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Cycleanalysis

Get ready for Friday ;-)XRP is in corrective phase of nested cycles and this spike from 1'st of January indicates that there's more pain to come. I personally see this move as some speculative dump caused by 3'rd party with huge number of tokens and it can be potential "early" bottom of this cycle. Nevertheless, corrective phase is still not finished and by end of the week we might finally form a trough. Personally, I'm not expecting new lower-low, rather test of .30 spike. Buy zones: Fib ext: 0.618-0.786 @ $.32 - $.30 Fib ext: 0.786-1.000 @ $.30 - $.288 Buy timing: Between 1/9 - 1/19, ideal cycle bottom Friday night! Support with XRP: rNCUtwqnsKa3k5poB5WYDirhwhcoyr9W7D
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by rafal_w
3
BTC: One more month of sideways action?BTC is moving with 80 day long cycle, last cycle was negative ( late November ) and current cycle seems to be very weak, we already had rejection from 0.386 level and for now it's quite boring. Technically we are already in small 40-day cycle which should form a bottom between 2/9- 2/24. In the beginning of February, I'm expecting corrective phase of cycle and visit of Fib-extensions levels marked with 0-A-B. Buy zones: Fib ext. 500 - .618 @ 15335 - 14680 Fib ext. 618 - .786 @ 14680 - 13670 Regardless of price action pay attention to timing, second week of February should trigger some bullish impulse. Support with XRP: rNCUtwqnsKa3k5poB5WYDirhwhcoyr9W7D
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by rafal_w
1
GOLD NATURE PREDICITON | 8-JAN-2023By looking at the week TF chart I analyzed the following things that I want to share: 1. Duration of the first double top was 567 days 2. Duration of descending channel was 238 days 3. Formed a bullish rally (approx 76% up) of 21 months by breaking a major resistance level 4. Duration of the second double top was 574 days 5. Duration of descending channel was 238 days again So the market manipulators (Big Boys) hopefully will move the market upside Let's see what happens
OANDA:XAUUSD
by hassamsaeed
2
The Anatomy of the TLT; Cycle analysis by ThestructuredThis is my dissection of the TLT chart into the classic stages of a bubble, with time cycles. Each stage is present and the TLT appears to be in a bottoming process. I'm a big fan of using Fib channels combined with time cycles, because with fib channels, you are looking for a certain line to get hit, wherever that may be, as opposed to traditional fib retracements and extensions where you are looking for exact numbers. I find that with regular fibs, price often overshoots or undershoots them, whereas using a channel, it is more so a time based touch of a line, which si why it works so well with time cycles. Last year I had used these fib channels and cycles to find the current bottom on the TLT, which was an exact touch of the 161.8, right at a (red) time cycle trough region, and also at a strong volume profile node. There are larger, converging cycle troughs shown which should be somewhere in the September area of 2023. It is unclear at this time whether that region will be a higher low, or 'the bottom' (assuming that the 92 area wasn't already 'the' bottom, which it might have been. In any case, I am planning on investing this fall in that major trough zone, regardless of if price is higher or lower than it is now, when that timing region comes. Disclaimer: These charts and posts are a reflection of my own analysis and opinions based on my own analysis. I could be wrong, nothing is guaranteed, and my posts are for educational purposes only, as they are my own pure speculation, and should not be taken as investment advice of any kind. Do you own DD!
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by thestructured
Paypal stock in a final bottoming processPaypal stock appears to be in the final bottoming process of its bubble crash pattern. While I personally have not owned or traded this stock since July of 2022, the time cycles on the chart have not been changed since that time, and yet continue to show accuracy. The larger red cycle is a zone, and if the stock pulls back a bit just before earnings, I will be tempted to average in since I missed the smaller white cycle trough that just passed which led to a $10 parabolic squeeze already.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by thestructured
1
10 more days of consolidation.XRP is quite cyclic in past few months, we can clearly see 61 day dominant cycle. Previous trough formed in mid Nov is quite important right now, we are still 12 days away from ideal next trough and 0.786 was already violated what indicates that we can expect test of that low. I personally expect rather sideways action in next week or two with potential buy zone taken from fibonacci extensions levels between XYZ. Timing: Trought should be formed between 9'th and 19'th of Jan. Buy zone 1: between 0.33-0.34 Buy zone 2: between 0.32-0.33 Support with XRP: rNCUtwqnsKa3k5poB5WYDirhwhcoyr9W7D
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by rafal_w
2
The Exit - How to take profitsToday’s content: 1. Why each exit is within 3 months? 2. Why I turn from investing to trading the US markets since Jan 2022 and onwards If you have been following, today’s is the 6th tutorial in our Trading Series: 1. “The buy strategy” 2. “The sell strategy” 3. “Developing long & short-term view” 4. “Choosing between the time frame” 5. “The entry” 6. “The exit” Refer to the links below or check the previous 5 videos. E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.25 point = $5 1 point = $20 10 points = $200 100 points = $2,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
4
Bitcoin MFI Weekly (50 period)MFI (Money Flow Index) period adjustment. The default setting is 14-periods, but this can be adjusted to suit analysis needs. A shorter timeframe makes the indicator more sensitive. A longer timeframe makes it less sensitive. Given the less sensitive, the extreme measure are more prone to real Money Flow. Bitcoin Cycle MFI Lows Observe the MFI Period at 50 for smooth sensitive on the weekly. - 2012 $3 difference from cycle low ($2 -$5) reading of 40.05 - 2015 Cycle low triggered from MFI reading of 39.54 - 2018 Cycle low (2 week variance) triggered again from MFI a reading of 39.44 - 2022 MFI just triggered another 39.03 Note: 2018 had bullish divergence on the proceeding 2 weeks after 39.44 reading printed. - Average reading of 39.5125 over the years
INDEX:BTCUSD
by LiquidMafia
1
Cycle compare BTC VS NetflixHi @everyone, Here another BTC cycle comparison to our previous one. Cycles wont repeat excactly but markets are driven trough humen emotions (Fear and Greed), thats why they rhyme often. This is why many cycles have an indentical fractal onces you zoomed out and ignore the low timeframe noice. as a previous cycle doesnt give u any guerantee that it will do the axact same thing, it wil give you a kind of guide into your long term investment portfolio's, by learning to reconize how cycle bottems and tops are formed it wil give you an edge over the competition into making live changing decisions. - Be there when others look away, the pain of an bearmarket is just temporary. - Never invest more then you are willing to lose, you will sleep well at night. - Having patiënt and a long term view is a must if you want to trade/invest. Cheers, Team Quantisic
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Quantistic
3
This indicator could say that we hit the bottomLooking at the Anchored VWAP Indicator (Volume Weighted Average Price) Each time using the previous cycle bottom from the last cycle. (2015 and 2018) It could represent something significant, return to the average, meaning the bull and bear cycles are done, and the long term trend continues, unless we enter a long term perma bear trend territory ofcourse, but if nothing fundamental has changed with crypto, I don't know yet why the long term trend would reverse, fear will turn to greed eventually.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Tradelive
BTC cycle based Wave CountsThis is our macro view on BTC based on cycle based wave counts. --> BTC is in the final leg down of a full macro corrective wave 4, nobody knows what the excact low would be. Based on wavecounts, Fibonacci extension + retracement targets the most confluence is founded in the 13-11.5k zone (also the launchepad of the previous bullrun) with an potential overshoot towards 10k We dont want to try buy the exact bottem, we always waiting to get conformation on a bottem formation or we buying at prices where we feel comfort with to hold for the next wave up. --> BTC never was able to make new ATH's before the halving date. The next logical top should be in 2025 This is just one of the many scenario's we could think of, along the way with having more chart data our vieuw on this TA could change. On wich prices are you feeling comfort to buy in without having any regret over the next years? What is your trade plan? Cheers, Team Quantistic
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Quantistic
8
Gold has already started the new bullish cycleMedium-term Gold forecast. The corrective cycle that started 2 years ago has finally ended, and we have already started the new bullish cycle. This cycle is wave 5 (orange) and is expected to reach at least the 2,100 level. We bought Gold when the price was in the Inflection Zone (green area). At this moment, we are risk-free and waiting for the confirmation of the bullish sequence to try to enter again, targeting smaller timeframes corrective cycles. We will keep you posted when this opportunity appears. Have a fantastic trading day.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TradingtheRightSide
GBPUSD Selling opportunityHello traders, Today we want to share our view of the GBPUSD. The long-term cycle is bearish and we believe there will be at least one more swing low or, in other words, another bearish cycle. This idea has the target of taking profit from this bearish cycle, There are two potential paths as we showed in the graph 1- Our forecast is that GBPUSD will have to make another high before reaching the green area (which is the expected target the corrective structure WXY should reach before turning down) and then, we will sell GBPUSD 2- Alternative path- The price will not reach the area and GBPUSD has already ended 4 and it will start this last bearish cycle before reaching the green area In both cases, in the medium term, we expect GBPUSD to go down. Therefore, we can prepare in shorting the GBPUSD soon. TRS team
Short
by TradingtheRightSide
Bear Market, Bull Market, or Sector Rotation? KNOW THE ROTATION! What Is Sector Rotation? Investors are always looking for opportunities to boost returns and reduce risk in their portfolios. One way to do this is by understanding and utilizing sector rotation. In simple terms, sector rotation is the process of moving money from one sector to another. In order to take advantage of positive market trends investors will want to pay close attention to these rotations. In general, there are two types of market conditions that investors need to be aware of: bull markets and bear markets. Sector rotation is a strategy that investors use to take advantage of these market conditions. The idea is to rotate your investments into sectors that are doing well in the current market conditions and away from sectors that are not. For example, in a historical bull market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as technology and healthcare. In a bear market, you would want to be invested in sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Sector rotation can be a helpful tool for investors to boost returns and reduce risk. However, it’s important to understand how it works before implementing it in your own portfolio. Keep reading to learn more about sector rotation and some current YTD chart examples of what it looks like. Lets start with a philosophical question in regards to the market; is there really such thing as a bull and bear market? One could argue that there is not, and the market is in fact a cycle of sector rotations. Liquidity going out one, to another, again and again. Take for example the 4 tickers of the main post image MSFT , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:GOOGL , NASDAQ:AAPL - these are considered Tech Stocks (yes TSLA is a tech stock!). YTD performance of all these stocks are in the red. Please take the time and study their trends. To the novice that had a portfolio made up of 80% tech, they would look at this chart and scream BEAR MARKET. But is it? It is impossible for the average trader to tell, but not all that money was "lost" in a bear market. It simply was rotated to defensive sectors. Sure, some money was taken out of the overall system I am sure but logic dictates that the majority of the money just found a new home. Investors in tech in these cases could ride the storm and average down (dollar cost averaging), write call options, or purchase puts (along with many other strats) - aka play a bear market in THAT sector. The terms "bull" and "bear" market are used to describe market conditions where prices are either rising or falling. Some people believe that there is a fundamental difference between the two types of markets, while others believe that they are simply two sides of the same coin. Ultimately, there is no right or wrong answer, and it is up to each individual to decide what they believe. So where did the Tech money rotate to? For those of you that need only bull markets to trade, find the rotation and follow it. Never marry a stock or sector - money moves fast and is prone to jumping ship when major events happen. Here are 3 charts that show areas that bulls have had success: EX1: Staples and Consumer; NYSE:HSY , NYSE:MCD , NASDAQ:OLLI , NYSE:WMT EX2: Energy, Industrial, Insurance; NYSE:KMI , NYSE:CAT , NYSE:OXY , NYSE:ABBV EX3: Defensive and Insurance; NASDAQ:HON , NYSE:RTX , NYSE:AFL , NYSE:CI If you take the time and study the charts above you will see that not all is bearish when you know where to look. Looking at these rotations can start to paint a larger picture when studying ETFs or the overall market in a national/global economy. Especially when it comes to finding a fair value area in the middle of a downed market. Recovery off of a bear market should be equitable across multiple sectors. In the current case (today) we see that the rotation into "defensive" stocks (all the stocks mention in EX1, EX2, and EX3). As there is a small pinch of hope that inflation could be slowing, the moves have been liquidity into these defensive sectors - not a sign of a healthy recovery (yet) in my opinion. Right now we are seeing more institutional interest in companies like HSY, MRK, CI, HON and less interest in Energy. Energy is a great sector to look at currently to start to see that shift. We can look at commodities like GOLD and see the increased attention and bullish run it has had recently. Remember, intuitions want to create the largest positions they can , but over time so as not to raise a flag to others. To find sector rotation: 1) Familiarize yourself with the S&P sector funds like the AMEX:XLF , AMEX:XLP , AMEX:XLE , AMEX:XLU , etc START LARGE - look at the Monthly, Weekly, and Daily 2) Scan for stocks with rapid price drops and identify sectors that may be hurting 3) Scan for stocks with rapid rising price WITH higher than average volume (preferable increasing volume as well) 4) Visualize the sectors in a heatmap. Size by Volume (Monthly) and Color by Performance (Monthly). Since this is constantly changing, I suggest taking a screen shot of this map every week - this will be the best way to "see" the money rotate. 5) When going through 2-4 consider comparing small and large cap companies as well - as this too can hold its own rotation. 6) Stay on top of news, read read read read. Understand the world around you and rely on change. 7) Utilize Smart Money Concepts. Please visit LUX ALGO's page for this, as he has made a beautiful indicator and strategy based around SMI and institutional order blocks. 8) Conduct an RSI or Stochastic RSI study to identify divergences in OVERBOUGHT or OVERSOLD conditions. 9) VIX VIX VIX - yes we are talking sector rotation and the VIX is an "overall" reflection of the market in whole but looking at areas of the VIX (ie 20 and 45) can give signs of upcoming rotation. Although it may not point where, it may describe when these rotations can occur. If you like this post and would like a more detailed follow up, please comment below so I can see your interest. This is a very extensive topic in which it may take several posts to fully write out in detail. This is post 1 and meant to be an introduction, as I know that almost every line below can be heavily expanded upon. Happy trading everyone!
NASDAQ:MSFT
by OccamsPhazer