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Cycles

MARKEY CYCLES PSYCHOLOGY | EMOTIONS & COGNITIVE BIASES All markets go through cycles of expansion and contraction. 📈When a market is in an expansion phase (an uptrend), there is a sentiment of optimism, belief, and greed. Typically, these are the main emotions that lead to a strong buying activity. Sometimes, a strong sense of greed and belief overtakes the market in such a way that a financial bubble can form. In such a scenario, many investors become irrational, losing sight of the actual value and buying an asset only because they believe the market will continue to rise. They get greedy and irrational by the impressive bullish movement, expecting to make huge profits. As the market gets heavily overbought, the local top is created. In general, this is considered to be the point of the highest risk. In some cases, the market will start a sideways movement while smart money steadily sells the asset. This is also called the distribution stage . However, some markets don't present a clear distribution stage, and the downtrend starts sharply after the top is reached. ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 📉 When the market starts reversing, the euphoric mood can quickly turn into complacency , as many traders refuse to admit that the uptrend came to an end. As prices continue to fall, the market sentiment quickly moves to the bearish side . It often includes feelings of anxiety, denial, and panic . In this context, by the anxiety we mean the moment when bullish biased market participants start to question why the price is falling, which soon leads to the denial stage . The denial period is marked by a sense of unacceptance. Many investors keep holding their losing positions, either because "it's too late to sell" or because they want still believe that "the market will come back soon." But as the prices drop even lower, the selling wave gets stronger. At this point, fear and panic often lead to what is called a market capitulation (when holders give up and sell their assets close to the local bottom). Eventually, the downtrend stops as the volatility decreases and the market stabilizes. Typically, the market experiences sideways movements before feelings of hope and optimism start arising again. Such a sideways period is called the accumulation stage . ❤️ Please, support this idea with a like and comment! ❤️ ⬇️ Subscribe to my social networks! ⬇️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
16
If Bitcoin is in a bear... How low could it go?The truth is that currently 1) BTC has tested the 300 DMA almost twice and 28-31k more than 5 times which makes support weaker 2) It has lost the 200 DMA 3) It lost its 42k Jan ATH and it turned back into resistance 4) Usually when a correction is larger than usual it means it is over. We went from 20-31% corrections to 55% which is not good. There are other things too, but these are the key ones. Below I have tons of charts based on where we could be heading. Usually 70-80% corrections are more than enough for this to be over, and it could dip very very quickly. This doesn't have to be a very long bear market, however due to the amount of leverage in the market it is possible that we have a major crash and then slowly go back up. Usually in the bear markets the market usually goes all the way down to the key untested levels (you can call the gaps, voids, inefficiencies or whatever you want). But most of the time these act like magnets and as support when the price visits those levels. We can see how Bitcoin has reacted in all the previous bull markets. In 2014 it pulled back below its April 2013 high and tested some levels there and at the April 2013 crash it revisited multiple untested levels. In 2018 we didn't have many of those so it was a different bear market, but in 2019-2020 we had a drop down to 6400 which was very important and then crash down to 3.8k. 3.8-4.2k was a very important level because it was where the run up begun + was a massive resistance that turned into support + S1 pivot + Volume profile high volume node + 234 week moving average (1638 DMA) which was also the bottom twice in 2014-2015. The last one is a very important moving average along with the 200 WMA (1400 DMA) from which the price has never really closed below in on a weekly timeframe. Now most gaps on CME on the actual chart are at - 24k, 20k, 17.5-19k (gaps only) and the best area which tons of support because of old resistance levels, the weekly moving averages and being 80% below the ATH is 12-14k. So if this is more like a mix of June 2019 and April 2013, we could expect to see the price go that deep. In my opinion Bitcoin is already undervalued, but I wouldn't be surprised if we see something like the Boeing chart. Big drop, flush all the leverage and then go much much higher. The thing this time around is that we went too high too fast in a very weird way as retail, companies and institutions rushed in but the whole market was in a weird state with Covid, QE and so on. Maybe the bottom is in and if we go above the 200 DMA I will become bullish again... but until then I am cautious because this looks more bearish than bullish. s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com s3.tradingview.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitcoinMacro
1
GOLD maybe an expanding flat pattern on wave (B)(cyan). 28/5/21GOLD possible is forming an expanding flat pattern on wave (B)(Cyan/light blue).. Maybe now we are at wave A (yellow) first leg down of the expanding flat pattern, where price could reach @ around 1845 ( which is support/resistance flip zone and the long term down trend lines breakout zone becoming support area ) .before resuming its uptrend @ around 1950 (major supply & Resistance zone ) for wave B (yellow) and finally last leg down for wave C (yellow) @ around 1780 which is daily 200 EMA deviation and demand zone.. xyz3dtrading
FX:XAUUSD
by SteveTan
1
BTC June-September seasonalityA quick overview of historic summer price action. Keeping a bullish bias for now, though I'm not expecting a new ATH during summer months as the October.20 -> April.21 uptrend ran a bit hot. What would make me OMEGA bullish: - sudden massive green candle with spike in volume following a great catalyst (news/announcement); - successfull taproot lock mid-June; - another breakdown towards the $26k area before BTC attempts to move up to the $50k area, as I would expect huge buying volume to activate bellow $29k. Stablecoin supply at exchanges is at an impressive all-time high right now; - GBTC premium turning positive again; - more free money/stimuli directly handed out to citizens in developed nations. After all the recent FUD I believe only a serious downturn in speculative assets could push Bitcoin into a bear market before Q3/Q4. Paying attention to equity markets and FED policy changes is a good idea right now. Gold gaining during the recent BTC drop worries me a bit, mainly because it's not a good sign for speculative markets when investors are rotating into a safe haven asset amidst a bull market. I share the opinion that we're in the final stretch of the 'Everything bubble' but am still not convinced that price inflation of goods/services will somehow shoot BTC to the moon. Businesses and lifelyhoods are still getting rekt and announcing an end to the scamdemic soon will mean government/c.bank assistance will also end - if life becomes more expensive most people will probably not have free cash to invest in speculative assets. This will change in a hyperinflationary scenario, as I believe Michael Burry is spot on with his prediction, but right now am convinced that central bankers will implement their centralized surveillance coins before they lose control of their fiat currencies. In any case, keep stacking sats whenever you feel the price is fair, we are still so early.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Kalchev
1
Bitcoin - Global channel + CyclesGlobal channel I looked at the logarithmic chart and saw: a global uptrend channel, the upper line of which we tested and did not breakout. Bitcoin at the threshold of a new big cycle, which is a little over a year long. After that, Bitcoin made a dropped by 50% from the peak and reached the previous correction's support level. Now BTC has rebounded and is trading at 25% from the local low. The current local resistance level is 41k. The long-term magnet is the middle line of the ascending channel and the peak of 2018 (the 20k level, maybe lower). It is important to note that this is a global vision, not a short-term one. To my mind, speaking about short-term perspective, there will be a rebound to be sure after such a fall. I understand that there are many newcomers on the market now. The last fall was a shock for the majority of traders. I want to give a little advice (read below). 1. Calculate your future compulsory expenses for the next 6 months minimum. 2. Compare them with the available one the amount in stablecoins and cash. 3. If there is no pillow in stable assets for at least 6 months falling market then cover the part on rollbacks up positions to form a pillow for expenses for at least 6 months. 4. If there is, then all the same sort out portfolio and sell on rollbacks up those assets, in fundamental, values and survivability on potential bear market which you doubt very much. Summary: Your risky part of a cryptocurrency portfolio should consist only of fundamental assets with a high probability of gaining a network effect. You have enough money for at least 6 months. You are not motivated to sell assets at the bottom. We are ready to sit out any drawdown. You should understand that sooner or later your assets will cost more. You can safely continue living a normal life without checking the charts every few minutes. You realize that no matter what happens - you have the money for a good life and a portfolio of quality assets for financial independence. I do not want to give you false hope. Trading is not easy and risky. A trader earns big money when trading in the main trend direction. I expect a flat movement on the market shortly. This is the time when most people are losing money. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
26
Imminent Downtrend with Price Target of 108Apple's CEO may be defending its business model in court, but on paper and on the graph, Apple is faring very well. However, the market dynamics doesn't care much about fundamentals when it cones to cycles. Forming a Bollinger Bang squeeze at the weekly chart, the squeeze is about to release the tension the coming week. To determine whether this would drive the price up on down, I took the following criteria into consideration: Candlestick patterns of the current range are bearish biased with long wicks on the top. There's a clear Evening Star at the top most price, usually indicating a reversal int he trend. Fibonacci retracements indicate that we are exactly at the edge of a major resistance, the second extension level. The market, speciall NASDAQ, is about to have a cyclic correction as well. Fundamental events have nothing to do with this but of course analysts will attribute the downturn to the court saga. The price target is 108 in acouple of months, but the price will get a bit lower first. My forecast is that this is a good short-term sell opportunity.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by MontyMacht
2