases 2012: 2016: 2020: Interpretation and current situation From what I can see, this band of Fib-based Bollinger Bands is 100% accurate in telling us when we are in a major bull or bear cycle. It is ridiculously accurate, it gets tested multiple times to the teeth, broken, tested, and the acceleration begins. This reliability is outstanding and it is something I've been investigating until today. So where are we today? Looking at the chart above, we are in our 6th attempt to break the Bull Market Barrier. It is located directly above our current position at 10-10.8k, and it has been for a while, which is the reason why it is suddenly this extreme of a zone. Bitcoin is seemingly preparing another attack as we speak, and out of all the analysts out there, I doubt that it is clear to everybody how important this level is where we are at right now. How did we enter the bull market in 2012 and 2016? In both cases, price action slowed down while it was approaching the band. In 2012, BTC traded a little over 1 month within the band before price broke it to the upside. In 2016, it went a bit differently (see below). Today, we are not as close to the band as before, but BTC is pushing up over and over again, currently in the 6th attempt to break through. This is the first time though we see a stable sideways range directly below the band, which was the case in 2012 and 2016 as well. This stable sideways range made BTC simply grind through that resistance at some point. A major difference to 2016 is that BTC formed that neat triangle seen above, making lower highs and approaching a band that was moving slightly downwards. Today, BTC needs to make a higher high to break the resistance, which is slowly rising. A rising bollinger band is more difficult to break than a declining bollinger band. This means, apart from making a higher high, which will be difficult by simply grinding upwards, BTC also needs to pump against rising resistance. I wonder if this can work out without producing a strong impulse wave up. To summarize Besides the Bull Market Barrier, there is also a Bottoming Zone that has been found to work very accurately. Also, there is a Topping Zone to parabolic bullruns, all determined by the use of the same Fibonacci Bollinger Bands. We are currently slowly approaching the Bull Market Barrier in the same fashion as 2016. Overall picture is bullish. However, if the principle of not longing into resistance was ever worth anything to a trader, this is the moment to abide by that rule. The risk of rejection is still extraordinarily high. I'm happy to share this in time as we are clearly in a zone of extreme pressure right now where a breakout or crazy PA could occure anytime. My final chart is a multi-timeframe Fibonacci Bollinger Band derived heatmap I have developed to identify pressure zones as well as S&R. Thanks for reading and trade safe!
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by FireflyTA
3
Bitcoin Halvings and Market CyclesBitcoin Controlled Supply Bitcoin are “minted” during the creation of each block at a fixed and diminishing rate. Each block, generated on average every 10 minutes, contains entirely new bitcoin, created from nothing. Every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years, the currency issuance rate is decreased by 50%. For the first four years of operation of the network, each block contained 50 new bitcoin. (Book: Mastering Bitcoin 2nd edition, page 215) Genesis Block , block "0", January 3rd 2009 Reward Era #1 Subsidy per block= 50 Btc Blocks {0 — 209999} Btc added= 10,500,000 Btc Halving 1 at block 210000, 28th November 2012 Reward Era #2 Subsidy per block= 25 Btc Blocks {210000 — 419999} Btc added= 5,250,000 Btc Halving 2 at block 420000, 9th July 2016 Reward Era #3 Subsidy per block= 12.5 Btc Blocks {420000 — 629999} Btc added= 2,625,000 Btc Halving 3 at block 630000, 11th May 2020 Reward Era #4 Subsidy per block= 6.25 Btc Blocks {630000 — 839999} Btc added= 1,312,500 Btc Halving 4 at block 840000, ETA May 2024 Reward Era #5 Subsidy per block= 3.125 Btc Blocks {840000 — 1049999} Btc added= 656,250 Btc Aníbal Santaella (@a_santaellas)
BNC:BLX
by anibalsantaella
1