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Cycleanalysis

Silver looks having topped in a corrective bounceAccording to principle of synchronicity proposed by JM Hurst, from time to time several distinctive cycles reach their respective bottoms simultaneously. In other words, cycles get aligned at bottoms or troughs. However, cycles reach their peaks in asynchronous way! This is why when we deal with a big cycle topping normally it creates a string of multiple peaks. I marked up those triple tops with red arrows for you. Imagine a train with several trucks that goes over a bridge and then goes down the bridge. And those trucks reach the top of the bridge one by one. This is exactly how cycles reach their peaks! That means that you should not expect a strong rally to turn down on a dime right after the first topping signal. You may consider two first topping signals as quick short opportunities and wait for the third topping signal to build a swing short position. The red horizontal lines are levels of resistance produced by peaks of different cycles. The thickest red lines are those that come from the strongest cycles that move price on higher timeframes. Quite often those strong cycles would NOT be the last to top or bottom! Quite often the last one to top would be a micro cycle from a lower timeframe. What I see as a good shorting setup is when price overshoots the resistance of a thick red line, a resistance printed by a cycle from the highest timeframe and hits a micro resistance of a minor cycle.
COMEX:SI1!
by CastAwayTrader
How To Spot Economical Cycles Top Using [DXY- SPX and VIX] Hi Everyone In this video I want to share an overview of the importance of economic cycles for traders and investors and how we can use Trading View charts with no indicators to figure out key economic signals on the following charts: DXY tops for the end of previous bear markets VIX normal ranges vs Bear cycles ranges The Dow Jones Industrial average is another key chart with SPY charts because everyone has a 401K retirement account these days and people are use to the headlines of the Dow Jones Industrial Average new highs and new lows to shift emotionally between despair and exuberance. It's not unusual for people to throw in the towel just as the market begins to rise in the next economic cycle. As a student of the markets, you need to know when it's time to load up on bargain priced assets and ride the next cycle up and when it is time to slowly sell or fade into the tops of the markets and avoid the downturns. Are we in a normal healthy correction 10-20% or are we heading toward the Great Depression type 50% correction from the top? These charts will help you answer the question. Mastering the market and economic cycles is the key to becoming wealthy in all asset classes - Stocks, Real Estate, and Cryptos Hope it helps... @Marc
CAPITALCOM:DXYEducation
by PowerIndicators
7
BTC Meta-Cycle Completion in SightIt's been a rocky (and likely stressful for those who are not properly hedged against negative BTC price movement) few months for crypto, but here's my take on the situation for BTC/USD So there's some good news and bad news, and neutral news. Bad news first : There's definitely more to go, we haven't completed the cycle just yet and smart money knows a better entry point is incoming. Now the good news! The end of the cycle is in sight. In neutral news: We can predict this cycle because we're almost completely done with it, but we have no indication of what the next cycle will bring. My belief is that it will be a generally bullish but highly volatile period as smart & big money enters near the bottom, shakes out retail, forms new local tops/bottoms, shakes out retail again, rinse, repeat, until we see a bullish confirmation (listed in point 3.) Why do I think the bottom is not in? 1. Oscillators indicate a very strong continuing bear trend on 1D, 12H, 6H. It does appear to be slowing in momentum, but not price direction. 2. Money Flow Double Top: This indicates that traders were as interested in BTC @ $40k as they were at $35k. Although a drop in capital inflow (MFI) indicates retail traders are at the whim of market conditions (aka. continuation of trend to cycle completion) it also means there is a lack of capital to reverse the current trend. New capital at a bottom is a prerequisite for a reversal. Cycle Completion: Cycle completion for any "mature" (blue-chip) asset generally occurs at the average closing price upon which the current meta-trend was realized (confirmation in Jan 2021 that close above 2017 ATH was "real", allowing capital to safely enter the market. 3. A trend reversal that continues to close up through $31k past $34k without closing below $31k during the time of that trend . Would a) invalidate the current projection, and b) provide confirmation that capital can safely enter the market for positive gains.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by HeyJonBray
When is Best time to Buy and Sell Bitcoin #BTC #CRYPTOCURRENCYIn this chart i will look what has happened and break down: -Best time to buy/sell Bitcoin -Percentage gains -What are things to consider for the next cycle -What have we learned from this cycle (3rd Halving) If we look closely, we see that if we buy Bitcoin at the Halving on every 4 year cycle and hold for 1 year, we would have received the best return on our investment (of course, not counting if you bought in the very beginning and still holding). If you don't know what Bitcoin Halving is, please look it up because it is an important phenomenon. What percentages have we seen over the past 3 Halving? -1st Halving Bitcoin would have returned the most: ~10000% -2nd Halving would have returned: ~5000% -3rd Halving would have returned : ~800% -What are things to consider for the next cycle/Halving? As you can see, every Halving the percentage gain decreases. This is true for everything. The early on investors take the biggest risks, but they have the highest rewards. How can we tell for sure that the cycle is over? No one can time the market so the best thing for an investor is to do it is own research and have a plan of when to enter and when to exit. People often asked me how did you do? Well, last time (2017) I was fooled and held and it crashed, but this time around i bought it early on and sold 75% at 50k and left the rest to run. All my friends keep joking about how I would miss the biggest profits because BTC would go to 100k or 300k. When it comes to trading or investment, profits are profits and we must take them along the way. If the word: HOPE ever crosses our mind, it is time to sell or not enter the market at all. HOPE does not exist in trading. We must have a plan on when do we enter and when do we exit. You are in either for the long term and handle all the Ups and Downs or you are in for short term trading. You must find your niche. -What have we learned from this cycle? For sure the biggest learning lesson for me came with which coins returned the most. Useless Coins with no purpose like Dogecoin, Shiba, Safemoon, etc returned the most if we followed the masses and got in and out. What we will see in the next cycles will be the same. If we want to get 10x returns, we can scalp what is the news / reddit's / youtube's hottest topics and make some attempts to find another Coin that will boom. Small investments earlier on could return big time. I also learned that when the masses are too excited about something, we need to be cautions. In the end 2017, the Winklevoss twins were all over the news how they became the first Crypto Billionaires and how we could also become Millionaires with Crypto. Shortly after, the dumping started. This time around, I was prepared. Around April 2021, I was seeing every where discussions about how to turn 1k into 10k and 10k into 100k, Professionals quitting their jobs to become full time Crypto traders. When these type of news start circulating, we need to be cautions. I started slowing down my investments, taking more profits and started taking the backseat. We now see that the speculators are out and the bull market is over. Best now is to trade short term patterns and wait for the next big opportunity around May 2024. How will I prepare myself for the next time around? One think that became very notable is the new Coins that were created since 2017: Ethereum, ADA, IOTA, BNB, Solana, etc. If we take Ethereum as an example, we notice that while Bitcoin returned ~800% this Halving Cycle, Eth returned ~1500% and ADA and BNB over 2000%. So what this tells us is that Alt coins will be the highest risks, but the highest rewards. Another very interesting point to make is that 2014, 2018 and most likely 2022 will be the worse returning years for Crypto, however, as you can see in my Chart, I drew trendlines in Red that showed that once Price breaks the Trendlines Upwards, a new accumulation and cycle begins. So waiting for the trendlines to break would be the best time to start accumulating. It is also worth noting that even with good timing to enter the market, you can see in purple that no one can predict unexpected Events like the Coronavirus that pretty much tanked all the markets. Bitcoin dropped ~50% in a couple of weeks. Successful Investing is the ability to manage risk and foresee possible opportunities in the near or further future, prepare ourselves and take the risk when the opportunity presents itself. Invest safe and Happy trading. As always, appreciate the like, comments and share.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ppatrading101
BLX Analitics 0.02BTC on a macro scale (weekly logarithmic) Seems to have found, by stretching its cycles over time, an interesting new resistance in its bull markets. It seems that the 100MA on this chart is beginning to take on real relevance as these cycles have stretched out. --------------- BTC en escala macro (semanal logarítmica) Parce haber encontrado mediante el estiramiento de sus ciclos con el paso del tiempo, una nueva resistencia interesante en sus mercados alcistas. Parece que la 100MA de este gráfico empieza a tomar verdadera relevancia al haber estirado estos cilcos. Le prestaremos más ojo como soporte y resistencia para las nuevas formaciones del gráfico, las mayores escalas siempre descifran las verdaderas intenciones y fuerzas de un mercado.
BNC:BLX
by AVNGL01
GBPAUD Trade Idea - Elliott WaveLet’s discuss the price chart of the GBPAUD currency pair based on the 480 minute timeframe. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price has completed the 5 wave impulse sequence down on April 5. From that point, we have been trading higher in a corrective formation which appears to be carving out a W, X, Y pattern. From the Hurst Cycles perspective, the composite model line which measures the combined cyclical pressure, bottomed on April 3 (green vertical line), and is projected to form a top on June 17. Based on this, we can expect prices to move higher after the minor X (circle) is complete, which should be within the next few days or so at the latest. The price should continue until it reaches a distance equivalent to that traveled in wave W (circle). If you find this analysis useful, make sure to press the “Like” button and Follow us.
Long
by ForexTrainingGroup
2
EURGBP Trade Idea - Elliott WaveLet’s discuss the price chart of the EURGBP currency pair based on the 480 minute timeframe. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price action has recently completed an ending diagonal triangle formation. The price is trading within Wave 3 (circle). The most recent retracement is approaching a 78% Fibonnaci level. From the Hurst Cycles perspective, the composite model line which measures the combined cyclical pressure, bottomed on April 1 (1st vertical line), and is projected to form a top on April 29 (2nd vertical line). Based on this, we can expect prices to find support at or near the current level and start trading higher towards the 0.8599 level which is the next major resistance area. If you find this analysis useful, make sure to press the “Like” button and comment.
Long
by ForexTrainingGroup
1
HOW-TO: Cycle analysis helps to detect important turning pointsThe concept of cycle analysis has enourmous power to detect and project important points in time when markets might turn. Cycles work in the time domain and therefore offer additional value to technical analysis. As technical analysis is mainly driven by price, cycle analysis offers a view on another parameter: Time. The most important situations occur when time-based cycle projects come into alignment with price-based technical analysis. Therefore, every trader and analyst should also pay attention to time-based cycle analysis. My objective is to offer tools and improved technical indicators on this platform to combine cycle analysis with technical analysis to help in detecting important turning point. This idea is a summary and real-case example on how time-based cycles gave us the exact pre-information on the expected market top during the period October 2021 to 2022. All has been freely avaiable to the public without any need for subscribtion. Check the signature link. Time-based analysis requires additional tools which are not available directly on TradingView yet. Therefore we must reference additional tools to detect relevant cycles. The public announcements based on time-based cycle analysis on the global markets are labled on the chart "Weekly Cycles Rolling Over" (Oct.2021) and "The Calm before the next Wave" (Jan.2022). Look for "The clam before the next wave" via the signature link. They are freely available for your review and have been posted in advance. We will continue to bring more and more of our cycle tools directly to the TV platform, as Pine will allow us to do so. Once you know the dominant cycle (length), you can use this information to improve your technical analysis on the price chart. I do provide different free indicators here on the TradingView platform which are free to use in your own analysis. Please see the linked related ideas which provide access to these indicators for your own free usage. The key is do use the known dominant cycle as input for these indicators. Once the "correct" input is given - these indicators will reduce noise and will make the turns visible on the price chart. The following example is using one of the indicators available here on the TradingView platform. The cyclic tuned RSI indicator: 1) The first indicator signal occured already in May 2021 when to signal line crossed below the dynamic upper band of the cyclic smoothed RSI indicator. While the weekly cRSI is also overbought, indicated by the red background. However, this technical signal occured not in the projected timing window which was given by the dominant cycles. The cycles still have been in their upswing phase on the weekly and daily cycles. So at point (1) we had a technical sell signal. Which was not confirmed by time-based cycles. Time and price have not come into alignment. 2) The second indicator signal (sell) occured in November 2021. When the signal line touched the upper band and reversed, while the weekly cycles have been in overbought situation (red background). This time now is different because the time-based cycles have rolled over! The upswing cycle phase has ended. This was published based on the the time-based cycle analysis "Weekly S&P500 cycles rolling over" on October 2021. So now we have an alignment of the technical cyclic tuned indicator and confirmed by the weekly cycles which have rolled over now indicating a time-based top. Price and time based cycles have come into alignment. There is no misinterpretation possible. There are no other sell signals or buy signals following this method. A clear top/sell signal in November 2021, after the time-based cycle analysis was published in October 2021. 3) The third indicator signals (sell) occured around 12. Jan. 2022, once the divergence between price and the indicator top has become visible. This price cycle signal (divergence) was supported by the time-based cycle analysis published on 18th January, labled "the calm before the next wave". This time, again daily time-based cycles and price cycles from the shown indicator have come into alignment. Again a clear signal that after the weekly cycles (see #2) now the daily cycles have joined the bearish camp confirmed by the divergence signal at the same time on the price chart. Thats how you can use cycles to improve your trading skills. Join the livestream to discuss the analysis and how it can be used on the TradingView chart: www.tradingview.com
XETR:DAXEducation
by StockMarketCycles
24
IoTeX - To the moon ? - based on log chart channelEverything is in the chart... Disclaimers: !! This is not an investment advice and you shouldn't follow this setup !! !! Never invest/trade with more money than you can afford to loose !! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ That's pretty much it! don't forget to ask if you have any questions! If you want to follow me on this long journey ahead of us, you can support me by subbing and liking the post ! -Credits to xtekky-
Long
by xtekky
ES and NQ - broke out overnight driven by 4 hr Up CycleOb Feb 3 we got a new cyclical support on 240 min charts of ES and NQ. On Feb 4 bears tested it two times and failed to break under it. Then price turned back up strongly and has been pushing price higher. Overnight both indices broke over 60 min resistance, jumped over resistance but then came back down and retested the broken-resistance-turned-support from above. Then price turned back up again and accelerated its move up. Today we should expect a pullback making a higher low printing a new cyclical support (over the broken resistance on 60 min charts ) together with the Strong Buy signal. That would be the next attractive trading setup.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CastAwayTrader